Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition

Morgan has got in a day early with its face-to-face poll, again publishing a result from one weekend of polling rather than combining two for a fortnightly result as it had been doing for the previous four months. The figures show Labor hanging on to about half of the eyebrow-raising improvement they recorded in last week’s poll. On the primary vote Labor is at 36.5 per cent, which is down three points on last week and up one on the result of the previous fortnightly poll. The Coalition is up half a point to 44 per cent, after dropping from 46.5 per cent to 43.5 per cent last time. The Greens have gone from 10 per cent to 11 per cent and back to 10 per cent. On the more reliable two-party preferred measure which distributes minor party and independent preferences according to the result of the previous election, the result has gone from parity to a 51.5-48.5 lead to the Coalition. The measure which allocates preferences according to how respondents say they will vote records the Coalition lead increasing from 52.5-47.5 to 53.5-46.5.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,498 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition”

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  2. ModLib

    because they should be out there working to keep their seat.

    Anyone who relies on the leader to pull them through doesn’t deserve to be there anyway.

  4. Mod Lib
    [Why not? Voting to change leaders may be the best way to improve your chances.]
    The logic is there – which is why it is being actively considered by many parliamentary party members.

  6. [zoomster

    Posted Sunday, October 23, 2011 at 8:22 pm | Permalink

    ModLib

    because they should be out there working to keep their seat.

    Anyone who relies on the leader to pull them through doesn’t deserve to be there anyway.
    ]

    Exactly.

  7. zoomster@2304

    [ What interests me is the level of desperation this shows. Why is a carbon price so scary? Why do people need to feel convinced that it can be repealed? ]

    It’s not the carbon price per se that many people find so threatening. It’s global warming itself. It terrifies a lot of people – not because of the climatic consequences, but because it threatens their core beliefs.

    Supporting a carbon price = acknowledging global warming.

    For some people this is anathema because it undermines their religious faith.

    For other people this is anathema because it undermines their pride (it demonstrates that humanity are not “lords of creation”, and that our ability to manage our planet is quite feeble – manage it CON-structively, I mean – we have no problems managing it DE-structively).

    For other people this is anathema because it undermines their economic philosophy (if the free market can’t solve it, then it must not be a problem – because the free market can solve ANYTHING! … can’t it?)

    For other people this is anathema because it undermines their political philosophy (it’s all a gigantic conspiracy between the Greens and the Lefties!).

    There are other reasons. And the reality (or otherwise) of global warming simply gets lost in there for a lot of people.

    They’d rather take the ostrich option.

  8. [zoomster
    Posted Sunday, October 23, 2011 at 8:22 pm | Permalink
    ModLib

    because they should be out there working to keep their seat.]

    Like Perrett?

  9. [The logic is there – which is why it is being actively considered by many parliamentary party members.]

    Yep the Greens and Libs are looking at the options.

  10. William Bowe @ 2318:

    [Charlton, you aren’t allowed to call another commenter a “wanker” except in circumstances of extraordinary provocation. There is nothing “arbitrary” about it. Now grow up pleaser]

    Fair enough, it’s your site, your home and I accoringly apoligise for calling “Outsider” a wangker and name dropper.

  12. Another tragedy on the track. This time the moto GP Marco Simoncelli came off his bike and was hit by other bikes. One ridden by Valentino Rossi. RIP

  13. Mod Lib

    ? Sorry, can’t see why you’re raising Perrett.

    And I’ll put direct involvement in over a dozen campaigns up against confected wisdom about how voters act any day.

    As I said, I’m talking about friends of mine. They retained their seat against the odds. They didn’t rely on the leader’s performance to pull them through.

    If they had, they’d have been gone last State election.

  14. vic

    I was watching it live. It was absolutely shocking. Colin Edwards and Rossi (who both couldn’t avoid it) smashed straight into him coming out of a turn and the next thing I saw was Simoncelli’s helmet rolling off down the track with Simoncelli motionless in the middle of the track. RIP

  17. victoria

    For all I’m good at campaigning (which I can say with due modesty) I’m notoriously bad at predicting results!!

    And, of course, anyone from Victoria has difficulty understanding the political thinking elsewhere; we’ve avoided the kind of poison that NSW and QLD Labor have been dealing with.

    Anyone who holds a marginal seat, however, should – out of common sense, if nothing greater – be out campaigning almost constantly.

    (Bill Shorten, I’m told, does this, despite having a huge margin. The joke is that he won’t be satisfied with anything less than a 95% primary…)

  18. madcyril

    My OH was watching in the other room. I was attending to kitchen duties. OH said they have called off race. When I heard that, I instinctively knew someone had died. I know it is a risky sport, but it has left me cold tonight. I found Simoncelli very endearing. I actually feel sick in my stomach.

  20. zoomster

    Yes it does seem less poisonous here in Vic. I have not detected the anger towards the govt here at all. Maybe I am tuning out any negativity. I would agree that MPs should be attending to their electorate as much as possible

  21. [zoomster

    Posted Sunday, October 23, 2011 at 8:40 pm | Permalink

    victoria

    For all I’m good at campaigning (which I can say with due modesty) I’m notoriously bad at predicting results!!

    And, of course, anyone from Victoria has difficulty understanding the political thinking elsewhere; we’ve avoided the kind of poison that NSW and QLD Labor have been dealing with.

    Anyone who holds a marginal seat, however, should – out of common sense, if nothing greater – be out campaigning almost constantly.

    (Bill Shorten, I’m told, does this, despite having a huge margin. The joke is that he won’t be satisfied with anything less than a 95% primary…)
    ]

    Which was the case in WA in 2008 with people like John quigley inccreasing their margin.

