The latest result from ever-perverse Morgan face-to-face series has Labor continuing to perform strongly, with their primary vote at 37 per cent against 41.5 per cent for the Coalition and 14.5 per cent for the Greens. Morgan’s headline two-party preferred figure, which is based on respondents’ own allocation of their preferences, has the Coalition ahead 52-48. But if you allocate preferences as per the last election result, which usually gives you the best result provided your primary vote figures are reasonable to begin with, Labor actually comes out 51.5-48.5. This result combines the previous two weekends of Morgan’s regular polling, from a collective sample of 2005. As is generally the case with Morgan face-to-face, your best bet is to take it with a grain of salt and wait for the Nielsen and Newspoll phone polls and Essential Research online poll which should be with us on Sunday evening or Monday. I was rather hoping Morgan would treat us to a phone poll conducted in the middle of the week, as it does from time to time, but no such luck.
[Yes I think so. Rudd won\’t need to challenge Gillard because she will inevitably resign, so the next leadership spill will be Rudd V Someone else.
Of course Keating said he would only challenge Hawke once before the first ballott]
The difference btwn Keating and Russ is that rudd is making a virtue out of keeping his word.
You maybe right about Gillard resigning depending on the polls. A clean change over to Rudd in the future, much nearer to the election could work IMHO. Not now though.
The trend is with Gillard
[Yes I think so. Rudd won\’t need to challenge Gillard because she will inevitably resign, so the next leadership spill will be Rudd V Someone else.
Of course Keating said he would only challenge Hawke once before the first ballott]
The difference btwn Keating and Rudd is that rudd is making a virtue out of keeping his word.
You maybe right about Gillard resigning depending on the polls. A clean change over to Rudd in the future, much nearer to the election could work IMHO. Not now though.
Any chance ER will report early? It seems their usual Monday afternoon release might be a bit irrelevant.
gary,
The difference between Keating and Rudd is that Cabinet know what sort of PM Rudd was.
And some say Morgan is a joke.
Wow, good result – and so nicely timed!
I take back all the nasty things I ever said about Morgan polls.
Labor’s vote is already improved because people know he is acomin’ back
I think that all the polls will be distorted this weekend. We will have to wait for normal transmissions to return when the leadership is settled one way or the other Monday and when Parliament sits again.
Challengers just lie and say they were reluctantly drafted to challenge for the good of the party. There is a standard press release which they just change the name and party on.
This won’t get a run in the media.
Tomorrow it’s Neilsen and Sunday Newspoll.
Labor expects poor polling this weekend so that shouldn’t have any effect on caucus voting intentions.
So it’s Gillard PM in a landslide.
I thought Rudd presented very well at his news conference today up to question time. He crumbled under tough questioning. He particularly did poorly with the talking to jouranlists question. I thought Gillard nailed him on it.
Kevvie,
Call your memoirs What was I thinking?!
The narrowing …
Scarps
I want a bingo card with this phrase on it.
“The polls this weekend are a referendum on Julia Gillard’s leadership.”
[gary,
The difference between Keating and Rudd is that Cabinet know what sort of PM Rudd was.]
And for all the talk about how Rudd is fighting back against TEH EVIL FACTIONS (which he of course played up this afternoon in his conference), the real divide is that he can’t govern effectively. No matter how good his poll numbers are (were), it means crap if you can’t manage being in office.
[The difference between Keating and Rudd is that Cabinet know what sort of PM Rudd was.]
‘I know Paul Keating and Kevin Rudd is no Paul Keating’…
[I thought Rudd presented very well at his news conference today up to question time. He crumbled under tough questioning. He particularly did poorly with the talking to jouranlists question. I thought Gillard nailed him on it.]
You’ll note he gave two different responses to the same question.
1. Journalists aren’t allowed to out me!
2. Everybody does it anyway!
Yes I agree with Gary @ 3. It was always going to be a two pronged attack. But it will allow important legislation to be bedded down.
Rudd 39-43, quite paralysing really
That poll has a lower primary vote for Labor than at the 2010 election.
Labor won\’t win an election with a lower primary vote than last time.
[The difference between Keating and Rudd is that Cabinet know what sort of PM Rudd was.]
I think the whole caucus knows.
Which is his problem.
[Challengers just lie and say they were reluctantly drafted to challenge for the good of the party. There is a standard press release which they just change the name and party on.]
There is no getting around the fact that if Kev challenges JG he has lied. Once he does that the moral superiority he likes to claim vanishes.
[“The polls this weekend are a referendum on Julia Gillard’s leadership.”]
Dio,
The poll that counts, as they say, is being held on Monday morning at 10:00 I believe…
If Labour go back to the RAT Rudd I will vote green,Rudd is a back stabbing Liar,what did he promise NEWS LTD and what did NEWS LTD, Liars and scum that they are promise him
rishane,
The Bart Simpson defence.
I didn’t do it!
You didn’t see a thing.
You can’t prove anything!
Wow look at the Morgan. Implosion is good for votes. They should do more of it, let Rudd and the factions drag it out until the election.
How about we turn the issue up side down and discuss who we would least prefer – Turnbull or Abbott.
Guess what the first thing the Libs will do if Kev wins. Moderate Libs would easily prefer Turnbull over Abbott, and there would be a spill.
Come on Libs, get behind Rudd so you guys can have someone with a lower faecal content in their cranuim to contend with.
This would be the election Australia has to have.
Greentard,
William called this “New thread”. Just think about it, Ariadne.
Gary
[There is no getting around the fact that if Kev challenges JG he has lied. Once he does that the moral superiority he likes to claim vanishes.]
They all lie. Gillard hasn’t lined up at full forward for the Bulldogs yet.
