Crikey reports the latest Essential Research poll has the Coalition lead at 53-47, up from 52-48 last week – which managing director Peter Lewis indicated Labor was lucky to get to because of rounding. On the primary vote, Labor is down two points to 34 per cent, with the Coalition and the Greens up a point each to 47 per cent and 12 per cent. I should have the full report shortly, but in the meantime Bernard Keane of Crikey summarises the other findings thus:
Voters strongly support Labor’s moves to trim middle-class welfare, according to today’s Essential Report.
Fifty-two per cent of voters back Wayne Swan’s budget night measure to continue the pause in indexation of the thresholds at which family payments are phased out, to 28% who oppose them. Even Liberal voters back them, 47-38%. Voters were strongly of the view that households earning more than $150,000 a year don’t need family payments — 67% of voters agreed with that, and only 27% disagreed.
Only 35% agreed that all taxpayers should be eligible for some form of payment, regardless of income, compared to 57% disagreeing. However, most voters distinguished between family payments and welfare, with 61% agreeing that family payments to middle-income earners were different to welfare payments to low income earners (we’ll discuss Essential’s results on views toward middle class welfare in more detail tomorrow).
There has also been a further rise in support for the Government’s plan to impose a price on carbon. After reaching the nadir of support at the end of March, when support was just 34% and opposition 51%, support grew in April and last week was at 41% support and 44% opposition, with Greens voters now strongly in favour of it after initially being lukewarm.
The poll also revealed a quite remarkable ignorance of one of the government’s key reforms, its scheduled increase in the compulsory superannuation rate to 12%. Around 53% of voters said they had not heard of the proposal and a further 27% saying they had heard little — a damning indictment of Labor’s efforts to sell what began as a key part of its mining tax package, particularly given there was strong support for the proposal across voters of different stripes.
UPDATE: Full report here.
ltep
[The budget deficit ‘monster’ is entirely of their own making. They never should’ve made the promise in the first place.]
Exactly. Ross Gittens and other respected economic commentators have been scathing about the unnecessary straitjacket the government has put on. They have had plenty of opportunity to get out of the self-imposed timetable without a penalty – especially the floods and cyclones – but haven’t had the strength to do it.
[Fifty-two per cent of voters back Wayne Swan’s budget night measure to continue the pause in indexation of the thresholds at which family payments are phased out, to 28% who oppose them. Even Liberal voters back them, 47-38%. ]
I always thought most people wouldn’t back the News ltd campaign for middle class welfare and the $150K pa battlers. It’s nice to have that confirmed.
[There has also been a further rise in support for the Government’s plan to impose a price on carbon. After reaching the nadir of support at the end of March, when support was just 34% and opposition 51%, support grew in April and last week was at 41% support and 44% opposition, with Greens voters now strongly in favour of it after initially being lukewarm.]
A good base on which to build now.
[After reaching the nadir of support at the end of March, when support was just 34% and opposition 51%, support grew in April and last week was at 41% support and 44% opposition]
Another welcome outcome. Hopefully Turnbull’s trashing of the coalition’s indirect, non action policy will result in more people coming to realise that pricing emissions really is the most sensible and logical policy approach.
[I always thought most people wouldn’t back the News ltd campaign for middle class welfare and the $150K pa battlers. It’s nice to have that confirmed.]
Sure is! I suspect some of that ‘failure’ to sell the superannuation rise though was because of the oxygen wasted refuting that stupid $150k battlers campaign.
The plot thickens.
More people supporting key budget measures and carbon pricing; climate “denialism” taking a whacking; Limited News now forced onto the back foot on a number of issues it has championed.
No wonder I’m smiling. 😀
Gary:
Yes, I agree. I’m also inclined to think the increase in Greens voter support has come because of publicly expressed support for a carbon tax by both Brown and Milne in the last week or so.
The release of detailed pricing mechanisms and household compensation should also help there as well.
