Galaxy: 63-37 to federal Coalition in Queensland

The Courier-Mail today brings the sequel to yesterday’s 63-37 Galaxy state poll for Queensland, with the same sample also delivering 63-37 on federal voting intention. However, the Coalition’s primary vote lead is higher than in the state poll: 55 per cent to 23 per cent (with the Greens on 12 per cent) compared with 52 per cent to 28 per cent. That this produces the same two-party result is a handy measure of the penalty Labor suffers under the state’s optional preferential voting system, which deprives them of exhausting Greens preferences. This points to a swing from the 2010 election result of 8 per cent, which would neatly leave Kevin Rudd as Labor’s only surviving representative among the state’s complement of 30 House of Representatives seats. Speaking of Kevin Rudd, the poll also has him leading Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader by no less than 62 per cent to 18 per cent.

These apocalyptic figures for Labor sit fairly well with other recent polling. Adding the figures for Queensland from the last two monthly federal Nielsen polls gives a sample of 500, a margin of error a bit under 4.5 per cent, and a two-party preferred result of 66.5-33.5. The discrepancy here fits nicely with the fact that Nielsen has been tracking about two points worse for Labor than other pollsters this year.

The poll was conducted last Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 800, with a margin of error of about 3.5 per cent.

UPDATE: Further from the Courier-Mail:

Almost a year after Ms Gillard secured backing from independents Tony Windsor, Rob Oakeshott and Andrew Wilkie to form a government, 56 per cent of Queensland voters said the minority government was “worse than expected”. This is more than double the 24 per cent who feared the hung Parliament would be worse than expected in a Galaxy poll conducted in late November last year. There is also a growing fear in Queensland electorates about the role of the Greens in the Parliament. Almost two-thirds of voters – and 41 per cent of Labor voters – say the Greens have too much influence on the Government. In a similar poll in February, voters were split over whether the Greens had too much influence … Calls for an early election have increased, with 69 per cent of voters saying they want to elect a majority government. But they also expressed dissatisfaction with both parties, with 60 per cent of Labor supporters and 66 per cent of LNP supporters saying their vote was determined by not wanting to see the other party in power rather than a liking for the candidate.

I would like to see the wording of the question that had 69 per cent of voters “saying they want to elect a majority government”, as it is not immediately clear why it was inferred from this that “calls for an early election have increased”. UPDATE: Gayle in comments reveals all.

UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition’s lead steady at 56-44 from primary votes of 49 per cent for the Coalition (down one), 32 per cent for Labor (steady) and 10 per cent for the Greens (steady). There has basically been no change worth mentioning in the last ten Essential Research polls: Labor’s vote has ranged from 30 per cent to 32 per cent, the Coalition’s from 48 per cent to 50 per cent, the Greens from 10 per cent to 11 per cent, and two-party preferred from 55-45 to 57-43. Also canvassed:

• Opinion on various decisions and policies of the Labor government, which finds only the carbon tax and the Malaysia solution attracting disapproval. Spending on new school buildings, taxing mining companies and stopping live cattle exports all get the thumbs up, though not quite so resoundingly as spending on health services and increasing the aged pension.

• Respondents would favour more (48 per cent) rather than less (22 per cent) spending on new infrastructure and services in the event of a second GFC.

• Forty-four per cent believe the Opposition’s proposal to both abolish the carbon tax and keep the tax cuts it will fund will be good for the economy, against 30 per cent who think it will be bad.

• A question on what the government should do if the economy weakens further provides more evidence that voters like government spending but don’t like taxes. However, cutting interest rates tops the list of desired measures.

• Good news for organisers of anti-government rallies: despite weak attendances, 40 per cent say the rallies represent their views about the government (including 14 per cent of Labor and 10 per cent of Greens voters) against 38 per cent who say they don’t, while a slight majority (38 per cent to 36 per cent) approve of Tony Abbott lending them his support.

• Support for Australian involvement in Afghanistan has weakened still further since March: those who think our troop commitment should be increased is down a point to 4 per cent, kept at the same level is down four to 26 per cent, and complete withdrawal is up eight points to 64 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

12,800 comments on “Galaxy: 63-37 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  1. [Burgey

    Posted Monday, August 29, 2011 at 3:12 am | Permalink

    Where else but Queensland?

    and with such a small sample as well – double of Westpoll 🙂

    Why do Galaxy bother with such pithy polls ?

  2. Except for the fact that it fits in well with the newspoll and fits with the last Neilsen that we have.

    Which all predict a wip out of the ALP in Qld, together their margin of error is not high

  3. [dovif

    Posted Monday, August 29, 2011 at 3:42 am | Permalink

    Except for the fact that it fits in well with the newspoll and fits with the last Neilsen that we have.

