Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition; Nielsen on preferred Labor leader

GhostWhoVotes reports that Galaxy and Nielsen have dipped toes into the murky polling waters, the former with a complete set of results and the latter with numbers on preferred Labor leader. Galaxy’s poll was conducted yesterday and today, and the voting intention figures are essentially unchanged on the previous poll four weeks ago: the Coalition two-party preferred lead is unchanged at 54-46, from primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor (unchanged), 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one) and 12 per cent for the Greens (unchanged). Interestingly, a question on voting intention if Kevin Rudd were Labor leader has produced far less dramatic results than when Nielsen conducted a similar exercise last September. The Coalition lead would narrow to 51-49, a three-point improvement in Labor’s position rather than the 10-point improvement in Nielsen.

On preferred Labor leader, Nielsen has it at 58-34 in Rudd’s favour (it was 57-35 at the poll a fortnight ago) compared with 52-26 from Galaxy (52-30 a month ago), suggesting the two were doing different things with respect to allocating respondents to the undecided category. Galaxy’s result points to a dramatic swing in favour of Rudd among Labor supporters, from 49-48 in Gillard’s favour a month ago to 53-39 in Rudd’s favour now. That the shift among all voters is less dramatic presumably suggests that support for Rudd among Coalition supporters has dropped.

The Galaxy poll also finds that 57 per cent believe the independents should force an early election if Rudd becomes leader, but it is not clear how many would prefer that in any case. Full tables from Galaxy here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

670 comments on “Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition; Nielsen on preferred Labor leader”

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  1. [Boerwar with the character assessments again!
    How about a psychological profile of Julia Gillard? That’d make for fascinating reading.
    Or better yet…….Wayne Swan.]

    I sincerely doubt you’d find anything in either of their psychological profiles that would come anywhere near to Rudd’s.

  2. A vote of thanks to the RW newbies. With all their comments, Crikey might be able to afford something to counter the DoSS that seems to have come its way.

  4. [That ain’t nothing compared to his chosing Cate Blanchett’s baby over the funeral of John Button.]

    That was odd to say the least.

    As is actor Rhys Muldoon’s ascension to the commentariat as a political player and cheersquad for Rudd.

    All Rudd’s spruikers are outside parliament, and therefore have no vote in Monday’s ballot. When will the msm twigg?

  6. [Good news for you is tomorrow you graduate to pineapples.]
    Mr Growler, in a few years not only will you be able to have sex with your boyfriend\’s anus, but you will be able to marry him too.

  7. [Another must read article – ‘Time we heard the truth about Kevin’]

    Well John Buttons son. It is only the beginning. Also Laurie Oakes and others. Soon there will be a feeding frenzy. It is interesting that the most serious allegation against Gillard, while seriously and viciously followed up, hardly wound her much anymore. It is almost like the a slashing at an invisible shield – on;y damaging so far and no father. Rudd OTOH will succumb totally in the face of the smallest adversity. You watch, a leopard doe not change its spots.

  8. Dio
    While that is true about CEOs my experience was that drs with that tendency is that while they can be superficially charming they have terrible bed side manners = unsuccessful private practice = academia or administration.

  10. If a Liberal PM had put Cate’s baby ahead of a person’s funeral the left would have gone nuts over it and claimed that it was a sign of arrogance and contempt for working families

  14. gusface
    [poroti

    look i am only saying lets keep to the politics

    the ephemera is the domain of the msm]
    Rudd chosing Cate over Button was a very political statement by Rudd.

  15. All I know is I have had one call from a family member who will vote Lib instead of Labor from now on. Voted labor for 40 years.

    It was late and some liquor consumed but??

  16. [It is almost like the a slashing at an invisible shield – on;y damaging so far and no father. Rudd OTOH will succumb totally in the face of the smallest adversity. You watch, a leopard doe not change its spots.]
    Actually, the public simply won\’t take attacks on Rudd\’s character seriously because the attack\’s are being made by a deeply unpopular government full of deeply unpopular people like Julia Gillard and Wayne Swan.

  20. I hope Swan loses his seat at the next election – couldn’t happen to a more deserving person.
    This fruitcake is the one who’s mortally wounded the ALP this week, yet he’s lauded and praised by the Poll Bludger crowd.
    Oh I forgot, Rudd is to blame for everything! 😀

  21. [Actually, the public simply won\’t take attacks on Rudd\’s character seriously because the attack\’s are being made by a deeply unpopular government full of deeply unpopular people like Julia Gillard and Wayne Swan.]

    Isn’t that called the appeal to shallowness? 😉 Seriously, its not much of a defense given what’s starting to come out about ‘K Rudd’s’ time in government.

  22. OC

    Self promotion is a hallmark. They have a very poor bedside manner as the patient only exists as a means for self glorification. The patient is worthless to them as a human being.

  26. Yep Mexicanbeemer when you ask the anti-Gillards on PB (including the Mexican Ray Hadley) what she has done wrong. They give the admittedly silly policies she announced during the election and then come up with things like the cabinet reshuffle and appearing on4 corners. Yet Rudd’s behavioural problems were both common and legendary – this is just passed off as a foible.

