Newspoll: New England and Lyne

The Australian brings results of a Newspoll survey conducted from Tuesday to Saturday in Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott’s regional NSW seats of New England and Lyne. The polls targeted about 500 voters each, producing margins of error of a little under 4.5 per cent. As expected, the results indicate a plunge in support for the incumbents since the election and their subsequent decision to back a Labor minority government. In New England, the poll has Tony Windsor at 33 per cent compared with 61.9 per cent at the election, with the Nationals at 41 per cent compared with 25.2 per cent. In Lyne, Rob Oakeshott’s primary vote is at 26 per cent compared with 47.1 per cent at the 2010 election, and the Nationals are at 47 per cent compared with 34.4 per cent.

Determining two-candidate preferred results for individual electorates in circumstances so radically different from the previous election is problematic, and Newspoll has done the best that could be done under the circumstances by publishing both previous-election and respondent-allocated measures. In New England, the previous election measure has Windsor and the Nationals tied at 50-50. Unfortunately we do not have a full set of primary vote figures at this stage, but it would seem to me from the two-candidate result that the “others” vote (excluding Windsor, Nationals, Labor and Greens) must be in the mid-teens. UPDATE: Full tables here courtesy of GhostWhoVotes – “others” is at 14 per cent in Lyne and 13 per cent in New England. At the 2010 election it was only 1.2 per cent, that being the combined total for One Nation and the Citizens Electoral Council. To apply these parties’ preference distribution to such a large chunk of the vote is obviously imprecise at best. The respondent-allocated preference measure has Windsor trailing 53-47, but this has problems of its own – in particular it requires respondents to make up their own mind, when many will in fact follow how-to-vote cards.

In Lyne, Rob Oakeshott trails 62-38 on respondent-allocated preferences and 55-45 on the previous election results. Similarly to the New England poll, the latter figure appears to have been obtained by amplifying a mid-teens “others” vote through the 2010 preference distribution of one independent who polled 0.7 per cent. While this is by any measure a depressing set of figures for Oakeshott, it is a good deal better for him than a ReachTel automated phone poll conducted in August, which had the Nationals leading 55 per cent to 15 per cent on the primary vote. That poll was rightly criticised at the time for asking about the carbon tax and pokies reform before getting to voting intention. It may also raise doubts about the precision of automated phone polling, which in this country at least has a patchy record (though it seems to be a different story in the United States).

Another difficulty with polls for these two seats is that it is not yet clear which candidates the Nationals will be running, which can have a very significant bearing on regional seats especially. After initially stating he wasn’t interested, the party’s state leader Andrew Stoner has recently said he would “never say never” to the prospect of running in Lyne, with earlier reports suggesting he was being “courted” to make such a move with a view to replacing Warren Truss as federal leader. This was said to be partly motivated by a desire to block a similar move by Barnaby Joyce, who has declared his interest in New England. However, Tony Abbott has said the candidate in Lyne from 2010, Port Macquarie medical specialist David Gillespie, would get “wholehearted support” if he wanted to run again. According to a flattering profile of Abbott by Tom Dusevic in The Weekend Australian, Gillespie is a “boyhood friend” of Abbott’s.

Newspoll also sought approval ratings for the two independents and gauged opinion on their decisions to support the Labor minority government and the carbon tax legislation. This provided one heartening result for Tony Windsor, who retains the approval of 50 per cent of his constituents with 44 per cent disapproving (UPDATE: Sorry, got that the wrong way around). Rob Oakeshott’s respective ratings are 38 per cent and 54 per cent. Voters in Lyne were the more hostile to their member’s support for the Labor government: 32 per cent were supportive and 61 opposed, against 36 per cent and 54 per cent in New England. The results on the carbon tax seem to have been effectively identical, with respective opposition of 72 per cent and 71 per cent. Only 22 per cent of respondents in Lyne were supportive; The Australian’s article neglects to provide a figure for New England, but it can be presumed to have been very similar.

UPDATE: The weekly Essential Research has the two-party preferred steady at 55-45, although Labor is off a point on the primary to 32 per cent with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 48 per cent and 11 per cent respectively. My favourite of the supplementary questions, as it was at my suggestion, gauges current opinion of major reforms of the past few decades, which gives a resounding thumbs-up to compulsory superannuation and Medicare, strong support to floating the dollar and free trade agreements, a fairly modest majority in favour of the GST. Privatisations, however, are opposed in retrospect as well as prospect, although reversing those already conducted has only bare majority support. For some reason though, more support regulating the dollar than thought it was a bad idea in the first place, and a big majority favour increasing trade protection. Other questions relate to a republic (41 per cent for, 33 per cent against), the Commonwealth (47 per cent believe membership of benefit) and succession to the throne (61 per cent believe it should be gender-neutral) and who is to blame for the Qantas dispute (management by and large).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

815 comments on “Newspoll: New England and Lyne”

Comments Page 16 of 17
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  1. [Richo said on Q & A tonight that if the party right gets its way and there is a conscience vote in parliament on gay marriage, then it will be defeated.]
    That is indeed what he said. He elaborated wtte Coalition would oppose it as would about 30 percent of Labor.

