The Courier-Mail today brings the sequel to yesterday’s 63-37 Galaxy state poll for Queensland, with the same sample also delivering 63-37 on federal voting intention. However, the Coalition’s primary vote lead is higher than in the state poll: 55 per cent to 23 per cent (with the Greens on 12 per cent) compared with 52 per cent to 28 per cent. That this produces the same two-party result is a handy measure of the penalty Labor suffers under the state’s optional preferential voting system, which deprives them of exhausting Greens preferences. This points to a swing from the 2010 election result of 8 per cent, which would neatly leave Kevin Rudd as Labor’s only surviving representative among the state’s complement of 30 House of Representatives seats. Speaking of Kevin Rudd, the poll also has him leading Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader by no less than 62 per cent to 18 per cent.
These apocalyptic figures for Labor sit fairly well with other recent polling. Adding the figures for Queensland from the last two monthly federal Nielsen polls gives a sample of 500, a margin of error a bit under 4.5 per cent, and a two-party preferred result of 66.5-33.5. The discrepancy here fits nicely with the fact that Nielsen has been tracking about two points worse for Labor than other pollsters this year.
The poll was conducted last Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 800, with a margin of error of about 3.5 per cent.
UPDATE: Further from the Courier-Mail:
Almost a year after Ms Gillard secured backing from independents Tony Windsor, Rob Oakeshott and Andrew Wilkie to form a government, 56 per cent of Queensland voters said the minority government was “worse than expected”. This is more than double the 24 per cent who feared the hung Parliament would be worse than expected in a Galaxy poll conducted in late November last year. There is also a growing fear in Queensland electorates about the role of the Greens in the Parliament. Almost two-thirds of voters – and 41 per cent of Labor voters – say the Greens have too much influence on the Government. In a similar poll in February, voters were split over whether the Greens had too much influence … Calls for an early election have increased, with 69 per cent of voters saying they want to elect a majority government. But they also expressed dissatisfaction with both parties, with 60 per cent of Labor supporters and 66 per cent of LNP supporters saying their vote was determined by not wanting to see the other party in power rather than a liking for the candidate.
I would like to see the wording of the question that had 69 per cent of voters “saying they want to elect a majority government”, as it is not immediately clear why it was inferred from this that “calls for an early election have increased”. UPDATE: Gayle in comments reveals all.
UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition’s lead steady at 56-44 from primary votes of 49 per cent for the Coalition (down one), 32 per cent for Labor (steady) and 10 per cent for the Greens (steady). There has basically been no change worth mentioning in the last ten Essential Research polls: Labor’s vote has ranged from 30 per cent to 32 per cent, the Coalition’s from 48 per cent to 50 per cent, the Greens from 10 per cent to 11 per cent, and two-party preferred from 55-45 to 57-43. Also canvassed:
• Opinion on various decisions and policies of the Labor government, which finds only the carbon tax and the Malaysia solution attracting disapproval. Spending on new school buildings, taxing mining companies and stopping live cattle exports all get the thumbs up, though not quite so resoundingly as spending on health services and increasing the aged pension.
• Respondents would favour more (48 per cent) rather than less (22 per cent) spending on new infrastructure and services in the event of a second GFC.
• Forty-four per cent believe the Opposition’s proposal to both abolish the carbon tax and keep the tax cuts it will fund will be good for the economy, against 30 per cent who think it will be bad.
• A question on what the government should do if the economy weakens further provides more evidence that voters like government spending but don’t like taxes. However, cutting interest rates tops the list of desired measures.
• Good news for organisers of anti-government rallies: despite weak attendances, 40 per cent say the rallies represent their views about the government (including 14 per cent of Labor and 10 per cent of Greens voters) against 38 per cent who say they don’t, while a slight majority (38 per cent to 36 per cent) approve of Tony Abbott lending them his support.
• Support for Australian involvement in Afghanistan has weakened still further since March: those who think our troop commitment should be increased is down a point to 4 per cent, kept at the same level is down four to 26 per cent, and complete withdrawal is up eight points to 64 per cent.
[I go to the grandkids little athletics when I can.]
Now, that is really worthwhile Ducky.
I have a book somewhere called the musket wars.
No wonder the maori got a treaty.
One new theory is that the West coast of South America was populated, partly from Melanesians and Polynesians. East flow rather than West. Can’t remember the details.
Wol,
Can’t respond because I have NFI what you’re talking about.
I hope the drugs are good.
[Of course my nicknames are all shallow and based how they look.]
CM,
don’t fret it – PB thrives on shallow.
Watching the Afghanistan stuff. Where are the women?
Another hint that Newspoll isn’t what the press hoped.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/asylum_seeker_newspoll/
Results are in and they have not been published. Best we get, news that the government messed up immigration policy.
Virginia Haussegger, Canberran and ABC journo and news reader, went to Afghanistan and did a program about the women. Virginia is really good. Boerwar would be familiar.
