The Courier-Mail today brings the sequel to yesterday’s 63-37 Galaxy state poll for Queensland, with the same sample also delivering 63-37 on federal voting intention. However, the Coalition’s primary vote lead is higher than in the state poll: 55 per cent to 23 per cent (with the Greens on 12 per cent) compared with 52 per cent to 28 per cent. That this produces the same two-party result is a handy measure of the penalty Labor suffers under the state’s optional preferential voting system, which deprives them of exhausting Greens preferences. This points to a swing from the 2010 election result of 8 per cent, which would neatly leave Kevin Rudd as Labor’s only surviving representative among the state’s complement of 30 House of Representatives seats. Speaking of Kevin Rudd, the poll also has him leading Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader by no less than 62 per cent to 18 per cent.
These apocalyptic figures for Labor sit fairly well with other recent polling. Adding the figures for Queensland from the last two monthly federal Nielsen polls gives a sample of 500, a margin of error a bit under 4.5 per cent, and a two-party preferred result of 66.5-33.5. The discrepancy here fits nicely with the fact that Nielsen has been tracking about two points worse for Labor than other pollsters this year.
The poll was conducted last Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 800, with a margin of error of about 3.5 per cent.
UPDATE: Further from the Courier-Mail:
Almost a year after Ms Gillard secured backing from independents Tony Windsor, Rob Oakeshott and Andrew Wilkie to form a government, 56 per cent of Queensland voters said the minority government was “worse than expected”. This is more than double the 24 per cent who feared the hung Parliament would be worse than expected in a Galaxy poll conducted in late November last year. There is also a growing fear in Queensland electorates about the role of the Greens in the Parliament. Almost two-thirds of voters – and 41 per cent of Labor voters – say the Greens have too much influence on the Government. In a similar poll in February, voters were split over whether the Greens had too much influence … Calls for an early election have increased, with 69 per cent of voters saying they want to elect a majority government. But they also expressed dissatisfaction with both parties, with 60 per cent of Labor supporters and 66 per cent of LNP supporters saying their vote was determined by not wanting to see the other party in power rather than a liking for the candidate.
I would like to see the wording of the question that had 69 per cent of voters “saying they want to elect a majority government”, as it is not immediately clear why it was inferred from this that “calls for an early election have increased”. UPDATE: Gayle in comments reveals all.
UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition’s lead steady at 56-44 from primary votes of 49 per cent for the Coalition (down one), 32 per cent for Labor (steady) and 10 per cent for the Greens (steady). There has basically been no change worth mentioning in the last ten Essential Research polls: Labor’s vote has ranged from 30 per cent to 32 per cent, the Coalition’s from 48 per cent to 50 per cent, the Greens from 10 per cent to 11 per cent, and two-party preferred from 55-45 to 57-43. Also canvassed:
• Opinion on various decisions and policies of the Labor government, which finds only the carbon tax and the Malaysia solution attracting disapproval. Spending on new school buildings, taxing mining companies and stopping live cattle exports all get the thumbs up, though not quite so resoundingly as spending on health services and increasing the aged pension.
• Respondents would favour more (48 per cent) rather than less (22 per cent) spending on new infrastructure and services in the event of a second GFC.
• Forty-four per cent believe the Opposition’s proposal to both abolish the carbon tax and keep the tax cuts it will fund will be good for the economy, against 30 per cent who think it will be bad.
• A question on what the government should do if the economy weakens further provides more evidence that voters like government spending but don’t like taxes. However, cutting interest rates tops the list of desired measures.
• Good news for organisers of anti-government rallies: despite weak attendances, 40 per cent say the rallies represent their views about the government (including 14 per cent of Labor and 10 per cent of Greens voters) against 38 per cent who say they don’t, while a slight majority (38 per cent to 36 per cent) approve of Tony Abbott lending them his support.
• Support for Australian involvement in Afghanistan has weakened still further since March: those who think our troop commitment should be increased is down a point to 4 per cent, kept at the same level is down four to 26 per cent, and complete withdrawal is up eight points to 64 per cent.
Hawke didn’t achieve much …
My laugh for the week
Interesting listing to the live stream of QandA while they talk to the audience about questions and legal issues and so forth, some one must have left the mike on.
Sorry, did someone here post the Hawke government didn’t do much?
listing = listening
[Greensborough Growler
Posted Monday, September 5, 2011 at 9:26 pm | Permalink
I’m fairly certain the Hawke Government re introduced NHS through Medicare.]
As NHS is an English construct, I doubt Hawke had much to do with it one way or the other. Perhaps the NPS, but I don’t know the history.
[Sorry, did someone here post the Hawke government didn’t do much?]
Burgey I attest it wasn’t me 😀
@GS/12620,
Problem with your posts is that, JG is still there, and has support of the Indies + Greens.
That is the current situation.
