Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition

Morgan has got in a day early with its face-to-face poll, again publishing a result from one weekend of polling rather than combining two for a fortnightly result as it had been doing for the previous four months. The figures show Labor hanging on to about half of the eyebrow-raising improvement they recorded in last week’s poll. On the primary vote Labor is at 36.5 per cent, which is down three points on last week and up one on the result of the previous fortnightly poll. The Coalition is up half a point to 44 per cent, after dropping from 46.5 per cent to 43.5 per cent last time. The Greens have gone from 10 per cent to 11 per cent and back to 10 per cent. On the more reliable two-party preferred measure which distributes minor party and independent preferences according to the result of the previous election, the result has gone from parity to a 51.5-48.5 lead to the Coalition. The measure which allocates preferences according to how respondents say they will vote records the Coalition lead increasing from 52.5-47.5 to 53.5-46.5.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,498 thoughts on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition”

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  5. Channel 9 now reporting in their News promo there is UPROAR over the Prime Minister’s refusal to curtsey. They forgot to mention it’s only the cretins amongst us who are complaining.

    I actually think this will do Julia no harm at all. Indeed it will probably earn her a few brownie points from the dinki di Aussies.

  7. From the previous thread:

    Oh FFS:

    ABCNews24ABC News 24

    Do you think it was right that @CwealthOmb @AllanAsher resigned over his scripted Senate questions for @Greens? Best tweets used on #TheDrum

    1 minute agoFavoriteRetweetReply

  10. Feeling very Churchillian about this. The hinge of fate and all that. Not just the poll but the desperate sound in the LOTO’s voice on, and since, Carbon Day, and the fact that the Member for Wentworth still bothers to stay in Parliament.

    “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end, but it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”

    Or just a little more strongly:

    “Before Alamein we never had a victory. After Alamein, we never had a defeat.”

  13. The Commonwealth Ombudsman mission statement.

    …fostering good public administration that is accountable, lawful, fair, transparent and responsive

    What is transparent about meeting with a politican to script questions. The sad thing is the Greens do not see they did the wrong thing, SHY should have said no Mr Asher it is not proper.

  14. ruawake

    Posted Thursday, October 20, 2011 at 5:52 pm | Permalink

    The Commonwealth Ombudsman mission statement.

    …fostering good public administration that is accountable, lawful, fair, transparent and responsive

    What is transparent about meeting with a politican to script questions. The sad thing is the Greens do not see they did the wrong thing, SHY should have said no Mr Asher it is not proper

    Did St Bob exprees outrage over Godwin Grench ?

  16. Lynchpin

    Posted Thursday, October 20, 2011 at 5:55 pm | Permalink

    The Headline “Off With Her Head”.

    The ABC is reduced to this BS? Pathetic.

    Yep.

    Off with her head: Gillard’s greeting a royal mess
    By Brigid Andersen
    Updated October 20, 2011 16:53:06

  20. charlton

    gusface @ 1322 (previous thread):

    charlton

    seismic is the better word

    abbott has made another srs mistake

    We are in agreement again.

    Other than this:

    And let us not pretend this has always been easy. In 2002 it was Air Marshal Houston, the then Chief of Air Force, who was asked in his first appearance at a Senate estimates committee about whether he, as the Acting CDF, had informed the then defence minister there was no evidence to support the children overboard claims. I remember that afternoon well, as I asked Angus those questions. No-one should be surprised that, regardless of the consequences, he answered forthrightly and honestly. The headline ‘Houston, we have a problem’ was inevitable. The no-nonsense approach that day was typical of Angus Houston, who has earned and deserves such a strong reputation for his integrity and decency.

    – I can’t recall another occasion where a senior officer has had the guts to enter the political fray, albeit on the ostensible basis of looking after the safety of the men & women under his command.

  21. Darn @ 5

    I actually think this will do Julia no harm at all. Indeed it will probably earn her a few brownie points from the dinki di Aussies.

    I agree, the only people that would be offended are the ” Born to Rule ” types.

  23. Perhaps Rudd will mount a populist challenge to Gillard’s leadership based on this unacceptable display of bad manners to the Queen.

  25. Channel 7 really pushing the curtsy story hard. Apparently JG did the wrong thing before nearly 70% of the people in their poll thought she did. Then they had that etiquette ‘expert’ on for a few quotes as well as quoting a few ‘average people’ who mysteriously all thought it was disrespectful. The part about it not even being required anymore was mentioned but only in passing.

  27. “I did but see her passing by, and yet I love her till I die”.

    Isn’t it lovely to have our Queen in Australia once more. Shame on Ms Gillard for not showing proper respect but brownie points to Tim who did.

    I’m back Bludgers but for two weeks only. I trust you are all well.
    On my travels to Japan and PNG I survived two earthquakes, an active volcano and civil unrest in Mt Hagen. I am not green from Fukushima and I still have all my hair so all is well with me which will no doubt disappoint many on PB.

    I trust Ms Gillard is now blaming T. Abbott for new boat arrivals???

  31. Couldn’t help but notice that all of the those complaining about the lack of a curtsey seemed to be elderly women – a demographic that votes heavily for the Libs anyway.

  33. THE Greens have accused the major parties of waging a vendetta against the Commonwealth Ombudsman because he tried to tell the truth about conditions inside immigration detention centres.

    Problem is the Ombudsman has responsibility for:

    The Ombudsman is also the Immigration Ombudsman with responsibility for reviewing the cases of long-term detainees.

    Asher at least realised he did the wrong thing. Bob Brown should do the same.

  36. Couldn’t help but notice that all of the those complaining about the lack of a curtsey seemed to be elderly women – a demographic that votes heavily for the Libs anyway.

    Darn
    Only this morning Mrs BK and I were in a bakery in a nearby town having a quiet coffee when I looked around and could see so many “oldies’ who would fit the bill as “rusted ons”. I said to my good, lady “There’s no way we could become like them, could we?”

  38. “The lowest point of her life,” according to JD-W, when Gillard didn’t curtsey.

    Just a point, June, if she had curtsied she would have been lower (top of the head thingy).

  41. BK

    Darn
    Only this morning Mrs BK and I were in a bakery in a nearby town having a quiet coffee when I looked around and could see so many “oldies’ who would fit the bill as “rusted ons”. I said to my good, lady “There’s no way we could become like them, could we?”

    Of course not.For a start you give your mental faculties regular work outs ! 🙂

  43. Channel 7 really pushing the curtsy story hard. Apparently JG did the wrong thing before nearly 70% of the people in their poll thought she did. Then they had that etiquette ‘expert’ on for a few quotes as well as quoting a few ‘average people’ who mysteriously all thought it was disrespectful. The part about it not even being required anymore was mentioned but only in passing.

    Channel 9 in Melbourne was much the same

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