Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition; Nielsen on preferred Labor leader

GhostWhoVotes reports that Galaxy and Nielsen have dipped toes into the murky polling waters, the former with a complete set of results and the latter with numbers on preferred Labor leader. Galaxy’s poll was conducted yesterday and today, and the voting intention figures are essentially unchanged on the previous poll four weeks ago: the Coalition two-party preferred lead is unchanged at 54-46, from primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor (unchanged), 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one) and 12 per cent for the Greens (unchanged). Interestingly, a question on voting intention if Kevin Rudd were Labor leader has produced far less dramatic results than when Nielsen conducted a similar exercise last September. The Coalition lead would narrow to 51-49, a three-point improvement in Labor’s position rather than the 10-point improvement in Nielsen.

On preferred Labor leader, Nielsen has it at 58-34 in Rudd’s favour (it was 57-35 at the poll a fortnight ago) compared with 52-26 from Galaxy (52-30 a month ago), suggesting the two were doing different things with respect to allocating respondents to the undecided category. Galaxy’s result points to a dramatic swing in favour of Rudd among Labor supporters, from 49-48 in Gillard’s favour a month ago to 53-39 in Rudd’s favour now. That the shift among all voters is less dramatic presumably suggests that support for Rudd among Coalition supporters has dropped.

The Galaxy poll also finds that 57 per cent believe the independents should force an early election if Rudd becomes leader, but it is not clear how many would prefer that in any case. Full tables from Galaxy here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

670 comments on “Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition; Nielsen on preferred Labor leader”

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  1. Pope takes to Twitter to reach his flock

    Tweets from Benedict XVI’s personal account won’t always be written by the pope himself, but will always be approved by him

    h­ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/feb/24/pope-twitter

    This must be one of the biggies. The bloke works for the omnipresent and omniscient and he does Twitter?!

    HE knows what you think – no need to pray, assemble, glorify, abase …

    Not casting nasturtiums on those who do, just saying that, maybe, it is not necessary?

  2. Duckie – I think that sometimes people are too close to the numbers. I will admit I blamed the media much more because I gave KR the benefit of the doubt,. New information has led me to significantly change that view. I posted a few days ago that he was finished. I stand by that. Why? He has let a lot of people, like me, down. Big time.

    POss is mesmirised by numbers that are really only photographs of the past. He needs to factor in all the new variables.

  3. Gweneth,

    I also thought Kevvie, once deposed, was being a nice little FM.

    Possum does econometrics and is superb at analysing trends.

    If he wants to gaze into a crystal ball then he is no better at that than I.

  4. And, Gweneth,

    On letting people down, that will quickly or slowly get through to the electorate.

    It will no longer be Abbott v Gillard / Rudd; it will be Abbott v Gillard and I know where my money would lie.

  5. [Tweets from Benedict XVI’s personal account won’t always be written by the pope himself, but will always be approved by him]

    Hmmm, what are the odds of every teenaged Catholic lad on the planet with a twitter account getting a ‘stop it or you’ll go blind’ msg from His Holiness?

  6. [A few months of Professor X and Dr Y expressing their opinions on Rudd’s conduct and psyche and he won’t be electable as a local councillor, let alone PM of Australia.

    Take a polaroid of the polls then and tell us what they say.]
    Nah, cos the problem is at the moment Abbott seems to be low risk because it ain\’t Gillard. Once Rudd is Labor leader again, Labor becomes the incumbent, and Abbott becomes high risk because he isn\’t Rudd.

    Rudd would give the government back the sense of incumbency and authority which it has lacked all the time Gillard has been leader.

  7. [And, Gweneth,

    On letting people down, that will quickly or slowly get through to the electorate.

    It will no longer be Abbott v Gillard / Rudd; it will be Abbott v Gillard and I know where my money would lie.]

    I think a lot of people are going to feel like suckers. There are two problems here though, I think:

    1.) There are going to be vested interests who will want to keep presenting Rudd as a poor martyr, given his behind-the-scenes promises to them.

    2.) When/if people do realise more about what Rudd was really up to, the question is where these people then go. Do they finally give Gillard a fair chance, or do they wind up looking outside the ALP altogether? No matter how one-sided the caucus vote will be, the weeks after it are going to be crucial.

