The Courier-Mail today brings the sequel to yesterday’s 63-37 Galaxy state poll for Queensland, with the same sample also delivering 63-37 on federal voting intention. However, the Coalition’s primary vote lead is higher than in the state poll: 55 per cent to 23 per cent (with the Greens on 12 per cent) compared with 52 per cent to 28 per cent. That this produces the same two-party result is a handy measure of the penalty Labor suffers under the state’s optional preferential voting system, which deprives them of exhausting Greens preferences. This points to a swing from the 2010 election result of 8 per cent, which would neatly leave Kevin Rudd as Labor’s only surviving representative among the state’s complement of 30 House of Representatives seats. Speaking of Kevin Rudd, the poll also has him leading Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader by no less than 62 per cent to 18 per cent.
These apocalyptic figures for Labor sit fairly well with other recent polling. Adding the figures for Queensland from the last two monthly federal Nielsen polls gives a sample of 500, a margin of error a bit under 4.5 per cent, and a two-party preferred result of 66.5-33.5. The discrepancy here fits nicely with the fact that Nielsen has been tracking about two points worse for Labor than other pollsters this year.
The poll was conducted last Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 800, with a margin of error of about 3.5 per cent.
UPDATE: Further from the Courier-Mail:
Almost a year after Ms Gillard secured backing from independents Tony Windsor, Rob Oakeshott and Andrew Wilkie to form a government, 56 per cent of Queensland voters said the minority government was “worse than expected”. This is more than double the 24 per cent who feared the hung Parliament would be worse than expected in a Galaxy poll conducted in late November last year. There is also a growing fear in Queensland electorates about the role of the Greens in the Parliament. Almost two-thirds of voters – and 41 per cent of Labor voters – say the Greens have too much influence on the Government. In a similar poll in February, voters were split over whether the Greens had too much influence … Calls for an early election have increased, with 69 per cent of voters saying they want to elect a majority government. But they also expressed dissatisfaction with both parties, with 60 per cent of Labor supporters and 66 per cent of LNP supporters saying their vote was determined by not wanting to see the other party in power rather than a liking for the candidate.
I would like to see the wording of the question that had 69 per cent of voters “saying they want to elect a majority government”, as it is not immediately clear why it was inferred from this that “calls for an early election have increased”. UPDATE: Gayle in comments reveals all.
UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition’s lead steady at 56-44 from primary votes of 49 per cent for the Coalition (down one), 32 per cent for Labor (steady) and 10 per cent for the Greens (steady). There has basically been no change worth mentioning in the last ten Essential Research polls: Labor’s vote has ranged from 30 per cent to 32 per cent, the Coalition’s from 48 per cent to 50 per cent, the Greens from 10 per cent to 11 per cent, and two-party preferred from 55-45 to 57-43. Also canvassed:
• Opinion on various decisions and policies of the Labor government, which finds only the carbon tax and the Malaysia solution attracting disapproval. Spending on new school buildings, taxing mining companies and stopping live cattle exports all get the thumbs up, though not quite so resoundingly as spending on health services and increasing the aged pension.
• Respondents would favour more (48 per cent) rather than less (22 per cent) spending on new infrastructure and services in the event of a second GFC.
• Forty-four per cent believe the Opposition’s proposal to both abolish the carbon tax and keep the tax cuts it will fund will be good for the economy, against 30 per cent who think it will be bad.
• A question on what the government should do if the economy weakens further provides more evidence that voters like government spending but don’t like taxes. However, cutting interest rates tops the list of desired measures.
• Good news for organisers of anti-government rallies: despite weak attendances, 40 per cent say the rallies represent their views about the government (including 14 per cent of Labor and 10 per cent of Greens voters) against 38 per cent who say they don’t, while a slight majority (38 per cent to 36 per cent) approve of Tony Abbott lending them his support.
• Support for Australian involvement in Afghanistan has weakened still further since March: those who think our troop commitment should be increased is down a point to 4 per cent, kept at the same level is down four to 26 per cent, and complete withdrawal is up eight points to 64 per cent.
