Galaxy: 63-37 to federal Coalition in Queensland

The Courier-Mail today brings the sequel to yesterday’s 63-37 Galaxy state poll for Queensland, with the same sample also delivering 63-37 on federal voting intention. However, the Coalition’s primary vote lead is higher than in the state poll: 55 per cent to 23 per cent (with the Greens on 12 per cent) compared with 52 per cent to 28 per cent. That this produces the same two-party result is a handy measure of the penalty Labor suffers under the state’s optional preferential voting system, which deprives them of exhausting Greens preferences. This points to a swing from the 2010 election result of 8 per cent, which would neatly leave Kevin Rudd as Labor’s only surviving representative among the state’s complement of 30 House of Representatives seats. Speaking of Kevin Rudd, the poll also has him leading Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader by no less than 62 per cent to 18 per cent.

These apocalyptic figures for Labor sit fairly well with other recent polling. Adding the figures for Queensland from the last two monthly federal Nielsen polls gives a sample of 500, a margin of error a bit under 4.5 per cent, and a two-party preferred result of 66.5-33.5. The discrepancy here fits nicely with the fact that Nielsen has been tracking about two points worse for Labor than other pollsters this year.

The poll was conducted last Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 800, with a margin of error of about 3.5 per cent.

UPDATE: Further from the Courier-Mail:

Almost a year after Ms Gillard secured backing from independents Tony Windsor, Rob Oakeshott and Andrew Wilkie to form a government, 56 per cent of Queensland voters said the minority government was “worse than expected”. This is more than double the 24 per cent who feared the hung Parliament would be worse than expected in a Galaxy poll conducted in late November last year. There is also a growing fear in Queensland electorates about the role of the Greens in the Parliament. Almost two-thirds of voters – and 41 per cent of Labor voters – say the Greens have too much influence on the Government. In a similar poll in February, voters were split over whether the Greens had too much influence … Calls for an early election have increased, with 69 per cent of voters saying they want to elect a majority government. But they also expressed dissatisfaction with both parties, with 60 per cent of Labor supporters and 66 per cent of LNP supporters saying their vote was determined by not wanting to see the other party in power rather than a liking for the candidate.

I would like to see the wording of the question that had 69 per cent of voters “saying they want to elect a majority government”, as it is not immediately clear why it was inferred from this that “calls for an early election have increased”. UPDATE: Gayle in comments reveals all.

UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition’s lead steady at 56-44 from primary votes of 49 per cent for the Coalition (down one), 32 per cent for Labor (steady) and 10 per cent for the Greens (steady). There has basically been no change worth mentioning in the last ten Essential Research polls: Labor’s vote has ranged from 30 per cent to 32 per cent, the Coalition’s from 48 per cent to 50 per cent, the Greens from 10 per cent to 11 per cent, and two-party preferred from 55-45 to 57-43. Also canvassed:

• Opinion on various decisions and policies of the Labor government, which finds only the carbon tax and the Malaysia solution attracting disapproval. Spending on new school buildings, taxing mining companies and stopping live cattle exports all get the thumbs up, though not quite so resoundingly as spending on health services and increasing the aged pension.

• Respondents would favour more (48 per cent) rather than less (22 per cent) spending on new infrastructure and services in the event of a second GFC.

• Forty-four per cent believe the Opposition’s proposal to both abolish the carbon tax and keep the tax cuts it will fund will be good for the economy, against 30 per cent who think it will be bad.

• A question on what the government should do if the economy weakens further provides more evidence that voters like government spending but don’t like taxes. However, cutting interest rates tops the list of desired measures.

• Good news for organisers of anti-government rallies: despite weak attendances, 40 per cent say the rallies represent their views about the government (including 14 per cent of Labor and 10 per cent of Greens voters) against 38 per cent who say they don’t, while a slight majority (38 per cent to 36 per cent) approve of Tony Abbott lending them his support.

• Support for Australian involvement in Afghanistan has weakened still further since March: those who think our troop commitment should be increased is down a point to 4 per cent, kept at the same level is down four to 26 per cent, and complete withdrawal is up eight points to 64 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

12,800 comments on “Galaxy: 63-37 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  1. My guesses…..