Paul Howes vs Clive Palmer: clash of the overblown egos! 🙂
Hmmm…
Looks like Australian death squads and air strikes do kill the odd wrong person. Not surprising, really.
But how many wrong people are shot dead? Who knows? Four Corners now talking about people being displaced from their homes by such deaths.
The generals think they are winning the war by targetted killing of Taliban leaders but other than accruing blood debts, and dishonouring those whose homes are entered without permission, where is the hard evidence?
Time to bugger off methinks. We should never have been there in the first place.
The negotiations have started. The Taliban will be back, power sharing at first, running the place in a few year’s time; our blood wasted and our treasure wasted.
[12425
sisyphus
here’s the link:
[Read more: http://www.news.com.au/money/average-australian-household-23-a-day-better-off/story-e6frfmci-1226050827328#ixzz1X4LmzOLS%5D
Thanks for the link.
It was published in May this year. The stats may be about right in relation to the period covered – 5 years to early 2011.
However, the period 2010-2011, the current period, shows a decline in median real per capita disposable incomes. This coincides with a phase in which debt-service:income ratios have been at historically high levels – higher than during either the 1984 property crunch or the 1991 recession – even on the RBA’s own figures.
Have a look at this:
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2011/09/improving-the-house-price-and-income-debate/
For another take, showing 2-3 years of real disposable income pressure, also have a look at this:
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2011/09/rpdata-on-income/
My point is a simple one – much of the poor polling results recorded by the Government can be attributed to hip-pocket factors.
The article you quote also fails, in my opinion, to corroborate other now-pronounced trends – declines in the growth rate of real retail sales, absolute declines in credit demand, declines in the property market and increases in the number of persons per household (people getting together to save money).
There is just no doubt that household perceptions of their financial standing have deteriorated. This accounts for a very large part of the weak polling by the Government, imo.
Boerwar
[I have a book somewhere called the musket wars.
No wonder the maori got a treaty.]
Indeed. The Maori were armed with a little bit more than sharp fruit and did like a bit of biff.Then again NZ is the seniorAustralasian partner as it got self government before NSW. 🙂
Palmer v Mirabella mud-wrestle!
[What’s the game being played re: Rabbott & the PM?]
Just imagine if JG embraced an Abbott suggestion re AS. He would be up a screaching
that the ALP are hopeless, that they need the Libs to show how policy is made. JG would never be allowed to forget it.
Come into my parlour said the spider to the fly.
TLDB
I am so not very familiar with Virginia.
Evenin’ all!
Prepared for Shana’s gloats? And Glen’s, and Evan’s?
I am just praying that JG does NOT even entertain any joint enterprise with the Evil Monk.
While I agreed with the deterrent strategy of a Regional Solution …. shaking hands with the devil will only ensure you catch a dreadful disease. Plus, he’ll make out our poor weak FEMALE PM needed a Man’s man to prop her up!
At the best for Labor, Newspoll will be 56-44
At worst, it’ll be 61-39.
A 2PP vote of 43 or 44% would be considered a good figure for Gillard and the government, after the bad week they’ve had.
I wonder if Newspoll polled Gillard vs Rudd again?
sisyphus,
Julia would have one hand on his nethers.
[Finnigans, as for me – I eat whale…]
wal, in malay: buat saya, i makan ikan bilis, enak pan?
[Come into my parlour said the spider to the fly.]
do budgie smugglers come with a fly?
Boerwar,
ABC1 TV news 7PM.
[Come into my parlour said the spider to the fly.]
And the fly said “Get stuffed!”
[I am just praying that JG does NOT even entertain any joint enterprise with the Evil Monk.
While I agreed with the deterrent strategy of a Regional Solution …. shaking hands with the devil will only ensure you catch a dreadful disease. Plus, he’ll make out our poor weak FEMALE PM needed a Man’s man to prop her up! ]
Yeah, compromise with Abbott on this issue would truly suck. I’m just glad she doesn’t have Obama’s ‘negotiation’ style of giving everything up to conservatives for almost nothing in return.
[At the best for Labor, Newspoll will be 56-44
At worst, it’ll be 61-39.
A 2PP vote of 43 or 44% would be considered a good figure for Gillard and the government, after the bad week they’ve had.
I wonder if Newspoll polled Gillard vs Rudd again?]
Either way you slice it. Bad news for Labor and Ms Gillard.
But it will be popcorn worthy listening to how the poll results are spun on PB by the left 😀
[Prepared for Shana’s gloats? And Glen’s, and Evan’s?]
Just as I was when Labor were 60/40 ahead 🙂
Ahh full circle 🙂
But I don’t gloat it is more a reflection on Labor than it is of any good things the LNP has done that’s for sure.
TLBD
I know about the TV news. I still deny being very familiar with Virginia. In my case, I don’t think she would appreciate it.
Ducky,
[Julia would have one hand on his nethers.]
A sort of danse macabre?
