Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition; Essential Research: 54-46

Relatively good news for Labor from Newspoll, which shows the Coalition’s eight point two-party lead cut to four. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 34 per cent and the Coalition down two to 44 per cent, while the Greens have shot up four points to 14 per cent. Two points of this gain seems to be a correction after an anomaly last time; it could be that the other two show there’s some sort of an audience for criticism of News Limited. Personal ratings are essentially unchanged: Gillard’s approval up one to 35 per cent, disapproval down one to 54 per cent, Abbott is down one to 37 per cent and up two to 53 per cent, and Gillard’s preferred prime minister lead is up from 42-38 to 44-37. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.

Today’s Essential Research wasn’t as kind to Labor, though the different time frames should be noted: Newspoll was conducted from Friday to Sunday, whereas the survey period for the more recent half of the Essential result covered Wednesday to Sunday. The Coalition lead was up from 53-47 to 54-46, but since the primary votes were unchanged (Coalition 47 per cent, Labor 34 per cent, Greens 12 per cent), there is obviously not much in this. The poll also turned up another painful personal result for Gillard, who trails Kevin Rudd as preferred Labor leader by 32 per cent to 23 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull likewise leads Tony Abbott, but by a lesser margin of 25 per cent to 22 per cent. As usual, Rudd and Turnbull secured their leads off the back of supporters of the other party.

We also get results on which party represents the interests of various groups, which show Labor holding modest leads for various manifestions of Joe Public and the Liberals maintaining brand recognition as the party of business and the wealthy. The Liberals however hold an interesting 31 per cent to 19 per cent lead on “the next generation of Australians”, which I can only assume represents a belief they will leave them with less debt. Yet another question on support for the carbon tax finds a spike in its favour last week to have been aberration: support is down three to 38 per cent and opposition up four to 48 per cent, almost exactly where it was two polls ago. On the question of whether an early election should be held as a result of the carbon tax, opinion is perfectly evenly divided on 42 per cent, with “yes” up two and “no” down two since the question was last asked in March.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,386 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition; Essential Research: 54-46”

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  1. Misfit

    [What does running a country have to do with wit? Wisdom, maybe, but not wit.]

    It encourages people to listen!

  2. [Mesma on Capital Hill. “Tony Abbott is on a truth campaign”.
    Well I never!!!]

    BK, had to clear my ears on that one also 😮

  4. [Do you need a truck for something?]

    No, what I am trying to figure out is why Abbott thinks we should make stuff that people do not want to buy.

  5. Looking at Antony Green’s estimated margins for new Victorian electorates using 2010 Federal results, my electorate of Deakin has become even more marginal for ALP, going down from 2.4% to 0.6%.

  6. poroti @3277

    Thanks to the link to the religious leaders’ comments. It lifted my spirits, showing that very slowly, reps of all the groups – economic, scientific, religious, are gathering to express support. Lovely 🙂

  8. 3301 Mytwobobsworth
    Posted Thursday, June 2, 2011 at 5:37 pm | Permalink

    [What does running a country have to do with wit? Wisdom, maybe, but not wit.

    It encourages people to listen!]

    Don’t agree. 9-5 workers (if there’s still such a thing) only hear the sound bites on the news, if at all. How does that encourage them to listen to parliament. Only seems to add to the idea that the pollies are an overpaid rabble.

  9. [The grabs on the nightime news would be huge turn off for the average punter.

    Both said that a Keating or Costello like character is nowhere to be seen today and the parliament is all the worse for that.]

    The public think QT is a turn-off regardless of who is in it. It’s only tragics and the press gallery who yearn for a return of Keating or Costello to brighten QT with their wit.

  10. [Jullie talking common sense on Capital Hill and dressed well compared to the crumpled talking head next to her]

    I didn’t know lies and misinformation was code for “common sense”. But then again, common sense also tells you the earth is flat.

  11. [Jullie talking common sense on Capital Hill and dressed well compared to the crumpled talking head next to her]

    rummel is nikki savva. 😆

  12. [Mesma on Capital Hill. “Tony Abbott is on a truth campaign”.
    Well I never!!!]

    BK – she just proved that he is desperate if she has to make that kind of comment.

  15. rummel
    [It all comes down to Gillard is an untrustworthy back staber who will lie clear as day on TV then shove your face in it later. ]

    That is not true. The “back staber (sic)” story was made up by her enemies.

