2011: episode one

Happy new year everybody. Limiting our brief to known knowns, we have the following entries in the 2011 electoral calendar.

• The NSW Labor government’s date for the electoral mincer is set for March 26. Mumble man Peter Brent has bravely ventured that Labor “will do better than opinion polls in 2010 said they would, perhaps emerging with around 30 out of 93 seats”. My tip is that this prediction of Brent’s won’t scrub up quite as nicely after the event as those he made in relation to Victoria.

• John Brumby’s exit from politics will result in a by-election in his ultra-safe northern Melbourne seat of Broadmeadows, probably in February or March. According to David Rood of The Age, early contenders for Labor preselection include “former Brumby adviser and Labor state secretary Nick Reece, former adviser to Steve Bracks and lobbyist Danny Pearson, Hume councillor Burhan Yigit, ex-Labor party officer and right-wing figure Mehmet Tillem, recently defeated Labor upper house MP Nathan Murphy and former Hobsons Bay Council mayor Bill Baarini”. One might surmise that other Victorian by-elections will follow before the year is through.

• Four of the 15 seats in Tasmania’s Legislative Council will become vacant this year, with elections almost certain to be held on May 7. These include two of the three seats held by Labor, with the other two being among the 11 held by independents (Vanessa Goodwin in Pembroke being the sole Liberal). In the normal course of events, two or three seats are on rotation to become vacant each year: this year is the turn of Launceston, Murchison and Rumney. Veteran independent Don Wing is retiring in Launceston, which will be constested for the Liberals by state party president Sam McQuestin. Sitting independent Ruth Forrest will seek another term in Murchison – she will be opposed by a Labor candidate in the person of Waratah-Wynyard mayor Kevin Hyland (UPDATE: Kevin Bonham in comments advises that Hyland is no longer a starter), but not by the Liberals. Labor’s Lin Thorp is up for re-election in Rumney, and I can find no mention of potential challengers (it’s not unknown for Legislative Council members to be returned unopposed, but the Greens at least can be relied upon to take a shot in metropolitan seats). The bonus fourth seat is a by-election caused by the retirement of former Treasurer Michael Aird. Labor’s new nominee is Derwent deputy mayor Craig Farrell.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,650 comments on “2011: episode one”

Comments Page 130 of 133
1 … 129 130 131 … 133

  1. [CentrePosted Monday, January 10, 2011 at 11:31 pm | PermalinkThe blaze – believed to be deliberately lit
    No vera, it was global warming
    ]

    Actually this one was deliberate – suss car spotted on the Forrest Highway, which was opened last year.

  3. Centre @ 6438

    The blaze – believed to be deliberately lit

    No vera, it was global warming 😉

    Surely the prizewinner for the dumbest comment of the evening!

  4. ruawake @ 6297,

    [Hello are you out there? Any response or was it just routine Gillard sniping?]

    Apologies for not telling the plumber to bugger off because some character on a blog wants an immediate response and yeah that’s right it was purely “routine Gillard sniping”.

    *sigh*

  5. victoria

    I sure wouldn’t like to have Anna’s job at present, seems like she’s out every day visiting flood areas (well it’s most of Qld isn’t it)
    Poor bugger looks worn out

  6. Ron

    “he saying Greens radicalisms and uneconamicness is making it toxic for left reform by a labor govt to th middle australien voter that generally is then scared off & can seek comfort of libs status quo watever its miinus’s , chek where votes of these has gone NOT just Fed ibut in latest Qld , NSW & WA pols This is a biggar picture then youse is eein”

    In other words Ron, you areincapable of discerning the difference between polical rhetoric and reality

  7. Gus,
    I don’t see why parties can’t learn from each other. I don’t see the Greens forming government in their own right any time soon. So if I want a progressive govt, and not Abbott, I want a Labor govt. But there are a lot of Greens policies I see a lot of sense in. Others are never going to cut it. Estate taxes I find quite odious, even if they did originate with Labor in the bygone years.

    Ron,
    I recognise worth where I see it. Most of the Greens policies are going to get at least one interest group or the other offside, but have intrinsic worth. The Greens may split the progressive vote, or they may pull both Labor and Liberal back from the right-ways lurch that has happened during the Howard reign. I think that as climate change bites, it will be the latter.