  8. smithe,

    As I understand it from just general news, is that the heavily Catholic countries are finding that lots of the flock are quietly ignoring various papal pronouncements, more so in the richer countries than the poorer.

    The ones who sign up to “his” twitter will not change. The hope lies with the next generation.

    I am atheist but shall never bucket on those who have religion, because they get that from introduction, pure and simple.

    There are also those who convert because, I think, they cannot cope with the responsibilities their particular lives impose upon them. My step-mother was a case in point. No need to scorn them either.

    Enough philosophy for one night from me.

  9. gt
    I didn’t want to see you binned because of attacks. Attacks great least interesting, you are boring. Please say something interesting.

  10. [A few months of Professor X and Dr Y expressing their opinions on Rudd’s conduct and psyche and he won’t be electable as a local councillor, let alone PM of Australia.]

    And furthermore, what do you think his press conferences are gonna be like?

    They hurled it at Gillard and sure as Hell, they won’t be shy at hurling it at Rudd. For example:

    “Mr Rudd, you assured your colleagues before your re-election to the prime ministership that you’ve changed, can you tell us whether you’re still swearing at them and ‘freezing them out’ in meetings if they offer you advice you don’t like?”

    “Mr Rudd, when you previously held the position as Prime Minister your office was clearly dysfunctional, what confidence can the Australian people have thay you’re now up to and in fact doing the job?”

    “Have you learned to control your temper yet?”

    “How many policy matters are currently held-up in your office because you can’t bring yourself to make a decision on them?”

    “Are you still leaking cabinet material to the press?”

    “Are you still giving secret briefings to selected journalists?”

    “Have you or your staff held anysecret meetings this week with (insert here: Pokie Lobby, Mining Lobby….)?”

    etc etc etc.

    Fair dinkum, he’s one of the few PMs who could fairly be asked: “Have you stopped bullying and abusing your staff and colleagues yet?”

    Yep. He’ll get a dream run with the press.

  11. Puff,

    Let me whisper in your ear, since we’re here on the lounge: Bilbo has said that repetition is boring but not a red-card crime.

  12. [Nah, cos the problem is at the moment Abbott seems to be low risk because it ain\’t Gillard. Once Rudd is Labor leader again, Labor becomes the incumbent, and Abbott becomes high risk because he isn\’t Rudd.

    Rudd would give the government back the sense of incumbency and authority which it has lacked all the time Gillard has been leader.]

    Jesus H Christ on a bike.

    You really aren’t in touch with reality, are you?

  13. [etc etc etc.

    Fair dinkum, he’s one of the few PMs who could fairly be asked: “Have you stopped bullying and abusing your staff and colleagues yet?”

    Yep. He’ll get a dream run with the press.]

    Bingo. And some still think that he’ll get through that with his polls and ‘Mr Popular’ image intact. Of course, I think he’d have cracked a long time ago if he had to handle the pressure Gillard does.

  14. Fair dinkum, trying to discuss Rudd’s prospects with the green one is like trying to discuss athiesm with a Jesuit.

    Waste of breath. My bad.

    On that note I’m outa here.

  15. [And some still think that he’ll get through that with his polls and ‘Mr Popular’ image intact.]

    Well, they profess to believe it rishane, but careful consideration of what they’re actually saying reveals a certain slack-jawed flippancy that belies that belief.

    In short, they’re spam bots.

    Not even St Augustine on his best days could square that particular circle.

  16. Ok, these polls are … odd.

    As I said earlier, I was really expecting a big hit to the ALP PV/TPP votes as a result of this mess.

    It isn’t appearing in these polls.

    As I also said in the Morgan thread, putting too much weight on what are going to be very volatile poll results in these volatile political times is a mug’s game. But here’s me being a mug:

    * the lack of a hit to the ALP, to me, means something odd is going on. My best guess, and I don’t like the implications being a confessed “Gillardite”, is that there is some Quantum leadership stuff going on in peoples’ minds at the moment and that there is some portion of the population who sees the current turmoil as a way of chalking up Kevin Rudd as leader again and this has caused a lift in the ALP vote that has offset the negative of the disunity/leadership chaos.

    * I will admit that these polls do show Kevin Rudd being more popular than Julia Gillard. I still suggest that there is a lot of dodginess in preferred leader polls and paying too much attention to them is not wise – now moreso than ever. However, he is shown as leading by a good margin amongst ALP voters, and for that I’ll concede he is more popular in general.

