The Australian brings results of a Newspoll survey conducted from Tuesday to Saturday in Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott’s regional NSW seats of New England and Lyne. The polls targeted about 500 voters each, producing margins of error of a little under 4.5 per cent. As expected, the results indicate a plunge in support for the incumbents since the election and their subsequent decision to back a Labor minority government. In New England, the poll has Tony Windsor at 33 per cent compared with 61.9 per cent at the election, with the Nationals at 41 per cent compared with 25.2 per cent. In Lyne, Rob Oakeshott’s primary vote is at 26 per cent compared with 47.1 per cent at the 2010 election, and the Nationals are at 47 per cent compared with 34.4 per cent.
Determining two-candidate preferred results for individual electorates in circumstances so radically different from the previous election is problematic, and Newspoll has done the best that could be done under the circumstances by publishing both previous-election and respondent-allocated measures. In New England, the previous election measure has Windsor and the Nationals tied at 50-50. Unfortunately we do not have a full set of primary vote figures at this stage, but it would seem to me from the two-candidate result that the others vote (excluding Windsor, Nationals, Labor and Greens) must be in the mid-teens. UPDATE: Full tables here courtesy of GhostWhoVotes others is at 14 per cent in Lyne and 13 per cent in New England. At the 2010 election it was only 1.2 per cent, that being the combined total for One Nation and the Citizens Electoral Council. To apply these parties’ preference distribution to such a large chunk of the vote is obviously imprecise at best. The respondent-allocated preference measure has Windsor trailing 53-47, but this has problems of its own in particular it requires respondents to make up their own mind, when many will in fact follow how-to-vote cards.
In Lyne, Rob Oakeshott trails 62-38 on respondent-allocated preferences and 55-45 on the previous election results. Similarly to the New England poll, the latter figure appears to have been obtained by amplifying a mid-teens others vote through the 2010 preference distribution of one independent who polled 0.7 per cent. While this is by any measure a depressing set of figures for Oakeshott, it is a good deal better for him than a ReachTel automated phone poll conducted in August, which had the Nationals leading 55 per cent to 15 per cent on the primary vote. That poll was rightly criticised at the time for asking about the carbon tax and pokies reform before getting to voting intention. It may also raise doubts about the precision of automated phone polling, which in this country at least has a patchy record (though it seems to be a different story in the United States).
Another difficulty with polls for these two seats is that it is not yet clear which candidates the Nationals will be running, which can have a very significant bearing on regional seats especially. After initially stating he wasn’t interested, the party’s state leader Andrew Stoner has recently said he would never say never to the prospect of running in Lyne, with earlier reports suggesting he was being courted to make such a move with a view to replacing Warren Truss as federal leader. This was said to be partly motivated by a desire to block a similar move by Barnaby Joyce, who has declared his interest in New England. However, Tony Abbott has said the candidate in Lyne from 2010, Port Macquarie medical specialist David Gillespie, would get wholehearted support if he wanted to run again. According to a flattering profile of Abbott by Tom Dusevic in The Weekend Australian, Gillespie is a boyhood friend of Abbott’s.
Newspoll also sought approval ratings for the two independents and gauged opinion on their decisions to support the Labor minority government and the carbon tax legislation. This provided one heartening result for Tony Windsor, who retains the approval of 50 per cent of his constituents with 44 per cent disapproving (UPDATE: Sorry, got that the wrong way around). Rob Oakeshott’s respective ratings are 38 per cent and 54 per cent. Voters in Lyne were the more hostile to their member’s support for the Labor government: 32 per cent were supportive and 61 opposed, against 36 per cent and 54 per cent in New England. The results on the carbon tax seem to have been effectively identical, with respective opposition of 72 per cent and 71 per cent. Only 22 per cent of respondents in Lyne were supportive; The Australian’s article neglects to provide a figure for New England, but it can be presumed to have been very similar.
UPDATE: The weekly Essential Research has the two-party preferred steady at 55-45, although Labor is off a point on the primary to 32 per cent with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 48 per cent and 11 per cent respectively. My favourite of the supplementary questions, as it was at my suggestion, gauges current opinion of major reforms of the past few decades, which gives a resounding thumbs-up to compulsory superannuation and Medicare, strong support to floating the dollar and free trade agreements, a fairly modest majority in favour of the GST. Privatisations, however, are opposed in retrospect as well as prospect, although reversing those already conducted has only bare majority support. For some reason though, more support regulating the dollar than thought it was a bad idea in the first place, and a big majority favour increasing trade protection. Other questions relate to a republic (41 per cent for, 33 per cent against), the Commonwealth (47 per cent believe membership of benefit) and succession to the throne (61 per cent believe it should be gender-neutral) and who is to blame for the Qantas dispute (management by and large).