    ALP 28
    Liberal/Nats 50
    Greens 13
    Others 9

    TPP 61/39

    The sleaze factor will have cost Labor a couple of points…..not a good look at all…..

  9. [blackburnpseph
    Posted Monday, September 5, 2011 at 9:41 pm | Permalink
    Fredn

    Yesterday you were pro Labor to the point of troll …

    And today you are bagging out Bob Hawke and the Hawke government.
    ..]
    That is the problem with swinging voters they have views that don’t follow either party lines.

    [The effectiveness of Bob Hawke was that he let his able ministers (and the early years of the Hawke government had huge talent) get on with their jobs without too much interference. He provided much of the narrative and the glue. Things got unstuck economically in the early 90s recession but generally you can say it was a success.]

    I will give him that, and I will rank him above Howard, but in my view Keating was the giant, Hawke, well, yes, his strength was he let the talent do things.

  18. [antloewenstein Antony Loewenstein

    Indeed RT @timhollo: When Clive Palmer is to your left, you know you’ve got a serious problem, ALP. #qanda

    Sophie Mirabella – Minister for making up percentages. #qanda
    2 minutes ago]

  20. GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll Primary Votes: ALP 27 (0) L/NP 50 (+3) GRN 12 (-2) #auspol #qanda
    2 minutes ago

    he he he no change, the fightback begins!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  25. DavidWH

    You win the chocolates that was your prediction 😆

    27 Primary Vote for Labor…they are on Par with the German SPD 😀

  28. 12680 BBS
    [The effectiveness of Bob Hawke was that he let his able ministers (and the early years of the Hawke government had huge talent) get on with their jobs without too much interference. He provided much of the narrative and the glue. Things got unstuck economically in the early 90s recession but generally you can say it was a success.]

    I’d agree with that, and suggest that there’s something of a parallel now. Certainly haven’t got the narrative right, but the glue and ministers are fairly good. On balance, less talented than 83 (which was pretty awesome) but quite promising.

    Another parallel which I’m surprised Evan hasn’t noticed is that a Queensland leader got rolled for the current one.

    Another bit of deja vu. Ken Henry, then not the boss, felt they might have headed off a recession with an interventionist approach. He was overruled. When the 2008 GFC hit he was Secretary of the Treasury and pushed very hard for what he want in the early 90s. Rudd’s kitchen cabinet – Rudd, Gillard, Swan and Tanner – was more receptive, and presto! Australia survived better than just about anybody else.

    Ken Henry, since his official retirement, is now on the PM’s advisory staff. If I were the PM, I’d be encouraging him to go over the entire economics of asylum seeker policy. I’ve a feeling a bundle could be saved by dumping offshore detention options, and maybe even ramping up UNHCR-cleared refugees from Malaysia and nearby.

  34. Clive Palmer is more articulate than Sophie Mirabella.

    Surely this causes alarm within the Lib party that such a dunce could find their way onto the coalition front bench?

  36. [Good Lord… Is that the worst rating ever?]

    Remember my post last night: the floor is -50. Shes almost there, another poll or two and she can make it methinks!

    PS: See guys- not as bad as expected (and darn close to my prediction of 58!)

    PPS: Don’t mention Gus prediction of 54.5% please, hes not here

  37. Gillard’s approval rating is lower than the party’s primary vote.
    One for the books.

    The next AC and Neilsen will surely have 6X% – 3X%

  39. [Damn the torpedoes full steam ahead Carey! ]

    On the Good Ship Poll Bludger? 😉

    To use one of the stock response lines, can’t say these results are a surprise. I mean, shocking that a week of blanket media coverage about how terrible the Prime Minister allegedly is and how she’s under threat will lead to her ratings going down. What’s more interesting about the main result is that unless its a typo the primary votes went from the Greens to the Coaltion.

  40. [spur212

    Posted Monday, September 5, 2011 at 10:04 pm | Permalink

    Well at least they haven’t gone down on the primary vote …

    Very inteesting result for the Greens
    ]

    Small l libs siding with Greens returning to Mama.

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