Galaxy: 63-37 to federal Coalition in Queensland

The Courier-Mail today brings the sequel to yesterday’s 63-37 Galaxy state poll for Queensland, with the same sample also delivering 63-37 on federal voting intention. However, the Coalition’s primary vote lead is higher than in the state poll: 55 per cent to 23 per cent (with the Greens on 12 per cent) compared with 52 per cent to 28 per cent. That this produces the same two-party result is a handy measure of the penalty Labor suffers under the state’s optional preferential voting system, which deprives them of exhausting Greens preferences. This points to a swing from the 2010 election result of 8 per cent, which would neatly leave Kevin Rudd as Labor’s only surviving representative among the state’s complement of 30 House of Representatives seats. Speaking of Kevin Rudd, the poll also has him leading Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader by no less than 62 per cent to 18 per cent.

These apocalyptic figures for Labor sit fairly well with other recent polling. Adding the figures for Queensland from the last two monthly federal Nielsen polls gives a sample of 500, a margin of error a bit under 4.5 per cent, and a two-party preferred result of 66.5-33.5. The discrepancy here fits nicely with the fact that Nielsen has been tracking about two points worse for Labor than other pollsters this year.

The poll was conducted last Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 800, with a margin of error of about 3.5 per cent.

UPDATE: Further from the Courier-Mail:

Almost a year after Ms Gillard secured backing from independents Tony Windsor, Rob Oakeshott and Andrew Wilkie to form a government, 56 per cent of Queensland voters said the minority government was “worse than expected”. This is more than double the 24 per cent who feared the hung Parliament would be worse than expected in a Galaxy poll conducted in late November last year. There is also a growing fear in Queensland electorates about the role of the Greens in the Parliament. Almost two-thirds of voters – and 41 per cent of Labor voters – say the Greens have too much influence on the Government. In a similar poll in February, voters were split over whether the Greens had too much influence … Calls for an early election have increased, with 69 per cent of voters saying they want to elect a majority government. But they also expressed dissatisfaction with both parties, with 60 per cent of Labor supporters and 66 per cent of LNP supporters saying their vote was determined by not wanting to see the other party in power rather than a liking for the candidate.

I would like to see the wording of the question that had 69 per cent of voters “saying they want to elect a majority government”, as it is not immediately clear why it was inferred from this that “calls for an early election have increased”. UPDATE: Gayle in comments reveals all.

UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition’s lead steady at 56-44 from primary votes of 49 per cent for the Coalition (down one), 32 per cent for Labor (steady) and 10 per cent for the Greens (steady). There has basically been no change worth mentioning in the last ten Essential Research polls: Labor’s vote has ranged from 30 per cent to 32 per cent, the Coalition’s from 48 per cent to 50 per cent, the Greens from 10 per cent to 11 per cent, and two-party preferred from 55-45 to 57-43. Also canvassed:

• Opinion on various decisions and policies of the Labor government, which finds only the carbon tax and the Malaysia solution attracting disapproval. Spending on new school buildings, taxing mining companies and stopping live cattle exports all get the thumbs up, though not quite so resoundingly as spending on health services and increasing the aged pension.

• Respondents would favour more (48 per cent) rather than less (22 per cent) spending on new infrastructure and services in the event of a second GFC.

• Forty-four per cent believe the Opposition’s proposal to both abolish the carbon tax and keep the tax cuts it will fund will be good for the economy, against 30 per cent who think it will be bad.

• A question on what the government should do if the economy weakens further provides more evidence that voters like government spending but don’t like taxes. However, cutting interest rates tops the list of desired measures.

• Good news for organisers of anti-government rallies: despite weak attendances, 40 per cent say the rallies represent their views about the government (including 14 per cent of Labor and 10 per cent of Greens voters) against 38 per cent who say they don’t, while a slight majority (38 per cent to 36 per cent) approve of Tony Abbott lending them his support.

