Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition

Morgan has got in a day early with its face-to-face poll, again publishing a result from one weekend of polling rather than combining two for a fortnightly result as it had been doing for the previous four months. The figures show Labor hanging on to about half of the eyebrow-raising improvement they recorded in last week’s poll. On the primary vote Labor is at 36.5 per cent, which is down three points on last week and up one on the result of the previous fortnightly poll. The Coalition is up half a point to 44 per cent, after dropping from 46.5 per cent to 43.5 per cent last time. The Greens have gone from 10 per cent to 11 per cent and back to 10 per cent. On the more reliable two-party preferred measure which distributes minor party and independent preferences according to the result of the previous election, the result has gone from parity to a 51.5-48.5 lead to the Coalition. The measure which allocates preferences according to how respondents say they will vote records the Coalition lead increasing from 52.5-47.5 to 53.5-46.5.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,498 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition”

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  1. Duck,

    that makes the raw odds 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1 in 16. and if Julie Bishop led the Libs it would be 1 in 32… but the way the world works (especially the royal family – I think they are trying to change that) we know the odds are much higher.

  3. victoria,

    If he is “stable” he’ll come through OK. it’s when a patient is going downhill and they have to operate that things get tough.

  4. [GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll Electorate of Lyne 2 Party Preferred: Oakeshott 45 NAT 55 #auspol
    4 minutes ago

    GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll Electorate of New England 2 Party Preferred: Windsor 50 NAT 50 #auspol
    4 minutes ago]

  5. [GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll Electorate of New England 2 Party Preferred: Windsor 50 NAT 50 #auspol
    4 minutes ago

    GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll Electorate of Lyne 2 Party Preferred: Oakeshott 45 NAT 55 #auspol
    5 minutes ago]

    Interesting!

    See you all tomorrow night when the rest comes out (I assume)

  6. gordongraham Gordon Graham
    #Newspoll 2PP Respondent allocated preferences: Lyne: Oakeshott 38, National 62, New England: Windsor 47, National 53 #auspol
    37 seconds ago

  7. It would be an absolute shame if we lost these two great men at the next election.

    There’s still 2 years left so there’s hope… *sigh*

  9. Windsor is close to retirement and Oakeshott would not be a great loss however don’t underestimate the Nats ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

  10. [Seems to not be behind paywall]

    Of course not. They’re trying to push a message!

    That said, the main results may be interesting if this is the main story they’re pushing first rather than ‘GILLARD SUPER-DUPER UNPOPULAR’.

  11. David,

    I like your attitude and hope that if I’m ever rude to you you will remmember that. The centre seems to have become incredibly fickle since the advent of the smartphone, twitter, bloggs etc. I think it is much harder these days, even in comparison to the Howard years, for politicians to control their message. It’s all very well for Gillard to be compared to Hawke and Keating, but I think the comparison is not really very fair.

    To be honest I am happy with most of the ALP policy, and I admire Gillard for getting it done.

  13. [Another article, the oz are really gunning for them…]

    Subtle! I’m sure neither Windsor or Oakeshott will care that much though. They know the Oz hates them already.

  14. A small complimentary article in The Daily Terror

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/tony-windsors-home-electorate-in-carbon-tax-revolt/story-e6freuy9-1226174513844

    [Tony Windsor’s home electorate in carbon tax revolt
    Vikki Campion The Daily Telegraph October 24, 2011 12:00AM

    INDEPENDENT MP Tony Windsor’s electorate has revolted against the carbon tax, with the largest council in his seat calling for help to cope with the slug.

    Tamworth Council, which has a $3 million annual power bill set to go up 10 per cent under the carbon price, will this week move for special compensation in light of a cap on council rates.]

    More in the article, the headline is over the top given the info in it. probably went fishing for council’s reaction to the package and called that a “revolt”.

  15. [GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    @
    @__Cassandra___ Oakeshott’s primary vote is 26 (-21.1 from election), Windsor’s is 33 (-28.9) #Newspoll #auspol]

    Better than I expected for the poor sods actually. They are in with a very good chance at the election on these figures, whereas, I thought they were both dead…

  16. [Better than I expected for the poor sods actually. They are in with a very good chance at the election on these figures, whereas, I thought they were both dead…]

    I agree Mod…

  17. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/barracking-for-us-berating-europe-gillard-picks-her-side-of-economic-divide/story-fn59niix-1226174602316

    Interview with the PM in The Australian. Where’s this paywall?

    [Barracking for US, berating Europe: Gillard picks her side of economic divide
    by: Paul Kelly From: The Australian October 24, 2011 12:00AM

    ON the eve of a series of global economic talks, Julia Gillard says Barack Obama has “the right strategy” but that Europe has been “living beyond its means” and its leaders must fix their fiscal crisis.

    Interviewed by The Australian at The Lodge yesterday, the Prime Minister shifted on Asia policy, saying the new East Asian Summit was now the optimal regional institution, not the Australian-initiated Asia-Pacific Economic Community.]

    Worth a look.

