Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition

The latest result from ever-perverse Morgan face-to-face series has Labor continuing to perform strongly, with their primary vote at 37 per cent against 41.5 per cent for the Coalition and 14.5 per cent for the Greens. Morgan’s headline two-party preferred figure, which is based on respondents’ own allocation of their preferences, has the Coalition ahead 52-48. But if you allocate preferences as per the last election result, which usually gives you the best result provided your primary vote figures are reasonable to begin with, Labor actually comes out 51.5-48.5. This result combines the previous two weekends of Morgan’s regular polling, from a collective sample of 2005. As is generally the case with Morgan face-to-face, your best bet is to take it with a grain of salt and wait for the Nielsen and Newspoll phone polls and Essential Research online poll which should be with us on Sunday evening or Monday. I was rather hoping Morgan would treat us to a phone poll conducted in the middle of the week, as it does from time to time, but no such luck.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

888 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition”

Comments Page 2 of 18
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  1. A stark difference:

    Gillard says any journalist is free to disclose whether she ever spoke disparagingly about PM Rudd.

    Rudd says I expect journalists to keep conversations I have had with them secret.

    Question – what has Rudd got to hide?

  2. Re. Gillard’s “falling support levels” when she inevitably wins on Monday…

    I think it could well go the opposite way. She has been making a good case for her time as Prime Minister. She has been forthright and strong (e.g. not taking shit from retarded journalists). She has answered every question, within the bounds of decency. She has shown herself to be a strong leader who has gotten things done that Rudd only talked about.

    Something that does worry me is that she is still going easy on Rudd to a certain extent. She hasn’t unleashed the full fury yet: chapter and verse. I was pleased to see her outright accuse him of meeting with journalists in order to white-ant her. I would also like to see her have a go at the journalists who are playing both sides against the middle. This may turn out to be necessary if he persists.

    Rudd’s only answer to the same question was, “Everybody does it,” plus some waffle about journalistic ethics. Gillard released her journalist mates (the ones she’s been supposedly leaking to) from their code of omerta. Rudd refused to do so. Something about them having to maintain confidentiality (but only if you insist on it Kevin… c’mon, who’d you leak to?)

    I did find it funny that Rudd accused Julia of being soft on Carbon Pricing, when she was the one that got it through, when he – for whatever reason – was unable to. He even gave her a peck on the cheek for it when it passed. Didn’t look like a “failure” to me.

    Rudd took the credit for paid parental leave. Excuse me? PPL may have been a gleam in Kevin’s eye, but Gillard was the one who got it through.

    Ditto for the BER, very much her own program.

    Ditto for the NBN… Rudd’s idea (or rather Conroy’s, approved by Rudd), but she got all the details through. Just today Telstra signed up to the latest stage in its own deconstruction. Yes, Julia Gillard is some wimp, isn’t she? Not having the guts to push Telstra around. Oh, wait a minute….

    Tobacco legislation. Another Gillard failure.

    Medicare rebate amendments. What a non-performer she is!

    270+ bills through parliament. “Do-nothing” Julia.

    Not one. NOT ONE Abbott SSO motion carried, despite all the hoopla abpout what an “effective politician” he is.

    My second quibble with Julia… she doesn’t warn the punters enough just what they are going to lose if an Abbott government is elected. At the moment it seems that popular items like the, NBN, pension increases, education rationalization and the like (referred to in a recent Essential Report) are popular with the people at large. They do not seem to understand that if they vote for Abbott, all these will either be dismantled or will be frozen where they are.

    There seems to be a disconnect between voting for Abbott and what that really entails. The punters seem to think they can have Abbott and all the goodies Labor has given them, too.

    They can’t. This should be absolutely rammed home, otherwise it really IS Celebrity Big Brother and we are living in a reality TV show.

    The punters need to be informed in the most frank fashion possible that their votes in elections (unlike their votes in TV cooking and dancing shows) have consequences. That they cannot have both first and second prize together. That problems can’t just be “solved” and “dealt with” in a day. That’s the Abbott way, not the Gillard way, and should not ever be the way of any mature government.

    Get the drift? This is a politician who gets things done so they stay done.

