Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition

Morgan has got in a day early with its face-to-face poll, again publishing a result from one weekend of polling rather than combining two for a fortnightly result as it had been doing for the previous four months. The figures show Labor hanging on to about half of the eyebrow-raising improvement they recorded in last week’s poll. On the primary vote Labor is at 36.5 per cent, which is down three points on last week and up one on the result of the previous fortnightly poll. The Coalition is up half a point to 44 per cent, after dropping from 46.5 per cent to 43.5 per cent last time. The Greens have gone from 10 per cent to 11 per cent and back to 10 per cent. On the more reliable two-party preferred measure which distributes minor party and independent preferences according to the result of the previous election, the result has gone from parity to a 51.5-48.5 lead to the Coalition. The measure which allocates preferences according to how respondents say they will vote records the Coalition lead increasing from 52.5-47.5 to 53.5-46.5.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,498 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition”

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  1. [You are a very lucky man BB.]

    If you knew the little guy, you’d say that double. A delightful kid. Smart, witty, ironic, good sense of humour but still, for now, a boy.

    Each time he comes down I expect him to have gained 6 inches in height and for his voice to be croaky. But not yet.

    Fingers crossed.

    One day, of course, he won’t really want to visit, to see his Poppy and Gran, and to delight them with his humour and charm, to break our hearts and to delight them when he hugs us, and then hugs the dogs so affectionately (Big-Love-In time, lots of kisses, slurps and wagging tails all round).

    May that day be a long way into the future. It’ll come, but not yet please.

  2. [But it’s almost frightening how quickly these angelic little children turn into the worst kind of politician. Winning is all, and they show far fewer scruples about doing this than most adults]

    I suggest that that which you decry is fairly normal adolescent behaviour:

    [“Our youth now love luxury. They have bad manners, contempt for authority; they show disrespect for their elders and love chatter in place of exercise; they no longer rise when elders enter the room; they contradict their parents, chatter before company; gobble up their food and tyrannize their teachers.” ― Socrates]

  3. [peg

    Yes, I saw that page. Last line of entry is:

    On the motion of Senator Feeney the bill was read a third time.

    Nothing about being put to a vote, as far as I can see. Am I missing something?]

    there was no vote taken. as, it says, no amendments, no committee stage.

    I would say either:

    1. the Greens did their grandstanding in the Reps only
    2. the Labor and Green whips have the program organised to get things through – there seemed to be a fair bit on that day – last sitting day for a while
    3. the Green Senators had a change of heart from the Reps vote
    4. there is a split in the Greens, where they have hung Bandt out to dry

    After SHY’s performance over the last few weeks, I’d guess all is not happy in Greenland

  8. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    #Libya NTC has reported to agree for Col. Gadaffi body to go on a World Tour to convince the World that he is truly dead starting at the UN
    8 seconds ago

  12. [LOCAL communities will have a say in selection of Liberal Party candidates for the first time before the next federal election.

    US-style ”primaries” will be tried out in a handful of winnable seats after a fractious meeting of the 17-member Liberal state executive narrowly endorsed the proposal on Friday night.]
    It will be interesting to know exactly which “winnable” seats they pick, and just how winnable they really are. Same for Labor’s proposed experiment.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/liberals-join-the-trend-of-picking-by-primaries-20111022-1mdjq.html#ixzz1bbT4ILPD

  20. [Two party 52-48 Libs. Abbott has been a flopping around like a fish out of water for a month now.]

    That’s funny rummel. Are we really expecting a Newspoll tonight?

  21. The downfall of abbott up to this point is simple. He has posted him self a “action man” and so far action man has done sweet f all to stop Gillard, some bloody action man.

  22. Might not come out tonight, many have appeared on the Tuesday recently. Also, maybe stuffing around with the new site would make them want to hold off on preparing the newspoll related articles.

  23. Wise words rummel, though I wouldn’t be so bold as to a 52-48 LNP.

    Hope you’re right though.

