2011: episode one

Happy new year everybody. Limiting our brief to known knowns, we have the following entries in the 2011 electoral calendar.

• The NSW Labor government’s date for the electoral mincer is set for March 26. Mumble man Peter Brent has bravely ventured that Labor “will do better than opinion polls in 2010 said they would, perhaps emerging with around 30 out of 93 seats”. My tip is that this prediction of Brent’s won’t scrub up quite as nicely after the event as those he made in relation to Victoria.

• John Brumby’s exit from politics will result in a by-election in his ultra-safe northern Melbourne seat of Broadmeadows, probably in February or March. According to David Rood of The Age, early contenders for Labor preselection include “former Brumby adviser and Labor state secretary Nick Reece, former adviser to Steve Bracks and lobbyist Danny Pearson, Hume councillor Burhan Yigit, ex-Labor party officer and right-wing figure Mehmet Tillem, recently defeated Labor upper house MP Nathan Murphy and former Hobsons Bay Council mayor Bill Baarini”. One might surmise that other Victorian by-elections will follow before the year is through.

• Four of the 15 seats in Tasmania’s Legislative Council will become vacant this year, with elections almost certain to be held on May 7. These include two of the three seats held by Labor, with the other two being among the 11 held by independents (Vanessa Goodwin in Pembroke being the sole Liberal). In the normal course of events, two or three seats are on rotation to become vacant each year: this year is the turn of Launceston, Murchison and Rumney. Veteran independent Don Wing is retiring in Launceston, which will be constested for the Liberals by state party president Sam McQuestin. Sitting independent Ruth Forrest will seek another term in Murchison – she will be opposed by a Labor candidate in the person of Waratah-Wynyard mayor Kevin Hyland (UPDATE: Kevin Bonham in comments advises that Hyland is no longer a starter), but not by the Liberals. Labor’s Lin Thorp is up for re-election in Rumney, and I can find no mention of potential challengers (it’s not unknown for Legislative Council members to be returned unopposed, but the Greens at least can be relied upon to take a shot in metropolitan seats). The bonus fourth seat is a by-election caused by the retirement of former Treasurer Michael Aird. Labor’s new nominee is Derwent deputy mayor Craig Farrell.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,650 comments on “2011: episode one”

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  1. Puff @ 6596,

    [I am very angry still that the Greens ran in enough marginal Labor seats to almost give Abbott the Lodge, but I recognise they are in a position to deliver a Labor progressive agenda from July 2011. The Indies will provide the necessary brakes IMO, because anything outrageous, like estate taxes or uncosted social policies, won’t get past them and into the senate.

    As with the Wotif donation, slowly the realisation of the pragmatic mechanics of government, the horse-trading and compromise necessary, will come.]

    The Greens are their own party. They can run in whatever seat they like and you could make the argument if not for the Greens the ALP would probably be in opposition. Forget the Greens we’ll see how many times the ALP sideline the Greens by gaining the support from the Libs. IMO, that’s when we will all see how close those two parties really are.

    Don’t forget Puff it was Kevin Rudd who refused to speak to Bob Brown for the last 12 months of his prime ministership which included the whole ETS debacle. If one party isn’t willing to negotiate how the hell could they expect support from another?

  3. just for the record

    [ ruawake
    Posted Sunday, January 9, 2011 at 6:46 pm | Permalink
    I mean as opposed to the sledging that was going on between Ruawake and Gusface, for instance.

    Wot? Gus and I were having a cordial discussion of differing points of view. ]

  4. Frank @ 6594,

    [The Age article for a start, plus Bob Brown’s comments about Kevin Rudd returning the Ute, while Bob Brown recieved a cash donation from Dick Smith to avoid bankruptecy and the possibibilty of losing his seanate seat.]

    What were wrong about BB comments re: Rudd and the ute? Like Puff has already pointed out that donation from Dick Smith had nothing to do with the Greens.

  7. [AdamPosted Tuesday, January 11, 2011 at 1:45 am | PermalinkFrank @ 6594,
    The Age article for a start, plus Bob Brown’s comments about Kevin Rudd returning the Ute, while Bob Brown recieved a cash donation from Dick Smith to avoid bankruptecy and the possibibilty of losing his seanate seat.
    What were wrong about BB comments re: Rudd and the ute? Like Puff has already pointed out that donation from Dick Smith had nothing to do with the Greens.
    ]

    and neither did the donation of the ute to the ALP.

    It was a personal donation to an individual candidate.

    Get it ?

  10. Frank @ 6607,

    [and neither did the donation of the ute to the ALP.