    * However, as Dio pointed out, the accompanying 3 point bonus shown in Galaxy for hypothetically swapping to Kevin Rudd for the ALP is … pathetic. That’s nothing to change leaders over, and can easily be explained by mischief making and noise.

    * The 57% approving of the independents forcing a new election if Kevin Rudd took over is just odd. I’d suspect that most of the people answering that question didn’t really understand what was being asked, or alternatively there’s a groundswell of general support for a new election right now, irrespective of Kevin Rudd’s status, that isn’t being revealed by other questions.

    All in all I don’t think there’s anything in these polls to swing the caucus vote. The ALP has to prepare for worse polling regardless of what happens. Kevin Rudd is not a serious leadership prospect no matter what these preferred leader polls say – and they certainly haven’t shifted in Kevin Rudd’s favour overall – simply because the bloodletting that has occurred within the ALP will make him unelectable. As soon as he got back in the attacks from the LNP and the media would have him on his knees.

    I stand by my prediction of the most likely medium term outcome – Julia Gillard fends off Kevin Rudd for now (obviously), limps on another 6 to 9 months bedding down the current legislative agenda, checks the polls, which will probably be bad, and will step down for ABR.

    There is still time and still a possibility to turn things around. If Julia Gillard does manage to get a recovery in the polling numbers back to 50-50 she can definitely win in 2013 (to state the bleedingly obvious). If she steps down for ABR then they will be in a losing position and will probably still lose, although hopefully with a not too devastating margin.

    Kevin Rudd in the leadership position is fast track to oblivion.

    To also reiterate the blindingly obvious – Julia Gillard and the ALP are in a much worse position now than they were last week simply because Kevin Rudd couldn’t stop himself from making himself the story again.

  17. Being PM is no easy task. Rudd was the first ALP leader to govern in the social media age. Both Gillard and Rudd have found this environment particularly challenging. Rudd governed with the public in mind, which is why he was difficult to deal with for those around him. It is undeniable that Rudd has an uncanny knack for striking a chord with the electorate. Gillard has not been able to grasp this aspect of leadership. Happy colleagues and advisors does not necessarily equal electoral success.

    *Thought bubble alert*

    I think that Gillard’s carbon tax was a plot to damage the environmental movement, particularly as we now know that she advised Rudd to drop the CPRS. I think the carbon tax was against her own gut instinct, but some must have convinced her to go back on her word for whatever reason. I don’t think the right factions wanted to see Gillard succeed. They know the greentard types would gladly choose their immediate comforts over future concerns, but they convinced her to hit them anyway, knowing that the lie would probably put off the whole issue for a generation, as well as any left leaning leaders of the party. Right wing ALP forever was the great hope with no unpopular major environmental policies.

    *End thought bubble*

    I don’t know why Gillard took a defamatory shot at Assange, but I suspect it is her acting on advice, as with McClelland. She really ought to clear that one up. As someone coming from the left of the party (Gillard that is), I could forgive her for this big screw up if she apologises and does what she can to protect him from the stormtroopers.

    Aussies have big hearts and are ready for Rudd to have a second go. They might even forgive Gillard if she comes clean about the advice she has received, given that she doesn’t seem to make her own decisions.

    It’s going to be a bloody hard sell either way, but Rudd has the knack and is the only hope for ALP redemption. I think that Rudd would refrain from acting on any grudges he may have, (he is a Labor man) although I think Conroy, Crean, Swan and others may have crossed the line.

    Greentard – your responses prompted by GG were pretty disgraceful. I have had my moments with the snivelling hound, as well as big Frankie C, but you really don’t come across being the slightest bit funny, just pathetic. Rippin on a resident troll needs to be done with finesse, if at all. Who would be impressed with your attitude towards gays? Maybe where you work smokin’ your salmon, but this is PB. Not even the trolliest fibs would spout that crap.

  18. [I think that Gillard’s carbon tax was a plot to damage the environmental movement, particularly as we now know that she advised Rudd to drop the CPRS. I think the carbon tax was against her own gut instinct, but some must have convinced her to go back on her word for whatever reason. I don’t think the right factions wanted to see Gillard succeed. They know the greentard types would gladly choose their immediate comforts over future concerns, but they convinced her to hit them anyway, knowing that the lie would probably put off the whole issue for a generation, as well as any left leaning leaders of the party. Right wing ALP forever was the great hope with no unpopular major environmental policies.]

