Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition; Nielsen on preferred Labor leader

GhostWhoVotes reports that Galaxy and Nielsen have dipped toes into the murky polling waters, the former with a complete set of results and the latter with numbers on preferred Labor leader. Galaxy’s poll was conducted yesterday and today, and the voting intention figures are essentially unchanged on the previous poll four weeks ago: the Coalition two-party preferred lead is unchanged at 54-46, from primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor (unchanged), 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one) and 12 per cent for the Greens (unchanged). Interestingly, a question on voting intention if Kevin Rudd were Labor leader has produced far less dramatic results than when Nielsen conducted a similar exercise last September. The Coalition lead would narrow to 51-49, a three-point improvement in Labor’s position rather than the 10-point improvement in Nielsen.

On preferred Labor leader, Nielsen has it at 58-34 in Rudd’s favour (it was 57-35 at the poll a fortnight ago) compared with 52-26 from Galaxy (52-30 a month ago), suggesting the two were doing different things with respect to allocating respondents to the undecided category. Galaxy’s result points to a dramatic swing in favour of Rudd among Labor supporters, from 49-48 in Gillard’s favour a month ago to 53-39 in Rudd’s favour now. That the shift among all voters is less dramatic presumably suggests that support for Rudd among Coalition supporters has dropped.

The Galaxy poll also finds that 57 per cent believe the independents should force an early election if Rudd becomes leader, but it is not clear how many would prefer that in any case. Full tables from Galaxy here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

670 comments on “Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition; Nielsen on preferred Labor leader”

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  1. Current Kevenge vote sweepstakes are;
    Greentard 1 brazillion (unconfirmed)
    TP 187 (unconfirmed)
    rosemour 47
    Mod Lib 39
    shellbell 36
    BH 35
    p m z 34
    Andrew 33
    Super + vitalise + DavidWH + Mad cyril 32
    centre +Boerwar 31
    BK + mexicanbeemer 30
    Think Big 29
    muttleymcgee + zoidlord 28
    Finn (waiting for offers)
    Diogenese 27. (suspiciously simpatico with flipper boy )
    Tricot + confessions + Bushfire Bill + Boinzo 27
    Poroti 26
    It’s Time + Dan Gulberry + Aguirre 25
    AJ Canberra + TLBD +Lord Barry Bonkton 24
    imacca + smithe 23
    Danny Lewis 22
    fredn + Puff, the Magic Dragon +Gorgeous Dunny 21
    Jaeger 20
    Last name red wombat 19
    Guface 18
    kezza2 17
    Ctar 10
    canasta76 3
    deflationite (a very brave) -13
    Oakeshott Country + jenauthor Team Rudd default – 1 brazillion.

  2. jen:

    Thanks. I’m so angry about Rudd’s duplicity and sexism that I can’t think in condensed terms which are suitable for publishing!

  3. Llanfairpwllgwyngyllgogerychwyrndrobwllllantysiliogogogoch

    Would you like me wait while your are saying that or shall I come back?

    Pity, WordPress doesn’t do IPA.

  4. [I am most disappointed with Mrs. Rudd. I liked and respected her alot. But her direct & active involvement is not right.]
    Why isn\’t it right? What is wrong with her expressing her belief that her husband is the best person to win the next election?

    It\’s a free country.

  5. Oh well, the caucus are opting for a landslide defeat over the chance of victory – monumental fools, but that’s Labor for ya!

    Will Julia be blaming the next stuff up on a soon to be backbench MP? 🙂

  6. Dio – But to cheer people up on the justice front Cherie Blair says she is going NI in the courts.

    Who her barrister is will be interesting.

  7. Now look at the trend lines for this government (pollytrend or Ozwebsite) its has flatlined for over a year at catastrophic levels (landslide ala 1996 / 2007 and much worse).

    There are 18 months to go, something that makes you Liberals choke on your bile. Let’s just see what happens. What those lines on the graph show and history tells us is that things happen and trends reverse.

  8. Just watched LateLine. I don’t think Australians should put up with anyone calling the PM a “F** Bomb Bitch” and the Lodge “Boganville”.

    Who wants someone like that representing us on the world stage? I’m ashamed now that we even let Rudd be FM – just imagine what we was saying “off the record” to his counterparts overseas? What must they think of us?

    Last night I said I didn’t think Rudd would run if he couldn’t muster above 20 votes. Well, I doubt we’ll ever know the actual numbers, because I’m sticking with my prediction that in the end he won’t run. He has form on this – and his ego won’t let him suffer a loss as big as the one he is now heading for.

    I just hope some of the journalists who Rudd “backgrounded” put their personal integrity above their “journalistic ethics” (an oxymoron if ever I heard one!). Although Malcolm Farr (?) on LateLine virtually did – just by how he dodged the question about whether he was one of them.