  16. [Cant tanya just let her finnish!]

    Finish what? Going on and on and on like she’s reading a text book on nonsense?

  17. Looking forward to July 1. The Greens Party will face its own challenges. Interesting times ahead 🙂
    [In her Whitlam Oration in April, she said that “the Greens will never embrace Labor’s delight at sharing the values of everyday Australians… who day after day do the right thing, leading purposeful and dignified lives, driven by love of family and nation.” This was dog-whistle politics every bit as canine as John Howard at his wiliest, but while she was applauded by her own for staking Labor’s claim to embody and represent “the values of everyday Australians” (whatever that means) she was in fact responding to the Coalition’s jibe that – to continue the analogy – the Green tail was wagging the Labor dog…..

    …..With another significant player on the field, the politics from mid 2011 will be game-changing. The Greens will not be wished out of existence or marginalised by dog-whistle tactics; they are part of political reality, and both Labor and the Coalition will have to recognise and deal with that reality. Just how they manage, or don’t manage, will shape politics for the foreseeable future.]
    http://inside.org.au/the-senate-game-change/

  19. Earlier on ABC 774 radio

    Some chap from Monash, Dennis something, gave a good critique of the “sexism” stuff.
    Said wtte that it is quite obvious that the LNP is using subtle sexism against JG. The unmarried, childless idea.

  20. Misfit

    [Don’t agree. 9-5 workers (if there’s still such a thing) only hear the sound bites on the news, if at all.]

    And those soundbites are the ones which will be played.

    Think of Keating “I’m gonna do you slowly!” “the recession we had to have” etc.

    It was Farr and Glover’s conversation I was relaying but I think they have a point.

  21. [@hughrimintonhughriminton

    #630Negus The inexorable isolation of Tony Abbott’s position on climate change. #auspol and what the PM really said about Christopher Pyne.]

  23. [Jullie talking common sense on Capital Hill]

    You mean, like this:

    [Tony Abbott is on a truth campaign”.]

    Lol! Hilarious.

  24. [The Greens will not be wished out of existence or marginalised by dog-whistle tactics; they are part of political reality, and both Labor and the Coalition will have to recognise and deal with that reality.]

    And so will the Greens and their supporters. I bet many will not like the deal Milne endorses on the CT. But they will have to grin and bear (and bare) it.

  25. Watching the expression on Abbott’s face during QT today, I wouldn’t like to be his cat when he gets home. He had that slightly loose-lipped stare that bodes evil.

  26. 3318 Frank Calabrese
    Posted Thursday, June 2, 2011 at 5:47 pm | Permalink

    [All together Now:]

    You’re not getting me with that one again, Frank Calabrese.

    After your “Hit it Marty” the other night, I spent the rest of the evening down memory lane. Saying to OH and the kids, come and look at this!

    Thanks though. Great respite.

  31. [Who was it who was wondering when / if Morrison would like the mistreatment of cattle with AS?

    Wonder no more.
    -LINK-]

    Confessions, that was 🙂 and 🙁 to Morrison

  37. The new Senate will be a rubber stamp for the HoR. I wonder why people are getting their knickers in a knot about it.

  38. MyTwoBob
    I don’t think it would matter how witty Gillard was. It would not be reported as such.
    Regardless of the politics, put it aside for the moment.
    There seems to be a real gender bias in this country.
    I know your perceptions of Gillard are coloured by her ascention to PM’ship but the reality is that Australia really does seem to lack acceptance of a female in the top job.
    Political heads roll all the time. It’s not pretty. There are always winners & losers & winners sooner or later become the losers.

    However, for some reason, the rules of the game are different for a female.
    It must be somehow handed to her ‘cleanly’ as a token & she must not assert herself in the role.
    Rabbott has exploited this gender bias successfully, painting Gillard as the scheming witch. Never mind that the males are doing it everyday in politics.

    Julie Bishop has been handed around as the token female always there in support of her man. I think this is how Aussies like to see their female politicians.
    I just don’t think Aussies can accept that a woman can be a PM & accept that with that role she has to get in there and kick heads. Fight over policy & poke holes in her opponents.

  39. [Monks and rabbis have stood alongside Catholics and Anglicans in Canberra to show support for the federal government’s plan to tackle climate change.

    Leaders from the Australian Religious Response to Climate Change (ARRCC) met Prime Minister Julia Gillard in support of the carbon tax today.