    Which all predict a wip out of the ALP in Qld, together their margin of error is not high

    Keep Dreaming – 2 Years is a LONG time in politics.

  4. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans
    i smell fish in #Daegu, South Korea with #UsainBolt. Just as well it is not Busan, where they have a great and huge LIVE fish market
    58 seconds ago

  5. lizzie @ 2404 (previous thread):

    Agree, a sense of humour is helpful in such circumstances.

    feeney @ 2407 (previous thread):

    Thanks for the further clarification re. HC judge & the odious SC.

    keeza2 @ 2433 (previous thread):

    I concede you were on the money & instructions are now restored.

    Boewar @ 2438 (previous thread):


    Fiz @ 2647 (previous thread):

    A good summary of the Queensland situation.

    In light of this latest poll I’m off for the day to attempt to change my fellow Queenslanders’ view of the Labor Party. It may take some time.

  6. I realise that NSW has the most seats at stake but this is still a terrible result for Labor in Queensland. The next election would just about be lost in that state alone on these numbers. The government needs to understand what is going on there.

  7. William, when you say “the same sample” of Qld voters delivered identical state and federal results, do you mean the exact same people, or the same number?

    If the same number of different people were surveyed, then the result seems like a neat statistical coincidence; but if the same people were asked both state and federal voting intentions, could one result not skew the other?

  8. Meanwhile this awful story in Libya shows just why an entire nation rose up against Gaddafi: his forces took 60,000 people prisoner this year, and only 10,000 have been found. Grave fears are held for the rest.
    [A rebel military spokesman said opposition fighters had freed about 10,000 prisoners who had been arrested by Moamar Gaddafi’s security force since the uprising against his rule started six months ago.

    “The number of people arrested over the past months is estimated at between 57,000 and 60,000,” said Ahmed Omar Bani at a press conference in the rebel bastion of Benghazi.

    “Between 10,000 and 11,000 prisoners have been freed up until now… so where are the others?”

    Expressing deep concern about their fate, he said “many people in Tripoli are now discovering mass graves around former detention centres and the prison in Abu Slim.”

    Reuters news agency claimed earlier this week to have discovered an apparent massacre site in Tripoli; and separately about 50 charred corpses were found in a warehouse south of the capital on Saturday.]

    Also I might be being pedantic here but why would the ABC say “Reuters claimed”? Is Reuters unreliable? Don’t they mean “Reuters reported…”. If a pile of bodies was found, that is a fact, not a claim. The claim would be over the question of who killed them.

  9. Ozymandias

    It depends if the sample is reflective of the population, and this sample gave the same 2PP prefer as the last Neilson poll, which gave a breakdown of state based voting intention.

    People of NSW seems to understand the difference between federal and state, where they gave the NSW state a hiding and gave the Federal ALP an ok 48% 2PP

    In Qld, it is probably just a bad state government + a bad federal government tarnishing the ALP brand

  10. Finns

    Have you been following the stories from Fukushima recently? They have finally admitted the truth. As I suggested months ago, most of the 80,000 evacuated people won’t be going back to their homes for decades.

  11. Of all people, Clive Palmer blasts the coal seam gas industry as “poisonous”:
    [Speaking to the National Party’s Federal Council in Canberra, Mr Palmer said a leading Chinese firm had raised issues with him about the Australian industry, saying extraction techniques they abandoned 20 years ago are still being used here.

    The Queensland mining billionaire told the crowd that his Chinese counterparts had delivered a stern warning.

    “Coal seam gas technology currently used in Australia is lethal and will kill Australians, poison our water table and destroy the land,” he said.]

    I don’t know much about this technology but of concern to me is that none of the environmental scientists I know would sign off on it being safe. I think there is a need to halt any further work before we have a greater degree of certainty over the safety.

  12. Oh, FFS!


    [In a speech to the Sydney Institute in June, senior minister Anthony Albanese lamented that one of Labor’s failures was to romanticise its past rather than accentuate the present.

    “Fundamental reforms implemented by Labor have been entrenched in a way that it is easy to forget how hard they were fought,” he said.

    “Universal pensions, the Snowy Mountains scheme, Medicare, native title rights, protection of the Daintree, Kakadu and the Franklin River, universal superannuation and the apology to indigenous Australians to name but a few. Because we are committed to reform, we are tempted to keep moving forward from issue to issue, without properly embedding in the national consciousness what we have achieved.”

    It is not for want of trying that Labor is now attempting to reverse this trend. It just lacks the clear air and political capital needed. In spades.]