  9. Greentard: It’s sadly predictable that Therese Rein is now being personally attacked here.
    Kevin Rudd’s family should be off limits.

  10. [p m z
    Posted Friday, February 24, 2012 at 10:58 pm | Permalink
    I posted it in the last thread but it deserves to be posted again: Harrowing footage shot in Homs]
    see 16 for the link.

    Thanks for posting the link, p m z
    My son and I, in the early hours of this morning, had a discussion about how the crisis in Syria is being reported.

    Hey, guess what, the only way it;s being reported is the death of two Western journos.
    Not even Australian journos. Sure, there were 10 or so other people killed at the same time. But we don;t get to hear about them. They’re just expendable.

    It was the same with the Japanese tsunami. Headlines about maybe 10 Aussies missing, fk all about the hundreds of thousands of Japanese who had perished.

    We were sickened.

    That’s the thing p m z – The leadership ballot is described as a “CRISIS”. Pffft. this is the type of shit that people in Australia, without thinking, accepts as a real crisis.

    Shit, why don’t they understand anything but their own comfort.
    It’s got me beat.

  11. Keep posting, friends. I’m on early shift this week -so not much to to read or post.

    What I’ve seen (and heard on radio) might go over the head of the average voter, but …

    If it was a genuine test of leadership (as distinct from populist appearances in the polls) Gillard’s got a gulf before you could even see that poseur. We’ve seen that in the last few days.

    And I still have fond memories of her putting the wind up Hartigan and Mitchell over Bolt’s little attempt at libel.

  12. Don’t tell me that the nice Mr Rudd is a vicious, vengeful, sexist, duplicitous person coz I’ll never, ever believe you.

    OTOH, if you really want to know Ms Jessica has displaced Ms SHY as the female political person I would least like to listen to.

  13. [Kevin Rudd’s family should be off limits.]

    Says he who frequently refers to Mathieson in derogative terms.

    Please don’t do high moral ground after you yourself have referred to the PM in sexist terms.

  14. Interesting coincidence.

    John Wilkes Booth frequented the Willard Hotel, the same establishment Rudd was staying at in Washington this week.

  15. No change in the 2PP after what has been happening over the past few days has to be a good result. Now the government can get on with closing the gap during 2012.

  16. why do people compare the second go for Keating to Rudd. Keating was the leader in waiting. He had not been PM. He had been promised the job.

    Very very different from Rudd now

  17. ha ha ha this is beautiful: #Newspoll Preferred ALP Leader: Gillard 30 (+6 from September) Rudd 53 (-4) #respill #auspol

    ‘Nuff said – Rudd gone backward after all the hoo haas

  18. Apologies if this has been posted before, but I haven’t been reading through all the crap the last couple of days. I found the following image posted under the title “The winner of the Labor leadership battle is…” h­ttp://imgur.com/Fvuwd

  19. Well all those polls will have zero effect on caucus.
    I suspect a bigger effect will come from the naming of the 4 journalists

  20. CTar1

    [But to cheer people up on the justice front Cherie Blair says she is going NI in the courts.]

    I’m not sure Cherie Blair is a lot better than Murdoch.

  21. [Why isn\’t it right? What is wrong with her expressing her belief that her husband is the best person to win the next election?]

    she did not just “expressing” her belief. She was actively urging and campaigning on his behalf. That’s a BIG difference.

    I feel sorry for you if you cant see the difference.

  22. LSL,

    Gillard may be good, but even she can only take on one mysoginistic, egotistical, duplicitous sociopath at a time.

    Abbott will just have to wait his turn.

  23. [Greentard: It’s sadly predictable that Therese Rein is now being personally attacked here.
    Kevin Rudd’s family should be off limits.]
    Most of the campaign against Rudd has simply been personal attacks.

    I mean you just have to look at the polls that show voters think Rudd is the better person to be Labor leader, so I realise that the Gillard supporters have had to go personal to support their weak leader who most Australians don\’t like.

  24. All these predictable poll results show nothing new. The country isn’t run by opinion polls published in biased newspapers. Julia will win comfortably on Monday and the world will continue to turn. Abbott will carry on walking with that broomstick up his arse, and he will be the one looking over his shoulder. Onwards and upwards, Julia.

  25. [#Newspoll Preferred ALP Leader: Gillard 30 (+6 from September) Rudd 53 (-4) #respill #auspol]

    Interesting all the polls converging around this figure. Obviously the early figure for Newspoll overstated the figure.

    So around 30/53 to Rudd. That is pretty clear that Gillard has zero chance of winning back former Labor voters from the Libs but Rudd does have a reasonable chance.

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