    Anglican representative George Browning said the group wanted to assist politicians to create good legislation and the message to Ms Gillard was that the issue was a moral one.

    He said caring for the environment was at the core of all faiths and agreed with former prime minister Kevin Rudd that the issue was the greatest moral challenge of our time.

    “It impacts on every aspect of life,” Bishop Browning told reporters in Canberra, adding it was a threat to political and military security.

    Asked why Opposition Leader Tony Abbott, a Catholic, lacked faith in the need for a carbon price, the Reverend Browning said: “If I knew the answer to that question I’d give it to you.”]

    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/religious-leaders-back-carbon-tax-20110602-1fie4.html

  40. [ruawake
    Posted Thursday, June 2, 2011 at 5:40 pm | Permalink

    Do you need a truck for something?

    No, what I am trying to figure out is why Abbott thinks we should make stuff that people do not want to buy.]

    Ok. There is no way Aust. will ever compete in heavy equipment manufacture with the rest of the global market, and is silly to try.

  41. [3338

    Dee

    Posted Thursday, June 2, 2011 at 6:02 pm | Permalink

    MyTwoBob
    I don’t think it would matter how witty Gillard was. It would not be reported as such.
    Regardless of the politics, put it aside for the moment.
    There seems to be a real gender bias in this country.
    I know your perceptions of Gillard are coloured by her ascention to PM’ship but the reality is that Australia really does seem to lack acceptance of a female in the top job.
    Political heads roll all the time. It’s not pretty. There are always winners & losers & winners sooner or later become the losers.

    However, for some reason, the rules of the game are different for a female.
    It must be somehow handed to her ‘cleanly’ as a token & she must not assert herself in the role.
    Rabbott has exploited this gender bias successfully, painting Gillard as the scheming witch. Never mind that the males are doing it everyday in politics.

    Julie Bishop has been handed around as the token female always there in support of her man. I think this is how Aussies like to see their female politicians.
    I just don’t think Aussies can accept that a woman can be a PM & accept that with that role she has to get in there and kick heads. Fight over policy & poke holes in her opponents
    ]

    Note how Carmen Lawrence, Joan Kirner Anna Bligh and Kristina Kenneally were treated compared to their male counterparts.

    Notice a pattern ?

  42. [Note how Carmen Lawrence, Joan Kirner Anna Bligh and Kristina Kenneally were treated compared to their male counterparts.

    Notice a pattern ?]

    I remember particularly how Joan Kirner was treated Frank – an absolute disgrace.

  43. Oh, too much in Vidtoria

    Louise Asher (Lib) slept in her office during a vote.
    Abbott did too.

    What’s with these comfy offices?

  45. [What’s with these comfy offices?]

    Need to turn off the heating… a few stiff tits will help them all focus (NOTE: the “stiff tits” is directed at both male and female pollies!)

  46. [It all comes down to Gillard is an untrustworthy back staber who will lie clear as day on TV then shove your face in it later. Its a laugh, it took John 11-12 years to go Off, Its taken Kev, Gillard, and the back door boys 4 years to reach epic stench of fail]

    Going to have to use better bait than that if you want to come to PB trolling.

  47. [Danny Lewis
    Posted Thursday, June 2, 2011 at 3:53 pm | Permalink

    [Tony Abbott talks to Alan Jones about carbon tax, the economy and the federal political scene http://bit.ly/jPMQGu

    … just for something different.]

    Obviously steeling himself for a tough interrogation.

  49. Speaking of cats, I just got home with mine from the vet – the poor thing’s got a urinary infection, she’s had an anti-biotic injection, and is already almost back to her old self.
    All good! 🙂

    Anything useful out of Abbott’s censure motion? Once he started rabbiting on, I switched off. 😀
    The Liberals were a badly behaved rabble in QT – I guess they’re representative of their supporters, the sort of nasty folk who endlessly feature on right wing talkback radio.

  50. 3340 Joe6pack
    Posted Thursday, June 2, 2011 at 6:04 pm
    [Ok. There is no way Aust. will ever compete in heavy equipment manufacture with the rest of the global market, and is silly to try]

    How heavy is a ship?
    http://www.asc.com.au/aspx/news_latest.aspx

    Although, I take your point: re the automotive industry.
    Sad that Bosch is closing down in Victoria.

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