    Four major policy announcements last week and all Coorey could write about yesterday was Thomson. He even got a junior assistant to co-write it with him, he had sooooo much to say about this terrible scandal.

    It was all the Insiders talked about too, even getting down to the fine detail of how they shouldn’t press too hard, maybe just back off a little in the waterboarding (and this included the usually sane Megalogenis, who actually brought the subject up!), or else Thomson might try to top himself (would want another “Hello Possum!” episode).

    Bolt has “stat decs on the way” that will bring down the government forthwith.

    Abbott’s calling a spade a shovel gets front page.

    200 protestors and their trucks are treated as the voice of the people.

    A Channel 9 news reader mocks the government, actually accusing them of desperation in trying to talk about policy and governance.

    It’s been SSOs and a full media Inquisition with wall to wall tits and bums.

    The media just reports all this from one side, then swings the camera and the microphone around to the government crying, “Top that! Whaddaya reckon?”

    They’re not players, no, no, no… they’re meek monitors, just doing their job.

    And now Coorey blames the government for not being able to get its message out? Worse actually, he blithely writes, in brilliant passive voice, “it just lacks clear air”… oh really?

    There is nothing the government can do about Thomson. They’re stuck with him. they’re not going to sack him, or ban him from the party, or pressure him to resign. They’re not going to throw away government over a minor incident that happens to have major implications if they stuff it up.

    The government is a tethered goat, and the media knows it. Easy meat. Irresistable!

    It’s no good raving on about what might have happened, or what they could have done when we have Episode #497 of Destroyed In Seconds available for constant replay and slo-mo analysis: Reality TV on endless loop. Find a minor infraction and beat up the hell out of it, turning it into the greatest moral crisis of our times.

    The sickening sight yesterday of the Insiders trying to turn Thomson’s “crime” into something that would have made Ted Bundy blush just about took the cake for me. Ordinary rorting of credit cards – and let’s face it, rorting expenses is just about a wholly owned brand of the journalism profession, isn’t it? – wasn’t enough to match the relentless moralizing and sniggering, much less the front page acreage wasted on Thomson.

    So they made Thommo into a metaphor for class warfare, Animal Farm-style: pigs, snouts in the trough, versus honest farm animals, slaving away for $10 an hour, wiping shitty bums in nursing homes while their masters wallowed in escort ladies, frivolous law suits and lavish cash advances.

    It wouldn’t have mattered if Thomson had had a car accident and injured someone while DUI. Or whether he had fiddled some trust money in a tax return. Or even – God forbid – done a little shoplifting and then bashed the store security guard for good measure. There must be a million things that carry a theoretical sentence of 12 months if you’re convicted. It’s not the seriousness of the crime, its the seriousness of the consequences that matter.

    But our moralizing media can’t help themselves.

    They lament, crying rivers of crocodile tears, that the government “lacks clear air”. “How could things have possibly come to this?” they write.

    This whole circus is spinning out of control. The media feeds a scandal-starved public, used to a diet of salacious gossip and confected outrage, but the public wants more and more. Usually some foul-mouthed chef, a boorish footy player, a bikini model or a radio personality’s pecadilloes will do, but when you’ve got a member of the government in the spotlight, it’s just too juicy to ignore. The mill must be fed grist to grind into its constituent elements.

    Jay Rosen, the visiting American journalism professor who humiliated Tony Jones the other night, was oh so polite trying to point this out, but Jones smirked all over him, even told him at one stage that he was asking the questions, not Rosen. Rosen merely smiled sweetly at that.

    I suggest Rosen abandons his prepared lectures and interviews that don’t seem to go the way the interviewer likes. All he really needs to do is mount the stage, hold up the front page of any of our major newspapers… and point.

  13. Dovif
    The Bligh government is NOT a bad government – far from it.

    However Bligh foolishly allowed privatisatisation of railways ports etc, after denying it at the last election. This was a huge blow to their credibility.

    Newman has all the gloss of an unknown

  14. I don’t know why anyone takes much notice of Galaxy polls, except in the few weeks before an election (which will provide and independent check on their accuracy). They always seem to be skewed towards whatever line is likely to sell the maximum number of News Ltd tabloids. After NOTW, who can trust anything much out of News Ltd?

  15. Socrates
    Apparently, carcinogens have been found in the test wells on the Darling Downs.
    To be fair, they are still examining whether these are occurring naturally or created by diesel contaminates.

  16. [However Bligh foolishly allowed privatisatisation of railways ports etc, after denying it at the last election. This was a huge blow to their credibility.]
    When Howard came up to Qld to give the LNP electioneering advice he aked the LNP to explain why they are against rail privatisation.
    He went on to say that privatisation was Liberal party policy.

