The latest result from ever-perverse Morgan face-to-face series has Labor continuing to perform strongly, with their primary vote at 37 per cent against 41.5 per cent for the Coalition and 14.5 per cent for the Greens. Morgan’s headline two-party preferred figure, which is based on respondents’ own allocation of their preferences, has the Coalition ahead 52-48. But if you allocate preferences as per the last election result, which usually gives you the best result provided your primary vote figures are reasonable to begin with, Labor actually comes out 51.5-48.5. This result combines the previous two weekends of Morgan’s regular polling, from a collective sample of 2005. As is generally the case with Morgan face-to-face, your best bet is to take it with a grain of salt and wait for the Nielsen and Newspoll phone polls and Essential Research online poll which should be with us on Sunday evening or Monday. I was rather hoping Morgan would treat us to a phone poll conducted in the middle of the week, as it does from time to time, but no such luck.
[I wonder how quickly Rudd’s mind turned to ‘I want revenge’, given that his ‘faceless men’ and ‘don’t lurch to the right’ routine in his resignation speech helped provide some of the anti-government memes in the upcoming months.]
That night he promised to contest the ballot the next day. He didn’t.
If he had, it would’ve aided the perception of legitimacy of Gillard’s leadership, in much the same way that despite Abbott only beating MT by 1 vote, nobody ever questions the legitimacy of his leadership because there was an actual vote in the partyroom.
I’m reminded of what Mumble says about Rudd: that (wtte) he’s Machiavellian and calculating.
GT, TP, ML et all. At the end of the first furlong of any horse race, the leading horse wins the race approximately 20% of the time. Fewer players in political races I’d concede, but the basic principle holds. Front running is no guarantee of strategic or political success.
There are countless iconic political leaders who had worse polling numbers than the current Prime Minister of Australia, many times in their careers as political leaders- e.g Keating, Howard, Thatcher -in fact all these leaders now have an iconic political status precisely because they recovered from poor polling.
The current Prime Minister of Australia is in good company with her current polling numbers and many PBrs consider she is showing similar characteristics – steel, conviction and integrity.
[Tr\\uth\\ie, Mickey Mouse is more popular than Gillard, Abbott, Ruddand Turnbull all put together. But nobody is screaming out for MM to be our PM.]
There\’s no need to be a silly billy dilly willy when you have no real argument.
[It is balmy. The trade winds are rustling gently in the palm fronds. There is a brou haha amongst the hundreds of foreign workers who are jostling for sitting space on the flat bed trucks that will do the run back to Malaysia. Palm swiftlets whizz past idly soaring Bhraminy kites. Heat lightning flickers through the vast thunderstorm building over Bukit Timah. The Tiger Beer is going down quite nicely.]
BW, stay away from geyland
oooooppps, geyland = geylang
TP
Do you agree with the health expert’s diagnosis that Mr Rudd is a sociopath?
Poroti put me down for 3
TP
Exploding bodies, shrapnel everywhere, Gillard’s mafioso praetorian guard lurking in the shadows, vitriol spilling over the edges and bursting into flame resulting in an apocalyptic frenzy the like of which we’ve never seen.
I think I’m getting the hang of this.
Current Kevenge vote sweepstakes are;
Greentard 1 brazillion (unconfirmed)
TP 187 (unconfirmed)
rosemour 47
Mod Lib 39
BH 35
p m z 34
Andrew 33
Super + vitalise + DavidWH 32
centre +Boerwar 31
BK + mexicanbeemer 30
Think Big 29
muttleymcgee + zoidlord 28
Finn (waiting for offers)
Tricot + confessions + Bushfire Bill + Boinzo 27
Poroti 26
It’s Time + Dan Gulberry + Aguirre 25
AJ Canberra + TLBD 24
imacca + smithe 23
Danny Lewis 22
fredn + Puff, the Magic Dragon 21
Last name red wombat 19
Guface 18
kezza2 17
Ctar 10
deflationite (a very brave) -13
Oakeshott Country + jenauthor Team Rudd default – 1 brazillion.
[ The Finnigans
Posted Friday, February 24, 2012 at 10:00 pm | Permalink
When election comes, the punters want “GET THINGS DONE”]
Well, I think they’ll prefer the Devil they know, rather than punt for:
1. Tax cuts for Clive and Gina (with abolition of the MRRT);
2. Tax hikes and/or pension cuts for themselves (with abolition of the Carbon Scheme compensation package);
3. Reduced Superannuation contris (with abolition of the MRRT);
4. No NBN;
5. A grab bag of nebulous un-costed ‘aspirations’ that may or may not be fulfilled by an incoming Abbott Government, depending on how Tones feels on any given day.
pmz
What so you think you make meaningful and substantive posts do you?