Yeah; I love it when the media blame the government for not getting their message through at the same time they choose not to write up the press release that’s just dropped into their inbox.
confessions
i, too, thought that 150k limit, would lose more than it gained
Damn it!
How can people not know about the intentions of the government to increase super contributions?
[ Limited News now forced onto the back foot on a number of issues it has championed.]
Which is the way it should be. People will hopefully start to realise, it’s not Labor against Liberal/Nationals, it’s Rupert Murdoch against Australian progressives. And the Liberal/National parties are just an extension of his right arm
JV
Re “The budget deficit ‘monster’ is entirely of their own making. They never should’ve made the promise in the first place.”
.
That is true but political reality trumps real world reality. Just imagine the 24/7 LNP cacophony over this if Labor had done the sensible thing and not locked themselves in.
Insomnia last night gave me the opportunity to do some late night back of envelope calculations.
Right now, I think we’re looking at an election result of the Coalition winning with 80-83 seats and 52-53% of the 2PP vote.
It is a bit hard to call with the independents. Assuming they all choose to run again, Katter should be fine. I am not too sure of the fates of Oakeshot, Windsor, Wilkie and Crook, however the latter two should be inconsequential because, if they lose their seats, it will be to the ALP and Coalition respectively, both of whom they support. If the Liberal party sticks with its new preferencing policy in regard to the Greens, Bandt will likely lose his seat to the ALP.
The gains will be made in NSW and Victoria. There are a couple of seats that could be shaved off in QLD, as evidence indicates there is a swing against the govt there too.
WA couldn’t get any worse for the ALP. SA is hard to tell because the margins of ALP seats is huge but that was a very quick rise, which means it can be a quick fall too. Same with Tasmania. However, it’s likely the three will stay the same. As will the territories.
[Yeah; I love it when the media blame the government for not getting their message through at the same time they choose not to write up the press release that’s just dropped into their inbox.]
Hear, hear.
[The gains will be made in NSW and Victoria.]
The Coalition gains, that is.
From previous thread…
[So far the Climate Commission report has been very successful at putting the cat amongst the denialist pigeons. The result of it all, after this rearguard reaction from the deniers crumbles, will be an inevitable increase in voter support for strong action.]
Can’t say I agree with that entirely. Perhaps my views are a little jaundiced. I went to a Climate Change Commission meeting the other night (with Tim Flannery and the mob) – small crowd, most clearly do not believe in climate change, and most supporting the local Coalition
moronmember. The panel just answered the same old boring questions, gave the same old boring lines about flooding and were generally uninspiring. One presumes they are a little tired of it all.All in all, I saw no game changers, and the current report really just adds to the list of reports that tell us there is a problem (well, a few really). It seems to me that the Govt really needs MT to shout from the rooftops and dig the middle ground Liberal Party out of it’s little hole in the soon-to-be-inundated ground. In one sense, if MT were to retake the Coalition leadership it would make the Govt’s life harder (stupid mistakes not withstanding), but it would also make it easier.
[Just imagine the 24/7 LNP cacophony over this if Labor had done the sensible thing and not locked themselves in.]
There’s still a ‘cacohony’. It’s just worded in a slightly different way. As it is, all they’re doing is feeding into the impression that we must have a budget surplus at all expenses and regardless of who it will effect.
[Right now, I think we’re looking at an election result of the Coalition winning with 80-83 seats and 52-53% of the 2PP vote.]
The key words are ‘right now’.
From Le Twitter
[latikambourke Latika Bourke
Greens say a new climate report shows Aust’s Carbon Price needs to be ‘as high as we can possibly get it.’]
Seriously, are the Greens stupid? Way to feed a negative talking point!
TSOP:
Am i correct in remembering there was a redistribution in SA which made Pyne’s seat more safe for him?
[Damn it!
How can people not know about the intentions of the government to increase super contributions?]
i did not know that
Danny Lewis
I think the Climate Commission report is exposing the deniers at last as the tide turns (no pun intended), and I suspect they will not get as easy a time in the media as they have enjoyed so far in this country – except with Murdoch.
