Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition; Essential Research: 54-46

Relatively good news for Labor from Newspoll, which shows the Coalition’s eight point two-party lead cut to four. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 34 per cent and the Coalition down two to 44 per cent, while the Greens have shot up four points to 14 per cent. Two points of this gain seems to be a correction after an anomaly last time; it could be that the other two show there’s some sort of an audience for criticism of News Limited. Personal ratings are essentially unchanged: Gillard’s approval up one to 35 per cent, disapproval down one to 54 per cent, Abbott is down one to 37 per cent and up two to 53 per cent, and Gillard’s preferred prime minister lead is up from 42-38 to 44-37. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.

Today’s Essential Research wasn’t as kind to Labor, though the different time frames should be noted: Newspoll was conducted from Friday to Sunday, whereas the survey period for the more recent half of the Essential result covered Wednesday to Sunday. The Coalition lead was up from 53-47 to 54-46, but since the primary votes were unchanged (Coalition 47 per cent, Labor 34 per cent, Greens 12 per cent), there is obviously not much in this. The poll also turned up another painful personal result for Gillard, who trails Kevin Rudd as preferred Labor leader by 32 per cent to 23 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull likewise leads Tony Abbott, but by a lesser margin of 25 per cent to 22 per cent. As usual, Rudd and Turnbull secured their leads off the back of supporters of the other party.

We also get results on which party represents the interests of various groups, which show Labor holding modest leads for various manifestions of Joe Public and the Liberals maintaining brand recognition as the party of business and the wealthy. The Liberals however hold an interesting 31 per cent to 19 per cent lead on “the next generation of Australians”, which I can only assume represents a belief they will leave them with less debt. Yet another question on support for the carbon tax finds a spike in its favour last week to have been aberration: support is down three to 38 per cent and opposition up four to 48 per cent, almost exactly where it was two polls ago. On the question of whether an early election should be held as a result of the carbon tax, opinion is perfectly evenly divided on 42 per cent, with “yes” up two and “no” down two since the question was last asked in March.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,386 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition; Essential Research: 54-46”

  1. [Ok. There is no way Aust. will ever compete in heavy equipment manufacture with the rest of the global market, and is silly to try.]

    And this is true for all manufacturing. If a product is available, that is cheaper and better as an import, why subsidise local manufacturing of this product?

    That is what I was trying to say last night.

  2. [Looking forward to July 1. The Greens Party will face its own challenges. Interesting times ahead]

    I wish you the best of luck. I sincerely do. With power comes a whole new amount of burdens. Having to be responsible and make rational decisions is not as easy as it looks and you tend to alienate everyone.

    It’s much easier being in opposition, when you are united against something.

  3. What makes you think the new Senate will be be a rubber stamp Rua?

    I think Bob Brown will find his team of egos on the loose harder to herd than a hatfull of cats.

  4. Quote from the link:

    [We should not forget that some of the strongest supporters of totalitarian regimes in the last century have been scientists and, in return, the State lavishes praise, money and respectability on them. One writer, speaking about the rise of Nazism, said this…]

    Confessions, I agree, I can’t believe they would publish this. Just pathetic

  5. george,
    Kerry Anne Chikarovski who was leader of the New South Wales Liberal Party in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly.

  6. 3345 george
    Posted Thursday, June 2, 2011 at 6:10 pm
    [(NOTE: the “stiff tits” is directed at both male and female pollies!)]

    Wouldn’t want to be seen to be sexist in this environment.
    Never heard the term “stiff tits” in a political context before.

  7. [Sad that Bosch is closing down in Victoria.]

    Why? Could it be that the highly educated, highly paid Taiwanese are better at makin’ stuff?

  8. Dee

    Check with BB he also heard the discusssion. There were no particular points made about Gillard in that discussion from what I heard. They were simply saying that Question Time lacked decorum and there appeared to be no control of the proceedings.

    Farr was simply saying there are no constraints being placed on people to apply reasonable behaviour on themselves. He added as I said that Jenkins seems gun shy after what happened with the near miss the other day.

    I certainly idn’t interpret their words to be gender based. More that they were pining for the politics of a former era.

    By the way for me Combet and Albo did very well today and I think that Nicola Roxon along with Penny Wong and Tanya Pliberseck do very well also.

  9. [Never heard the term “stiff tits” in a political context before.]

    When it’s cold your tits go stiff – mine do, cause I have no heater in my room 😛 Makes me quite alert and productive!

  10. [george,
    Kerry Anne Chikarovski who was leader of the New South Wales Liberal Party in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly.]

    how suprisement

  11. J6P

    [Ok. There is no way Aust. will ever compete in heavy equipment manufacture with the rest of the global market, and is silly to try.]

    I thought that Australia did have a reasonable industry in taking the chassis and drive chain and adding the bodywork, trailers, boxcars, etc. I know my brother-in-law used to do some pretty spectacular work in bodywork and sleeping quarters in trucks back 6 or 7 years ago.

  12. 3359 ruawake
    Posted Thursday, June 2, 2011 at 6:18 pm | Permalink
    [Sad that Bosch is closing down in Victoria.