  18. Tobe I try not to take things said here to heart because I enjoy robust discussion and if you have a different opinion then you are going to cop some heat at times. What I don’t like is when abuse brings families into discussions but I have never seen that happen here. So be assured I won’t get offended.

  19. [According to preference flows allocated by respondents, Mr Oakeshott’s two-party-preferred support would be 38 per cent and Mr Windsor’s 47 per cent. If those figures were based on the 2010 preference flow, however, their “best case” two-party support would rise to 45 per cent and 50 per cent respectively.]

    Ghost’s figures appear to be last election allocations (which I think in this instance are frought with danger given the massive change in sentiment). Based on the respondent allocated TPP, its not looking so good actually (ie 38%:62% for Oaky and 47%:53% for Windsor)

  20. The poll of 1008 voters in the two electorates, taken from last Tuesday to Saturday

    Does this mean 1008 voters in each electorate or 504 voters in each electorate? …

  21. ModLib I think these are 2 seats where the current preference allocations would be more valid as there appears to be general attitude swing in the seats.

  24. DavidWH

    I have been hankering for a poll in the indie’s seats for some time so this is fascinating. We will have to see what others find as no doubt this won’t be the last.

    If we get to 2 years they still have a chance of course, but if this parliament goes early, they appear to be cactus. This only steals their resolve to support the ALP ironically (which appears to be the very reason they are endangered). Isn’t politics intriguing?

  27. William:

    …since you are around…what do you think about the respondent allocated versus last election preference issue for the polling in the Indie’s seats?

  29. [ModLib I think these are 2 seats where the current preference allocations would be more valid as there appears to be general attitude swing in the seats.]

    Perhaps I am clutching at straws David, but the way primary vote flows into preferences is impossible to know. Unless there is some change in the way the primary canditades dictate their preferences then why expect a big change?

  32. [A difficult one, Mod Lib. When the primary vote has changed as much as it has here, they’re probably both flawed.]

    Ta.

    I guess you could argue it would be most likely ALP voters preferences being distributed mainly (rather than Nats) and maybe they would be more likely to do so if they thought the indies were “on side”? But the other independents preferences may be less likely to go that way…

    Will certainly be interesting to watch those seats pan out at the next election…

    Now, definitely heading off to bed. Good night all. 😉

  33. Well its been an interesting day, and weekend, all round. Not quite the rugby result I wanted, but sacre bleu, the French were extraordinary. An interesting week ahead methinks. And enough said re Charlton….

  34. Tobe they are difficult seats to gauge because they are both traditional conservative seats but where there was general dissatisfaction with the Nats. It’s probably a combination of how they supported Labor together with the carbon tax so a number of factors feeding into the equation.

  35. DavidWH does reasoning well. My problem is that it pokes Labor policy from the side without giving chapter and verse.

    Grima Wormtongue on Labor, in my opinion.

  36. Interesting results from the Indies electorates. I’d have to say that i thought Oakeshott would be doing worse than this. Windsor’s result isn’t any surprise and he still seems to be within spitting distance. I wonder how these results would compare to any two ALP seats you’d care to name if polled at the moment?? Still, i wouldn’t be writing either of them off at the moment.

    Will be a VERY scrappy campaign there in 2013 i reckon.

  37. A question William. When polls are taken immediately before an election, which are more accurate, polled preferences or preferences based on the last election?

  39. TBLD I have been involved in plenty of discussions about Labor policy including AS and the carbon tax which are the big two so not sure where you are coming from?

  42. [Well its been an interesting day, and weekend, all round. Not quite the rugby result I wanted, but sacre bleu, the French were extraordinary.]

    A very exciting game.

    I love NZ… beautiful place… lovely people… and then there is rugby.

    It must be my Dad always in my ear about the Haka being a free kick before play. I noticed the commentary taking about the French breaking some “rule” walking over the halfway line while the NZ team was doing slit throat gestures with their fingers, which is just fine.

  43. [DavidWH

    Posted Monday, October 24, 2011 at 1:14 am | Permalink

    Tobe they seem to have caught the Morgan virus and have done it using both methods.]

    Handy that 🙂

  44. [A question William. When polls are taken immediately before an election, which are more accurate, polled preferences or preferences based on the last election?]

    Preferences based on the last election.

    [Doesn’t Newspoll usually use past preferences?]

    Yes, it has done so since it ruined a perfectly good set of primary vote figures on the eve of the 2004 election by applying a bodgy respondent-allocated preference distribution to them.

    [Tobe they seem to have caught the Morgan virus and have done it using both methods.]

    Which is what I would have done under the circumstances. Previous-election is clearly superior when you’re comparing one national election result to the next, since you’re comparing apples with apples. That’s not the case when you’re dealing with individual electorates, where you’ll get a different set of minor party and independent candidates running next time whose preferences might behave very differently to the last lot’s – especially when the projected primary vote results are so radically different from last time.

  46. BTW William, your hypothesis about the projected primary vote being so radical from the last is no different from my hypothesis that the centre is very fickle and volatile.

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