  23. vic

    Yes, I’m still in shock I think. I liked Simoncelli a lot too. I have to add, much respect to Channel Ten, Greg Rust, Darryl Beattie and the British commentators at the track. They didn’t show endless gratuitous replays of the incident or speculate on how Simoncelli was until they had firm news. The did well under the circumstances.

  25. [
    victoria

    Posted Sunday, October 23, 2011 at 8:43 pm | Permalink

    zoomster

    Yes it does seem less poisonous here in Vic. I have not detected the anger towards the govt here at all. Maybe I am tuning out any negativity. I would agree that MPs should be attending to their electorate as much as possible

    ]

    Which I must admit is hard if you aee a Minister or Premier/PM.

  26. madcyril

    I cant bear to see any replays or the like. I feel gutted to be honest. He was such a charasmatic character with a great smile. So sad.

  27. Frank Calabrese

    Of course, those with big portfollios are going to have a huge workload. But it is important for them to do their best to connect with their electorate.

  28. Frank

    I’m very proud to say that two of the Vic members I’m talking about were Ministers.

    And – because they were always seen as vulnerable – the Nats spent absolute fortunes in their seats every election.

    To hold ‘unwinnable’ seats for Labor in those circumstances shows what troopers they are!

  29. Kezza2
    [How does one find out the actual division in the Senate on the Banking Amendment (Covered Bonds) Bill 2011 referred to below?]

    The bill passed on13 Oct and was assented to on the 17/10. Couldn’t find the actual vote but the Greens opposed it and would have voted against it.
    http://adam-bandt.greensmps.org.au/content/media-release/bandt-oppose-covered-bonds-bill
    [Greens’ banking spokesperson, Adam Bandt MP, says the government’s covered bonds bill will shift risk on to Australian depositors and the public purse.

    Mr Bandt says the Banking Amendment (Covered Bonds) Bill, due to be voted on in Parliament today, will also benefit the big four banks at the expense of smaller financial institutions and that Australian Greens will oppose the bill.]

  32. [victoria

    congratulations to the Kiwis]
    Jeez how many heart attacks would there have been in both countries watching the last half ?

  34. [“Oh, pretty well exactly what you tell me when we’re down for holidays, Poppy Bushfire”

    “You mean all that raving I do makes some sense to you?”

    “Of course. Why wouldn’t it?”

    I adore that boy.]

    You are a very lucky man BB.

  35. victoria

    [poroti

    There will be some disappointed folk in France today]
    After a game like that no matter who won there was going to be a huge disapointment.Both teams deserverd to win.

  36. [Ya reckon the Kiwi PM will get in again in 4 weeks time when da election happens]

    Nah, Craig Joubert will be elected PM…

  39. [It was and anyone who had skin in the game will have no fingernails left.]

    Even for those who had no skin in the game, it was a great final.

  43. BB

    every now and again, I get to teach Civics in Victoria (it’s part of the Year 7 course).

    Each time I do, I hold a mock election.

    Another class is selected to be the voters, and my class arranges itself into parties (there’s always a couple of independents).

    There’s no real incentive, other than winning – I don’t offer prizes – because the aim is to teach them about some of the electoral rules etc.

    But it’s almost frightening how quickly these angelic little children turn into the worst kind of politician. Winning is all, and they show far fewer scruples about doing this than most adults.

    Apart from the usual – letterboxing lockers, speeches, posters – bribery and corruption is rampant.

    And after the election, the losers all sing the same tune – “They didn’t have any real policies, miss, they just offered everybody lollies!” “They only voted for him ‘cos he’s in the football team!”

  44. [Peg

    How does one find out the actual division in the Senate on the Banking Amendment (Covered Bonds) Bill 2011 referred to below?

    The bill passed on13 Oct and was assented to on the 17/10. Couldn’t find the actual vote but the Greens opposed it and would have voted against it.
    http://adam-bandt.greensmps.org.au/content/media-release/bandt-oppose-covered-bonds-bill

    ]

    Senate Journals record the divisions in the Senate. this one passed on the voices, see p1637 of:

    http://aph.gov.au/Senate/work/journals/jnlp_059.pdf

  45. http://dragonistasblog.com/2011/10/23/is-the-tide-turning-for-tony-abbott/

    Not sure if this has been posted before…

    [Is the tide turning for Tony Abbott?
    October 23, 2011

    It’s a truism in politics that while one opinion poll might evoke an interesting point, it’s the trend in poll findings that reveals much more.

    The same could be said for opinion pieces written by journalists who report federal politics. Each piece has its own merit (or not), but when there’s a trend in the opinion being advanced, then this is something worth noticing.

    Why? Because the appearance of a theme in a string of opinion pieces suggests, not that several journalists autonomously and simultaneously came to the same conclusion, but that an external action or actor initiated that thought.

    The external factor could range from something as innocent as journalists musing aloud to colleagues over coffee, to something more Machiavellian like a political operative briefing against opponents. Either way, it’s worth taking note when a trend appears in political opinion pieces.]

    More in the article. Worth a read.

  47. I’m pretty sure that channel 9 has broken all records for worst coverage of a major sporting event with their pathetic coverage of the Rugby World Cup. I mean, thirty seconds after the dreaded Kiwis (the bastards) win their first Cup in 24 years, channel 9 switches to Underbelly.

    Could it be more obvious that they simply wished, by buying the broadcast rights, to keep competitors at bay and protect their other programs?

    Fair dinkum. Underbelly instead of seeing the Kiwis (the bastards) lift the trophy?

    Outrageous.

  49. sprocket_

    Yes, I saw that page. Last line of entry is:
    [On the motion of Senator Feeney the bill was read a third time.]
    Nothing about being put to a vote, as far as I can see. Am I missing something?

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