Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition; Nielsen on preferred Labor leader

GhostWhoVotes reports that Galaxy and Nielsen have dipped toes into the murky polling waters, the former with a complete set of results and the latter with numbers on preferred Labor leader. Galaxy’s poll was conducted yesterday and today, and the voting intention figures are essentially unchanged on the previous poll four weeks ago: the Coalition two-party preferred lead is unchanged at 54-46, from primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor (unchanged), 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one) and 12 per cent for the Greens (unchanged). Interestingly, a question on voting intention if Kevin Rudd were Labor leader has produced far less dramatic results than when Nielsen conducted a similar exercise last September. The Coalition lead would narrow to 51-49, a three-point improvement in Labor’s position rather than the 10-point improvement in Nielsen.

On preferred Labor leader, Nielsen has it at 58-34 in Rudd’s favour (it was 57-35 at the poll a fortnight ago) compared with 52-26 from Galaxy (52-30 a month ago), suggesting the two were doing different things with respect to allocating respondents to the undecided category. Galaxy’s result points to a dramatic swing in favour of Rudd among Labor supporters, from 49-48 in Gillard’s favour a month ago to 53-39 in Rudd’s favour now. That the shift among all voters is less dramatic presumably suggests that support for Rudd among Coalition supporters has dropped.

The Galaxy poll also finds that 57 per cent believe the independents should force an early election if Rudd becomes leader, but it is not clear how many would prefer that in any case. Full tables from Galaxy here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

670 comments on “Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition; Nielsen on preferred Labor leader”

Comments Page 1 of 14
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  4. [I’m reminded of what Mumble says about Rudd: that (wtte) he’s Machiavellian and calculating.]
    What you don\’t go on to say is that Mumble thinks Rudd is the only Labor leader who has a chance of winning the next election.

  8. give running commentary on LL…………….my tv died and I can only get SBS and 7 on the one from my daughters room……buying new one tomorrow 🙂

  10. If Mumble is calling the election 18 months in advance, he cant be much of a student of politics. Was he there when Howard trailed mid-term?

  11. That one’s over. Next bet is what colour Gillard will wear on Monday

    Black 4.00
    White 4.00
    Blue (any shade) 5.00
    Red (any shade) 7.00
    Yellow (any shade) 7.00
    Orange (any shade) 8.00
    Green (any shade) 9.00
    Pink 15.00

    You can also bet on the colour of Rudd’s tie and what country Rudd will relocate to (I’m not kidding, UK is $1.45)

  12. [Galaxy’s result points to a dramatic swing in favour of Rudd among Labor supporters, from 49-48 in Gillard’s favour a month ago to 53-39 in Rudd’s favour now.]
    Yes I also noted this dramatic swing in favour of Rudd among Labor supporters, Mr Bowe.

  13. [Galaxy’s poll was conducted yesterday and today, and the voting intention figures are essentially unchanged on the previous poll four weeks ago]

    Wow. Voters really have turned off the soap opera which is federal politics.

  15. [Greentard
    Posted Friday, February 24, 2012 at 10:53 pm | Permalink
    Where’s your bloody officail entry in the Kevenge Sweepstake ?

    I\’m not sure on which date Gillard will resign, but I think it will be a Sunday.]
    It’s official.
    The lunatics have taken over the asylum.

  18. The Liberal trolls on here continue to put out their lies about the procedure of the leadership ballot. Show me the evidence from the last 5 leadership ballots that Caucus members did not have a secret ballot? Who has said that they had to show their ballot paper? I have received a reply to an email of mine from Melissa Parke who says that it is a secret ballot and she will not be publicizing her vote.
    Stop emulating your hero Abbott’s lying. Stop the lies.

  19. [If Mumble is calling the election 18 months in advance, he cant be much of a student of politics. Was he there when Howard trailed mid-term?]
    My guess is the only time Howard trailed in every poll leading up to an election was in 2007.

    I can\’t quite remember what happened at the 2007 election.

    Oh shit, yes I can, he lost.