If – and it’s not a small if – the government can somehow get out on the front foot at last on the issue, we could see a groundswell of popular support for strong action.
[In one sense, if MT were to retake the Coalition leadership it would make the Govt’s life harder]
I don’t entirely understand this line of argument. Turnbull was a failure the first time around and nothing leads me to believe he’d be any better a second time. This is aside from the fact that a large portion of the party could not stomach having him as leader again.
not sure what is being alluded to here
GREENJ | 1 minute ago
[it would appear the opposition intends employing props later in the day … #qt]
[There’s still a ‘cacohony’. It’s just worded in a slightly different way. As it is, all they’re doing is feeding into the impression that we must have a budget surplus at all expenses and regardless of who it will effect.]
It’s far better to be seen and criticised for being economically responsible rather than for being economically irresponsible.
Mr Abbott now doing what Mr (R) Hunt would never have done – use an obituary to score partisan political points.
Mr (R) Hunt was a gentleman. Mr Abbott, of course, is not.
[The key words are ‘right now’.]
Well, of course, what else can I work with?
Boerwar
Abbott is nothing more than slime
Boerwar:
It was pretty blatant, and in very poor taste. Pyne chuckling away in the background as well. How distastement.
I cannot watch. Is this fairly accurate?
[AshGhebranious AshGhebranious
by Dan_Gulberry
#qt Abbott turning a eulogy into an election campaign. Good taste!
4 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply]
Dee
Yes!
nappin
Sorry to hear the latest Commission forum was uninspiring. I saw the Ipswich one on News24 and thought it was fantastic for getting the word out in local communities. All the deniers asking questions came across as propeller hats.
[Am i correct in remembering there was a redistribution in SA which made Pyne’s seat more safe for him?]
Not sure. I know there’s one due this year. I dunno how it will affect Pyne’s seat but it’s believed by many that it will make Southcott’s seat weaker or even possibly notionally Labor (not that this means the ALP will win it next time – there is a swing against the govt here too)
Never mind!
Looks like that tweet was spot on.
Boerwar @ 26
[ Mr Abbott now doing what Mr (R) Hunt would never have done – use an obituary to score partisan political points.
Mr (R) Hunt was a gentleman. Mr Abbott, of course, is not.
]
That was excessively tacky from Abbott… “Ralph did his job, in getting rid of a bad government”.
The man has no boundaries.
[Well, of course, what else can I work with?]
Just trying to make the point that, as an exercise, it rates as useful as people taking polls in early 2008 and saying Labor would win 100 seats. Interesting enpough I suppose but useless.
Toxic just couldn’t help himself politicising a bereavement motion, wanger
[I suspect they will not get as easy a time in the media as they have enjoyed so far in this country – except with Murdoch.]
errrr! Isn’t that the larger chunk of the media? (I use the term ‘media’ with some trepidation when discussing Murdoch.) Given the ABC is now News Ltd Lite, that only leaves Fairfax and Kerry S, neither of whom is a shining light. I wish you were right jv.
[It’s far better to be seen and criticised for being economically responsible rather than for being economically irresponsible.]
So the current budgetary position is due to irresponsibility?
[Not sure. I know there’s one due this year.]
Thanks. I just read about a redistribution in SA recently, but it’s obviously referring to a forthcoming redistribution.
Full Essential Research report here.
will we have play school today or not
What?
[GreenJ Jonathan Green
it would appear the opposition intends employing props later in the day … #qt
7 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply]
Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think Abbott just pointedly included his theme of “good guys work to get rid of an incompetent govt” in motion of regret on Ralph Hunt.
Has he no social consciene at all?
Sorry, I was too slow…
[Toxic just couldn’t help himself politicising a bereavement motion, wanger]
I put my foot in my mouth and made a similar comment on Twitter, despite not seeing Gillard’s initial speech. Apparently she did exactly the same.
FFS!!!
boats.
Thanks William.
The ‘perceptions of welfare’ questions are very reassuring.
Oops, ‘responses’.