    Why? Could it be that the highly educated, highly paid Taiwanese are better at makin’ stuff?]

    Because another 1200 people will lose their job.
    That’s sad, to me.

  13. [Misfit
    Posted Thursday, June 2, 2011 at 6:14 pm | Permalink

    3340 Joe6pack
    Posted Thursday, June 2, 2011 at 6:04 pm

    Ok. There is no way Aust. will ever compete in heavy equipment manufacture with the rest of the global market, and is silly to try

    How heavy is a ship?
    http://www.asc.com.au/aspx/news_latest.aspx

    Although, I take your point: re the automotive industry.
    Sad that Bosch is closing down in Victoria.]

    A Spanish design first one built in Spain others under license here to prop up a bloated industry with peter reith as a consultant.
    Collins class subs all over again

  14. Dee

    While I agree it is HARDER for any female PM, I find the arguments that that is what it is all about re Gillard as PM as insufficient and out of touch.

    In Australia we DO NOT change PMs at a whim – we wait and then when ready people move on. Hawke had been PM for practically 10 YEARS. PEOPLE UNDERSTOOD HIM AND THE GOVERNMENT. Keating had clearly signalled his ambition and there was a general acceptance in the community and labor party that it was Jeating’s turn. The suspicion that Hawke was unwell/unfit was also entrenched in the media and to an extent the population.

    Therefore while the electorate would have PREFERRED a gentle handover, there was never any sense that Keating had been tricky or underhand regarding his dealings with Hawke. If anything the reverse was true – Hawke had stayed too long.

    Very much the same would have been the case if Costello had taken over from Howard.

    With the Rudd removal none of these things applied. I have said this before so will not repeat myself. The important point is that it is risky and out of touch to assume that the electrorate’s failure to warm to Julia is BECAUSE she is a woman. I grant you it makes it 10% or so harder, but it is foolish to assume that that is all it is.

    Does this matter? Yes because by focussing in on the “women” thing people fail to understand the real mood of the electorate.

    I think even focussing on the media is too narrow. Again the negative media probably explains 10% of the bad feeling.

    This still leaves 80% for all the other issues that must be addressed if Labor (and Julia) are to regain popularity. Stop clutching at straws and help Julia and Labor get back in favour.

    Actually Labor has had a pretty good week this week. Just possibly the upswing has begun. Why – because they got out and SOLD the carbon tax. Nothing to do with being female. Penny Wong and Tanya P doing just great. Greg Combet and Malcolm Turnbull helped a bit too.

  15. [When it’s cold your tits go stiff – mine do, cause I have no heater in my room 😛 Makes me quite alert and productive!]

    Sounds like someone needs insulation..

  16. [Sunds like someone needs insulation..]

    Cud, we’re doing a major renovation this year – I aint spending a nickel until then 😀

  17. Re: Serco….this was the breaking news just mentioned on the Drum
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/06/02/3233466.htm?site=kimberley
    [Former high-ranking employees from the company that manages Australia’s immigration detention centres say systemic mismanagement of taxpayer funds is being “swept under the table” by the Government.

    In a series of explosive allegations, two former employees of the private security firm which has a $756 million contract with the Federal Government claim fines for contract breaches at detention centres are being pushed to the side “for political reasons”.]

  18. daretotread
    [ Stop clutching at straws and help Julia and Labor get back in favour.]
    Not clutching at straws. I truly believe there are different expectations/perceptions/rules regarding male & female politicians.
    Rabbott & Co have exploited this very successfully IMO.
    As it turns out it looks like journos are starting to pick up on the double standards.

  19. poroti,
    [Rummel
    .
    “NBN – no one on low income will be able to afford it.”
    .
    Wrong Wrong Wrong. As Ruawake suggests fiber will see prices fall. Check out the fiber internet,tv,phone bundles already on offer in England ]

    Don’t worry about England. Telstra is furiously offering bundling deals that almost make your head spin, right now. Probably to try and position themselves so as to not bleed too many customers when the switch over to the NBN occurs.

    I had a bitch about my plan and got offered a monthly bundling @ $99, a free T Box, $50 of free movies, a new Wi-fi modem and close to a guarantee that I should expect no less than 8 Mgs in comparison to my current 4 Kpm’s to 1300 or so.

    The shift to Broadband from dial-up was hard to pick sometimes! 😉

    If you’re not happy with their service, now is a good time to let them know & get upgraded with an associated “discount”!

    Sorry, Telstra! 😉

  20. I have written to the Leader of the Opposition as follows:

    Dear Mr Abbott

    May I with respect draw your attention to this report from todays media

    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/religious-leaders-back-carbon-tax-20110602-1fie4.html

    Given your background and your expressions of faith and belief in the teachings of the Catholic Church and the Pope, will you continue to deny climate change,that which your collegues in the Christian faith, including your spiritual leader the Pope accept as Gospel truth? Or will you continue to deny and stay outside your church, the existance of climate change and the need for a price on carbon.

    Even the great denialist St Thomas saw the error of his ways. Are you above even that holy man’s humility?
    Perhaps now that even those of your own faith oppose your views, the time has come for an act of humility on your part and acceptance of the science as expressed by the Holy Father. Surely his words you accept as the final truth.