    [the Kevinator is fighting in the past for the future of Labor.]

    The Kevinator was a long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away.

  29. Given that Labor’s primary vote seems to have improved by around 3 percent then a 2PP of 55/45 should be close to the money. Anything better than that for Labor then I think we can say there is a material swing back to Labor. I still hope the polls are holding up for the LNP in QLD despite the war the C-M seems to be waging against them.

  32. [I got the Kelvinator Duck]

    Ahhhhh… Kevinator – Kelvinator – fridge – fridge magnets

    I’m sorry Duck. I’m a bit, you know, slow on the uptake.

  34. [I still hope the polls are holding up for the LNP in QLD despite the war the C-M seems to be waging against them.]

    My heart bleeds.. 😀

  35. Tobe,

    [In 2005, Carrier sold the Kelvinator division to National Refrigeration of Honea Path, South Carolina. National Refrigeration continues to manufacture Kelvinator bunkers, dipping cabinets, blast chillers, reach-ins and low- and medium- temp merchandisers.

    In Argentina, still exists the Kelvinator brand, with the support of Radio Victoria Fueguina S.A. (in Tierra del Fuego, in the south). In this province, have the factory]
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelvinator

  36. Kelvinator bunkers… that’s funny 🙂

    I must be getting mellow, 10 years ago rummel’s “bye bye republic” would have had me in a lather. Or maybe I think the the Carbon Price, Mining tax, and NBN are more important… and enough… for the time being…

  38. zoomster @ 2042:

    [charlton

    I don’t decry it!]

    Judging from you posts over a period of time, I’m sure your heart’s in the right place.

  39. DavidWH,

    I’m thinking once the polls come within 55-45 they start to look more “normal” and thet might affect the reporting. At the momment the MSM seems to think the whole of Oz hates Gillard. The centre seems to have become quite volatile in recent years. In the past (pre Rudd) polls didn’t seem to go outside 55-45 TPP very often. I have this vague feeling there are bugger all actual elections in recent history outside 53-47.

  40. Of the leaders of the G20, four are women. The Ladies of Brazil and Argentina were virtually gifted theirs; those of Germany and Australia had to work a bit harder.

  41. Tobe I have never thought the polling in the high 50’s was sustainable in the long-term. This Labor government is pretty average in my opinion however the opposition is not much better if at all. You have to be a loyal supporter to be happy with the performance of either side.

    The polls will continue to narrow is my belief but I am not sure where they will end up in 2013 as it depends on too many factors not least of which is what happens with the respective leaderships.

  43. [Duck, it was quite nice to see the GG, PM, and HM all together on the tarmac in skirts, even if I am a bloke. What are the odds?]

    Tobe,

    are you asking what are the odds on you being a bloke?

  44. I’m a rusty David, and pretty happy with the Government.

    I think Tony has started a new trend in absolute opposition, which is why I’m surprised some commentators believe the ALP will cave in and give up on the Carbon price if he gets elected. He has shown that opposition has no responsibility, and need not have concern or care for anything much at all.

  45. [The polls will continue to narrow is my belief but I am not sure where they will end up in 2013 as it depends on too many factors not least of which is what happens with the respective leaderships.]
    I agree. I’ve always said predicting 2 years ahead is madness.

  48. [

    jasonjordanJason Jordan

    Is the Socialist Alliance hijacking the #Occupy movement? I strongly believe in the principles behind #Occupy but I think SA are turkeys.

    23 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply

  49. Nothing wrong with being rusted to either side Tobe. I admire the passion of many posters here even of I disagree with them often.

    Basically I think both the majors in Australia are around the centre and what’s important is the abilities of the leadership and teams. At present I am not excited about either.

  50. Just a quick note re progress of my say’s grandson. He is due to have heart surgery on Tuesday. He is stable at present, and is doing okay.

    Night bludgers

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