  4. Yes I guess Rudd could do a P Keating, it is quite similar.

    Main difference being that Hawke had a long legacy and was very popular for a long time. Gillard has presided over dismal polls and personal rating quickly dropped to dismal as well, and in opposition to Abbott. Also Rudd is a threat to factions so they would be reluctant to draft him no matter how bad the polls.

    But Keating & Rudd a very good analogy.

    Now who does Gillard remind me of..

  5. Rudd needs some 60-40 polls this weekend to gain some momentum and change minds.

    His balloon is deflating pretty badly at the moment and looks like crash landing on the poor saps who backed him.

  7. [Rudd says I expect journalists to keep conversations I have had with them secret.]

    This creates a problem for journalists though. If they ever want politicians, or anybody for that matter to talk to them, or whistleblow to them…then they would need to keep confidence. But if they tattle, then they will get nothing of much interest.

    But if they decide the will reveal stuff then they must do it for everyone all the time, otherwise they would be making political choices.

  8. [ Tom Hawkins
    Posted Friday, February 24, 2012 at 5:21 pm | Permalink
    That poll has a lower primary vote for Labor than at the 2010 election.

    Labor won\’t win an election with a lower primary vote than last time.

    20 months]

    Yep. More time than is required to bring two fetuses to term sequentially. That’s a lot of time for teh peeps to put-up with the endless Abbott dog and pony show.

    You can’t tell me there is no chance of the polls moving to the Government in that time, particularly as those magic tax cuts and pension increases kick-in.

  10. The angrier and more forthright Julia becomes the younger she looks.
    She should keep the temperature up. As BB just said there is plenty of opportunity with Abbott and several of the journo pack to aim at.

  17. [There is no more wet faction in the Liberal party. There’s the soft right, the hard right and the barking-mad tea-party Bernardi faction. That’s it.]

    I have to admit that it seems that way, but I don’t think we are presented with more mainstream Lib opinions because Julia has done so poorly that they can get away with this ominous lurch.

  19. The menu in Canberra for Monday

    1. A big Sh*t Sandwich

    Chow down caucus- and enjoy! Whatever the outcome it will taste the same!!!!

  20. [This creates a problem for journalists though. If they ever want politicians, or anybody for that matter to talk to them, or whistleblow to them…then they would need to keep confidence. But if they tattle, then they will get nothing of much interest.]
    An admission Rudd did so against Gillard?
    Gillard has given the journos permission to tell on her. They haven’t done so. Rudd hasn’t given them such permission.

  21. [This creates a problem for journalists though. If they ever want politicians, or anybody for that matter to talk to them, or whistleblow to them…then they would need to keep confidence. But if they tattle, then they will get nothing of much interest.

    But if they decide the will reveal stuff then they must do it for everyone all the time, otherwise they would be making political choices]

    It’s about perceptions and my question “what does Rudd have to hide” is rhetorical. Rudd looks like a liar by answering in the way he has. His denials to caucus members about his antics are now seen to be a nonsense. Gillard on the other hand exuded confidence that her record in this regard (i.e. party loyalty) can’t be faulted. Big win to JG.

  22. Not sure if already posted. I didn’t know Andrew felt this strongly about it…

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/opinion/post/-/blog/andrewprobyn/post/205/comment/1

    [Resurrection of Saint Kevin
    By Andrew Probyn
    February 24th, 2012, 7:59 am

    No one does victimhood like Kevin Rudd. Forget the fact he’s the bloke who calls the Prime Minister “the bitch” – or worse – behind her back, to senior figures in industry, to newspaper editors and to members of the Press Gallery.
    Forget the fact that he’s lying when he denies briefing journalists a fortnight ago about a two-step challenge to Julia Gillard.
    And disregard the fact that his campaign to destabilise and usurp the PM began many months ago.

    No, Kevin’s the victim here. He’s the People’s Prince, Saint Kevin the Wrongly Maligned.

    Give us a break.

    The reason Mr Rudd does victimhood so well is twofold and really not that complicated.

    Firstly, he is a gifted public performer of such chameleonic abilities that Sir Laurence Olivier would have been an admirer.

    Secondly, and more importantly, Mr Rudd does victimhood so well because of the circumstances of his downfall.]
    a lot more in the article

  24. Diogenes
    [His balloon is deflating pretty badly at the moment and looks like crash landing on the poor saps who backed him.]
    Looking at the supposed numbers his balloon is looking more like the Hindenburg.