815 comments on “Newspoll: New England and Lyne”
[Support for carbon tax is down… but support for the greens is up.]
And apparently a bunch of voters went straight from Liberals to Greens. Strange set of figures.
[Wow, such intellectual superiority ]
And more useless linkage by Equine.
[RT @GhostWhoVotes: #Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 46 (+3) L/NP 54 (-3) #auspol]
Ah, the narrowing 😉
Support for Labor is also up (2PP up, Primary stable), LNP down however (2PP Down, Primary down).
‘Fess, posts 396 and 408 above.
But above all, I’m humble.
I was very happy with that decision. Now it needs to be replicated in each state and the resources made available to investigate and prosecute. What is missing is making the selling of puppies and kittens in petshops illegal, unless it is an RSPCA or similar adoption service. I don’t care who changes the laws, or why, as long as it is done.
Political action? After the 4 Corners tonight – not least Bowen’s repeated arrogant platitudes which he has been spouting for nearly 12 months – I am closer to offering my services on behalf of asylum seekers myself. This travesty must stop.
Interesting News Poll result. Not really good news for either of the majors with all the Coalition bleeding going straight to the Greens. Sort of a counter intuitive result.
Theory: People are moving from Libs to Greens so they can then go home to Labor…
PS this is still too far out to mean much except that people are starting to react to changing circumstances.
[I know you don’t want to accept it, but can you point out where the term is not appropriate in the situation of sending 800 people (having arrived by boat) from Australia by Australian authorities to Malaysia?]
Using the word ‘rendition’ may or may not be appropriate, but it is outside it’s legal meaning. The High Court, by not using the word at all, makes that abundantly clear.
I call going up 5 points in a month very good news DavidWH. Very good news indeed.
The trend, dear David, is your friend.
[Wow, such intellectual superiority]
At least they are my opinions, and not just links to like-minded viewpoints.
[For those who missed my earlier posts….Here is a smattering of recent articles]
Yet not one which links directly to the Occupy Whatever websites in Australia. Why is that?
[a different perspective to those who want to maintain the status quo.]
Now you are verballing. I’ve been quite upfront that I have sympathy for anyone who wants to reduce socio-economic inequality, but am yet to see anything from the Occupy Whatever mob (in their own words btw, not their supporters cloistered in academia) which indicates this is what they are aiming for.
I mean, if they were about reducing SES inequality, or corporate greed, they’d be railing against pokies, Big Gina and News ltd.
jv and Pegasus
I was on the phone for a while from the start of Q&A, so I stand to be corrected on exactly what Richo was referring to on his comment regarding gay marriage.
What doesn’t make sense is that “if the right of the ALP gets its way” on a conscience vote it will be defeated?
Gay marriage would be defeated not only in the house but most certainly in a referendum!
Just catching up.
Confessions notes the following on the Occupy Sydney website:
[a bizarre post about world government, and blaming Bob Brown, Gillard, Rudd and the unions, and an even more bizarre post announcing the day Australia died (Oct 12 for anyone who’s wondering).]
Yes fess, there seem to have been more than a few odd-balls out and about at the OWS gigs here.
I suppose events like this are wide-open opportunities for every nutter with a barrow to push. Having said that, I believe the OWS people in the US certainly have a legitimate gripe and I make no criticism of them whatsoever.
For the Aussie mob, however, see this from vex news on the Melbourne protest:
In it, one Tina Athanasopoulos gets a mention as one of the “organisers.”
This lady appears to be a fair piece of work. According to one of her own blog entries (quoted in the article), she’s a follower of one David Icke, a loony-tunes conspiract theorist who adheres (inter alia) to views that:
[the world is becoming a global fascist state, that a secret group of reptilian humanoids called the Babylonian Brotherhood controls humanity, and that many prominent figures are reptilian, including George W. Bush, Queen Elizabeth II, Kris Kristofferson, and Boxcar Willie]
That’s right folks, shape-shifting lizards.
This bloke is definitely the real McCoy.
I certainly hope he keeps taking his medications.
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