The day you make a successfully predicted outcome, I might consider your opinion, but in the meantime, keep scratching your ass and…ZIP!
Current Kevenge vote sweepstakes are;
Greentard 1 brazillion (unconfirmed)
TP 187 (unconfirmed)
rosemour 47
Mod Lib 39
p m z 34
ANDREW 33
Super + vitalise + DavidWH 32
centre +Boerwar 31
BK + mexicanbeemer 30
Think Big 29
muttleymcgee + zoidlord 28
Finn (waiting for offers)
Tricot + confessions + Bushfire Bill 27
Poroti 26
It’s Time + Dan Gulberry + Aguirre 25
AJ Canberra + TLBD 24
imacca + smithe 23
Danny Lewis 22
fredn + Puff, the Magic Dragon 21
Last name red wombat 19
Guface 18
kezza2 17
Ctar 10
deflationite (a very brave) -13
Oakeshott Country + jenauthor Team Rudd default – 1 brazillion.
The only result that matters in that lot is the comparison vote with Rudd vs Gillard as leader.
Rudd only got a 3% higher primary than Gillard, which is about MOE and could be explained by a few mischievous Libs saying they would switch.
That isn’t enough reason to switch to Rudd.
Put me down as Rudd 27.
Current Kevenge vote sweepstakes are;
Greentard 1 brazillion (unconfirmed)
TP 187 (unconfirmed)
rosemour 47
Mod Lib 39
BH 35
p m z 34
Andrew 33
Super + vitalise + DavidWH 32
centre +Boerwar 31
BK + mexicanbeemer 30
Think Big 29
muttleymcgee + zoidlord 28
Finn (waiting for offers)
Tricot + confessions + Bushfire Bill + Boinzo 27
Poroti 26
It’s Time + Dan Gulberry + Aguirre 25
AJ Canberra + TLBD 24
imacca + smithe 23
Danny Lewis 22
fredn + Puff, the Magic Dragon 21
Last name red wombat 19
Guface 18
kezza2 17
Ctar 10
canasta76 3
deflationite (a very brave) -13
Oakeshott Country + jenauthor Team Rudd default – 1 brazillion.
Finns
I plead the sergeant Schultz defense. It is where the HQ of The Singapore Nature Society is. That is all I know.
Where are the Gillard supporters now?
Aggy
Ive got the molotovs ready
😉
But, but, but, what about…
Surely with all that nous winning over his fellow MPs should be a doddle? After all, he’s been at it for months now.
[The only result that matters in that lot is the comparison vote with Rudd vs Gillard as leader.
Rudd only got a 3% higher primary than Gillard, which is about MOE and could be explained by a few mischievous Libs saying they would switch.
That isn’t enough reason to switch to Rudd.]
Diog, STOP ECHOING ME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
[WTF? he announced today he is challenging.]
I think you’ll find he said “I intend to challenge” – that gives him an out clause
Current Kevenge vote sweepstakes are;
Greentard 1 brazillion (unconfirmed)
TP 187 (unconfirmed)
rosemour 47
Mod Lib 39
BH 35
p m z 34
Andrew 33
Super + vitalise + DavidWH 32
centre +Boerwar 31
BK + mexicanbeemer 30
Think Big 29
muttleymcgee + zoidlord 28
Finn (waiting for offers)
Diogenese 27. (suspiciously simpatico with flipper boy :))
Tricot + confessions + Bushfire Bill + Boinzo 27
Poroti 26
It’s Time + Dan Gulberry + Aguirre 25
AJ Canberra + TLBD 24
imacca + smithe 23
Danny Lewis 22
fredn + Puff, the Magic Dragon 21
Last name red wombat 19
Guface 18
kezza2 17
Ctar 10
canasta76 3
deflationite (a very brave) -13
Oakeshott Country + jenauthor Team Rudd default – 1 brazillion.
Diog
[Put me down as Rudd 27.]
The only thing you and I have ever agreed on. This is indeed a historic day.
TP
Gillard political nouse: 5/100
Rudd political nouse: 90/100
o please based on what. The P.M has managed to maintain a minority government and Kevin was unable to cement himself which should not have been hard considering the fact that he was able to defeat Howard
[Diogenes
Posted Friday, February 24, 2012 at 10:21 pm | Permalink
Mod Lib
I will tolerate criticising me for voting liberal but bagging Veuve?????
I agree with fess. Veuve is pretty crass champagne.
Had a les Mesnil Blanc de Blanc Grand Cru tonight.
Much better and more interesting and cost much the same.]
And we talk about class warfare.
How fkn pretentious.
Mmmmmm. Do tell us the champag de jour, au momen, au classee, before we make absolute asses of ourselves.
[in retrospect, would it have been better at the time to say the real reason she came to the job?]