• Support for Australian involvement in Afghanistan has weakened still further since March: those who think our troop commitment should be increased is down a point to 4 per cent, kept at the same level is down four to 26 per cent, and complete withdrawal is up eight points to 64 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

12,800 comments on “Galaxy: 63-37 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  1. [48 Dee
    Posted Monday, August 29, 2011 at 9:10 am | Permalink
    I see The Australian is building a case for the return of Workchoices]

    well that one case i hope get front page news every day

  2. Mari
    [I am not st home, but just wanted to know what the incredible revelation that Andrew Bolt was unleashing today?]
    I’ll take a few guesses at possible Bolt revelations:
    [Labor plot discovered: government intends to keep governing
    Abbott: “I don’t know why I’m not PM. Elections are just crap”
    Why Craig Thompson proves all unions are equally evil
    BHPB $22 billion profit proves Australia is in recession
    How Workchoices would have saved us from recession]

  3. mari

    I have dead tree version of The Age and Herald Sun.

    there is no printed article from Bolt in the Sun. Alan Howes has a piece today.

  4. ps charlton
    you where one brave man coming to tasmania in winter from queensland.

    now confess it wasnt that bad after all was it ?
    lol

  5. [the Indies, including Katter and Crook, think that the Govt is doing quite a good job and don’t agree with Abbbott that it is a bad government. Interesting!]

    Not just a bad government. The worst we have ever had, according to Abbott. If this dork manages to get himself elected PM, then we’ll see the worst government we have ever had.

  6. Ozymandius 46

    Excellent questions.

    Simple question for Abbott: does he think Senator Fisher’s mental health condition is both sufficiently serious to limit her liability for her actions, yet not serious enough to limit her ability to act as a Senator?

  7. Hi William

    The wording for the question regarding the 69% is as follows :-

    “Would you be in favour of or opposed to holding a fresh election to give voters an opportunity to elect a majority Labor or Coalition government?”

    In favour 93% are LNP supporters

    Another strange question is

    “Is your preference for (PARTY) because of your liking for this party or candidate, or because you don’t want to vote for the (ALP/LIBERAL NATIONAL PARTY)
    ALP SUPPORTERS

    Liking for party 37%
    Not vote for other party 60%
    Uncommitted 3 %

    LNP SUPPORTERS

    Liking for party 32%
    Not vote for other party 66%
    Uncommitted 2%

    The only positive is that Abbott’s PPM has gone down 3% since 19th May.

  8. [socretas wrote
    Also I might be being pedantic here but why would the ABC say “Reuters claimed”? Is Reuters unreliable? Don’t they mean “Reuters reported…”. If a pile of bodies was found, that is a fact, not a claim. The claim would be over the question of who killed them.]

    my goodness you have a quick eye for things.

    and what do the abc say when quoting, msm cannot rmember but we all know they say the ” oppostion said” like its the bible according to …..

  9. gayle

    How have you been?

    It appears that Labor is going to struggle in Qld. I believe NSW is not far behind. Although according to some bludgers, the BOF state govt is already on the nose, and that should help in the long run. I hope so. Labor is going to need all the help it can get

  10. [
    Australian aid to Nauru under the Howard government was seen by US diplomats as solely driven by the operation of the offshore asylum seeker processing centre as part of the so-called Pacific Solution.

    Although Australian diplomats were well aware of the Nauru government’s financial and governance failings, US diplomats record them publicly praising Nauru for ”significant progress on financial management, governance and accountability, which can be a ‘best-practice model’ for the region”. ]

    Abbott and Morrison are obviously happy to deal with crooks. That’s their party’s idea of “best practice”.

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/nauru-officials-friendly-payoffs-20110828-1jgnu.html#ixzz1WMwWjLC8

  11. [23
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Monday, August 29, 2011 at 8:13 am | Permalink
    Bootstrap Watch, Episode #9,782…

    Yesterday someone here wrote up a story from the OO where it claimed Glen Stevens had “called on” the Gillard government to abandon its IR laws. The PBer pointed out Stevens had said no such thing.

    Today we have part #2 of the bootstrap. From the front page of the OO on line:

    Unions escalate IR war with RBA

    Sid Maher THE nation’s most senior unionist has lashed RBA governor Glenn Stevens’s call for the Gillard government to review its IR laws.]
    Maher’s a bit of a dill, then, if he’s not round the facts. Or is he being misreported as usual?