    It was a personal donation to an individual candidate.

    Get it ?]

    and what is your point exactly? I can’t remember the details but wasn’t the guy who donated the ute to Rudd trying to win some government contract or benefit?

  11. Astrodoome , Denbonlay , Adam , youse greens ned to look at reality facts showing brown and greens quadie hypocasy , now sams dont change this

    vera
    Posted Monday, January 10, 2011 at 11:59 pm | Permalink

    1/ “I remember Bob brown saying that Rudd should give back the old $4000 ute as it
    didn’t look good
    2/ BUT a $MIL donation to him is different
    Hypocrite ”

    no gusface not your words of “a bit icky” , pssweak
    Brown guilty of gross hypocacy

    and then turned into contemptable hypocasy
    3/ re his Dick Smith MILLION dolar “donation” , and by then
    4/ saying he suports limits on politcal donations !

  12. [AdamPosted Tuesday, January 11, 2011 at 1:53 am | PermalinkFrank @ 6607,
    and neither did the donation of the ute to the ALP.
    It was a personal donation to an individual candidate.
    Get it ?
    and what is your point exactly? I can’t remember the details but wasn’t the guy who donated the ute to Rudd trying to win some government contract or benefit?
    ]

    no 🙂

  14. Adam,
    [Don’t forget Puff it was Kevin Rudd who refused to speak to Bob Brown for the last 12 months of his prime ministership which included the whole ETS debacle.]

    Yes, Rudd should have consulted with BB on the ETS, being that it was a major Greens platform and they had him by his cojones. I also think Rudd spent too much time wedging the Coals with it; he ended up with dealing with Abbott and a pool of peed off Greens. But considering what the Greens did at the last election maybe Rudd’s compass was not too far out.

    Not that I am sad that ETS went the way it did in any case. By the time it got to the senate it was a horse designed by committee anyway. The Greens did Labor a favour on that one I think; maybe not the planet but Labor, anyway.

    You could make the argument that but for the Greens, Labor would be in opposition but I would hope I am not that foolish.

    Yes, the Greens can run in any seat they like. As they blatantly proved they could. And in doing so almost gave us PM Abbott. Do not duck it or twist it. Wear it. I like a lot of the Greens stuff, and the things they do, but that was below the belt for all progressive aspirants. The Greens did it, it was pragmatic. like accepting the $xyz donation. Man up to it, your are playing in the big sandpit now.

  15. RE my take on the donations.
    To be clear.
    $ from Dick Smith to BB, personal, nothing to do with greens, non issue.
    Ute to Kevin Rudd’s campaign. All disclosure procedures followed. Normal practice for all parties. No conflict of interest. Non-issue.

  16. Further to 6615.
    Accepting Wotif donation. Pragmatic, understandable, legal, ethically somewhere on a scale from Icky to Outrageous. I am probably at Ickrageous.

    Greens running in marginal Labor seats. Legal, not pragmatic, reprehensibly irresponsible and damned lucky the dice fell favourably for the progressive cause in Australia.

  17. EXTRA $$$ facts for Astrodoome , Denbonlay , Adam , Gusface , Greens sympathizers or more down playing reality facts showin Bob Brown and Greens Party quadie hypocasy

    vera
    Posted Monday, January 10, 2011 at 11:59 pm | Permalink

    1/ “I remember Bob brown saying that Rudd should give back the old $4000 ute as it
    didn’t look good

    2/ BUT a $MIL donation to him is different
    Hypocrite ”

    (G Wood ‘gave to Greens $1.6 MILLION , almost certainly the LARGEST single political donation by an individual in Australian history. )

    “no gusface not your words of Quote “a bit icky” , pssweak

    Brown guilty of gross hypocacy
    and then turned into contemptable hypocasy “

    3/ re his Dick Smith MILLION dolar “donation” in addition to 1.6 Mill from g Wood) ,
    and by then

    4/ saying he suports limits on politcal donations !

  18. Gwenneth,

    Brisbane’s main airport is Eagle Farm. It is in the North-Eastern part of Brisbane. Its elevation is 5m ASL and it is very close to the mouth of the river.

    If you have Google Earth check it out there.

    There is also a smaller airfield at Archerfield which is South, a long way from the river.

  19. [re his Dick Smith MILLION dolar “donation”]
    Ron, that was not a donation to the greens. And there is nothing wrong with the ute and BB should have kept his nose out of it.

  21. Puff @ 6614,

    [Yes, Rudd should have consulted with BB on the ETS, being that it was a major Greens platform and they had him by his cojones. I also think Rudd spent too much time wedging the Coals with it; he ended up with dealing with Abbott and a pool of peed off Greens. But considering what the Greens did at the last election maybe Rudd’s compass was not too far out.

