Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition

Morgan has got in a day early with its face-to-face poll, again publishing a result from one weekend of polling rather than combining two for a fortnightly result as it had been doing for the previous four months. The figures show Labor hanging on to about half of the eyebrow-raising improvement they recorded in last week’s poll. On the primary vote Labor is at 36.5 per cent, which is down three points on last week and up one on the result of the previous fortnightly poll. The Coalition is up half a point to 44 per cent, after dropping from 46.5 per cent to 43.5 per cent last time. The Greens have gone from 10 per cent to 11 per cent and back to 10 per cent. On the more reliable two-party preferred measure which distributes minor party and independent preferences according to the result of the previous election, the result has gone from parity to a 51.5-48.5 lead to the Coalition. The measure which allocates preferences according to how respondents say they will vote records the Coalition lead increasing from 52.5-47.5 to 53.5-46.5.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,498 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition”

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  1. Ahhh, Glen, you never fail to disappoint – don’t tell me you’re not only a right-winger but and anglophile/royalist to boot!

  2. GG @35…Some on Twitter agree with you:

    RT @AndrewBGreene: I’m pretty sure the PM would be getting more negative press if she HAD done a curtsy…

  3. I hope our PM gives the queen a little rub and pat on the back before she heads back to mother england. That’ll get all the royalists all hot and bothered. Another lèse-majesté, a la Keating

  4. I just love it when the people who show no respect for the office of the Australian PM are complaining about respect for the queen.
    Imagine the uproar had she said the queen should be put in a chaff bag and thrown out to sea.

  5. [Rua

    Where do you want to start? I am so over the curtsey!]

    Anywhere, you seem unable to comment on policy or political issues. Just urge and cause dissent.

  6. I think Bob Brown has completely overstepped the mark by labeling Allan Asher’s resignation a “political assassination.” He and his party have been caught out and in my view SHY should be referred to the Senate Privileges Committee.

    The fact is, as soon as it was revealed that Asher colluded with the Greens, he should have resigned. By delaying it, he’s forced the PM & other senior ministers to become involved, thereby politicising the affair.

    No matter how altruistic his motives may have been, Asher has shown he’s unsuited to the office of Ombudsman.

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/embattled-ombudsman-allan-asher-resigns-20111020-1m9hf.html

  7. This is good news:
    [The Department of Immigration says a number of teenage asylum seekers being housed at the Leonora Detention Centre could be moved into community care in Perth.

    A group of 72 teenage asylum seekers were sent to Leonora in the Goldfields in September, following delays to the Government’s Malaysian swap deal.

    Department spokeswoman Cian Manton says because the asylum seekers are in the 14 to 17 age bracket, the Government is looking to move them into community care.

    She says it would likely be in metropolitan centres like Perth.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-10-20/asylum-seekers-moved-into-community/3581616

  8. charlton,

    Hear! Hear!

    It’s at least good that Assher came to this conclusion. Brown is simply expending political capital ass covering for SHY. It’s a big one.

  9. [I think Bob Brown has completely overstepped the mark by labeling Allan Asher’s resignation a “political assassination.”]

    It sounds like the kind of thing Abbott would come out with.

  10. [Yes and I am very sorry that Allan Asher thought it necessary to resign. Apparently he is very highly thought of.]
    Yes, He did his job of scrutinising the government too well, including the appalling state of the immigration detention system with its high rates of self-harm and suicide amongst its detainees.

    For those interested in a different perspective….

    1. John Wood, an international ombudsman consultant, and a former deputy Commonwealth ombudsman: http://inside.org.au/time-for-an-independent-ombudsman/
    [It’s a dark day for the Office of the Commonwealth Ombudsman, and not for the reasons parroted in the media about Allan Asher’s faux pas in collaborating with a Greens senator to raise questions about his resources.]
    2. With the intent of strengthening the Ombudsman’s position, Senator Bob Brown will be presenting a bill to amend the Public Accounts and Audit Committee Act when the parliament resumes in 12 days time.
    http://bob-brown.greensmps.org.au/content/media-release/greens-act-defend-ombudsman-and-strengthen-his-position
    It will be interesting to see how the two major parties vote.

