2011: episode one

Happy new year everybody. Limiting our brief to known knowns, we have the following entries in the 2011 electoral calendar.

• The NSW Labor government’s date for the electoral mincer is set for March 26. Mumble man Peter Brent has bravely ventured that Labor “will do better than opinion polls in 2010 said they would, perhaps emerging with around 30 out of 93 seats”. My tip is that this prediction of Brent’s won’t scrub up quite as nicely after the event as those he made in relation to Victoria.

• John Brumby’s exit from politics will result in a by-election in his ultra-safe northern Melbourne seat of Broadmeadows, probably in February or March. According to David Rood of The Age, early contenders for Labor preselection include “former Brumby adviser and Labor state secretary Nick Reece, former adviser to Steve Bracks and lobbyist Danny Pearson, Hume councillor Burhan Yigit, ex-Labor party officer and right-wing figure Mehmet Tillem, recently defeated Labor upper house MP Nathan Murphy and former Hobsons Bay Council mayor Bill Baarini”. One might surmise that other Victorian by-elections will follow before the year is through.

• Four of the 15 seats in Tasmania’s Legislative Council will become vacant this year, with elections almost certain to be held on May 7. These include two of the three seats held by Labor, with the other two being among the 11 held by independents (Vanessa Goodwin in Pembroke being the sole Liberal). In the normal course of events, two or three seats are on rotation to become vacant each year: this year is the turn of Launceston, Murchison and Rumney. Veteran independent Don Wing is retiring in Launceston, which will be constested for the Liberals by state party president Sam McQuestin. Sitting independent Ruth Forrest will seek another term in Murchison – she will be opposed by a Labor candidate in the person of Waratah-Wynyard mayor Kevin Hyland (UPDATE: Kevin Bonham in comments advises that Hyland is no longer a starter), but not by the Liberals. Labor’s Lin Thorp is up for re-election in Rumney, and I can find no mention of potential challengers (it’s not unknown for Legislative Council members to be returned unopposed, but the Greens at least can be relied upon to take a shot in metropolitan seats). The bonus fourth seat is a by-election caused by the retirement of former Treasurer Michael Aird. Labor’s new nominee is Derwent deputy mayor Craig Farrell.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,650 comments on “2011: episode one”

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  1. [GusfacePosted Monday, January 10, 2011 at 11:01 pm | Permalinkbemused
    um
    anyone who has half a brain and a quarter of a heart is danger to the faux labor peeps who litter PB’s streets

    maintain the rage, comrade
    ]

    As opposed to the other half of the brain being possessed by Greens Bulldust ??

  3. By the way, Leilani and Holiday Waggon both ran second, both were trained by genius Bart as well, and both were more fancied in the betting 🙁

  5. Bemused , gt it thru your head your bitternes against labor sheekes thru and greens is a politcal enemy of Labor as is Liberals , but of cousre th publicattacks on Greens by Lindsay Tanner , Senator , and Billy Shorten is inconvenient for youse just like greens sympathizer one line brain blogging cpacity Gusfaces

  7. [RonPosted Monday, January 10, 2011 at 11:04 pm | PermalinkBemused , gt it thru your head your bitternes against labor sheekes thru and greens is a politcal enemy of Labor as is Liberals , but of cousre th publicattacks on Greens by Lindsay Tanner , Senator , and Billy Shorten is inconvenient for youse just like greens sympathizer one line brain blogging cpacity Gusfaces
    ]

    That’s the spirit Ron – don’t let these pretenders get us down – The Greens are Wolves in Sheep’s clothing and should be treated as such.

  10. Frank @ 6407

    That’s the spirit Ron – don’t let these pretenders get us down – The Greens are Wolves in Sheep’s clothing and should be treated as such.

    And you and Ron are sheep in sheeps clothing.

  12. Gus @ 6408

    dont let the turkeys stop you soaring with eagles

    Don’t you get a bit bored engaging in intellectual combat with unarmed men?

  13. Finns
    Are you still around?

    Missed ya, been having dolphin withdrawals 😥

    You know what, I can’t ever recall watching the Indians play soccer!
    Aussies might be in with a chance there 😉

  14. [CentrePosted Monday, January 10, 2011 at 11:11 pm | PermalinkIs it true that St Bob was siding with Gerry Harvey to tax on-line goods?
    Surely not!
    ]

    He sure did – and on the same day they proclaimed they would ban large persdonal donations – iut was revealed the Greens recieved a $1 mllion plus donation from a businessman.

  17. Gus getting bored engaging in intellectual combat?

    I found my 7 year old nephew more intellectually challenging on Xmas day than St Facial!

  18. Gusface
    I can just imagine Iceland’s interior minister, Ogmundur Jonasson (great name) getting into his viking armour to receive the US ambassador, and choosing the long sword.

  19. Bemused

    if ou want to join that mousey green sympathizer gusfaces , traitors to labors cause, your bitter posts is doing a god job

    (BTW doubt you know lindsay seeing recent what he said public about ‘ greens having left wings retoric and rite wing outcomes ‘ , SEEING his private conserves is even hasher

  21. Centre

    “And don’t worry, the way global warming is going, humans will be walking around with a great big head, 2 great big eyes, and no body hair by the time any catastrophe to the planet comes to effect.”