Diogs,
I want a drinks card.
[23 Scarpat
Posted Friday, February 24, 2012 at 5:15 pm | Permalink
“The polls this weekend are a referendum on Julia Gillard’s leadership.”
Dio,
The poll that counts, as they say, is being held on Monday morning at 10:00 I believe…]
As the PM pointed-out today, this isn’t Celebrity Big Brother.
Some people here and in the media don’t seem to get that.
I would vote ALp if it was a crap sandwich they endorsed, but I wouldn’t enjoy it
http://tom-cummings.blogspot.com.au/2012/02/defamatory-pre-commitment.html
[Friday, February 24, 2012
Defamatory Pre-Commitment
Just what transpired between Kevin Rudd and Clubs Australia?
As the looming showdown between Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd approaches, the tactics on both sides are becoming ever more personal and accusatory. The vitriol, so long denied, is now flying thick and fast; not just from the opponents themselves, but from their colleagues, supporters, interested parties and most corners of the media.
As this war of words escalates and rages on, claims have been made by both sides that have been instantly denied and countered; such is the cut and thrust of politics. Yet it’s telling that there’s one allegation that was deemed serious enough to provoke the threat of legal action; that allegation came from Clubs Australia.
Anyone who knows me or has read my other blog knows I am no fan of Clubs Australia. They are known to be selective, indeed creative with the truth, and repeatedly ignore the facts in the pursuit of their agenda. But their claim that they held discussions with pro-Rudd individuals in November last year about dropping mandatory pre-commitment for poker machines is hard to ignore.]
Definitely worth reading and very relevant, from long time anti Pokies man Tom Cummings
Rudd’s got a major problem with refusing to disclose his bagging of Gillard and her Government to selected media. One way or another this will come out and he will inflict even more harm on himself and Labor in general.
His problem is even bigger if he thinks he is going to win on monday.
He has got himself in a fine pickle this time.
How about we turn the issue up side down and discuss who we would least prefer – Turnbull or Abbott.
Guess what the first thing the Libs will do if Kev wins. Moderate Libs would easily prefer Turnbull over Abbott, and there would be a spill.
Come on Libs, get behind Rudd so you guys can have someone with a lower faecal content in their cranuim to contend with.
This would be the election Australia has to have. (Sorry if this appears twice)
I say it one more time, to compare Rudd to PJK is an insult to my goldfish
Somehow I don’t think Rudd’s “remember your code of ethics” answer when asked whether he had been negatively “backgrounding” journos about Gillard will go down well with either the journos or the Caucus.
Greentard,
William called this “New thread”. Think about it, Ariadne.
Greentard,
William called this “New thread”. Think about it, Ariadne.
How about we turn the issue up side down and discuss who we would least prefer – Turnbull or Abbott.
Guess what the first thing the Libs will do if Kev wins. Moderate Libs would easily prefer Turnbull over Abbott, and there would be a spill.
Come on Libs, get behind Rudd so you guys can have someone with a lower faecal content in their cranuim to contend with.
This would be the election Australia has to have. (third try at posting this)
Of course Labor support is low. Years of Budget deficits (inevitable given the GFC and Costello’s unsustainable tax cuts and Howard’s pork and middleclass welfare.)
May will see a Labor surplus Budget, obtained not from selling the family silver or a boom but won by hard work in clawing back Howard’s irresponsible spending and tightly disciplined spending due to the reviled-by-idiots Swan.
Meanwhile, Gillard set a cracking pace introducing reforms—change, change most hate. July sees the one really unpopular policy, the ETS, start to become less scary and less unpopular. That leaves 15 months for selling the reforms, the govt and Gillard.
Rudd will get a short term bounce then a steady decline because he will fiddle with what “the bitch” achieved and no one knows what’s what!
Rudd’s press conference was quite solid throughout. A fairly good performance. But of course the last place on earth to come for a fair assessment from Gillard supports would be here.
[The poll that counts, as they say, is being held on Monday morning at 10:00 I believe…]
Actually not quite true….if by some chance both polls come in at 42/58 and Gillard’s approval rating through the floor, dilema for many gillard supporters. And Rudd and his team on the phones all Sunday night.
You can see why Gillard wanted to call it on Monday, otherwise there would be too many polls out showing Labor is heading for oblivion under her.
[That poll has a lower primary vote for Labor than at the 2010 election.
Labor won\’t win an election with a lower primary vote than last time.]
20 months
Has Kevin Rudd promised additional funding for the Crikey server?
[They all lie. Gillard hasn’t lined up at full forward for the Bulldogs yet.]
True but Rudd is saying he doesn’t. Gillard is saying she doesn’t. Gillard has been absolutely cained over telling a lie. Why shouldn’t Rudd also be cained by the people for a lie?
[Actually not quite true…]
Ahh poor Thomas,
It is true. It is only among 103 voters but the MOE will be 0%.
Doesn’t matter what the polls are like, Rudd is an autocratic micromanager who cannot make decisions.
With Gillard if we lose we lose having achieved worthwhile, lasting reforms. Rudd would undo them and we will lose at an election this year and Abbot can reverse all the reforms with ease.
political animal
Exactly!
[Why shouldn’t Rudd also be cained by the people for a lie?]
perhaps because he enjoys being caned…
[Moderate Libs would easily prefer Turnbull over Abbott, and there would be a spill.]
Dream-on. Most Lib moderates were put up against a pock-marked wall years ago. The few who weren’t are retiring, having spent the last several years hiding on the back benches and hoping no-one notices them.
There is no more wet faction in the Liberal party. There’s the soft right, the hard right and the barking-mad tea-party Bernardi faction. That’s it.