  26. GARY:

    Rudd said the following:

    [He said the ALP should allow its members to elect their leader with a ‘‘truly secret ballot’’ without people ‘‘looking over their shoulder’’ in what he said was a ‘‘time-honoured tradition’’ in some sections of the Labor Party.]

  27. [Which one is correct?]

    I’d trust Frank’s numbers any day. If nothing else he hasn’t double counted individuals stated intentions like some of our multi-billion dollar media have.

  28. [His balloon is deflating pretty badly at the moment and looks like crash landing on the poor saps who backed him.]

    Marne would be just the cheery face to see, with nut pain.

  30. So Rudd has disparaged gillard to a journalist.
    1. who would blame him she backstabbed him
    2. gillard and 80% of her front bench have tipped bucketloads on the guy in front of the entire aust public.

  32. Gary

    It is NOT a secret ballot. Each person shows their vote to the one behind – in their faction – or sometimes the vote is handed to a factional whip

    It is a disgraceful system and a blot upon the Labor party. Not sure WHEN this system got started but I suspect it is the last 20 years or so.

    It is used at conference etc

  33. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Labor end up getting a bit of a boost from the leadership kerfuffle.

    Firstly, for the first time in months journos have actually been reporting Labor people talking about what Labor people have done, rather than Abbott’s running commentary as the lead story.

    Secondly, the Rudd destabilisation will have been put back in the box, at least for a while.

    Thirdly it will focus Julia Gillard more on selling the politics and less on the policy for a while.

    Plenty of time til the next election. This could well be the circuit breaker they need.

  34. [So Rudd has disparaged gillard to a journalist.]

    Try ‘journalists’ and not just once but repeatedly over many months. He also inflicted Abbott PM on us. You might think that’s OK. I don’t.

  36. [Bushfire Bill
    Posted Friday, February 24, 2012 at 5:37 pm | Permalink
    Frank’s blog still lists Rudd at 16 and Gillard at 61. Yet the media have it closer than that. Which one is correct?]

    That list from Finns on the Franker Blog is based on what members have unequivocally disclosed as their intention.

    Obviously there are still 25 caucus members who are yet to tweet their position or to publicly announce it to the press scum. These include Albo.

    The MSM hacks appear to be guessing the allegiances of the final 25 based on, I dunno, tea leaves or something.

    In the unlikley event they all break for Rudd, he gets to 41 and still loses.

    This, however, seems as likely as pigs flying.

    If they break 50/50, he gets to about 29 or 30.

  37. Smithe I think Turnbull still has fair support in the opposition but they are unlikely to do anything while the polls are the way they are. There is a lot of support for Turnbull in the real world.

  40. smithe,

    The Frank view blog is slightly out. There are four that need to be added. I did have a list on a post it note that I was going to let Frank know about but I’e lost the post it! Doh!

  41. [ This is a politician who gets things done so they stay done. ]

    Gawd, BB, I hope they stay done. As always, good stuff. Remember how the Libs tried to dismantle Medibank? IIRC, it then became Medicare? With a private extension to allow a “private” arm to wrestle profit from the halt and lame. Disgusting.

  43. This is a very simple matter for Labor MPs to think about before voting on Monday.

    Who is able to communicate better with caucus members and the party generally? GILLARD

    Who is best able to communicate with the electorate and outline a program for the future of the country and get Labor support moving up again? RUDD

    Who wants to retain their seats and perhaps stay in Government in 2013? THEY ALL DO.

    I don’t care if Rudd is a bastard and Gillard is a bitch, or that Rudd tittle-tattled to the media and Gillard did not.

    RUDD IS THE ANSWER.

  47. Reality check, folks:

    You know how Rudd is the ALP’s saviour? Check out what is REALLY happening …

    Prime Minister Satisfaction/Dissatisfaction/Uncommitted

    June 18-20, 2010 36/55/9 (Rudd)
    February 10-12, 2012 36/52/12 (Gillard)

    Not quite as clear cut as we are led to believe, eh?

  50. Space

    [I did have a list on a post it note that I was going to let Frank know about but I’e lost the post it!]

    Quick, check the kids’ lunchboxes. You could be up for show and tell on Monday!

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