  22. Current Kevenge vote sweepstakes are;
    Greentard 1 brazillion (unconfirmed)
    TP 187 (unconfirmed)
    rosemour 47
    Mod Lib 39
    BH 35
    p m z 34
    Andrew 33
    Super + vitalise + DavidWH + Mad cyril 32
    centre +Boerwar 31
    BK + mexicanbeemer 30
    Think Big 29
    muttleymcgee + zoidlord 28
    Finn (waiting for offers)
    Diogenese 27. (suspiciously simpatico with flipper boy )
    Tricot + confessions + Bushfire Bill + Boinzo 27
    Poroti 26
    It’s Time + Dan Gulberry + Aguirre 25
    AJ Canberra + TLBD +Lord Barry Bonkton 24
    imacca + smithe 23
    Danny Lewis 22
    fredn + Puff, the Magic Dragon 21
    Jaeger 20
    Last name red wombat 19
    Guface 18
    kezza2 17
    Ctar 10
    canasta76 3
    deflationite (a very brave) -13
    Oakeshott Country + jenauthor Team Rudd default – 1 brazillion.

  24. [And he said it to a high up Industry professional]

    And to the press gallery and editors.

    No wonder the hacks felt they could treat Gillard with abject disrepect in pressers and interviews. In one ear they had Rudd referring to her in sexist and derogative terms, and in the other Abbott and the opposition with their highly public misogyny.

  25. [Show me the evidence from the last 5 leadership ballots that Caucus members did not have a secret ballot? Who has said that they had to show their ballot paper? ]
    It is a long standing procedure that MPs show each other ballots to prove that they followed the factional line.

    I suspect that this will happen again on Monday as the Right wing factional hacks try to rubb Rudd\’s face in their continued hold on power.

  31. My guess is the only time Howard trailed in every poll leading up to an election was in 2007.

    Mean and tricky Howard had a mixed history of polls between his election frauds. Check out history here.

  32. I don’t underestimate Rudd’s chances in the ballot.
    The glitsy campaign with plenty of media support will spook the undecided, plus, may even turn others from the Gillard camp.
    Believe The Aust. are publishing the email addresses of MP’s. Nothing to do with Therese & Jess telling everyone to ring & email their ministers insisting they vote for Kevvie???

    What’s this about the Minerals Council telling Rudd if he becomes PM not to wait 6 months to reconsider the carbon tax?

    And did I hear right? Did Tony Burke say he will not serve in the government if Rudd becomes the PM?

  33. This little black duck

    [My name is Julia, I’m from Victoria and I’m here to rout!]
    Orrrr more accurately “My name is Julia and I was born not far from the town of
    Llanfairpwllgwyngyllgogerychwyrndrobwllllantysiliogogogoch

  36. Greentart: It is a long standing procedure that MPs show each other ballots to prove that they followed the factional line.

    I suspect that this will happen again on Monday as the Right wing factional hacks try to rubb Rudd\’s face in their continued hold on power.

    I said evidence, not your pathetic rantings.

  38. [Current Kevenge vote sweepstakes are;
    Greentard 1 brazillion (unconfirmed)
    TP 187 (unconfirmed)
    rosemour 47
    Mod Lib 39
    shellbell 36
    BH 35
    p m z 34
    Andrew 33
    Super + vitalise + DavidWH + Mad cyril 32
    centre +Boerwar 31
    BK + mexicanbeemer 30
    Think Big 29
    muttleymcgee + zoidlord 28
    Finn (waiting for offers)
    Diogenese 27. (suspiciously simpatico with flipper boy )
    Tricot + confessions + Bushfire Bill + Boinzo 27
    Poroti 26
    It’s Time + Dan Gulberry + Aguirre 25
    AJ Canberra + TLBD +Lord Barry Bonkton 24
    imacca + smithe 23
    Danny Lewis 22
    fredn + Puff, the Magic Dragon 21
    Jaeger 20
    Last name red wombat 19
    Guface 18
    kezza2 17
    Ctar 10
    canasta76 3
    deflationite (a very brave) -13
    Oakeshott Country + jenauthor Team Rudd default – 1 brazillion.]