  28. The whole Button essay is definitely worth reading, but this part struck me. I’ve already said it a couple of times (so I hope my repetition isn’t too boring 😉 ), but its more evidence that the whole ‘Gillard knifed Rudd’ story is really just a massive stabbed-in-the-back myth, pushed by those who have an interest in tearing down the Government.

    [As I say, I hardly know Julia Gillard. But from my own impressions and conversations with people who know her well and who have worked for her, I believe she is a decent person. She is warm, she is smart. She listens to people, treats them with respect. She has shown guts. Under relentless pressure, she has run a happy office.

    I have no idea of the precise moment at which she decided to challenge Rudd, but I am certain that she had been as loyal a deputy as he was likely to get. Through the hard months of early 2010, she had long talks with him to keep him on track. Of all the whisperings I heard against Rudd until the time I left Canberra in April 2010, none involved her. In fact, she protected him. As one of her advisers said, they were ”joined at the hip”.

    But she also knew what Rudd was like. In mid-2010, I imagine, she saw him spinning out, saw the polls, saw an election approaching, believed that in this climate his capacity for chaos was likely to grow rather than diminish. This was not about ambition. Sure she might have wanted to be prime minister one day, but not under these circumstances, not with the consequences that were bound to follow. But in politics you don’t get to pick your moment, it picks you. Hers came. She took it.

    What she and others failed to do was explain why. This was a task of almost unimaginable difficulty. She had been his deputy; she shared responsibility for the state of the government. I also imagine she did not want to add to Rudd’s pain by stressing his flaws. And she would not be human had she not also felt some guilt. Nevertheless, the coup was an act of extreme political violence. It had to be explained in ideas and language that measured up to the act. She had to find words to tell Australians about the crisis Rudd had created – then send him to the backbench.

    There was no chance, in that moment, of reparation or reconciliation. No chance the act could be explained as merely the unfortunate result of a good government losing its way. In that moment, when the story was not told, the insider-outsider gap of Australian politics became a chasm.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/we-need-to-talk-about-kevin-20120224-1ttxx.html#ixzz1nJ9Iiqt3
    ]

    I’m also intrigued that he’s writing a book about the experience.

  30. GG

    There would be lots running blogs but very few as posters. They aren’t the centre of attention on a blog and people would make them spit the dummy by disagreeing with them. They would leave very quickly.

  31. [Isn’t that called the appeal to shallowness? 😉 Seriously, its not much of a defense given what’s starting to come out about ‘K Rudd’s’ time in government.]
    The more Gillard allows these attacks to continue the more it simply shows that she showed a complete lack of judgement in appointing Rudd as minister for foreign affairs.

  33. [FFS GG and Greentard, will you two knock it off?

    These bottie jokes are getting really old.]
    OK, I am sorry.

    But I want to be clear on the record that I support the right of Mr Growler to marry his long term male sexual partner.

  35. I hope Swan loses his seat at the next election – couldn’t happen to a more deserving person.
    This fruitcake is the one who’s mortally wounded the ALP this week

    First sentence. Fine to voice your opinion.

    Second sentence. You postulate a consequence. Care to expand on give us a clue about the cause?

  36. of course swan will lose his seat, what’s there to hope for?

    You know one angle is that the MP’s believe they will get anhiliated and can’t be saved, so why serve under Rudd? I think that is in the minds of those with experience. Why suffer as well for the next 18 months?

  39. [ This little black duck
    Posted Saturday, February 25, 2012 at 12:54 am | Permalink
    smithe,

    Whenever I see “smithe” I think of E E (Doc) Smith of Lensman fame.]

    Careful duckie, the DeLameters and infinite repeaters are fully loaded.

  41. [The more Gillard allows these attacks to continue the more it simply shows that she showed a complete lack of judgement in appointing Rudd as minister for foreign affairs.]

    If Latham’s to be believed (and after the last week’s revelations I think he is on this matter), what actually happened is that Rudd demanded minister for foreign affairs in exchange for stopping his leaks. So its not fair to blame Gillard for his behaviour.

  43. Even though I am a Rudd supporter, I agree that after the ballot on monday the entire party should support Julia Gillard so that she can ultimately resign when she realises she can\’t win the next election.

  44. smithe,

    I just loved how bigger the bangs got through the seven (?) books. I donated all those paperbacks to my science fiction mad son.

  45. [If Latham’s to be believed (and after the last week’s revelations I think he is on this matter), what actually happened is that Rudd demanded minister for foreign affairs in exchange for stopping his leaks. So its not fair to blame Gillard for his behaviour.]
    Well that doesn\’t hold up because Paule Howes demonstrated in his book that Labor\’s poll numbers fell off a cliff well before any leaks.

    And Laurie Oakes said at the NPC that he didn\’t get his material from anyone associated with Rudd.

  46. Gee i haven’t heard “i have voted Labor for n>30 years but after x I will never vote for them again” for at least 10 days.
    In any case TLM you didn’t vote for the RHB last time so how do we know that anyone up at Waco votes Labor

  48. gusface
    [poroti

    thats a value judgement

    anyways lets just stick to the politics]
    The leader of the Labor party chosing to visit a movie star’s baby rather than the funeral of a Labor stalwart involves a little more than a “value judgement”.It was a deliberate insult. He could have visited Cate the day after ,the baby sure as hell would not have noticed 🙁

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