EMRS: Liberal 48, Labor 25, Greens 22 in Tasmania

Tasmanian polling outfit EMRS has released one of its occasional surveys of about 850 respondents on state voting intention. As always, you need to go to EMRS’s Table 3 to get the “percentage of decided voters” figure that other pollsters would publish as the headline: Liberal 48 per cent (up two since February), Labor 25 per cent (down two) and the Greens 22 per cent (up five). These figures are respectively up two, down two and down three on the February poll, conducted shortly after Lara Giddings became Premier, and would almost certainly deliver majority government to the Liberals if repeated at an election. Giddings has also gone backwards from her unpromising start against Will Hodgman as preferred Premier: Giddings is down five to 22 per cent, Hodgman up four to 42 per cent and Greens leader Nick McKim up two to 18 per cent.

In other news, the recount to determine who fills former Premier David Bartlett’s vacancy in his House of Assembly seat of Denison was won by Graeme Sturges, who lost his seat in last year’s election. Sturges is best remembered for telling a security guard at a 2009 parliamentary function: β€œDon’t you know who I am? I’ll have your f..king job.” This is generally credited with the subsequent collapse of his primary vote from 9.6 per cent 1.9 per cent. Sturges owes his recount win to the fact that the other Labor incumbent to lose their seat, Lisa Singh, has since found a place in the Senate – she polled 6.0 per cent at the election. This effectively produced a two-horse race between Sturges and the one remaining Labor candidate, Madeleine Ogilvie. The recount, based on preferences from the votes which elected David Bartlett, gave 5362 votes to Sturges (51.3 per cent) and 4197 to Ogilvie (40.1 per cent). The Australian’s Strewth column advises that Sturges has retracted his apology after the security guard incident, which was “forced by a spin doctor”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6 comments on “EMRS: Liberal 48, Labor 25, Greens 22 in Tasmania”

  1. As July looms and the Greens representation in the Chamber almost doubles it will interesting for some to witness how the party deals with its newly found power and the question of who will succeed Brown.

    Two lawyers, a GP & public health specialist, and an ex-journalist & NSW MLC will take their place on the red benches on July 1. The increased numbers will result in a combined Labor/Green vote of 40, giving it a buffer of 3 votes after the appointment of the President and for the sake of worst case, the DLP and Independent senators vote with the Opposition.

    I stand to be corrected but I can’t recall a time in which the centre-left & left have enjoyed control of the Chamber, with the result that we are entering unchartered waters. The Greens, to differentiate themselves from Labor, may feel inclined to move further to the left, with the result that some unholy alliances may ensue. The question also arises as to whether the Greens will be disciplined as a party. Brown found it relatively easy to keep a party of five in toe, but nine may prove more onerous, which may hasten his retirement.

    Speaking of retirement Bob Brown turn 68 this year and has been a senator for 15 years. He may or may not be sick, but last week he looked quite drawn to me. No matter how keen and erudite he is, relentless attacks in the media must take their toll. He may therefore consider retirement when his current term expires or before, leading to the question of succession.

    In my view his deputy lacks the gravitas of Brown and her forbidding media presence does not auger well in the leader stakes. Siewert, apart from the current live-cattle issue, is not well known. Hanson Young is still a bit wet behind the ears. Ludlam seems a bit nervous before the media but I do think he presents a good image and is articulate. Only one of the incoming senators has a high media profile, but I think Rhiannon has too much baggage from her days in the Council and is too far to the left.

    In the absence of Bob Brown, coupled with the increased scrutiny that will result from holding the balance of power, the Greens may well reach peak-Green in the term of the current parliament, notwithstanding the party having been written off many times before.

  2. I’d comment on this but the political situation down here is so dire, that we seem to be running out of alternatives. there aren’t enough good MPs combined to make one good side, let alone two.

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