    And

    “Gus getting bored engaging in intellectual combat?”

    Demonstrate that you are not engaging in intellectual combat, you are simply being strident.

  22. Frank @ 6414

    Wow! St Bob reckons there could be votes in it for him from the rich cause they are chicken shit of rising sea levels on their coastal line properties.

    So much for morals?

    And on the same day announcing that donations should be banned but happily accepting $1m.

    Hell, so much for the pure? I’m even feeling dirty over it 😆

  23. [I can just imagine Iceland’s interior minister, Ogmundur Jonasson (great name) getting into his viking armour to receive the US ambassador, and choosing the long sword.]

    Nah

    just send in the berserkers

    😉

  24. Anna Bligh just held a press conference. The situation in Queensland has become quite dire. Basically described the events at Toowoomba as an inland tsunami. She has described the current situation in Queensland as very grim.

  25. jaundiced view
    Posted Monday, January 10, 2011 at 11:17 pm | Permalink
    Gusface
    “I can just imagine Iceland’s (suport of Assange !!!) interior minister..”

    Iceland went broke thu corruption and lies & suports Assange ,
    a likeness to Assange who is too scared of proper court justise in Sweden

  26. I like the Greens’ policy on animal welfare, have the other parties got one? Maybe Labor could pinch the Greens’ policy on that one?

  29. All this rain, water everywhere!

    Might be time to build me an Ark for all my animal friends

    bugger you humans, you fight too much 👿

  30. Gusface , your green sympathizers dont get hidden by your incapacity to blogg more than one childish line , in mousy sqeek tones Assange is a fraud

  31. Ron, how can Assange be a fraud. All he does is relay what other’s give him.
    Are you dumb enough to believe he makes it up himself?

  32. Ron @ 6419

    (BTW doubt you know lindsay seeing recent what he said public about ‘ greens having left wings retoric and rite wing outcomes ‘ , SEEING his private conserves is even hasher

    Believe what you wish.
    The Greens are not the ALP therefore we campaign against them in elections. I certainly agree with Lindsay on that.

  34. Ron@6425

    [Iceland went broke thu corruption and lies & suports Assange ,
    a likeness to Assange who is too scared of proper court justise in Sweden]

    Maybe if there had been something like Wikileaks to let the people know what their government and banks were doing the country wouldn’t have gone broke.

  36. madcyril

    I have seen the footage. The Police Commissioner at the press conference with Anna Bligh described it as an inland tsunami. They have already conducted roof top rescues of 43 people, and bad weather has hampered any further rescues. It is really concerning.

  40. 6414 Frank Calabrese
    Posted Monday, January 10, 2011 at 11:14 pm | Permalink

    CentrePosted Monday, January 10, 2011 at 11:11 pm | PermalinkIs

    ‘it true that St Bob was siding with Gerry Harvey to tax on-line goods?
    Surely not! ‘

    ” He sure did – and on the same day they proclaimed they would ban large persdonal donations – iut was revealed the Greens recieved a $1 mllion plus donation from a businessman.”

    well why do not greens bloggers here ackowlege Bob Browns blatant hypocracy ,
    here’s a chanse for greens sympathizer gusface

  41. Re floods and insurance patments

    The great spate of natural disasters around the world…possibly related to climate changes..raises a long term question relating to insurance.in general…

    The great British authority Prof Lovelock says that the very survival of the insurance industry is now at stake. The industry itself sees this problems and many major companies are coming forward and seeing great problems for the future.

    We know of course that the insurance companies are very likely to rat on policies if they can….but what if they simply opted out of much damage insurances from natural circumstances…most of use could then face a wipe- out by a single incident…. a scary prospect,which Lovelock sees as threatening us all….so one might get insurance against robbery/theft.auto damage/ and fire…but not against any damage from weather ..so a flooded ceiling or damage from a falling tree to ones house would not be covered….

  45. Ron

    Why is that hypocritical? Currently the laws allow it, and they want to change it…

    Also
    ” He sure did – and on the same day they proclaimed they would ban large persdonal donations – iut was revealed the Greens recieved a $1 mllion plus donation from a businessman.”

    Do you have a link for this or is it something that is just been assumed.

  49. Confessions @ 6295,

    [Yes I can see that. I’m curious as to whether ‘Adams’ concerns are representative of people actually affected, or just one of those contrary, meaningless comments that appear in comment threads on blogs.]

    No, you’re not curious and my comments are about as meaningful as your ALP cheerleading ones.

  50. bemused
    Posted Monday, January 10, 2011 at 11:27 pm | Permalink
    Ron @ 6419

    (BTW doubt you know lindsay seeing recent what he said public about ‘ greens having left wings retoric and rite wing outcomes ‘ , SEEING his private conserves is even hasher

    “Believe what you wish.
    The Greens are not the ALP therefore we campaign against them in elections. I certainly agree with Lindsay on that.’

    he’s said a lot more han tht , lindsay is very clever , he saying Greens radicalisms and uneconamicness is making it toxic for left reform by a labor govt to th middle australien voter that generally is then scared off & can seek comfort of libs status quo watever its miinus’s , chek where votes of these has gone NOT just Fed ibut in latest Qld , NSW & WA pols This is a biggar picture then youse is eein

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