A little expansion on my nicknames for the Q&A guests:
http://walkingthroughthequagmire.tumblr.com/post/9830086642/tonight-on-q-a
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
If Abbott and his 40 thieves are so sure that the HC decision doesnt apply to Nauru why he is so keen on changing the migration law #auspol
1 minute ago
Boerwar,
I share your cynicism about war. Is it ever justified, thinks you?
As I said earlier today, Abbott needs to make a deal re the AS legislation now. The Libs fully expect they will be in Government soon. Given the SG advice that the Nauru solution is untenable the Libs will want to have some legislation enacted now rather than wait for the crap shoot that would be the next Parliament and Senate.
Abbott also needs to address his image as a flake on policy.
[I notice you two post the usual suspecting lines, which isn’t very unsurprising, nor is the numbers that your egotistically gloating about either.]
Naturally you assume anyone not supporting Gillard has no opinion of their own other than from the MSM and Menzies House….
It is a false assumption and very insulting actually.
“Death was lawful.” What sort of an indictment is that!
Craig Thomson ain’t going away – a bit hard for Julia to legislate that one out of the public’s gaze.
[I see the poll results as one thing and one thing only….
People aren’t supporting the LNP they’re voicing their opposition to Labor.
But as you said it could wash as soft support that 2 years could degrade or it is proving that Oppositions don’t win elections Governments lose them…. ]
Yeah, it certainly could go either way. I like to think that Abbott’s will go down when proper scrutiny is finally given to his lack of ethics and actual policies besides shouting NO NO NO all the time, but I have no certainty that said scrutiny will be given. One of my fears is that he’ll turn out to be like Ronald Reagan in America. If you ever read Nixonland by Rick Perlstein, one of the threads that runs through that is that even before he become governor of California, Reagan had bad policy ideas and said a whole bunch of very disturbing things, but the media just gave him a total pass on it because they saw him as charismatic.
Get out of Afghan war
______________
Gillard could kick a much needed goal by declaring an end to the Afghan War.
Get out as many others have done…like Canada and Spain…!
Why is she so determined ,when she hasn’t got any reason to continue the war and we know the public hates it…more and more with each death
Does she just want to brown nose losers like Obama and Clinton
…and it would be a popular decision …but she has a tin ear for advantage I think….
[wal, in malay: buat saya, i makan ikan bilis, enak pan?]
saya suka nasi lemak (pada ikan bilis dan sambol olek)
buat tax karbon, langkah seperti itu mungkin menimbulkan kegelisahan orang-orang di australia… 😛
TLBD
Yep. If are ever actually invaded then we a war would be justified, IMHO. I would support it.
[Thornleigh Labor Man
Posted Monday, September 5, 2011 at 9:13 pm | Permalink
Craig Thomson ain’t going away – a bit hard for Julia to legislate that one out of the public’s gaze.]
Yarn.
This Newspoll will be as important as all of those others in the first year of a government’s term. As for spinning anything, I’ve come to the conclusion that it is basically a waste of time and energy.
wal,
Leave off the twice-chewed-and-spitted out kava.
spur:
All this talk of leadership speculation is (IMO) directly related to the forthcoming CT bills hitting the parliament.
The rentseekers and their shills in the media managed to effect a leadership change the last time Labor proposed a financial impost to them, so I suppose they think they can do it this time as well.
Watch as the hysteria gears up a notch when parliament resumes. They won’t be gunning for Thomson to resign, they’ll be gunning for the PM to stand aside.
Craig who?
I see that Mr Perry is the most executionist governor in recent US history. He has just nixed a bill that would have spared mentally retarded people from execution.
IMHO, that is insane.
@GS/12598,
Don’t take it the wrong way, but that’s what you guys do at every new poll.
I concede that if she gets the Carbon Tax & the resources tax through parliament, the Government’s ratings will no doubt recover by a few points.
Julia will never be loved, in the same way that Hawke was, and I don’t think that she’s yet established a connection with the Australian people!
Time for the Alan Jones pig-spit?
[confessions
Posted Monday, September 5, 2011 at 9:15 pm | Permalink
spur:
…..