    3. Comments by Greens senator, Scott Ludlam who appeared on Capital Hill today.

    4. Comments by Bruce Haigh who appeared on The Drum today.

    He said wtte that Asher was bullied and should have stood his ground and not resigned.
    Bio: http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/bruce-haigh-28220.html

  11. Lizzie two-stroke’s being here is a Good Thing.

    It gives Oz a bit of a party atmosphere and lots of Aussies see Floriade.

    Also, some people may now realize that Katy Gallagher is not the head gardener for Floriade.

  12. Gary Sparrow @ 27:

    [“I did but see her passing by, and yet I love her till I die”.

    Isn’t it lovely to have our Queen in Australia once more. Shame on Ms Gillard for not showing proper respect but brownie points to Tim who did.]

    Pleased to learn you got through your travails.

    I respect the Queen personally, though not the office, but I tend to think you’re going a bit overboard or should there be an appropriate emoticon after “die” & “did”?

  13. [66

    Pegasus

    Posted Thursday, October 20, 2011 at 6:38 pm | Permalink

    Yes and I am very sorry that Allan Asher thought it necessary to resign. Apparently he is very highly thought of.

    Yes, He did his job of scrutinising the government too well, including the appalling state of the immigration
    ]

    And Horsey defends the Indefensible.

    This is no different to Utegate and Godwin Gresch.

  14. [I hope our PM gives the queen a little rub and pat on the back before she heads back to mother england. That’ll get all the royalists all hot and bothered. Another lèse-majesté, a la Keating]

    I hope our PM gives her a slap on the ass and says G’day Lizzy im Jules.

  15. Julie Doyle (Capital Hill) didn’t follow through on this one.

    Colbeck said it was entirely appropriate for a public servant to brief a pollie. Julie said wtte “You have been guilty of that in the past, haven’t you?” I was hoping for Godwin but no such luck.

  16. GG
    [Obviously Asher thought he’d done wrong.]
    Gillard and other senior Labor politicians were out and about in public pushing their meme and driving public perception about this.

    Despite his apology, his position had become untenable as it is obvious the relationship between himself and the government was not going anywhere.

  17. [Yes, He did his job of scrutinising the government too well, including the appalling state of the immigration detention system with its high rates of self-harm and suicide amongst its detainees.]

    The problem is this is not his job. Or rather was not his job. His role as Immigration Ombudsman was limited to complaints about time spent in immigration. He was moonlighting as a political player, did the correct thing and resigned.

    When will the Greens admit they were wrong?

  18. Grech was a delusionist. Asher was over enthusiastic in putting forward his views which:

    (a) are genuine;
    (b) would find broad support in the community.

    I hope his resignation, which was the right thing to do, won’t result in less scrutiny of conditions in detention centres.

  19. [Pegasus

    Posted Thursday, October 20, 2011 at 6:47 pm | Permalink

    GG

    Obviously Asher thought he’d done wrong.

    Gillard and other senior Labor politicians were out and about in public pushing their meme and driving public perception about this.

    Despite his apology, his position had become untenable as it is obvious the relationship between himself and the government was not going anywhere.
    ]

    Horsey has forgotten about Godwin Grech.

    The Ombudsman isn;’t there to write Questions to be asked at Estimates.

  20. Greensborough Growler @ 62:

    [charlton,

    Hear! Hear!

    It’s at least good that Assher came to this conclusion. Brown is simply expending political capital ass covering for SHY. It’s a big one.]

    I hope it’s ‘a big one’ and that it causes some former Labor voters to return to the fold.

    In any event, I think it’ll put dampen SHY’s leadership ambitions & increase Lee Rhiannon’s prospects, which will be good for Labor.

  21. [His role as Immigration Ombudsman was limited to complaints about time spent in immigration.]

    I mentioned immigration as an example only. He got ‘up the noses’ of the government over other issues as well.

    Role is much broader than that: http://www.ombudsman.gov.au/

    The Ombudsman’s office handles complaints, conducts investigations, performs audits and inspections, encourages good administration, and carries out specialist oversight tasks.