That would have meant devaluing Rudd’s (and Labor’s) legacy up to that time. That was not something that Labor would have wanted to do when the polls were close and had been trending downwards. And there was the assumption that Rudd was a team player and would reciprocate the protection of his legacy with loyalty to the party. We can all be clever in hindsight but people who had worked with Rudd for years were making those decisions.
[I plead the sergeant Schultz defense. It is where the HQ of The Singapore Nature Society is. That is all I know.]
That’s where all the Nyonyas are
[Galaxy Poll Preferred ALP Leader (ALP Voters): Gillard 39 (-10) Rudd 53 (+5)#auspol]
Galaxy Poll Preferred ALP Leader: Gillard 26 (-4) Rudd 52 (0)
I repeat…People should reflect long and hard on the implications of this.
Rudd is the only chance at all of wining votes from the Coalition.
Rudd now holds in his hand a number of Labor voters who would be lost if he is rolled, how many are these will be the scary unknown number, but I cant imagine it will be pretty.
Rudd is now an electoral time bomb for the factions.
So will the continue their over the top smearing of Rudd, its seems to have worked really well. All it seems to have done is make people hate Gillard. Rudd was very right in taking the moral high road in his presentation, rather than like Gillard, Swan etc of slagging him.
Gillard political nouse: 5/100
Rudd political nouse: 90/100]
The Primary and TPP will no doubt improve if Rudd were actually made PM. As those Liberal (former Labor voters) who want him PM would come back in numbers.
However if Gillard is kept…then many Rudd supporters will be lost, any former Liberal voters that came across, and the chance of picking up Liberal (former Labor voters) zero.
Those support figures are telling a whole lot.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/feb/23/sun-on-sunday-to-cost-50p
Looks like a Baldrick to me.
Farr and Marr with Emma now.
Greentard
[Where are the Gillard supporters now?]
Where’s your bloody officail entry in the Kevenge Sweepstake ?
Farr said Rudd is a shattered man
Lateline – Jennifer Robinson looks stuffed.
Mr Rudd’s political nous ensured his demise.
How good was that?
That guy should lose his licence to practice, making a medical diagnosis without proper testing in the proper environment, but just based on some passing associations and out of context opinion. You would have to then ask why he is acting in such an improper and unprofessional manner.
Molotov Cocktail
Ingredients:
1 1/2 oz Vodka
Float 1 splash 151 proof rum
Mixing instructions:
Pour a shot of vokda (preferably Russian), float the 151, light, blow out, and take the shot down.
Farr agreed with me that this is not the general election, but a Caucus election
Did Mr Farr say why he thought Mr Rudd was a shattered man?
This feeds straight into Mr Rudd’s meme that I am the victim here.
Attach them to the electoral time bomb.
[Mr Rudd’s political nous ensured his demise.
How good was that?]
His poltical demise was all about the factions wanting to retrieve power, the same people who destroyed NSW Labor.
TP
Yes, yes but do you agree with the diagnosis?
I will let you all stew in the implications of these results. They are devastating for the factions.
enjoy
poroti – put me down for 20; it’s looking unloved (just like Kevin.)
Voters in Queensland must be relieved that neither of the party leaders is Julia Gillard.
[
Current Kevenge vote sweepstakes are;
Greentard 1 brazillion (unconfirmed)
TP 187 (unconfirmed)
rosemour 47
Mod Lib 39
BH 35
p m z 34
Andrew 33
Super + vitalise + DavidWH 32
centre +Boerwar 31
BK + mexicanbeemer 30
Think Big 29
muttleymcgee + zoidlord 28
Finn (waiting for offers)
Diogenese 27. (suspiciously simpatico with flipper boy )
Tricot + confessions + Bushfire Bill + Boinzo 27
Poroti 26
It’s Time + Dan Gulberry + Aguirre 25
AJ Canberra + TLBD 24
imacca + smithe 23
Danny Lewis 22
fredn + Puff, the Magic Dragon 21
Last name red wombat 19
Guface 18
kezza2 17
Ctar 10
canasta76 3
deflationite (a very brave) -13
Oakeshott Country + jenauthor Team Rudd default – 1 brazillion.
]
In case it was missed, I say 32 votes
poroti
21
Feeney @ # 93
”RUDD IS THE ANSWER.”
If Rudd is the answerer it must be a very silly irrelevant question.
in other news. here’s some harrowing video footage shot in homs: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SyQIv5wyYGE&feature=share
Wow Farr & Marr came to bury Rudd and they are doing it #Lateline #respill
TP
Treating your comrades like shit is not political nous. He didn’t even bother to take it to a vote the first time round. He knew that the numbers would have been humiliating.
Very late on the sweepstakes scene, but I’ll go for 21, Joining Puff and fredn.
I think it has to be a belting to destroy this fancy once and for all.