Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition; Nielsen on preferred Labor leader

GhostWhoVotes reports that Galaxy and Nielsen have dipped toes into the murky polling waters, the former with a complete set of results and the latter with numbers on preferred Labor leader. Galaxy’s poll was conducted yesterday and today, and the voting intention figures are essentially unchanged on the previous poll four weeks ago: the Coalition two-party preferred lead is unchanged at 54-46, from primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor (unchanged), 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one) and 12 per cent for the Greens (unchanged). Interestingly, a question on voting intention if Kevin Rudd were Labor leader has produced far less dramatic results than when Nielsen conducted a similar exercise last September. The Coalition lead would narrow to 51-49, a three-point improvement in Labor’s position rather than the 10-point improvement in Nielsen.

On preferred Labor leader, Nielsen has it at 58-34 in Rudd’s favour (it was 57-35 at the poll a fortnight ago) compared with 52-26 from Galaxy (52-30 a month ago), suggesting the two were doing different things with respect to allocating respondents to the undecided category. Galaxy’s result points to a dramatic swing in favour of Rudd among Labor supporters, from 49-48 in Gillard’s favour a month ago to 53-39 in Rudd’s favour now. That the shift among all voters is less dramatic presumably suggests that support for Rudd among Coalition supporters has dropped.

The Galaxy poll also finds that 57 per cent believe the independents should force an early election if Rudd becomes leader, but it is not clear how many would prefer that in any case. Full tables from Galaxy here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

670 comments on “Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition; Nielsen on preferred Labor leader”

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  1. Smithe @ 632,

    Meant to mean that people gravitate towards the colder climates and therefore greater stimulation for the mind. There are not so many distractions etc for the mind. Didn’t mean where they were born. Then again, Tasmania counters that argument. Only joking.

    Abbott couldn’t be happy with any of these polls as no real bounce for them so it can only got tougher for him from here.

  2. David Brooks in the NYT:
    [We Americans cherish our myths. One myth is that there is more social mobility in the United States than in Europe. That’s false. Another myth is that the government is smaller here than in Europe. That’s largely false, too. We’re just better at hiding it. The Europeans provide welfare provisions through direct government payments. We do it through the back door via tax breaks.]

  3. Polls say nothing we didn’t already know re more popular leader.
    Given that Rudd is the more popular choice, there must be a damn good reason why caucus is about to comfortably return Gillard as leader and therefore PM. There must be a damn good reason why Roxon came out yesterday and said she won’t serve in a Rudd Government.

    All the stuff coming out about the dysfunctional way Rudd approached the PMship are the reason why Rudd will never return as leader.

  4. [ Jaeger
    Posted Saturday, February 25, 2012 at 7:01 am | Permalink
    Kirby @ 628:
    Yep; Abbott is probably spewing that Rudd has appropriated “his” attack lines. He will have to find some new material for the election……….]

    Regrettably, no he won’t. He’ll be rubbing his hands with glee that so senior a Labor figure is mouthing and thus confirming his attack lines.

    They’re out there now, in the public commons, and some clever little Tory Dickie will no doubt stitch-together a series of 30-second grabs of Rudd condemning Gillard as an untrustworthy plotter and schemer or whatever for use as an election ad (written and spoken by K Rudd, authorised by the Liberal Party, Canberra).

    So, even though it is increasingly obvious that Gillard will steamroll any challenge on Monday, Labor will still take some lumps. (Of course, the effectiveness of such ads will depend on how much of a demolition job continues to be done on Rud between now and 2013. He could be totally on the nose by then, in which case teh sound bites will be useless).

    On the upside, Gillard is as impressive and in-control as I’ve ever seen her. She seems to be growing in stature, even as Rudd shrinks and collapses like a deflating balloon.

    Some haer ahve opined that the current polling is odd as Gillard doesn’t appear to have lost any further public support, despite the current Rudd circus. I don’t think it’s odd at all. I think it’s likely that people are starting to twig as to just how strong and principled a leader she is and what crap Rudd was. Very early days, of course, but if I’m right, the polling makes perfect sense.

    As time goes on we may well find ‘Ju-Liar’ and contempt being increasingly replaced by, if not exactly fondness, at least by a sort of grudging admiration for the obvious strength of character and commitment to the job she has displayed.

    This is good. She can work with this. Howard did, as did Thatcher.

    No folks, I think we just may be seeing the beginnings of a changing of the tide. IMHO It’s no longer going-out for Gillard and the Labor Party.

  5. AJ Canberra

    David Marr put it so eloquently last night on Lateline. His parting words

    [EMMA ALBERICI: A quick last word David Marr.

    DAVID MARR: I don’t think we need to be answering that question. His chances of winning on Monday are extraordinarily slim. He’ll be on the backbench again and we’ll once again see that amazing image that we saw the morning that he was sacked, of that grim face on the very back row of Parliament contemplating his future.

    EMMA ALBERICI: Could all this be again just an attempt to destabilise the party?

    DAVID MARR: Well, no. It’s about his ambition to be leading that party and this country again. It’s not about sabotage, but it is about a man who is willing to do unbelievable damage to his Party in order to try to get back there. It’s about Kevin.]

  6. Jeez, which thread are we on?
    Just gave up here and re-posted on Nielsen thread
    came back to close the tab, refreshed and here you all are!

  7. From the Phil Coorey article:

    Ms Gillard attacked Mr Rudd for claiming the moral high ground on climate change, saying in the end it was she, not he, who delivered the policy, and in much more difficult circumstances.
    She noted she had managed to pass legislation through a hung parliament with a hostile opposition while Mr Rudd failed with a parliamentary majority and a willing opposition leader.

    Gillard will do me as PM. One tough, smart lady! Popularity will come with the surplus Budget and the ETS compensation.

  8. [Right now it’s very early in the morning. Rudd, awake as usual, will probably be thinking, “What the F**K have I done?” (probably in those very words).]

    Very unlikely, Bushfire. Egotistical megalomaniacs rarely see fault lying with them, preferring to blame others for predicaments they end up in.

    Rudd will be thinking “What the f*ck have those factional bastards done to turn Caucus against me!”

  9. smithe @ 656,

    Yes, Labor will take a hit in the short term; queue the deep voices and scary music. Beyond that, Abbott can’t keep parroting the same sound bites; they’ve been Rudded. He has to change, and that isn’t in his nature.

    You’re also right that Gillard is now (finally!) showing her true mettle; yay! Shock and awe for the media.

  10. Political animal

    [Ms Gillard attacked Mr Rudd for claiming the moral high ground on climate change, saying in the end it was she, not he, who delivered the policy, and in much more difficult circumstances.]

    Gillard’s promise before the election was that there will be no carbon tax under the government she leads.

    Now that there is a leadership spill on, her chief claim for support from her colleagues is the fact that she delivered.

    In short, her leadership pitch is that she can deliver broken promises.

    The Australian Labor Party has become an utter disgrace and our democracy is weaker for it

  11. [Thornleigh Labor Man
    Posted Friday, February 24, 2012 at 11:49 pm | Permalink

    Rudd can in effect take over from Faulkner as the moral conscience of the Australian Labor Party ]

    LOL! I didn’t think you did comedy, TLM.

  12. Hope they keep up the preferred prime minister question. It going to be interesting next week. I suspect the position of Rudd and Gillard are going to get swapped.

    The 21 who voted for Rudd are going to look pretty stupid.

  13. It is interesting the journalists have a code of ethics that prevents them reporting what is going on. The desire to be players seem to have undermined their purpose.

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