  12. [Would you be in favour of or opposed to holding a fresh election to give voters an opportunity to elect a majority Labor or Coalition government?]

    frankly these questions remind me of those dreadful maths problem questions one got in grade 7 that i could not make head not tail out of.

    and if i had got the same questions above i dont think would of understood them

    i would called oh to the phone and he is a wiz at maths and i still dont think he could understand them i have read the question 4 time now and my head hurts imagine other people in the end i say I dont know i give in you tell me
    POLL s william

    it like legal waffle.”

  13. victoria

    I’m good thanks. I have been reading about your daughter and am pleased everything seems to have turned out okay.

    As others have commented before, I struggle to understand the mentality here. We will soon have Campbell Newman because he is anybody but Labor.

    The CM certainly doesn’t help, but it is not as bad as the southern Murdoch papers.

    All being well, I will be joining you down in Victoria next year.

  14. OPT posted this on the previous thread

    [2833
    OzPol Tragic
    Posted Monday, August 29, 2011 at 9:23 am | Permalink
    #Galaxy Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred in QLD: ALP 37 L/NP 63 #auspol

    The frequency and selectivity of these type of polls

    GD … and others worried about Q OpPoll results. Some factors – besides the one we get Groundhog Day’d with monotonous regularity:

    1. Q Election12 – due in the first half of next year, at a date of Premier Bligh’s choosing (also canvassed too often so I won’t add to comments)

    2. State-wide post-traumata stress behaviour

    I’m coping (I hope) as it isn’t the first disaster to damage the house. After the first I did some psych on it; so I can assure you that, after Psychiatrist Elisabeth Kübler-Ross’s 1969 identification of what became known as the “five stages of grief.” there developed a huge canon of literature on it at personal, group and mass level: some “group” with Vietnam War vets, some “mass” after 9/11 & Hurricane Katrina.

    Reactions to catastrophic loss follow a fairly predictable pattern, whether the loss is known in advance (eg terminal degeneration/ disease) or not (accident, damage to property). Though the number of identified stages differ, reactions areconsistent. If you don’t know them Coping with Grief and Loss is a good intro:

    The five stages of grief:
    * Denial: “This can’t be happening to me.”
    * Anger: “Why is this happening? Who is to blame?”
    * Bargaining: “Make this not happen, and in return I will ____.”
    * Depression: “I’m too sad to do anything.”
    *Acceptance: “I’m at peace with what happened.”

    (BTW, knowing what to expect can assist through both personal and wider levels: doesn’t eliminate reactions, but at least you can explain them.)

    Q’s drought-breaking horror began in early March 2010 with massive storms over the southern Great Divide which flooded westward – Barnaby Joyce was trapped on his St George property – and eased only after Easter 2011 when, as some might recall, Toowoomba’s EasterFest was washed out (our soil still hasn’t dried). Areas from the Range westward, across the top of the Darling and Lake Eyre basin, creeks & rivers were inundated – up to 6 times.

    IOW, given the devastation’s length, scale and intensity – and literature of personal and mass loss – expect most QLanders to be living through the grief scales – whether E K-R’s famous 5 or longer more complex scales.

    Some people get trapped in various stages:

    * Q Victoria spent years after HRH Alfred’s death trapped in overwhelming grief; so do many others (you might know some)

    * Some never progress past anger (Vietnam Veterans were frequently trapped at this stage); wanting to blame god, government, other people and places (family members, doctors, places and structures – eg Brisbane’s dams, Greens for stopping Traverston dam etc)

    * Many stay trapped in depression, often because the type of trauma offers no answers; the reason there’s such emphasis now on closure, an essential step to acceptance. Currently, Daniel Morcomb’s Family are moving through closure

    * Acceptance is the true moving on with life stage. Doesn’t mean grief and loss “go away”; they don’t; some never do, but people learn to live with them. In most cases, working through grief & loss takes about a year.

    You should expect Qlanders to be moving through those stages:

    Devastation’s extent and types mean
    (a) those who lost family and/or property not covered by insurance may never recover;
    (b) rebuilding personal property will (say loss assessors) take another 2 years;
    (c) repairs to state infrastructure will take at least as long, even longer;
    (d) impact on the state budget includes cessation of work on planned infrastructure until damage is repaired and finances recover.

