Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition

Morgan has got in a day early with its face-to-face poll, again publishing a result from one weekend of polling rather than combining two for a fortnightly result as it had been doing for the previous four months. The figures show Labor hanging on to about half of the eyebrow-raising improvement they recorded in last week’s poll. On the primary vote Labor is at 36.5 per cent, which is down three points on last week and up one on the result of the previous fortnightly poll. The Coalition is up half a point to 44 per cent, after dropping from 46.5 per cent to 43.5 per cent last time. The Greens have gone from 10 per cent to 11 per cent and back to 10 per cent. On the more reliable two-party preferred measure which distributes minor party and independent preferences according to the result of the previous election, the result has gone from parity to a 51.5-48.5 lead to the Coalition. The measure which allocates preferences according to how respondents say they will vote records the Coalition lead increasing from 52.5-47.5 to 53.5-46.5.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,498 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition”

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  1. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    Has Abbott been crawling on his all four to meet the Queen? #curtsygate #auspol
    35 seconds ago

  2. [I agree that this is a very bad look for the Greens, and it’s a shame that Brown has defended SHY instead of admonishing her for her behaviour.]

    Brown was involoved in the entire sham, he asked scripted questions himself.

  3. [Yes, He did his job of scrutinising the government too well, including the appalling state of the immigration detention system with its high rates of self-harm and suicide amongst its detainees.]

    Hey Horsey, SHY Farqed it up big time.

  4. Why is Abetz obsessing about a question in the Census now that the Census for this year has already been done and dusted?

    He is a pompous bore, full of his own self-importance.

  5. [Brown was involoved in the entire sham, he asked scripted questions himself.]

    Did he? I wasn’t aware of that.

    The Greens-Asher incident is even more analogous to the Liberals with Godwin Grech.

  8. The ACT has passed a law banning smoking in a car where there are children. Come on, the rest of you lot.

    Tone won’t be happy, cough, cough.

  11. TLBD: that has been law in SA for ages. I believe we were the first in Australia.

    Another reason to pat Rann on the back for his stewardship of the Labor Government.

  12. This little black duck

    [Can someone tell me how much the Kiwi head of Qantas is being paid to keep the kangaroo flying?]

    Oy ! Alan Joyce is a born and bred Dubliner. His partner however is a Kiwi.

  15. What sort of country do we live in when some of the politicians, public and especially the media expect our leader to go grovelling to some visitor to this country.

    I will say this, anyone that expects an Australian to curtsy, bow or grovel in the dirt for another person has got rocks in their head. Especially when that person holds rank not through ability but because her / his daddy (supposedly) got his / her mummy up the duff when they held similar rank.

    If my Prime Minister had gone grovelling to the Queen bowing and curtseying like a ineffective little girl instead of the intelligent, talented, powerful woman she is representing Australia then I would have be extremely disappointed.

  16. There’s a lovely story about the Queen driving herself to Ascot racecourse. She had one of those scarves she sometimes wears over her hair, and had no ID with her.

    The young soldier on duty didn’t recognise her and refused to let her in.

    She said wtte of “You’re going to be very embarrassed when you come back, but don’t be; you’re doing exactly the right thing.”

    I liked that.

    On the other end of the scale:

    A friend of mine had a picture of the Queen very prominently displayed in his college room. After months of looking at it a bit askance, one of us asked him why it was there.

    “It’s there to show my respect for the Queen….” long pause…. “How could you fail to respect a woman with tits like that?”

  17. I hope our PM gives her a slap on the ass and says G’day Lizzy im Jules.

    One of the few occasions that I agree with you Rummel

  18. There would be a long history of ‘organised’, suggested, and ‘provided’ questions. There is nothing stopping a Bludger posting a suggested question to their favourite Senator, along with the reasons why the question has merit.

    But there are limits.

    Mr Brown is being foolish. Again. I recall that he didn’t like what the Immigration Department public servants were advising the Government.

    The issue here is not whether Mr Asher pulled the pin or was pushed.

    The issue is that Mr Asher, as Ombudsman, should be seen to be above party-political shenanigans. He is technically a neutral person.

    He wasn’t so now he isn’t.

  23. [Mr Brown is being foolish. Again. I recall that he didn’t like what the Immigration Department public servants were advising the Government.]

    He personally attacked the public servants, and demanded they be sacked.

    Very poor form.

  31. victoria:

    [theburgerman John Bergin
    by David_Speers
    Tonight on #TheNation w/ @David_Speers – @Barnaby_Joyce @PGarrettMP @LachlanFHarris and Gerard Henderson. Live on @SkyNewsAust at 8pm AEST.]

  32. Gus, the point is Asher can complain to the Greens about anything he likes but not giving the questions to SHY.

    SHY should be capable of formulating the Qs herself or can she?

  34. [I suggest asher initiated the process]

    Asher asked SHY to be ‘invited’ to attend the Committee. When SHY asks any question from now on, did you write it? will be asked. Silly Senator.

  35. Mick Collins

    [Vivent longtemps la République de l’Australie

    ok is that better ?]
    So the call becomes Aussi Aussi Aussi Oui ! Oui Oui ! 🙂

  38. [Only this morning Mrs BK and I were in a bakery in a nearby town having a quiet coffee when I looked around and could see so many “oldies’ who would fit the bill as “rusted ons”. I said to my good, lady “There’s no way we could become like them, could we?”]

    BK – Called OH to read that and we had a laugh. That is exactly what we say so I wonder if any of the other oldies look at us in that way. .

  40. [He personally attacked the public servants, and demanded they be sacked.

    Very poor form.]

    I don’t think his joke about how if you want infallibility, go for the Pope will go down that well either. Part of the Greens’ message is that they’re meant to be ‘above’ normal politics.

    On a sidenote, I already expect the answer is ‘no’, but did the country’s #1 naval officer saying Abbott’s BOATS policy won’t work get reported on any TV news program? Cause in a rational environment that’d be bigger news than whether the Prime Minister curtsied or not.

  45. Hypocrisy much!!

    [Eric Abetz
    @SenatorAbetz
    Greens Hypocrisy Exposed – ‘There will be no scrutiny of any Government we lead’ #politas #auspol #MyLiberal ^Staff abtz.mp/mWW13K]

  46. [but did the country’s #1 naval officer saying Abbott’s BOATS policy won’t work get reported on any TV news program? ]

    Sky NEws had it. Don’t know about the others.

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