    Sorry this taking so long, I am typing one finger in almost dark.

  10. vera

    she certainly looks worn out. But this flood crisis appears to have taken a new deadly turn. Things have definitely become more serious. Peoples lives are now at very grave risk tonight.

  11. victoria,

    Sorry, for the delayed response, we have been getting intermittent rain but when it does rain it falls heavily and steadily for an hour or two. So far so good on the Northern Gold Coast. We look to be ok.

    Brisbane regions look aweful with some of the bridges under at record highs.

  12. Gusface@6423

    just send in the berserkers

    But wouldn’t our berserkers, those who (“(fight) in a nearly uncontrollable, trance-like fury”) on PB find it too stressful going so far away from party headquarters? 😆

  13. [GusfacePosted Monday, January 10, 2011 at 11:42 pm | PermalinkActually this one was deliberate – suss car spotted on the Forrest Highway, which was opened last year.
    ta for showing up centres extreme idiocy
    ]

    Even though it was deliberately lit – Global Warming is sure making the bugger harder to put out.

  15. SK

    There are serious concerns about Brisbane and Ipswich now, as well as the people that are stranded in the valley. As I just said, it appears that this flood crisis has worsened.

    Also to Joe and Dee hope all is well.

  16. Puff @ 6457

    Estate taxes I find quite odious, even if they did originate with Labor in the bygone years.

    Why?

    This is a great mechanism for producing a more equitable society, but should not apply to modest estates, only the wealthy.

    States used to all have it until Joh Bjelke Petersen abolished it and the other states were forced into matching.

  18. The current flood warnings for QLD

    Warnings current:
    Coastal Wind Warning 1,
    Severe Weather Warning 1,
    Severe Thunderstorm Warning – Queensland 1,
    Ocean Wind Warning from Fiji,
    Flood Warning – Fitzroy River,
    Flood Warning – Burnett River,
    Flood Warning – Coastal rivers – Maryborough to Gold Coast,
    Flood Warning – Mary River,
    Flood Warning – Sunshine Coast (Noosa etc.),
    Flood Warning – Stanley & Brisbane above Wivenhoe Dam,
    Flood Warning – Lockyer, Bremer, Warrill & Brisbane below Wivenhoe.,
    Flood Warning – Condamine-Balonne Rivers,
    Flood Warning – Macintyre/Weir,
    Flood Warning – Moonie River,
    Flood Warning – Thomson/Barcoo/Cooper Ck,

  19. bemused, beg to differ!

    I would have thought the prizewinner for the most sarcastic comment of the evening. Still coming from the left, happy to accept it.

  22. Frank @ 6463

    Even though it was deliberately lit – Global Warming is sure making the bugger harder to put out.

    Agree! But where does that leave your mate Centre?

  23. [There are serious concerns about Brisbane and Ipswich ]
    This is very worrying.
    [Also to Joe and Dee hope all is well.]
    Ditto.

  24. People who are caught lighting fires should pay for the damage. If they can’t pay, an amount should be deducted from their pay until they do!

  26. Centre @ 6469

    bemused, beg to differ!

    I would have thought the prizewinner for the most sarcastic comment of the evening. Still coming from the left, happy to accept it.

    And we all know that sarcasm is the lowest form of wit!

    Your self nomination is accepted. 👿

  27. Ron +++++++++++++++++++++

    Your endless and relentless pursuit of ..The Greens/Bob Brown./Assenge and others repeated over and over again.. is so silly and tedious that
    I… like many other readers of this blog …,now simply slide over your predictably silly and scarcely readable comments….

    If I’m reading your posts at all it is because they sometimes have a unintentional humour….
    ..tell me what did you mean in your comments about a Dragon ” having no room for green smoke “…and saying of another…that his bitter posts were ” doing a god job” “”
    …is this a religious comment ??
    I remain mystified…and I still believe that you are in fact a small team of under-graduate humourists taking the mickey out of us all( perhaps Frank is also a fictitous creation too !)…what a laugh we’ll all have when they reveal themselves to us..