Watch as the hysteria gears up a notch when parliament resumes. They won’t be gunning for Thomson to resign, they’ll be gunning for the PM to stand aside.]
Will Labor turn to water once again, I await the outcome.
I am looking forward tonights result.
I am a New South Welshman and am sick of having a disease called after my state.
Perhaps they will re-name the NSW disease as the Gillard disease as she sinks below the low point of Ms Keneally.
Four corners just reinforced for me that we should get out of the Afghanistan War ASAP.
[12614
fredn
Posted Monday, September 5, 2011 at 9:17 pm | Permalink
confessions
Posted Monday, September 5, 2011 at 9:15 pm | Permalink
spur:
…..
Watch as the hysteria gears up a notch when parliament resumes. They won’t be gunning for Thomson to resign, they’ll be gunning for the PM to stand aside.
Will Labor turn to water once again, I await the outcome.
]
Once Bitten, Twice Shy.
Keep Dreaming.
[Thornleigh Labor Man
Julia will never be loved, in the same way that Hawke was]
Lets be honest, Hawke actually didn’t achieve much.
[Abbott also needs to address his image as a flake on policy.]
Yes, his staff have shrewdly picked AS as an issue on which he can do just that.
I believe I first called for the PM to put amendments to the Migration Act to parliament and stare down Abbott to reject it.
He’s just got in first I suppose.
[Don’t take it the wrong way, but that’s what you guys do at every new poll.]
What do we do?
Reiterate the reasons why Gillard is finished.
What do you do?
Reiterate the reason why Gillard is not finished.
I hardly think you’re on firm ground attacking what I say after a poll…
I do not question whether you have your own opinion or not. I wouldn’t stoop so low.
ifonly
What about the Dutch Disease. Australia has it. It is no good.
Does anyone see this asylum seeker issue as having wedged the PM?
I don’t blame Keneally for what happened in NSW, she actually campaigned very well, and possibly saved Labor from being reduced down to 10 seats or fewer.
There is another element in this, too. The sense of malaise that seems to have overwhelmed the Government also contributes to consumer pessimism.
Everyone knows the Europeans and the US are in trouble, and that this could mean serious economic challenges here too. Well, if you are already feeling under financial pressure – high mortgage payments….straining to make ends meet, one way and another – and then you hear about the Greeks, the Italians, the Spanish and the Portuguese, as well as the US debt debacle and their failing labour market, and then you see a Government that seems to lack dexterity, to lack policy coherence and general grunt….well, of course you are likely to form a low opinion of the Government, even if you can’t really stand Tony Abbott.
This is about so much more than the media and those scoundrels in the Opposition or the Greens.
It is about anxiety, money, security….about certainty in an uncertain world.
[What do we do?
Reiterate the reasons why Gillard is finished.
What do you do?
Reiterate the reason why Gillard is not finished.]
Pretty much. Rinse and repeat until somebody is proven right, then start the cycle again. Politics, eh? 😉
[12623
Thornleigh Labor Man
Posted Monday, September 5, 2011 at 9:19 pm | Permalink
I don’t blame Keneally for what happened in NSW, she actually campaigned very well, and possibly saved Labor from being reduced down to 10 seats or fewer.
]
Richo doing his best to concern troll.
But hey your new buddy is Abbott ain’t it ?
I have a theory about why people disapprove on the carbon tax:
Climate Change policy has been up in the air since 2008. The electorate has become sick of hearing about it and they just want the policy resolved, but they don’t trust the government to get it through the parliament until it’s actually gone through the parliament.
[Lets be honest, Hawke actually didn’t achieve much.]
As in floating the dollar and financial market reforms/economic reforms?
I guess you call “modernising the Australian economy” not a great deal.
Paul Keating might agree with you however, he takes full credit for all of the above. 🙂
[Frank Calabrese
Posted Monday, September 5, 2011 at 9:18 pm | Permalink
12614
fredn
Posted Monday, September 5, 2011 at 9:17 pm | Permalink
confessions
Posted Monday, September 5, 2011 at 9:15 pm | Permalink
spur:
…..