    I’d imagine a more likely possibility is that she saw the CPRS as unfeasible in the current political environment. It became possible again with the minority government situation, and she worked hard to help bring it in. (He didn’t specify in detail, but Windsor has gone on record saying he thought the cross-party negotiations would have fallen apart several times without her being there.) And boo to Rudd for maintaining Abbott’s ‘SHE LIED ABOUT A CARBON PRICE’ line, when the truth is more complicated.

  19. [And boo to Rudd for maintaining Abbott’s ‘SHE LIED ABOUT A CARBON PRICE’ line, when the truth is more complicated.]

    But you can’t explain that to all the GTs out there. The truth is probably more complicated for their little brains. Maybe for my little brain too.

  20. I gotta say I was extremely disappointed to find my aunt who was a flower child is now a Bolt advocate with all the unhinged opinions to boot.

  21. Just a couple of things:-

    1) whoever said (think it was ML) that the Opposition could use all this at the next election. I say use all of it in your advertising and all it will show is your policy cupboard is bare. They have nothing to offer and the public will see it

    2) a 54-46 result 18 months from the election is more than capably to be bought back. Remember Latham was leading like this less than 12 months out and that ended well

    3) all the key indicators (inflation, unemployment, GDP) are all good for the government and in the heat of an election campaign that is what will get heard especially with Rudd whitelisting out of the equation

    4) the Coaltion has Abbott and by the time he next election comes round (if he is still there) he will be physically spent

    5) the carbon tax will have been in for 12 months, the world won’t have collapsed, people have their compensation and people will think, what was the fuss about. Plus the MRRT is in place an workings treat

    6) Queenslanders remind me of southern Americans (east side). Everyone knows where they are but no-one takes them seriously, they are all nutters.

  22. Another thing, all the smarts in the USA are either in the the North East (New York) or North West (Wahington State). None of it is found in the warmer climate of the South and same goes here, all the smarts are in the colder states much like the USA.

  23. [A few months of Professor X and Dr Y expressing their opinions on Rudd’s conduct and psyche and he won’t be electable as a local councillor, let alone PM of Australia.]

    It’s already started. It can only get worse. Two examples…

    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/rudds-quest-for-revenge-may-be-labors-undoing-20120224-1ttto.html

    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/we-need-to-talk-about-kevin-20120224-1ttxx.html

    The polls today (not too bad, considering) and the certainty that more and more disgruntled ex-staffers are going to come crawling out of the woodwork make Gillard’s defence of her job on Monday assured of success.

    The problem will be Rudd.

    Not so much the white-anting, because he’s given away his plum Foreign Affairs ministry, but the meltdown, when he realises that he’s thrown it all away for the temporary satisfaction of doing his block, will be a thing to behold.

    Right now it’s very early in the morning. Rudd, awake as usual, will probably be thinking, “What the F**K have I done?” (probably in those very words). A 3-point advantage in a hypothetical-on-hypothetical poll 18 months out is not enough.

    The hard thing to do will be to keep him in Parliament. Leaving it is the ultimate dummy-spit, but I wouldn’t put anything past him at the moment. He’ll have to be managed carefully, given some time off, and then brought back gently into the fold. With no ministry he has only a backbencher’s staff entitlement, so not jet-setting with a gaggle of flunkies for Kevin for a while, and surely by now must have lost a lot of credibility with his journalistic urgers.

    As the real “Rudd” story comes out, the public will gradually give him up, or enough of them will to settle things down a bit. I can’t really see him making a comeback. He’s lost the respect of so many of his colleagues, too. And this time they’ll put it on the record.

    Dicey times, though. At the moment the man’s so pumped on his own self-importance that it’s going to take a lot to bring him back down to earth. If anyone can do it, it’s Gillard. She is so patient.

  24. Can’t sleep…back again

    [ Kirky
    Posted Saturday, February 25, 2012 at 5:51 am | Permalink
    Another thing, all the smarts in the USA are either in the the North East (New York) or North West (Wahington State). None of it is found in the warmer climate of the South and same goes here, all the smarts are in the colder states much like the USA.]

    With respect, this is a remarkably silly thing to say, comrade.

    I think you’ll find, for example, that Steve Jobs and the whole personal computer revolution started in California. Not exactly one of the coldest places on the North American continent.