    The Commonwealth Ombudsman is also the Defence Force, Immigration, Law Enforcement, Taxation, Postal Industry, ACT and Overseas Students Ombudsman.

    The Commonwealth Ombudsman can investigate complaints about the administrative actions of Australian Government departments and agencies. The Ombudsman has special responsibilities for complaints relating to the Australian Defence Force, Australian Federal Police, Freedom of Information, Immigration, the Postal Industry and Taxation

    The Commonwealth Ombudsman can investigate complaints about the Department of Immigration and Citizenship in the same way as any other Australian Government department or agency.

    (Unable to respond to further comments as I am going out for the night)

  22. As to cricket, David Boon is now a test match referee.

    Given his penchant for a beer or slab or two, he might be finding his current venue of employment, Abu Dhabi, a little dry.

  23. Darn @ 63:

    [I think Bob Brown has completely overstepped the mark by labeling Allan Asher’s resignation a “political assassination.”

    It sounds like the kind of thing Abbott would come out with.]

    Unless I’ve missed something, Abbott’s been unusually quite about the matter.

  24. [86

    charlton

    Posted Thursday, October 20, 2011 at 6:58 pm | Permalink

    Darn @ 63:

    I think Bob Brown has completely overstepped the mark by labeling Allan Asher’s resignation a “political assassination.”

    It sounds like the kind of thing Abbott would come out with.

    Unless I’ve missed something, Abbott’s been unusually quite about the matter.
    ]

    Abbott made some comment on ABC News Radio.

    [Earlier, Opposition Leader Tony Abbott said the Ombudsman was forced into providing the questions to Senator Hanson-Young because the Government was taking no notice of his private advice.

    “It says something about the dysfunction at the heart of this government that a senior statutory officer finds it necessary to get questions asked of himself in estimates rather than simply be able to approach the government in the normal way,” Mr Abbott said.
    ]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-10-20/ombudsman-resigns-after-questions-row/3581316

  25. Charlton,

    Brown wearing the flak in this instance to protect his “up and comer” will be a none to gentle reminder to the Greens that politics is not always easy and you can’t squirm out of major ethical dilemmas by playing cute.

    Pegasus running interference here is a typical example of the Greens believing they can do no wrong, projecting their guilt on to others and absolving themself. Quite pathetic really.

  26. I just hope that SH-Y has learned something about politics and how they should relate to bureaucrats.
    She annoys me more than somewhat and she’s getting worse. I think she overstepped and should have been the one to ‘suffer’, not the Ombudsman.

  27. Charlton

    I will shock you. Abbott, in his presser today, blamed the government for not having a clear line of communication with the ombudsman.

  28. #curtseygate is getting seriously ridiculous.

    Someone should start also tweeting comments under #firstworldproblems.

    Seriously, people. A little perspective, please …

  29. Meanwhile, another female head of state is up for review. Cristina Fernández de Kirchner will be having bargy in the Argy 23 October.

  30. Pegasus @ 66:

    [Yes and I am very sorry that Allan Asher thought it necessary to resign. Apparently he is very highly thought of.]

    Asher & SHY got caught out big time.

    Asher himself admits that he has damaged the office of Ombudsman by politicising it.

    No matter how much you try to gloss over this one, the Greens are no doubt in severe damage control.

    While some are in Churchillian mode:

    “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning [of the Greens].”

  31. Oh FFS:

    [

    GregPearce9Greg Pearce

    Was the PM correct in merely nodding to the Queen instead of the formal curtsey? @SimonBailey9 has all the protocol in @NineNewsPerth at 6.

    7 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply]

    Greg Pearce was briefly a member of The Liberal Party and was once earmarked for pre-selection for I think a State seat in 2005.

  32. [I think Bob Brown has completely overstepped the mark by labeling Allan Asher’s resignation a “political assassination.” He and his party have been caught out and in my view SHY should be referred to the Senate Privileges Committee.]

    Bob Brown was very insistent that Abetz be referred to a Senate Privledges Committee over Godwin Grech.

    I agree that this is a very bad look for the Greens, and it’s a shame that Brown has defended SHY instead of admonishing her for her behaviour.

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