  39. [The disparaging way Rudd referred to PM & Abbott’s misogyny, explains why she’s been treated with such disrespect by media. Sad indictment]

    Tweeted it for you Fess!

  41. Current Kevenge vote sweepstakes are;
    Greentard 1 brazillion (unconfirmed)
    TP 187 (unconfirmed)
    rosemour 47
    Mod Lib 39
    shellbell 36
    BH 35
    p m z 34
    Andrew 33
    Super + vitalise + DavidWH + Mad cyril 32
    centre +Boerwar 31
    BK + mexicanbeemer 30
    Think Big 29
    muttleymcgee + zoidlord + robot 28
    Finn (waiting for offers)
    Diogenese 27. (suspiciously simpatico with flipper boy )
    Tricot + confessions + Bushfire Bill + Boinzo 27
    Poroti 26
    It’s Time + Dan Gulberry + Aguirre 25
    AJ Canberra + TLBD +Lord Barry Bonkton 24
    imacca + smithe 23
    Danny Lewis 22
    fredn + Puff, the Magic Dragon 21
    Jaeger 20
    Last name red wombat 19
    Guface 18
    kezza2 17
    Ctar 10
    canasta76 3
    deflationite (a very brave) -13

  42. Hmmmm

    something in the waters is stirring

    kev will probably withdraw

    the 61/17 split is humiliating

    I think it is the shot acroos the bow

    JG is giving him an out

    interesting

  44. Current Kevenge vote sweepstakes are;
    Greentard 1 brazillion (unconfirmed)
    TP 187 (unconfirmed)
    rosemour 47
    Mod Lib 39
    shellbell 36
    BH 35
    p m z 34
    Andrew 33
    Super + vitalise + DavidWH + Mad cyril 32
    centre +Boerwar 31
    BK + mexicanbeemer 30
    Think Big 29
    muttleymcgee + zoidlord 28
    Finn (waiting for offers)
    Diogenese 27. (suspiciously simpatico with flipper boy )
    Tricot + confessions + Bushfire Bill + Boinzo 27
    Poroti 26
    It’s Time + Dan Gulberry + Aguirre 25
    AJ Canberra + TLBD +Lord Barry Bonkton 24
    imacca + smithe 23
    Danny Lewis 22
    fredn + Puff, the Magic Dragon +Gorgeous Dunny 21
    Jaeger 20
    Last name red wombat 19
    Guface 18
    kezza2 17
    Ctar 10
    canasta76 3
    deflationite (a very brave) -13

  45. [And did I hear right? Did Tony Burke say he will not serve in the government if Rudd becomes the PM?]

    Roxon has said the same thing.

  46. [And did I hear right? Did Tony Burke say he will not serve in the government if Rudd becomes the PM?]

    Yep, he said this morning (seems like days ago now) same time as Roxon said it.

  48. Is anyone actually guilty of what they’ve been convicted of? In the news at the moment, there are four convictions overturned.

    Amanda Knox
    Lindy Chamberlain
    Gordon Wood
    Gabe Watson

    As Bob Dylan said, justice is a game.

  49. [PJK For President
    Posted Friday, February 24, 2012 at 11:08 pm | Permalink
    My guess is the only time Howard trailed in every poll leading up to an election was in 2007.

    Mean and tricky Howard had a mixed history of polls between his election frauds. Check out history here.]

    Thanks PJK. That graph highlights what so many have been saying, myself included.

    Check out the volatility- many terrible polls for Howard, many above the 50% mark.

    Now look at the trend lines for this government (pollytrend or Ozwebsite) its has flatlined for over a year at catastrophic levels (landslide ala 1996 / 2007 and much worse).

    The data are clear.

  50. [27 is the most common tip.

    For what that’s worth.]

    Just for the record “27” is NOT my tip.

    27 was the number that our algorithm called Leakometer (patented) came out with after we fed into all the lies, bullshits, half-truths, claims, propaganda blah blah blah that we have collected since 2010.

    😛 😛 😛

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