    In relation to Australia, 5 of our 11 Nobel Prize winners have come from cities and states not known for excessively cold weather. There are three from Adelaide SA, one from Brisbane Qld and one born in Kalgoorlie WA.

    I think we can safely say that intelligence, or the smarts as you put-it, aren’t a function of cold climate birth.

  25. Mornin all though I would drop by to see what everyone thinks about Kevs suicide mission. It appears there is plenty of support for Rudd here but I am buggered if I know why after what he has done to the party.

    Brushfire Bill nails it again Rudd will be defeated soundly and will probably contemplate resigning. It is going to be open season on him now his “peculiar” behavior has been made public. The leaks during he 2010 election by Camp Rudd virtually destroyed what should have been a big win for Gillard, she was on track to win 90 seats. Thanks Kev !

    Rudds treachery can’t be rewarded by Labor nor can it be forgotten by journos who will move in for the kill now it’s in the open. Former speech writer Button has written a very damming assesment of Rudd the nutter and is writing a book about His experience . I believe this is the source for Laurie Oakes’s spray at Rudd today.

  26. Morning Bushfire,

    Yes it has indeed already started and the sharp questioning of Rudd will only accelerate from here.

    Recent disclosures as to his past conduct as PM (and also his more recent conduct as the leaking deepthroat in the Gillard cabinet) provides too tempting and easy target for our MSM to score a series of sensationalist headlines and stories for them not to take-up the cudgels.

    They’ll find the temptation of such easy scandal irresistable and the stories will just about write themselves.

    One of the Rudd-Bots on here tried to tell me last night that this wouldn’t happen because…well…..because he’s Kevin Rudd and somehow waaaay above such scrutiny (unlike that illegitimate Gillard woman). Fair dinkum, I kid you not.

  27. @ Finns

    The PM deserves a medal for saving the country from Rudd not the crap she has had to endure whilst she kept quiet to maintain Rudds dignity.

  28. U can almost feel, finally, the more responsible journos are starting to tell the truth about everything and give clear air for PM Gillard

  29. (2/2) Of course PM Gillard made mistakes. She was learning to be a PM & #MSMhacks were hostile. Yet she “GET THINGS DONE” #auspol #respill

    (1/2) All these times, #MSMhacks lied to us that it wasnt Rudd treachery since 2010 that largely put Gillard Govt in such perilous position

  30. Kirby @ 628:
    Yep; Abbott is probably spewing that Rudd has appropriated “his” attack lines. He will have to find some new material for the election, and his colleagues are probably thinking the same thing. #libspill

  31. [I have a bad habit of assuming everyone is male.

    Now that is a telling admission.]

    I have the reverse problem, i thought Puuuuffyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy was errrr Puuuuffffyyyyyyyyyyyyy

  32. TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 ‏ @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
    But the most satisfactory thing comes of this fiasco is Abbott has gone backward & unelectable he he he how sweet it is #respill auspol

  33. Finn @ 640:
    “Responsible media” is a contradiction in terms; they’ve seen the writing on the wall, and don’t want to be associated with a loser.

    To help them put the pieces together: Rudd is using Abbott’s material. Rudd fails, badly. Therefore…

  34. Not a bad article by Tim Soutphommasane. And I agree with this
    [But asking who is best placed to defeat Abbott is the wrong question.]

    It sure bluddy is but not for the same reason. Is it really possible that the Coalition will keep Abbott as its leader going into the 2013 election? I don’t think so.

    Anyway, Soutphommasane’s good article comes to an end right there – his reason is that Rudd will destroy the minority govt (obviously a distinct possibility) but then he overreaches with the absurd claim that “Labor simply may not recover from its civil war for a generation.”

    In our more educated, fast-moving, disposable, 24/7 news/life – people can’t be stuffed hanging onto blood feuds for more than a few hours/days/years let alone a generation.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/rudds-quest-for-revenge-may-be-labors-undoing-20120224-1ttto.html#ixzz1nKf8hHrM

  35. The polls show Rudd more popular than Gillard. Gillard got things done, got change through. Rudd he nice man talking of fair shake of the sauce bottle.

    In 18 months I bet Rudd will not be that popular! Todays polls are meaningless. Look at the polling just before caucus voted Gillard as Leader, they are the more relevant.

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