    Yours Sincerely
    etc…

  21. george @ 3342

    Note how Carmen Lawrence, Joan Kirner Anna Bligh and Kristina Kenneally were treated compared to their male counterparts.

    Notice a pattern ?

    I remember particularly how Joan Kirner was treated Frank – an absolute disgrace.

    What is the pattern George, I don’t see one other than the leadership baton being passed to them as things were going sour.

    Kenneally won a lot of praise for doing a good job in the worst of circumstances.

    Bligh has yet to go to an election but won acclaim for her leadership during the Qld floods. But her govt also did things to enrage voters. The outcome is yet to be seen.

    Joan Kirner was a disaster as Education Minister but was thrown a hospital pass when she was made premier. I think she was generally admired for her fighting a losing battle.

    Carmen Lawrence was headed for a brilliant career but seems to have stuffed it for herself over the Easton affair. It was just sheer folly on her part and so unnecessary.

    Where is the pattern?

  22. [Abbott’s approach is repulsive to most Crikey posters, out there he’s getting alot of traction. Out there, what ever he says, people are taking as gospel truth. He’s getting stronger.]

    wrong.

    at my hairdresser to day to girl talked about the incident yesterday with wong.
    cannot stand tone.

    do not know who you mix with

  23. [3381

    bemused

    Posted Thursday, June 2, 2011 at 7:16 pm | Permalink

    george @ 3342

    Note how Carmen Lawrence, Joan Kirner Anna Bligh and Kristina Kenneally were treated compared to their male counterparts.

    Notice a pattern ?

    I remember particularly how Joan Kirner was treated Frank – an absolute disgrace.

    What is the pattern George, I don’t see one other than the leadership baton being passed to them as things were going sour.

    Kenneally won a lot of praise for doing a good job in the worst of circumstances.

    Bligh has yet to go to an election but won acclaim for her leadership during the Qld floods. But her govt also did things to enrage voters. The outcome is yet to be seen.

    Joan Kirner was a disaster as Education Minister but was thrown a hospital pass when she was made premier. I think she was generally admired for her fighting a losing battle.

    Carmen Lawrence was headed for a brilliant career but seems to have stuffed it for herself over the Easton affair. It was just sheer folly on her part and so unnecessary.

    Where is the pattern?
    ]

    how they were potrayed in the media.

  24. Mytwobobsworth @ 2986

    [Media watch dog to investigate Alan Jones re Climate Change.]

    “The Parrot” is no stranger to being under investigation, whether it be ACMA for the egregious ‘Cash for Comments’ affair, or for his serial offences under the ‘Commonsense and Truth Act’ – would that he could be prosecuted and incarcerated in a maximum security twilight facility under such an Act!

    This man is a congenital and pathological liar, willing to make any outragous claims to his rednecked and geriatric listeners as long as these claims confirm and re-inforce their pre-existing fears and prejudices – this is how one maintains a job in the upside-down world of the shockjocks.

    It matters not what the issue is – propaganda spin can be applied with ruthless, Goebbels-like efficiency, rendering a right-wing overcast to any viewpoint, as long as the treatment conforms to the standard talkback radio formula – making the audience afraid, and providing the audience with someone to blame.

    “The Parrot” is the pre-eminent practitioner of this fear mongering and mendacity, his confected outrage rising in pitch and ferocity in direct proportion to the manifest untruth of the proposition he is frothing at the mouth about.

    Pretty simple, really ….

  25. Dee

    Hope you are on this thread still – may copy to other thread anyway.

    I honestly do not think that Anna Bligh is treated any other way than equally by the media. Her clothes and looks are not much discussed (no more than JWH’s eyebrows or Abbotts smugglers). To the extent that she has a negative label it is “Captain Bligh” certainly not a sexist image.

    Sadly I think that for Julia it was the comparison with Anna during the Qld floods that did her damage. It is hard to see how this is sexist exactly. Mind you I think JG’s minders had her doing rather bimboist stunts at the time – serving tea etc while Anna was making the big decisions. A very hard call to make so I do not wish to be too critical – but it did not work well. My point is that it is NOT sexism or anti woman as such.

    This is not to say that there is NO anti woman bias it is just that it is unwise to assume that it is the most important issue. It may be issue no 8 for most people with issues like the, carbon tax, assylum seekers, health care, interest rates, jobs, NBN, or live exports taking the top spots. There is evidence that suggests her lack of religion may be a much bigger issue than her sex. (I am also a confirmed atheist so this is not meant to be negative just a statement of fact)

  26. confessions @ 3353

    [Are there no depths the ABC isn’t willing to plumb? This stuff is best left for the tabloids.]

    The ABC is now 100% tabloid thanks to Mark Scott and the cohort of conservatives who have hijacked the middle and upper management of the national broadcaster.

    The race for tabloid ratings drives everything the ABC now does, in direct and flagrant disregard of the ABC Charter, and the clear results of this benighted policy are evident in dire examples like the debased 7.30 Report.

    Sack the ABC Managing Director now – this is the only means remaining to arrest the moribund ABC’s slide down the S Bend of news and current affairs history.

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