If the Newspoll Lib 2PP doesn’t start with a six, I’m predicting this round of leadership speculation will die down.
If it starts with a six, it will continue until either a fortnightly Newspoll starts with a 5 or Gillard goes.
[http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/asylum_seeker_newspoll/]
Had to laugh at this comment:
12% ? I did not realize Ms. Gillard had such a big family. 😀
fredn
Limited News Newspoll will be released for maximum impact.
The fact that we are only getting dribbles is no longer a guide to the polling result.
[If it starts with a six, it will continue until either a fortnightly Newspoll starts with a 5 or Gillard goes.]
If only Rudd was given until a 6 eh Diogs?
Abbott made his offer of ‘bipartisanship’ to do two things: beat Labor to the punch on amending the Migration Act (and in the process look like a leader), and to run interference on a chance for Gillard to look Prime Ministerial by meeting a visiting dignitary.
Boerwar,
She speaks warmly about you.
[But I don’t gloat it is more a reflection on Labor than it is of any good things the LNP has done that’s for sure. ]
I still think that could be a problem for the LNP in future. I know that sounds nuts when they’re so far ahead in the polls, but besides an election being way off I imagine a fairly large amount of their vote is people who believe (or some have been conned into believing) that Labor/Gillard are terrible. Ease their concerns and there’s every chance some of them will come back.
However, 56-44 still would mean in electoral terms a Liberal mega landslide, but things for Labor are so dire right now that Gillard and her colleagues would be almost dancing in the streets if they’re only 12 points behind. 😀
The generals are already doing Afghanistan War defeat spin management.
‘We are winning.’
‘We were winning until the surge troops were withdrawn.’
[ Come into my parlour said the spider to the fly.
do budgie smugglers come with a fly?]
And has his genitals got 8 hairy legs?
[Abbott made his offer of ‘bipartisanship’ to do two things: beat Labor to the punch on amending the Migration Act (and in the process look like a leader), and to run interference on a chance for Gillard to look Prime Ministerial by meeting a visiting dignitary. ]
He’s helped in that last part by it being barely reported. Nothing about it on at least one of the commercial 6pm news programs.
[A sort of danse macabre?]
Tone does the skeleton bit.
[Diogenes
Posted Monday, September 5, 2011 at 9:05 pm | Permalink
If the Newspoll Lib 2PP doesn’t start with a six, I’m predicting this round of leadership speculation will die down.
If it starts with a six, it will continue until either a fortnightly Newspoll starts with a 5 or Gillard goes.]
And I bet it starts with a five and the Australian Doesn’t lik eit.
TLBD
I’m taken.
rishane…
I see the poll results as one thing and one thing only….
People aren’t supporting the LNP they’re voicing their opposition to Labor.
But as you said it could wash as soft support that 2 years could degrade or it is proving that Oppositions don’t win elections Governments lose them….
Jen
[I am just praying that JG does NOT even entertain any joint enterprise with the Evil Monk.
While I agreed with the deterrent strategy of a Regional Solution …. shaking hands with the devil will only ensure you catch a dreadful disease. Plus, he’ll make out our poor weak FEMALE PM needed a Man’s man to prop her up!]
You won’t hear the Rabbott admit that his Pacific Solution is stuffed. The HC decision was a double whammy. Now, the Rabbott seeks to exploit his misfortune at the PM’s expense.
Boerwar,
You’ve been taken for what?
@TLM/@GS,
I notice you two post the usual suspecting lines, which isn’t very unsurprising, nor is the numbers that your egotistically gloating about either.
Glen: Abbott doesn’t have to do anything right now, except repeat his Nauru mantra, but there’ll come a time when even the MSM start holding him to account over policy.
I know that’s the cherished hope of ALP stalwarts, that under media scrutiny, Phoney will spontaneously self-combust – we’ll wait and see if that occurs.
Needless to say, Abbott isn’t the one whose leadership is under threat.
A Breaker Morant story on 4 corners right now. You know. Unarmed prisoner. Shot dead.
The thing that gives me a little bit of hope as far as Gillard is concerned is that the only real issues seem to be the carbon tax and asylum seekers.
Everything else this government has proposed and implemented has strong support.
Lets hope that once the carbon tax has been resolved, the government can start getting some fresh air and more scrutiny will be applied to the Coalition and their “Abolish the Australian economy” policies.
TLBD
OH reckons V had better not try a move.
rishane:
Her meeting the EC got a run on ABC news, but it was overshadowed by the Abbott stuff.
[Thornleigh Labor Man
Posted Monday, September 5, 2011 at 9:07 pm | Permalink
However, 56-44 still would mean in electoral terms a Liberal mega landslide, but things for Labor are so dire right now that Gillard and her colleagues would be almost dancing in the streets if they’re only 12 points behind. ]
Or if 6% move from liberal and vote labor, the labor party wins.
We have just seen the fridge and the kitchen sink thrown a Gillard, if that doesn’t work, what next.