[Carbon tax beaut, so laughing serpent monkey and bulky colleague drink double orange kool-aid.]
puffyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy, dont take your gun to town
[Same was said of Rudd until the knock on the door at night]
It may have saved them last election but it won’t do it next time. If you’re one of those people believing it made things worse last time why would you be thinking they’d do it again this time?
[Problem with your posts is that, JG is still there, and has support of the Indies + Greens.]
So I’m not allowed to criticise her and say she’s finished until she gets the knock on the door at night?
Sounds a fishy kind of argument to me.
You’re all saying Abbott is finished when he’s not…fairs is fair.
fredn,
Medibank was abolished by the Fraser Libs after the coup. Hawke and his Government re introduced the Medicare System on arriving in office.
Before you slag off, learn your history.
If the topics polls and Rudd were banned on this site, the silence would be deafening!!!
it is becoming as predictable as the Murdoch, ABC anti Govt headlines…
No I posted Hawke didn’t do much, there is a difference. The Hawke government included Keating.
[Gary Sparrow
Posted Monday, September 5, 2011 at 9:34 pm | Permalink
Problem with your posts is that, JG is still there, and has support of the Indies + Greens.
So I’m not allowed to criticise her and say she’s finished until she gets the knock on the door at night?
Sounds a fishy kind of argument to me.
You’re all saying Abbott is finished when he’s not…fairs is fair.
]
Your man Abbott is more like to get a knock on the Door than the PM will 🙂
The pig was Bolt, not Jones (apols to Alan)
[Sounds a fishy kind of argument to me.]
glen, you will find out, that’s the japanese tale
[It may have saved them last election but it won’t do it next time. If you’re one of those people believing it made things worse last time why would you be thinking they’d do it again this time?]
I don’t think they would.
The only way is her resigning herself and not being pushed because yes that would be a bad move.
Goodness
12657 posts in a string. What is the all-time Bludger record?
[If the topics polls and Rudd were banned on this site, the silence would be deafening!!!
it is becoming as predictable as the Murdoch, ABC anti Govt headlines…]
Then it would just be “bludger”… which describes, aptly, some of our cherished members…..
[Greensborough Growler
Posted Monday, September 5, 2011 at 9:34 pm | Permalink
fredn,
Medibank was abolished by the Fraser Libs after the coup. Hawke and his Government re introduced the Medicare System on arriving in office.
Before you slag off, learn your history.]
NHS is not medicare and Fraser did not abolish medicare. Perhaps you should be a little less one eyed.
Hawke also negotiated the Accord which created the structure under which the Keating reforms could be introduced.
BK
She’s on!
[Lets be honest, Hawke actually didn’t achieve much.]
😯
[glen, you will find out, that’s the japanese tale]
Hai!
Sophie is not rabbit-clad. Am disappointed.
The general public still see Rudd as the legitimate prime minister- Gillard was just an experiment gone wrong
The trowels have been employed in the hours before QandA started.
Your post-poll talking points:
If worse for the govt:
pro-gov:
“All within the MoE”
“Not bad considering a bad week.”
anti-gov:
“Labor finished. Writing on wall.”
“Kev would be miles ahead.”
If the same:
pro-gov:
“Not bad considering bad week for the govt.”
“Peak Abbott has been reached.”
anti-gov:
“Labor are finished. Writing is on the wall.”
“Kev would be miles ahead”
If better for the govt:
pro-gov:
“The numbers are bouncing back!”
anti-gov:
“Labor are finished. Especially if this is what you consider a good poll”
“Movement within MoE”
“Kev would be miles ahead.”
If Govt leads the poll:
pro-gov:
“HAHAHA! Looks like the Lib supporters spoke too soon!”
“Probably a rogue but part of me thinks it’s true”
anti-gov:
“Rogue”
“Kev would be miles ahead”
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
oh no, Sophie Innovation? #qanda
52 seconds ago
Boerwar:
More to the point, who is the 1 millionth Bludger comment?!
Oh, Sophie looks like she is bursting to spit venom at Combet.
Greg not next to La Sophie. Good move!
Is BK Sophies’ choice?
@GS/12653,
Criticizing is one thing, telling the JG to jump on the bases of a newspoll is very different matter.
I criticize on both sides of the house, not just sticking to one of them, simply because they can be, at worst times, not good enough (to say it lightly).
It is so refreshing to be in this room now, compared with 2007-2008.
At least now the hollow bleating about the media’s fault/conspiracy in Labor’s demise, the elevation of statistical error to an almost ‘grail-like’ quality in satiating deniers in the abysmal polling bloodbath is more ironic, if a little strident.
I found the constant grandstanding of the merest half-percentage poll point taken as ironclad proof of the ALP’s impending annihilation of the coalition and the death knell of the coalition in Australia far more grinding.