  2. Tensions are high, and the Nations carrying the fiscal load, like France and Germany, have no need for the pontifications of naysayers from ecomomic basket cases like the UK, aNation which has no capacity, and less interest, in contributing a brass razoo to save the rest of Europe from collapse.

  3. [That the idea might really be a legal and humanitarian crock that didn’t even meet Phillip Ruddock’s human rights standards.]

    Ah, the ‘Labor is worse than Howard~!’ chestnut rears up again.

  4. [Ah, the ‘Labor is worse than Howard~!’ chestnut rears up again]

    rishane, I especially like the use of “human rights standards” and “ruddock” in the same sentence 😉

  5. 748

    If the Queen used Section 59 on the advice of the PM then the High Court would not rule it unconstitutional.

  6. […they don’t play by the rules – ie Money Talks.

    They could easily used that money getting on a boat and fly in on a Tourist Visa and THEN claim Asylum.]

    Franco, are you saying that you would not object if asylum-seekers came by air rather than by sea? Is the mode of transport the basis of your objection? How is coming by air with the intention of seeking asylum playing by the rules but coming by sea is not?

  8. [No it is precisely its ‘common legal meaning’. There is nothing about the forced movement of the 800 that is in any way outside the definition.]

    The High Court did not use the word ‘rendition’ in M70 v Minister for Immigration. Not once.

    [I’m interested in why is it so important that it not be. Is it really uneasiness? That the idea might really be a legal and humanitarian crock that didn’t even meet Phillip Ruddock’s human rights standards. And now Labor people want to quibble about the applicable terms? I’d be more concerned about the policy.]

    I don’t mind you using the word, but you’re insisting it’s use is within it’s legal meaning, which it clearly is not.

  10. [756

    briefly

    Posted Monday, October 24, 2011 at 11:49 pm | Permalink

    …they don’t play by the rules – ie Money Talks.

    They could easily used that money getting on a boat and fly in on a Tourist Visa and THEN claim Asylum.

    Franco, are you saying that you would not object if asylum-seekers came by air rather than by sea? Is the mode of transport the basis of your objection? How is coming by air with the intention of seeking asylum playing by the rules but coming by sea is not?
    ]

    Nice try at Verballing.

    You suppoort Human Trafficking.

    I’ll remeber that time the topioc o Sex Slaves comes up.

    Cos both examples are no different.

  12. Because one class of traveler is politically-charged and the other is not? In which case you would choose to suppress the rights of one person but not another for purely political reasons. Are you sure you are not a Liberal?

  13. Briefly, is not the current “rule” that those who fly in are not placed in mandatory detention, and those who ship in, are?

    Much as I agree with the general tenor of your argument, there is nothing wrong with Frank’s assessment of the “fact”.

  14. Why are today’s Republicans so enthralled by tax gimmicks? http://wapo.st/npUsAJ via @postopinions

    [Republicans have boxed themselves into a rejection of both their own traditions and the idea that government can do any good. Thus they have confined themselves to endless fiddling with the tax code. Almost everything conservatives suggest these days is built around the single idea that if only government took less money away from the wealthy, all our problems would magically disappear.]

    Interesting article.

  15. [How is coming by air with the intention of seeking asylum playing by the rules but coming by sea is not?

    For the simple fact that you arricve with a Visa and a Passport – ie Identification – on a boat that suddenly goes “missing”

    Capiche ?

  16. [Interesting cherry picking there.]

    Cherry picking?! My goodness, didn’t you read the entire transcript? It was a dreadful report of where progressive politics has gotten to in this country. The Occupy Whatever “movement” (if it can be called that) in Australia has completely missed the point; their cheap slogans, their irrelevent, meaningless mission statements, their ‘we wuz robbed!’ attitude to democracy in this country should appall any progressive voter. It speaks volumes that you have embraced it, seemingly without reflection or critical thinking.

    [STEVEN KEEN: It is a silly, ignorant comment and it will offend lots of people quite righteously who were there for very altruistic reasons. If they can’t see there’s altruism in people protesting about the state of society when it’s as dysfunctional as it is now, then they’re just – you know, they should be going off to OPSM for a new pair of glasses.]

    Interesting that you should “cherry pick” this comment. So many implied statements yet not fleshed out. Keen seems to take the view that you either agree with his take on our society, or the fault is all with you: you need to go and get new glasses. Did you mean to cherry pick this comment, because it isn’t very flattering to your standpoint.

  17. rishane
    [Ah, the ‘Labor is worse than Howard~!’ chestnut rears up again.]
    By all means add the hyberbole (if I may pronounce it that way), but in what way is my statement incorrect?

    I can post paragraphs 66 and 67 of the M70 decision for you on the first point, and I think you already know Ruddock oversaw the drafting of section 198A of the Migration Act with the human rights safeguards before rendition – the sections the HC downed Bowen on.

  18. [Nice try at Verballing.

    You suppoort Human Trafficking.

    I’ll remeber that time the topioc o Sex Slaves comes up.

    Cos both examples are no different.]

