Galaxy: 63-37 to federal Coalition in Queensland

The Courier-Mail today brings the sequel to yesterday’s 63-37 Galaxy state poll for Queensland, with the same sample also delivering 63-37 on federal voting intention. However, the Coalition’s primary vote lead is higher than in the state poll: 55 per cent to 23 per cent (with the Greens on 12 per cent) compared with 52 per cent to 28 per cent. That this produces the same two-party result is a handy measure of the penalty Labor suffers under the state’s optional preferential voting system, which deprives them of exhausting Greens preferences. This points to a swing from the 2010 election result of 8 per cent, which would neatly leave Kevin Rudd as Labor’s only surviving representative among the state’s complement of 30 House of Representatives seats. Speaking of Kevin Rudd, the poll also has him leading Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader by no less than 62 per cent to 18 per cent.

These apocalyptic figures for Labor sit fairly well with other recent polling. Adding the figures for Queensland from the last two monthly federal Nielsen polls gives a sample of 500, a margin of error a bit under 4.5 per cent, and a two-party preferred result of 66.5-33.5. The discrepancy here fits nicely with the fact that Nielsen has been tracking about two points worse for Labor than other pollsters this year.

The poll was conducted last Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 800, with a margin of error of about 3.5 per cent.

UPDATE: Further from the Courier-Mail:

Almost a year after Ms Gillard secured backing from independents Tony Windsor, Rob Oakeshott and Andrew Wilkie to form a government, 56 per cent of Queensland voters said the minority government was “worse than expected”. This is more than double the 24 per cent who feared the hung Parliament would be worse than expected in a Galaxy poll conducted in late November last year. There is also a growing fear in Queensland electorates about the role of the Greens in the Parliament. Almost two-thirds of voters – and 41 per cent of Labor voters – say the Greens have too much influence on the Government. In a similar poll in February, voters were split over whether the Greens had too much influence … Calls for an early election have increased, with 69 per cent of voters saying they want to elect a majority government. But they also expressed dissatisfaction with both parties, with 60 per cent of Labor supporters and 66 per cent of LNP supporters saying their vote was determined by not wanting to see the other party in power rather than a liking for the candidate.

I would like to see the wording of the question that had 69 per cent of voters “saying they want to elect a majority government”, as it is not immediately clear why it was inferred from this that “calls for an early election have increased”. UPDATE: Gayle in comments reveals all.

UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition’s lead steady at 56-44 from primary votes of 49 per cent for the Coalition (down one), 32 per cent for Labor (steady) and 10 per cent for the Greens (steady). There has basically been no change worth mentioning in the last ten Essential Research polls: Labor’s vote has ranged from 30 per cent to 32 per cent, the Coalition’s from 48 per cent to 50 per cent, the Greens from 10 per cent to 11 per cent, and two-party preferred from 55-45 to 57-43. Also canvassed:

• Opinion on various decisions and policies of the Labor government, which finds only the carbon tax and the Malaysia solution attracting disapproval. Spending on new school buildings, taxing mining companies and stopping live cattle exports all get the thumbs up, though not quite so resoundingly as spending on health services and increasing the aged pension.

• Respondents would favour more (48 per cent) rather than less (22 per cent) spending on new infrastructure and services in the event of a second GFC.

• Forty-four per cent believe the Opposition’s proposal to both abolish the carbon tax and keep the tax cuts it will fund will be good for the economy, against 30 per cent who think it will be bad.

• A question on what the government should do if the economy weakens further provides more evidence that voters like government spending but don’t like taxes. However, cutting interest rates tops the list of desired measures.

• Good news for organisers of anti-government rallies: despite weak attendances, 40 per cent say the rallies represent their views about the government (including 14 per cent of Labor and 10 per cent of Greens voters) against 38 per cent who say they don’t, while a slight majority (38 per cent to 36 per cent) approve of Tony Abbott lending them his support.

• Support for Australian involvement in Afghanistan has weakened still further since March: those who think our troop commitment should be increased is down a point to 4 per cent, kept at the same level is down four to 26 per cent, and complete withdrawal is up eight points to 64 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

12,800 comments on “Galaxy: 63-37 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  2. IMHO, it makes tactical sense for the Tories to run a separate Scottish Tory Party.

    The Scottish Labour Party has been scamming nationalist votes for yonks.