  31. Astrobleme
    Posted Monday, January 10, 2011 at 11:39 pm | Permalink

    Ron, I found the link
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/wotif-a-rich-man-helped-the-greens-20110107-19ix2.html

    “Why is it hypocritical for the Greens to accept this and say that they’d like to change the rules? ”

    i already had th link already !
    that you should even ask a Q , says it about Bob browns sleesy hypocracy , happy top do one think and preach his BS moralistic ideas to normal aussies not caring if they lose there jobs from his flunky & uneconamic ideas

  32. Bemused

    yu continue to side with all th nutty idea ed greens debonalay , gus face , j/v , thats why you and greens sympathizer gusface is traitors to labors cause

  35. I remember Bob brown saying that Rudd should give back the old $4000 ute as it didn’t look good
    But a $mil donation to him is different
    Hypocrite 😛

  37. bemused @ 6472

    Those on the same side of politics may share differences. Surely, supposedly being a Labor member you can to relate to that.

  38. Ron @ 6482

    Bemused

    yu continue to side with all th nutty idea ed greens debonalay , gus face , j/v , thats why you and greens sympathizer gusface is traitors to labors cause

    Ron, I neither know nor particularly care if those you mention are Greens or anything else. I will respond to particular comments they may make and will at times agree and other times disagree.

    I even occasionally agree with some sense embedded in one of your rants.

    FYI, I have traditionally been associated with the right of the ALP but these days the party has shifted so much to the right it has left me well and truly on the left.

  39. Debonlay

    do want me to re-blogg your actual blatant lie , again about Labor enemys ?

    as for
    ‘tell me what did you mean in your comments about a Dragon ” having no room for green smoke “…

    you is a dikhead who missed th caravan , it was to Puff Magic Dragons blogger only & reply to his post and he could tell you

    (BTW as usual gus fface sits hidding in corner mousy sqeeking from a safe distanse i see

  40. Bemused,
    Taxes are paid during the earning of the money. To tax on death is double taxation. Also it is just, as I said, an odious tax. It also unfairly affects the poor as the rich can arrange their affairs, as they always did, to avoid paying it. (The chances of the limit staying at 5mill are slim. One whiff of a deficit and down comes the threshold until it is gone and everyone is paying it again.)

    It is the only good thing JBP did.

    It is attractive to think that the state can acquire a part of the enormous fortunes about to be passed on, but the reality is that those fortunes will just leave this country if we reintroduce estate taxes.

  41. [didn’t look good
    But a $mil donation to him is different
    Hypocrite ]

    as i said at the time- a bit icky

    but on the bright side scott will take over

    just dont tell that siren SHY

    ;(

  44. Bemused

    i see nort in your #6488 of a labor person, nor in some earlier posts trashing labor peoples frank & centre , espec after askin about Lindsay whose coments i do know , and whose most slants is & always been mine , tho as a brord church i dbate internel with othr more centre etc

  45. Today started sadly with news that Dalby was again flooded. It ended with at least 7 locals dead, hundreds of vehicles & several houses (Postman’s Ridge) swept up & away, the main part of the city flood damaged, even wrecked, massive inundation to the west & east as the deluge headed down roads-turned-rivers, flooding town after town …

    And a frog croaking. One. That’s about our “at a time” limit for the last 8 years. Though that may change after today.

    Stay safe Joe6P, Dee, SK, other PBers, relatives & friends … and all in Q, NSW, WA, NT caught up in the floods – or about to be.

    Seven dead as raging torrent swamps Toowoomba

    It’s still raining, with strong winds, with another bad day tomorrow.

    Good night all

  47. Gusface

    your OWN self created “PB truce that Greens polisys etc should not be attacked” , was BS and i told you to get stuffed and i’d post what i want about Greens polists etc , and i still do so showin quite blatant what you said was fake key bord strokes , so your ‘aleged agreemnet with w is same , BS

  49. Centre @ 6487

    Those on the same side of politics may share differences. Surely, supposedly being a Labor member you can to relate to that.

    Certainly, but what I cannot relate to is deliberate ignorance and denial of science. Your spiritual home is clearly the Republicans in the US or the far right fringe of the Liberal Party.

  50. Bed time
    Nite amigo Ron and bludgers

    Raining down here on the south coast but we haven’t got floods thank goodness

    Thinking positive thoughts for all those PBs affected by the floods

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 130 of 133
1 … 129 130 131 … 133