    Yes, there are similarities. In each case, those involved have had their rights taken away and are treated as less than human. They are without defenses and rely on external help. What a miserable position in which to find oneself. It is a chilling indictment on us that this happens in our supposedly rights-conscious society.

  19. [768

    briefly

    Posted Monday, October 24, 2011 at 11:57 pm | Permalink

    Nice try at Verballing.

    You suppoort Human Trafficking.

    I’ll remeber that time the topioc o Sex Slaves comes up.

    Cos both examples are no different.

    Yes, there are similarities. In each case, those involved have had their rights taken away and are treated as less than human. They are without defenses and rely on external help. What a miserable position in which to find oneself. It is a chilling indictment on us that this happens in our supposedly rights-conscious society.
    ]

    Keep digging that hole.

  21. Does anyone know the twitter link to the OO?

    If Ghost has been nobbled, then I suppose we are forced to go with the OO, and I’m assuming they will announce Newspoll on twitter.

  25. [How is coming by air with the intention of seeking asylum playing by the rules but coming by sea is not?

    For the simple fact that you arricve with a Visa and a Passport – ie Identification – on a boat that suddenly goes “missing”

    Capiche ?]

    Of course I understand, Franco, of course I do. But this does not alter the fact that for political reasons one class of person will be detained and another will not. That is undeniable. It is a tragedy of our own making. That is also undeniable.

  26. George, 754
    I wouldn’t worry too much. If the Aussie Tea Party gets into power, even if they cannot use Nauru straight away, they will bring in TPV’s faster than their new APH passes can be printed. Community detention will be a thing of the past and behind razor wire will be the only place AS kids will be.

    If the Greens had supported Labor on regional processing, they could have gone a long way to protecting all Asylum seekers in the region. Now, not only does our concern stop at our sea borders, there is nothing to prevent the Coalition making AS political footballs again as soon as Labor loses power.

  27. drake
    [I don’t mind you using the word, but you’re insisting it’s use is within it’s legal meaning, which it clearly is not.]
    OK, I’ll post the definition again.
    [In law, rendition is a “surrender” or “handing over” of persons or property, particularly from one jurisdiction to another.]

    I know you don’t want to accept it, but can you point out where the term is not appropriate in the situation of sending 800 people (having arrived by boat) from Australia by Australian authorities to Malaysia?

  29. From this perspective, asylum-seekers almost count as political prisoners. They are detained for reasons of political exigency. That is the only reason. children are being held in detention by the Australian Government for political reasons. This is a sad fact.

  31. Hi Frank Calabrese

    yeah I am a supporter of the Occupy “whatever” movement, insofar as it’s about and against corporate greed. Do you have a problem with that!

    Don’t answer. I know that you wouldn’t. There’s obviously something else going on here. Just dropped in to turn the computer off. No. 2 son has disappeared – and he’s supposed to be studying for exams, but am too tired to wonder what he’s up to. Hoping he’s just visiting his girlfriend.

    Sleep tight, everyone.

  38. [11 seconds ago
    »
    GhostWhoVotes
    GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 46 (+3) L/NP 54 (-3) #auspol ]

    That on the other hand, is promising. Which is probably why they waited to report the Oakeshott/Windsor part first.

  41. Franco, it is some time since I said or did anything in public of a political character. But tonight you have almost incited to me to resume political action. The hypocrisy is too much.

  43. Newspoll is certainly moving in an interesting direction… that reminds me, I need to fix the hinges on our back door, they’re popping out a bit more every day

  44. [briefly

    Posted Tuesday, October 25, 2011 at 12:06 am | Permalink

    Franco, it is some time since I said or did anything in public of a political character. But tonight you have almost incited to me to resume political action. The hypocrisy is too much.
    ]

    Wankery will get you nowhere.

  47. [The Occupy Whatever “movement” (if it can be called that) in Australia has completely missed the point; their cheap slogans, their irrelevent, meaningless mission statements, their ‘we wuz robbed!’ attitude to democracy in this country should appall any progressive voter. It speaks volumes that you have embraced it, seemingly without reflection or critical thinking.]
    Wow, such intellectual superiority 😉

    For those who missed my earlier posts….Here is a smattering of recent articles that provide a different perspective to those who want to maintain the status quo.
    1. http://left-flank.blogspot.com/2011/10/occupyoz-captures-mood-but-its-critics.html
    2. http://larvatusprodeo.net/2011/10/22/occupy-australia-and-the-antipodean-bubble/
    3. http://larvatusprodeo.net/2011/10/17/occupy-x-and-australias-99/
    4. http://overland.org.au/2011/10/occupy-melbourne-some-initial-thoughts/
    5. http://johnquiggin.com/2011/10/14/percentiles/
    6. http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/3597550.html

  49. [briefly

    Posted Tuesday, October 25, 2011 at 12:03 am | Permalink

    From this perspective, asylum-seekers almost count as political prisoners. They are detained for reasons of political exigency. That is the only reason. children are being held in detention by the Australian Government for political reasons. This is a sad fact.
    ]
    Sending Unaccompanied Children is a form of Child Abuse.

Comments are closed.

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