  3. you are all underestimating the motivation that keeping your seat has- if they have to eat shite they’ll eat shite, support Rudd, they will do so.

  4. [12492

    Thornleigh Labor Man

    Posted Monday, September 5, 2011 at 8:28 pm | Permalink

    According to ABC News, senior ministers are predicting a primary vote for Labor of 25% or less.
    ]
    and Richo has spoken – utter bullshit.

  9. Boerwar

    [I have had a bit of theory that Polynesians were big physically because club fighting required big men and that successful club fighters tended to do the Alpha male thing and parent more children]

    It comes down to natural selection. On those long and amazing oceanic voyages those with greater body mass, epecially muscle,apparently had an advantage for surviving. A down side is that it also favoured metabolisms that more efficiently hoovered up calories. Also culturally being of “generous proportion”‘ was considered a sign of being of a superior nature. After all ye cannae get fat without being pretty damn good at food supply.

  11. [Thornleigh Labor Man

    Posted Monday, September 5, 2011 at 8:32 pm | Permalink

    Frank, or is it Nick Minchin – I’m quoting Mark Simpkin on the ABC News tonight.
    ]
    richo,

    Simopkin ain’t a friend of Labor.

  12. This particular thread has been going on for so long that I have lost track. Is the Essential poll mentioned in the heading from last weekend or from the previous weekend?

  14. [Can we please desist from this “+1″ business.]

    I thought it was a simple way of saying “I agree with you”, although I have never used it myself.

  18. Oh yes, you can assimilate me, and you can go to the market to buy me, and you can dice my radio, but you on’t change the way I take part in a government conspiracy to conceal the truth about Dorothy the Dinosaur.

  19. [This particular thread has been going on for so long that I have lost track. Is the Essential poll mentioned in the heading from last weekend or from the previous weekend?]

    I wondered that myself, although don’t think Afghanistan was polled this week in Essential.

  21. Diogs,

    I reckon Brandis is going to be collateral damage in the near future.

    Last week he cocked up the Thomson response by trying to influence Ministers and over reaching with his learned opinions. This week he shot off his mouth far to early re the AS HC decision by saying the Nauru option was still live before the full and proper consideration of the Solicitor General said “No it’s not”.

    Gillard demanding Abbott be fair dinkum by spelling out his exact position inadvance is a master stroke of negotiation. Tony won’t know whether to weather vane, speak the gospel truth or just write it down.

    Of course the Greens may, as usual throw all morality ou the window by trying to engineer the Nauru solution just to spite the Government. But, even that would be a win for Gillard because the Libs would be seen as cosying up to the very Group they have been railing against for years.

  23. What I got from Tony Abbott’s presser, the little I saw of it, is that he sees himself behind the eight-ball. No slurs, just, veery careful.

  27. [What I got from Tony Abbott’s presser, the little I saw of it, is that he sees himself behind the eight-ball. No slurs, just, veery careful.]

    Is this a palm tree which I see before me, the soup spoon toward my feather boa? Come, let me scare people with thee.

  30. @Boerwar
    [I mean to say, all very nice for someone who is a nice person to run fast over some hurdles but are there not more worthwhile and significant things in life?]

    I lost interest in elite sport during the Sydney Olympics when the front page of The Age revealed the cost to taxpayers of a gold medal win. Underneath that article was one about a Melbourne scientist who was unable to access about $75,000 to continue his research (can’t remember details but worthwhile stuff).
    [http://www.crikey.com.au/2008/08/08/40-million-its-how-much-each-gold-medal-costs-us/]

  45. [Boas are titillation. Porn is the whole emu.]

    Early to think the sun shines out of fountains, early to kill people with arch-enemies, makes a man puerile, photogenic and salacious.

  49. Boerwar

    [poroti
    Makes sense to me. What about the club fighting theory? BS?]
    Polynesians were far more sophsticated than mere clubs. Check out this demo of the Maori taiaha.Especially from the 5 min mark where they get down to brass tacks.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Tb5ug5fXqE

    That said the Maori adopted modern weapons from the beginning of the 19th century. Hence my earlier link to the battle of Gate Pa. Where a vastly outnumbered Maori force defeated a British Australian force. It was noted that the intensity of the artilliery barrage was never matched until WWI and the trench complex also never matched until WWI. It was musket + sword vs shotgun + tomahawk.

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