    Q elections are won/ lost primarily in heavily-populated, worst-affected SEQ. If that’s line-ball, the next most important are coastal cities – all affected, some badly.

    Before election12, I expect flood recovery to be highlighted, email groups (key in 09) to be ready, L-NP’s opposition to Gillard gov’s flood levy to play a prominent part – and for people to recall how well Bligh managed disasters and recovery.]

  15. One thing to remember in terms of Labor’s polling in NSW is that by the time of the next election they would have had another 2 years of O’Farrell.

    This may yet turn out to be a very large blessing for Labor and, if things in NSW can improve sufficiently then it could negate any Queensland disaster.

  16. victoira two year s to go.

    i seem to remember we alwasy had problems in these state, but as one pb
    said above talk wc and any worker runs a mile

    we shoud encourage the OO to have it front and center of the msm before it goes behind the pay wall, and also encourage every labor mp to not mention it every day as that come boring, but from time to time .
    i dont disbeleive for one minute it would be back along with NO PBS

    now that would be as bad as reducing a pension say 100 dollars a week in most cases-

  17. Dee

    What a remarkably ignorant statement about Queenslanders.

    Actually as a Sydneysider who lived (and loved) Victoria I know where it comes form and may even have made it myself 15 years ago.

    It is however wrong, very wrong. Queenslanders are very far from pig ignorant, rather they just do not react in the same way that Victorian do.

    In terms of actual LABOR values Qld is pretty high up there and always had been.

    However they are less given to “spin” than in the South and tend to be parochial. Also as Pedro pointed out- they are NOT rusted on laborites. I think this goes right back to the DLP split when essentially the DLP Labor government left the Labor party and essentially moved to the Nationals.

    To understand Qld you need to know that the Catholic working class rusted on Labor voters who in NSW (especially) are the “Lindsay labor” voters, are in Qld almost rusted on Nationals because most of the Labor government (Gair was premier) went DLP. To win this group over is a harder task than simply putting up a good union leader from Victoria or NSW.

    Add to this a sense of isolation, a very high proportion of voters in large regional cities, a two speed mining economy you have the reason for the difference.

    Frankly to knock of a local Qld PM and replace with an atheist, Melbourne based, union, women, living with a hairdresser was calculated to lose votes in Qld

    Also remember also that 20-30% are actually refugees from the South.

    Oddly also I have a feeling that comments such as pig ignorant about Qld actually inflames the sense of hostility. In Rudd (and also in Hayden) Qld was delivering labor leaders of whom they were proud and who were very far from the “ignorant” image portrayed by Joh etc.

  18. [Although according to some bludgers, the BOF state govt is already on the nose, and that should help in the long run. I hope so.]

    victoria – it never takes long in NSW for the Libs to be on the nose but the Daily Telegraph is worried so it’s sending a message to BOF today – ‘pull your finger out and do something otherwise you’ll stuff up our agenda to get rid of Federal Labor’.

    If O’Farrell keeps on doing what he has in the past 6 months and if Federal Labor continues to get good legislation passed then the voters could see JG in a different light in NSW. Murdoch media can’t have that happen.

  19. Dio @ 61

    Thomson is no longer receiving a fee for said chairmanship; Fisher continues to receive her fee. The difference is that Thomson has “stood down” from the chairmanship, while Fisher has merely “stood aside”.

    It seems that horizontal movement preserves the perks, while a vertical one eliminates them.

  20. Oh, and the other thing to bear in mind is: MARGINAL SEAT CAMPAIGNING IS EVERYTHING.

    As we learned last year at the SA election, if you can do a good enough job sandbagging your marginal seats then you can hold onto government, even in the face of a massive state-wide swing (and a 48/52 loss on the TPP).

    It might be in Labor’s best interests to pretty much forget about Coalition-held seats (except for marginals) and instead concentrate on holding onto their own seats (particularly the marginals).