  17. Bootstrap Watch, Episode #9,782…

    Yesterday someone here wrote up a story from the OO where it claimed Glen Stevens had “called on” the Gillard government to abandon its IR laws. The PBer pointed out Stevens had said no such thing.

    Today we have part #2 of the bootstrap. From the front page of the OO on line:

    [Unions escalate IR war with RBA

    Sid Maher THE nation’s most senior unionist has lashed RBA governor Glenn Stevens’s call for the Gillard government to review its IR laws.]

  18. Dee

    All true

    But the local LNP opposed it.

    The point is it damaged Bligh very badly. There is also the “Its Time” factor happening.

    Federally sorry to sound like a broken record but the Rudd dismissal continues to damage. I suspect that for OLDER people who remember the Hayden shafting they see it a a repeat run – Qld leader toppled brutally by Victorian (Mexican in Qld words).

    It would be interesting to know just where the Galaxy poll selected voters. Qls is a large state with regional cities.

  19. The most devastating poll figure for Gillard: only 18% of Queenslanders prefer her as PM/Labor leader, more than 40 points behind her predecessor.
    Not sure how she turns this one around, short of begging Rudd to do a few joint appearances with her after he returns from leave.

  20. All this chatter about election in 2 years etc, etc.

    The reality is that very few governments go full term. If everything goes well for Gillard then an election early 2013 is likely. It is also likely if poling stays at the current level and an election before June 2013 allows separate senate elections which would be in Labor’s long term interest if poling is dire.

    In other words with the best will in the world a June 2013 election would seem kike a good idea. However an election much sooner must not be discounted.
    June-August 2012 also seem likely dates if the poker machine reforms fail and Wilkie pulls the plug.

  21. [June-August 2012 also seem likely dates if the poker machine reforms fail and Wilkie pulls the plug.]

    I find it hard to believe Wilkie would throw away Carbon Pricing, the NBN, Health reforms (including tobacco plain packaging), plus $70 billion in government services, including the sacking of 12,000 public servants… and all the rest of the Gillard reforms… for one single issue.

    But then, that’s just me.

    On the other hand, you can never rely on a fanatic like Wilkie to see common sense.

  22. If things haven’t turned around by July next year, I wonder if the eternally optimistic Gillardites will start losing hope?

  23. Morning Bludgers. TLM – I just read your comments on the previous thread about Kevin Rudd and Richardson so thought I’d check out what Richo himself has said –

    [LABOR kingmaker Graham Richardson has declared his hand in Kevin Rudd’s political assassination and says he would do it all over again. It has been said Mr Richardson – the former minister who has made and unmade prime ministers and premiers from Bob Hawke to Morris Iemma – united NSW and Victorian factional heavyweights so they could move quickly and cleanly against Mr Rudd, although the tactician had downplayed his role.
    Speaking candidly about the prime ministerial execution a year ago today, the man known to all as “Richo” said Mr Rudd was cut down in record time for a leader – just two days of active plotting – and he was “staggered” at how little support the PM had in the caucus.

    “I was there on the phone with a few people offering my view of the world,” he said.
    “I don’t believe he could have won an election. I don’t think he could have got as many seats as she did.
    “After Copenhagen he seemed to go into some sort of funk. He wasn’t the same. He just didn’t know what to do. So I think getting rid of him was something we had to do.”]

    Whatever Richardson says on Murdoch media or shockjock radio can only be for his own self interest and to fill his coffers and the more controversial the better.

  24. Pedro in the previous thread made some good points about the situation in Qld; and that is followed with this poll. If this poll is reasonably accruate, then it is truly dire for ALP in Qld. Queenslanders are notoriously stubborn.

  25. BB

    Who said manufacturing was in decline: The Australian is manufacturing the story that the RBA is pressing the government o look at workchoices:

    Peter Martin calls them on the issue

    And by the way, the RBA has no mandate on microeconomic (or fiscal) policies.

    The scum at the Australian rising to the top…

  26. Abbott paranoid about being double crossed according to The Canberra Times

    Tony Abbott has little trust for his front bench and is paranoid about being double-crossed, according to a number of senior members of his team who have expressed a growing unease over the Opposition Leader’s style.

    Some shadow ministers as well as numerous backbenchers have told The Canberra Times that Mr Abbott is nervous about many of those around him and that he is making too many unilateral decisions.

  27. Will the QLD ALP panic and replace Bligh with someone else before their state election(Paul Lucas or Andrew Fraser)?
    Julia is obviously on the nose in the Sunshine State, but the State Government’s problems would be an extra pile of lead in her saddlebag.

