Essential Research: 53-47 to Coalition

Crikey reports the latest Essential Research poll has the Coalition lead at 53-47, up from 52-48 last week – which managing director Peter Lewis indicated Labor was lucky to get to because of rounding. On the primary vote, Labor is down two points to 34 per cent, with the Coalition and the Greens up a point each to 47 per cent and 12 per cent. I should have the full report shortly, but in the meantime Bernard Keane of Crikey summarises the other findings thus:

Voters strongly support Labor’s moves to trim middle-class welfare, according to today’s Essential Report.

Fifty-two per cent of voters back Wayne Swan’s budget night measure to continue the pause in indexation of the thresholds at which family payments are phased out, to 28% who oppose them. Even Liberal voters back them, 47-38%. Voters were strongly of the view that households earning more than $150,000 a year don’t need family payments — 67% of voters agreed with that, and only 27% disagreed.

Only 35% agreed that all taxpayers should be eligible for some form of payment, regardless of income, compared to 57% disagreeing. However, most voters distinguished between family payments and welfare, with 61% agreeing that family payments to middle-income earners were different to welfare payments to low income earners (we’ll discuss Essential’s results on views toward middle class welfare in more detail tomorrow).

There has also been a further rise in support for the Government’s plan to impose a price on carbon. After reaching the nadir of support at the end of March, when support was just 34% and opposition 51%, support grew in April and last week was at 41% support and 44% opposition, with Greens voters now strongly in favour of it after initially being lukewarm.

The poll also revealed a quite remarkable ignorance of one of the government’s key reforms, its scheduled increase in the compulsory superannuation rate to 12%. Around 53% of voters said they had not heard of the proposal and a further 27% saying they had heard little — a damning indictment of Labor’s efforts to sell what began as a key part of its mining tax package, particularly given there was strong support for the proposal across voters of different stripes.

UPDATE: Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

8,354 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  3. Mr Mar’n Ferguson up to answer a Dot Dixer. Does ‘own goal’ attack on Mr Barnett’s decision to up mining taxes by $2 billion.

  6. Mr Ferguson making a nice distinction between the MRT being about super profits while Mr Barnett’s royalties will apply regardless of profit, or loss.

  7. [Otiose
    Posted Monday, May 23, 2011 at 3:15 pm | Permalink

    david

    i assume they need to ask topical q’s of the responsible minister]

    Thanks Otiose…seems a waste of talent and firepower, but I follow your reasoning.

  8. [Joffaboy

    I don’t find that funny.]

    Oh well – can’t please all of the punters all of the time.

    I am sorry I mixed up Rudds QT answer with his Q&A answer 🙂

  13. Like the argument that Barnett’s royalties grab will affect *all* profits, whereas the MRRT will only impact super profits.

  15. Set your videos for this one:
    [leighsales Leigh Sales
    Tonight Political Editor @cuhlmann talks to Barnaby Joyce. Plus Paul Lockyer reports on Murray Darling reform. #abc730.]

  16. Mr Macfarlane reminded by Ms Gillard just why Mr Macfarlane’s heart was not in his question.

    How sadment.

  17. [Mr Macfarlane reminded by Ms Gillard just why Mr Macfarlane’s heart was not in his question.

    How sadment.]

    🙂

  18. [you put the game fees up what a silly question
    our son plays hockey and they dont only pay fees now they have to pay to go in to the ground.

    so thats life, does he expect the gov to pay for everything.]

    Of course he does, he is an Agrarian Socialist.

  19. DG

    [leighsales Leigh Sales
    Tonight Political Editor @cuhlmann talks to Barnaby Joyce. Plus Paul Lockyer reports on Murray Darling reform. #abc730.]

    Soooo, Mr Uhlman and Mr Joyce are going to take it in turns to interrupt each other? Should be a cracker.

  24. Apparently elec prices are higher where state govt owns the businesses, such as NSW & Qld. This says a lot about why Tone and the Qld Oppn can make easy scare points. Less so in Vic, SA.

  31. [Mr Rudd gets a dot dixer on his favourite topic: the land of the rat f**kers]

    To speak Chinese is not to know the ratf**kers apparently.

  32. Cf Newcastle stuff ups.

    Dot Dixer to Bowen gets it out on Govt terms but yet another opportunity for the Opposition to harrass the Government on asylum seekers. Yet again, private sector providers stuff things up.

    It is time that the Government insourced service provision. There are far too many shonks in the private sector so beloved of Mr Abbott and ‘The Australian’.

  40. POLLYTICS | 2 minutes ago
    [This wider inquiry into the provision of refugee services will have just caused a lot of people to shit themselves, one would imagine #qt]

  45. [This wider inquiry into the provision of refugee services will have just caused a lot of people to shit themselves, one would imagine #qt
    ]

    would you please explain that to me victoria

  46. Reading the last few pages of the previous thread a little earlier and saw all the wonderful posts by OzPol Bemused daretoread and I am sure another re the Whitlam Dismissal.

    What wonderful memories they all evoked! Thanks all!

  47. Mr Robb finishes speaking to his amendment. The question about to be put. All very exciting but it does not look like an MPI.

  48. BENFORDHAM | 15 minutes ago
    [Any questions for Independent MP Rob Oakeshott ? I’m interviewing him on 2GB.COM at 4:30pm. #]

  49. TSOP – love is a strange thing.

    But the Punch is the kind of bloke for whom the question would not be “should I lick Rupert’s shoes, but should I lick to the left, lick to the right and then lick to the left again.”

    Hopefully (hands now clasped together) the NSW Greens will maintain their complaint to ACMA about the Punch’s lie that Greens preferenced Pauline Hanson in NSW and (really clapsed now) ACMA find against the Punch and throw him to the floor etc

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