Watch as the hysteria gears up a notch when parliament resumes. They won’t be gunning for Thomson to resign, they’ll be gunning for the PM to stand aside.
Will Labor turn to water once again, I await the outcome.
Once Bitten, Twice Shy.
Keep Dreaming.]
I’m not dreaming Frank, I’m hoping in two years time Labor can actually say “we achieved something”.
It would be a bonus if they actually left Abbott in the gutter when it come to immigration policy, but that might be a sane move too far.
[Pretty much. Rinse and repeat until somebody is proven right, then start the cycle again. Politics, eh?]
Lather, rinse, and repeat. Always repeat. 😀
[Will Labor turn to water once again]
I’m not sure they can. The party must know what damage was done to it after Rudd dropped carbon pricing because the Greens refused to support his bills.
[Thornleigh Labor Man
Posted Monday, September 5, 2011 at 9:21 pm | Permalink
Lets be honest, Hawke actually didn’t achieve much.
..
As in floating the dollar and financial market reforms/economic reforms?]
At best you could say Hawke ran interference while Keating got on with the job; at best.
[I am looking forward tonights result.]
Good, enjoy but your people will still be in opposition you realise.
[confessions
Posted Monday, September 5, 2011 at 9:22 pm | Permalink
Will Labor turn to water once again
I’m not sure they can. The party must know what damage was done to it after Rudd dropped carbon pricing because the Greens refused to support his bills.]
You know Labor would be better off if they where a little more honest, I was pissed of the Greens for not giving Moral support to Labor, but that is all it would have been. The Greens couldn’t have deliver the numbers.
JG is safe. The situation in parliament ensures it.
I’m fairly certain the Hawke Government re introduced NHS through Medicare.
Just a nothing according to Fredn.
Carbon tax beaut, so laughing serpent monkey and bulky colleague drink double orange kool-aid.
[12635
Gary
Posted Monday, September 5, 2011 at 9:26 pm | Permalink
JG is safe. The situation in parliament ensures it.
]
Exactly.
(Australian oranges only)
[JG is safe. The situation in parliament ensures it.]
Same was said of Rudd until the knock on the door at night 🙂
[Carbon tax beaut, so laughing serpent monkey and bulky colleague drink double orange kool-aid.]
touche`
The media will not turn on Abbott until he is PM.
The group think from the closeted Canberra Press Gallery and their bosses is that they are the real powerbrokers in Australia.
Look at the recent profile of the editor of The Australian. Look at the gotcha style.
The media was empowered when in effect in unseated Rudd. Now they have turned on Julia Gillard and they will turn on Abbott only when they can flex their collective muscle. I don’t think thee is a comparable approach to political coverage anywhere else – all polls and leadership speculation – the latter even happening when it was Howard v Costello.
[How could a green voter/ other voter be put down as labor or coalition if 2PP is calculated from the preference breakdown at the last election and not actually asked in each poll ?
I have no idea but just interested.]
Hi, too lazy to see if this was answered but TPP figures have to be taken from the previous election results generally, since their proportion in routine polling is too small and can easily be exaggerated (thus Greens votes are very frequently some 25% higher in polling than in an any general election). This too has issues with being truly indicative, since the last election may have been some years ago and the current polling usually refers to a hypothetical election ‘this weekend’. However, the Greens, being the largest of the minnows usually holds reasonably true by looking at vote exhaustion and averaging this over the state/country as required. Figures for Greens have ranged between 62-81% over the last 9 elections, state and federal for Labor.
This is more problematic now that Queensland and NSW have optional preferential voting. The preference picture is now muddied and somewhat less predictable… but only for state elections.
The remainder of the minor parties, including the WA Nationals, One Nation,CAC, Family First, CDP, DLP tend to show similar proportions towards Coalition/LNP in such elections.
It is really only of interest in really tightly contested marginal seats (the only time preferences really ever matter), in which case nationwide figures for predicted exhaustion have no statistically significant predictive value. Antony Green’s predictions on this basis are often, on election night, not particularly close to the final result for the seat.