The Courier-Mail informs us that the Galaxy poll from Queensland published on Saturday also canvassed state voting intention, with results very similar to those of last week’s Newspoll: primary votes of 30 per cent for Labor and 52 per cent for the Liberal National Party, with the later opening up a huge lead of 61-39 on two-party preferred. The shift comes off a higher base than Newspoll: even at the peak of Anna Bligh’s flood-and-cyclone poll spike, Galaxy had the LNP leading 55-45. The poll offers much further detail on perceptions of the best party to handle various issue areas, and these as always are shown to be chasing the tail of the voting intention figures, with the LNP well ahead on every measure. Hopefully we’ll get more detail from the print edition. As usual with Galaxy, the sample was 800 and the margin of error about 3.5 per cent. Hat tip to the always hat-tippable GhostWhoVotes.
This pretty much confirms that the Nespoll was not a rogue, which is a disastrously bad result for Labor. What has happened to change things so fast? Things might improve if the reconstruction goes well, but defeat now seems inevitable to me.
Socrates
I do not think anythingactually change. The QLD ALP has gone very poorly since the election. Bligh’s lie after the election re excise, destroyed ALP support. The polls had been going south ever since. (sound familiar?)
The flood allowed Bligh to become more popular, as most of QLDers gave her credit during the disaster. Now that running the state and not disaster is again the main priority of the electorate, that bounce is gone.
dovif
Thanks I don’t follow Qld politics that closely and had not understood about the excise.
The dramatic change, or rogue poll appears to have been the polling that came out in the aftermath of the flood crisis.
The Bligh government is terminal for the following reasons;
1/ asset sales have deeply offended their rusted on supports,
2/ petrol excise has offended the swinging voters,
3/ Peter Beattie’s do nothing offend noone style has left Bligh with an awful mess,
4/the its time factor all longterm governments build up resentment and
5/Campbell Newman is currently providing the colour an movement the MSM craves.
That both the state and federal ALP governments are perceived so badly in Queensland indicates that deep forces are at work.
Is society up there so different from the rest of Australia?
Is the Queensland media even more toxic to Labor?
Toorak
The Bligh government has been on the nose since it went to an early election in 2009 – and then within weeks unleashed a whole series of unpopular measures (as detailed by WhyWorry) . It is also a government that is getting long in the tooth – except for the 2 year Borbidge interlude – Labor have been in office in Qld since 1989 – 23 years by the time next election roles around next year. What is interesting to speculate is whether the Bligh Governments unpopularity is pushing federal Labor down in Qld or whether they are both in deep opinion poll do-do of their own individual makings.
A good result for the ALP in Qld is to win around half the seats, if the current polling continues it is possible they could finish with 0 after the next election.
Nobody has picked up on David Hinchcliffe’s interview on Friday night, where he fingers Beattie for creating the Campbell Newman problem.
Why Worry
Labor still won 11 in 1974 on a 61-39 split (albeit with compulsory preferencing). Zero is drawing a very long bow.
blackburnpseph
I meant say Federal seats.
On the current polling maybe Kevin Rudd, although he obviously hasn’t worked the local electorate as hard as in the past, and maybe Shane Neuman, but hard to see any of the others surviving, the current numbers are worse than 1996.
Why Worry
Qld federally in 1975 was 60-40 to the coalition – Labor held only one seat (Oxley held by Bill Hayden by 3.8%) and just lost Capricornia by a handful of votes. The 2 seats held in 1996 were complicated by Pauline Hanson’s first round of antics – so about 3 would be on the money.
I tend to think that immgration is a really volaitle issue for this state. In 1998 One Nation picked up 22% of the vote in the state election. So that can’t be discounted, plus Queensland has lot of seats in rural and regional areas which traditionally don’t vote Labor. But another factor could also be that QLD likes to vote one party in state governement and a different party federally. Maybe with Labor losing state government that might upset the balance? Right now not a good look for labor federally, QLD can’t be ingored there are 30 seats into play. States like WA you can get away with it to some extent, Labor won 2007 federal election in a landslide but still only won 4 seats out of the 15 seats in WA. If you do bad in any of the Eastern States you lose government.
Can anyone here answer this question, without resorting to biased rhetoric (eg. “they’re all far right loonies!”): would it be more accurate to describe Newman as a moderate or a Right/Conservative LNPer?
It is interesting to me as to why Newman has been preselected for the seat of Ashgrove where he needs somewhere roud 7% swing to gain the seat.
Is Newman a born again?
Ashgrove area is a hot bed of born agains, especially The Gap area, where from the late 60s early 70s, unless you were a part of the born again enclave you could not purchase a block of land and build a house there.
Does anyone know if he is a born again?
Why worry at 7
“A good result for the ALP in Qld is to win around half the seats.”
Because when you win 1/2 the seat + 1 you have government? 🙂
Unless you are Gillard
Gaffhook
Ashgrove is part of the City of Brisbane Council, where Newman is mayor, If he cannot get a 7% swing in the state, he won’t be premier anyway
No idea if he is a born again, but this has not stopped the people of Ashgrove from voting him as Brisbane lord Mayor
Dovif, my comment about a good result for labor in Qld is to win around half the seats was intended to be in reference to federal elections. In 2007 the ALP had a ‘good’ result in Qld, wining what was it 16 out of 29 seats, that result being slightly inflated due to Rudd being a Ql;der? only to lose how many at the 2010 election? My point is that federally Qld has always been tough, maybe not as tough as WA, but tough all the same.
[Unless you are Gillard]
Because minority governments have never existed in any parliamentary system prior to August 2010.
can anyone tell us the booth results for Ashgrove at the last BCC election?
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/brisbane/2008/
The Ashgrove electorate mainly contains the Ward of Enoggera and The Gap
Enoggera is a marginal at the Council Election, won by the Liberals with 50.8%2PP of the vote. The Gap is safe Liberal 68%
[Enoggera is a marginal at the Council Election, won by the Liberals with 50.8%2PP of the vote. The Gap is safe Liberal 68%]
I don’t know the date of the council elections.
The LNP may have won the council elections but they are not the State elections.
In the State elections Kate Jones won every booth in the seat of Ashgrove.
She must be a reasonably high profile in the area to have done that so mr Newman will certainly have his work cut out for him.
It would not be the first time that a Brisbane Lord Mayor came a gutser at a State election and Sally Anne Atkinson springs to mind.
Gaffhook
Except Newman is the popular party leader and the polls are predicting a 13% swing against the ALP atm, which means Kate Jones would have to come from a long way behind.
Add to the fact that Ashgrove did not swing as much to the LNP in the last election, which might led to a bigger correction
The Ashgrove/Enoggerra BCC results are interesting, but they are of course a pointless indicator of how the next state election might go, the variables are all different.
If Kate Jones, holds her nerve and campaigns hard, there is no reason why she can’t hold on, unless of course the ‘swing’ is on. I remember before the 2007 federal election the 7.30 report went into Eden-Monaro, and almost everyone they spoke to held their sitting member in high regard, Gary Nairn(?), but they almost all said that its a shame we have to vote him out to get rid of Howard, a similar phenomena could destroy Kate Jone’s political career.
Gaffhook 20
Sally Anne Atkinson ran in Rankin in 1993 election, an electorate that contained Inala and other hard core ALP areas. Hard to compare Ashgrove to the 1993 version of Rankin. The success of Beattie was his destruction of the Liberal party as a credible alternative in Brisbane, if under Can do, the LNP are seen as credible to the people of Brisbane, a lot of supposedly safe ALP seats will swing.
Campbell Newman is being a full-time party social animal and the Brisbane Chinese business community are being seduced.