  28. morning bludgers

    I switched on ABC radio before and someone was bleating on how bad this govt is blah blah blah. I did not allow enough time to ascertain who it was, but the message was clear. Bad govt

  29. BB
    Wilkie made it absolutely clear yesterday ion Insiders that he would withdraw support in May if the legislation was not passed. No wriggle room given at all.

    Except – he hinted that other independents might switch to Labor.

  30. [Queenslanders are notoriously stubborn.]
    Qlder’s are pig ignorant.
    I’ve never met such a large group of people who are so easily influenced by gossip & fear.
    As for Rudd, he’s polls in Qld were dire before being ousted.
    Then the real hypocritical sting in the tail.
    Who do the National party supporting farmers call into fight for their cause against CSG?

    The Greens!

  31. Business leaders in NSW already dissatisfied with the O’Farrell State Government & its lack of any reform measures.

  32. [ajm
    Posted Monday, August 29, 2011 at 8:00 am | Permalink
    I don’t know why anyone takes much notice of Galaxy polls, except in the few weeks before an election (which will provide and independent check on their accuracy). They always seem to be skewed towards whatever line is likely to sell the maximum number of News Ltd tabloids. After NOTW, who can trust anything much out of News Ltd?]

    AJM when i log on i shut my eyes till i get past the polls. they have no reason for me to read pb only the news on the site and the comments from pb, lab, and greens only

  33. I am not st home, but just wanted to know what the incredible revelation that Andrew Bolt was unleashing today? I won’t open the Hun on principle so please let me know, can’t see any headlines on internet that JG has resigned PLEASE HELP

  34. Dee
    [I’ve never met such a large group of people who are so easily influenced by gossip & fear.]
    You should move to Adelaide! Coincidentally, Brisbane and Adelaide both rely on one Murdoch newspaper for “information”.

  35. [Qlder’s are pig ignorant.
    I’ve never met such a large group of people who are so easily influenced by gossip & fear.]

    DEE said above

    dee as an 18 year old i had year in Brisbane working, one of the girls said she had told her mother she was taking me out to lunch, girls mother horrified.

    why would you take a black person out to lunch, mother thought tasmania had all the last remaining indigenous persons,,,,,,,true story dee they where city people and the girl had a good education,

  36. victoria – you would have enjoyed Paul Barry on ABC Breakfast this morning. As BK posted earlier, it was a cracker against the RW media and shockjocks. I saw it before 7 am but OH says it was on a couple of times after that as well. You may be able to pick it up on Iview later. If a few more speak out we may actually get a little balance around the place.

    BTW – I enjoyed reading that the Indies, including Katter and Crook, think that the Govt is doing quite a good job and don’t agree with Abbbott that it is a bad government. Interesting!

  37. mari i dont think there is anything,
    we can see but its early in the morning,

    i think there was some comments yesterday not sure if those where correct but
    apparently the PM said she needed some comedy wtte

    also not sure if she was refering to his comments

  38. Abbott defends Senator Fisher’s continuing to receive a fee for chairing a Senate committee, even though she has stood aside from the position, because she has “a very serious mental health issue”.

    WTF? Is he pre-empting Senator Fisher’s courtroom defence? Was this a pre-existing mental health issue, that may have contributed to her alleged crimes? Or has her mental health problem developed as a result of the charges against her?

    If she was mentally ill before the alleged offences, how is that she was elected by the Coalition to chair a Senate committee?

    If her illness is a consequence of the charges against her, how is it that she has merely stood aside from the committee, rather than resigning and foregoing the fee, as Thomson has done?

  39. dareto tread i didnt hear wilkie say that at all about other ind.,

    i think BH can point to exactly what the other ind. said in another on line interview.

  40. TLM- Evan

    There is NO WAY Bligh will be challenged. Lucas is yesterday’s man and not popular.
    Fraser will be hard pressed hanging on to his seat- actually if this polling is correct he has Buckey’s chance of winning. This is especially true of his seat which has a very high Greens vote. It is the seat the Greens have often targeted for an actual WIN and have come close.

  41. [Pedro in the previous thread made some good points about the situation in Qld; and that is followed with this poll. If this poll is reasonably accruate, then it is truly dire for ALP in Qld. Queenslanders are notoriously stubborn.]

    A bit of good old fashioned workchoices (loss of pay and conditions) will soon fix that. Workers who vote for politicians whose main raison d’etre is to represent the big end of town deserve whatever they get. And let’s not forget, even Queenslanders eventually woke up that they were being screwed by Bjelke Peterson.

    (No offence meant to any of the admirable Queensland contributors to PB. Just a bit of bile coming up over the stupidity of it all).

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