I do think that commentators dismissing the ALP as ‘gone’ are, as they can afford to be, far too premature. It is easy to make such grand proclamations when your job is to to steal a few column inches to make someone pause long enough to look at the full page Woolies ad on the opposite spread. Journos are rarely called to account for crappy predictions like this…
Truth is, our two parties/coalitions of governance in Australia will both be here for a very long time, I’d expect. What would be interesting, and refreshing for our democracy, would be if a genuinely centrist party could fill a gap between the ALP and LIB. That would be VERY interesting…
http://www.climatespectator.com.au/commentary/why-wind-cutting-energy-costs
Minister Combet should be spruiking this story wherever he goes. Green electricity can drive down costs as well as pollution, and reduce the need for peak-load investment.
[Why wind is cutting energy costs
Giles Parkinson
The most common critique of wind energy, and renewables in general, in the mainstream media and anywhere the issue is discussed is that it is expensive.
The problem is, this is only half true. Or at least, it only tells half the story. While the levelised cost of energy from wind farms is higher than that of baseload coal and gas, the deployment of wind energy here and overseas is having a surprising impact on energy market prices: it is causing them to fall…..
…..Now Windlab Systems, the CSIRO spin-off that has developed the world’s leading wind mapping technology and is now in the business of developing wind farms – including some in places in inland Australia where you wouldn’t expect them – has produced a similar assessment of how its proposed 700MW Kennedy wind farm in north Queensland would impact pool prices in the state. But it says the cost benefits could be even greater.
According to modeling presented at a seminar in Sydney last week, a 700MW wind farm – which would be the largest in the country – would cost consumers $120 million a year from 2013/14 from the amount of renewable energy certificates that are used to subsidise green energy under the renewable energy target. (That figure is based on a REC price of $55/MWh, compared to around $40 now).
But the modeling also suggests that the amount of electricity generated by the wind farm would cause pool prices to fall by up to 9 per cent, reducing the average price in 2013/14 from around $67/MWh (a carbon price would be included by then) to around $61/MWh. The savings in costs to consumers would be $330 million, nearly three times the cost of the subsidy. There is a further cost benefit from a reduction in transmission losses, because the wind farm would be situated far closer to customers than current generators. Windlab estimates these savings to be around 5 per cent from the cost of energy.]
Fredn
Yesterday you were pro Labor to the point of troll …
And today you are bagging out Bob Hawke and the Hawke government.
And for no reason at all – Hawke lead a very effective government which besides starting the ball rolling on financial deregulation, also introduced Medicare, had a very effective industry policy under John Button, and fiscally very controlled under Peter Walsh.
The effectiveness of Bob Hawke was that he let his able ministers (and the early years of the Hawke government had huge talent) get on with their jobs without too much interference. He provided much of the narrative and the glue. Things got unstuck economically in the early 90s recession but generally you can say it was a success.
Is Sophie still wearing her mudpack. (Remark courtesy of Mrs BK)
Carey:
😆
Greg: “Tony can go and get stuffed.” wtte.
Sophie is SO caring.
Fredn,
http://www.aph.gov.au/library/intguide/sp/medicare.htm
12627 spur
[Climate Change policy has been up in the air since 2008. ]
Leave the funny lines for Finns.
[Your post-poll talking points:
If worse for the govt:
pro-gov:
“All within the MoE”
“Not bad considering a bad week.”
anti-gov:
“Labor finished. Writing on wall.”
“Kev would be miles ahead.”
If the same:
pro-gov:
“Not bad considering bad week for the govt.”
“Peak Abbott has been reached.”
anti-gov:
“Labor are finished. Writing is on the wall.”
“Kev would be miles ahead”
If better for the govt:
pro-gov:
“The numbers are bouncing back!”
anti-gov:
“Labor are finished. Especially if this is what you consider a good poll”
“Movement within MoE”
“Kev would be miles ahead.”
If Govt leads the poll:
pro-gov:
“HAHAHA! Looks like the Lib supporters spoke too soon!”
“Probably a rogue but part of me thinks it’s true”
anti-gov:
“Rogue”
“Kev would be miles ahead”]
Nothing left to be said really… 😆
[fredn,
Medibank was abolished by the Fraser Libs after the coup. Hawke and his Government re introduced the Medicare System on arriving in office.
Before you slag off, learn your history.]
GG, doesn’t often happen .. but I agree with every word.
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
Sophie, no need to clarify. Abbott said HC didnt apply to Nauru, you idiot. #auspol #qanda
53 seconds ago
Sophie is so much better looking than Julia… and less naisly.
Can she please be PM?
Mr Jones interrupts/cuts off Ms Mirabella three times! And she takes it.
Ms Mirabella, how disappointment!
BK, she is open to interlocutary interruptus!
Carey, you’ve covered all the rsponses beautifully.
Did Sophie go to a school that required the nose to be uplifted?
Sneaked a peek at qanda to hear Sophie speaking but saying nothing.
The solution to AS is a border protection policy but there isn’t one.
Huh?