  21. [71 victoria
    Posted Monday, August 29, 2011 at 9:31 am | Permalink
    OPT posted this on the previous thread

    2833
    OzPol Tragic
    Posted Monday, August 29, 2011 at 9:23 am | Permalink
    #Galaxy Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred in QLD: ALP 37 L/NP 63 #auspol

    The frequency and selectivity of these type of polls

    GD … and others worried about Q OpPoll results. Some factors – besides the one we get Groundhog Day’d with monotonous regularity:

    1. Q Election12 – due in the first half of next year, at a date of Premier Bligh’s choosing (also canvassed too often so I won’t add to comments)

    2. State-wide post-traumata stress behaviour]

    Victoria, thank you for that, re posting, what it may say are the queenlander blaming
    Anna Bligh for the floods, or are they just too down to be bothered thinking about the future or are they sick of answering silly polsters , becauce or their situation.

    we dont know becauce we didnt lose our home,

    it would be quite interesting to see if this is why the the Victorian labor gov, lost seats where they in the fire areas. any one know

  22. BOF’s mega 50 seat + majority will surely be greatly reduced at the next NSW election, and some of those new Liberal MPs will be “oncers”, particularly those in places like Newcastle/Hunter Valley/Western Sydney.

  23. [All being well, I will be joining you down in Victoria next year.]

    that will be nice gayle , do you feel the cold, though

    havent been to melbourne for some time i think i may go to the next big quilt fesitval when ever that it s it every two years.

  24. No point putting scorn on those people predicting a whitewash in QLD and NSW for the ALP…the poll figures even if out by 10 still paint a devastating election picture.
    While I want my party to win , as I did in NSW, I have to accept what the polling and everyone I speak to , is telling me…..it is pretty near impossible to turn this ship around, given msm and cashed up interest groups constant and continuing love of everything abbott, and so the govt. must stay on track, don’t change leaders, and deliver its policies.
    A great legacy for the future.
    Agree also that we are being set up for an IR double shuffle..murdoch already softening up the sheeple to accept changes (for the good of the nation of course) because that is an achilles heel, for their chosen party in any future election.

  25. Ozy: it also raises the question of whether Fisher has financial problems, maybe having over-extended herself Abbott style. It may be why she needs to keep the extra money coming in.

    Remember that the charge came about because she allegedly tried to pay with credit card(s) a bill that was under $100. It raises the question; why not just EFTPOS from your bank account if your credit card(s) weren’t working or you had forgotten your PIN(s)? Well you would … unless your bank account had much less than $100 in it and you knew it and were trying to avoid additional embarrasment.

  26. The Oz publish a correction for a story by Glen Milne this morning that contained more information on the crap being pushed by Bolt about the PM

    [
    The Australian published today an opinion piece by Glenn Milne which includes assertions about the conduct of the Prime Minister.

    The Australian acknowledges these assertions are untrue. The Australian also acknowledges no attempt was made by any one employed by or associated with The Australian to contact the Prime Minister in relation to this matter.

    The Australian unreservedly apologies to the Prime Minister and to its readers for the publication of these claims
    ]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/correction/story-fn6nj4ny-1226124242214

  27. DL

    If Fisher had no money to pay for the goods, she could have left them at the store and gone to get some money to pay for them.

  28. Danny
    Good thinking re Fisher

    However why would a politician have financial problems. Sadly experience shows that Gambling or drug addiction are the two most likely causes (hers or a family member’s) It will come out in the trial I assume.

  29. madcyril

    Thanks. How convenient. Allow it to be printed, then do an online apology. Smearing is the name of the game. Me thinks.

  30. Victoria: absolutely.

    I know there are allegations that she suffers from a mental illness, but I would also make the point that there are plenty of other people who suffer from the same mental illness who manage to go about their lives without breaking the law.

    The alleged very disproportionate nature of her response to the situation in the store smacks less of mental illness and more of her sense of entitlement.

  31. Bushfire @ 75

    Thanks for the link to Paul Barry. Nothing bludgers would argue with, I don’t think. Worrying that he confirmed the Bolt megaphone as top dog. :sigh:

  32. [The Oz publish a correction for a story by Glen Milne this morning that contained more information on the crap being pushed by Bolt about the PM]

    Thanks. Is there a link to the Milne piece?

  33. my say

    I think the seats Labor lost in Vic were more concerned with transport problems, which Baillieu campaigned on. There were other factors, of course.

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