Essential Research: 53-47 to Coalition

Crikey reports the latest Essential Research poll has the Coalition lead at 53-47, up from 52-48 last week – which managing director Peter Lewis indicated Labor was lucky to get to because of rounding. On the primary vote, Labor is down two points to 34 per cent, with the Coalition and the Greens up a point each to 47 per cent and 12 per cent. I should have the full report shortly, but in the meantime Bernard Keane of Crikey summarises the other findings thus:

Voters strongly support Labor’s moves to trim middle-class welfare, according to today’s Essential Report.

Fifty-two per cent of voters back Wayne Swan’s budget night measure to continue the pause in indexation of the thresholds at which family payments are phased out, to 28% who oppose them. Even Liberal voters back them, 47-38%. Voters were strongly of the view that households earning more than $150,000 a year don’t need family payments — 67% of voters agreed with that, and only 27% disagreed.

Only 35% agreed that all taxpayers should be eligible for some form of payment, regardless of income, compared to 57% disagreeing. However, most voters distinguished between family payments and welfare, with 61% agreeing that family payments to middle-income earners were different to welfare payments to low income earners (we’ll discuss Essential’s results on views toward middle class welfare in more detail tomorrow).

There has also been a further rise in support for the Government’s plan to impose a price on carbon. After reaching the nadir of support at the end of March, when support was just 34% and opposition 51%, support grew in April and last week was at 41% support and 44% opposition, with Greens voters now strongly in favour of it after initially being lukewarm.

The poll also revealed a quite remarkable ignorance of one of the government’s key reforms, its scheduled increase in the compulsory superannuation rate to 12%. Around 53% of voters said they had not heard of the proposal and a further 27% saying they had heard little — a damning indictment of Labor’s efforts to sell what began as a key part of its mining tax package, particularly given there was strong support for the proposal across voters of different stripes.

UPDATE: Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

8,354 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  3. Jesus, Ruddy firing up so well here, and refering favourably to the PM as well. Fantastic stuff from him.

    Spirited and direct.

  6. ALP side is pretty shouty today and very much not saying what the Oopo would like them to.

    Are they trying to goad the Oopo to get more of them thrown out??

    I wonder if they have a points system in cabinet where you get a prize for the number of Oopo members tossed while you are speaking??

  8. Only a dingdong MPI is going to lift the Opposition out of a loss for the day. And they will get as good as they give in an MPI on AGW or on asylum seekers.

    Just checked. The sky is still there, albeit cloudy and bits of rain are falling therefrom.

  9. [(1) is 34% ALP’s lowest ever first preference figure for Essential?]

    Yes, I believe it is. Conversely, 12 per cent is the Greens’ best result at least since the election.

  11. Uh-oh “spreading oppachewniddee” is the new catchphrase. Why can’t she say the ‘t’ before the ‘ee’ sound at the ends of words?

  18. When will the Opposition start doing deck chairs? Has to come, sooner or later.

    Today’s QT drives it home.

  19. My say asked at 141:

    was there anything in the ess poll about the malaysian policy?

    Not this week.

    Last week it was a 40%:40% draw (19% did not know) for Malaysia and Manus but disapproval flashed up to 60% if Malayasia/Manus costs more than processing people here.

    At the NSW Asylum Seekers Centre trivia night at North Sydney League’s club last Friday approval:disapproval was 0:350.

  20. Mr Jenkins giving Mr Hunt a mild ticking off; genial school-masterly sort of approach to this one.

    Ms Gillard reminds the House of Mr Cameron’s activities.

  25. *laughs*

    Ms Gillard, ‘If the members of the Opposition find my suggestion that they be honest is offensive, I withdraw it.’

  26. Good one Julia;HaHaHa.

    If the opposition find it offensive that I say they should be honest, i will withdraw.

  27. [BernardKeane | 1 minute ago
    Oooh, class act from an unidentified male Coalition backbencher to mimic Jenny Macklin. Who said the age of Parliamentary wit was dead?]

    Don’t know what this refers to.

  30. thanks shell bell
    i suppose a trivia night that would be normal of course,

    but amazed me as if the cost. ect. australians cannot have it both ways
    how sickening putting money in the equation all the time

  31. Thanks William re Essential.

    There is maybe a hint of a trendline between the 1%- 2% shift from ALP to Green and the majority disapproval of questions about welfare recipents at the lower end of the socio-economic scale these being:

    ” (1) Welfare payments should be reduced for those who have been on them long term.

    “(2) Welfare and family payments should be lower to encourage people to be more self-reliant and not rely so much on the Government.”

  36. [I missed Rudd’s response. Can anyone give a quick summary?]

    Something along the lines of “I should be PM”, “I leaked all the Cabinet Stuff during the campaign”, “Gillard and I hate each others guts”.

    Just about covers it.

  37. victoria
    He summarised the shocking regional relations the Opposition had with SEA when it was last a Government. Then he summarized the progress that had been made in relation to regional agreements in SEA under Labor. He graciously, by way of gesture, included Ms Gillard in the triumph of Labor in SEA regional approaches.

  38. [I missed Rudd’s response. Can anyone give a quick summary?]

    Victoria: fire and brimstone (equal portions) mixed with arsenic, bottled, lit, and thrown across the benches

    😉

  39. I require guidance…Why do not more of the Dorothy Dix questions go to some of the better performing Ministers? Swanee gets his share from the Opposition, plus 2 or 3 from the Govt side each QT. Not enough from the likes of Roxon, Rudd, Albo, Burke etc they do not play to their strengths at times.

  44. tsop

    thats not funny now yo have confused victoria

    no it wasnt like that at all her refered to children over board,

  45. Member for Cowper not happy with being told about Government investment in sports infrastructure when he asked about electricity compensation.

    Mr Jenkins sits him down.

  50. you put the game fees up what a silly question
    our son plays hockey and they dont only pay fees now they have to pay to go in to the ground.

    so thats life, does he expect the gov to pay for everything.

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