    Not that I am sad that ETS went the way it did in any case. By the time it got to the senate it was a horse designed by committee anyway. The Greens did Labor a favour on that one I think; maybe not the planet but Labor, anyway.

    You could make the argument that but for the Greens, Labor would be in opposition but I would hope I am not that foolish.

    Yes, the Greens can run in any seat they like. As they blatantly proved they could. And in doing so almost gave us PM Abbott. Do not duck it or twist it. Wear it. I like a lot of the Greens stuff, and the things they do, but that was below the belt for all progressive aspirants. The Greens did it, it was pragmatic. like accepting the $xyz donation. Man up to it, your are playing in the big sandpit now.]

    I agree on the whole ETS debacle. Rudd was more concerned with trying to wedge Turnbull & the Libs with “the greatest moral challenge of our time”. It blew up in his face completely. Plus the ALP had caved in to the lobbyists so much the thing would’ve basically have been pointless.

    The Greens know all about the big sandpit and were reminded of that first hand with the PM’s sidelining of Bob Brown. I still think you’re looking at things from an ALP perspective though in regards to “trying to take the ALP’s seats”. You consider it below the belt I consider it the morally right thing to do given how little the ALP thinks of progressives.

  25. [You consider it below the belt I consider it the morally right thing to do given how little the ALP thinks of progressives.]
    The difference is I count the ALP as a progressive party.

    As I said, maybe Kevin judged BB and the Greens correctly, that political advantage would trump the greater good when the chips be down, and so it turned out.

  26. [ aus_politics Australian Politics
    West to receive equal aid funds: Flood victims in Western Australia’s Gascoyne region are now likely to receive … http://bit.ly/hKuv5z
    2 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply ]

    [Acting Premier Kim Hames said yesterday the government had asked for the maximum $15,000 allowed under the Natural Disaster Relief and Recovery guidelines, without knowing Queensland would receive more.
    He has now written to Ms Gillard and said he was “fairly certain” the imbalance would be redressed.
    ]

  30. [Adam
    Posted Tuesday, January 11, 2011 at 1:53 am | Permalink

    and what is your point exactly? I can’t remember the details but wasn’t the guy who donated the ute to Rudd trying to win some government contract or benefit?]

    The guy wasn’t doing anything at all remember. It was the Godwin Gretch lets try and oust a PM with fake slanderous emails affair, magnificantly supported by the coalition frontbench until it went pear shaped and they left poor Malcolm holding the bag.

  32. [6630 Paul_JPosted Tuesday, January 11, 2011 at 2:32 am | PermalinkAdam
    Posted Tuesday, January 11, 2011 at 1:53 am | Permalink
    and what is your point exactly? I can’t remember the details but wasn’t the guy who donated the ute to Rudd trying to win some government contract or benefit?
    The guy wasn’t doing anything at all remember. It was the Godwin Gretch lets try and oust a PM with fake slanderous emails affair, magnificantly supported by the coalition frontbench until it went pear shaped and they left poor Malcolm holding the bag.
    ]

    Yup, just like tonight’s attempt by Adam 🙂

  36. Puff @ 6625,

    [The difference is I count the ALP as a progressive party.

    As I said, maybe Kevin judged BB and the Greens correctly, that political advantage would trump the greater good when the chips be down, and so it turned out.]

    Okay I certainly don’t consider the ALP a progressive party anymore and I think that’s been confirmed in spades over the past 18 months.

    Aside from things like the backdown on the ETS, the mandatory internet filter, the Citizen’s Assembly, intending to bring in welfare quarantining nationwide, the suspension of applications for asylum seekers from Afghanistan & Sri Lanka in an election year, the backdown on the original mining tax, East Timor off-shore processing etc The one thing that always sticks in my mind is that David Bradbury footage in the NT.

  37. Well he was the one getting dumped on. I might not agree with all the greens policies but that seemed a bit over the top.

  39. Paul J @ 6630,

    [The guy wasn’t doing anything at all remember. It was the Godwin Gretch lets try and oust a PM with fake slanderous emails affair, magnificantly supported by the coalition frontbench until it went pear shaped and they left poor Malcolm holding the bag.]

    I’ll take your word for it. I really don’t care if Rudd was just doing a mate a solid (to quote Jim Carrey from The Cable Guy) or not. I didn’t pay too much attention to it due to the amount of squealing from News Ltd. I thought the whole Grech things was an attempt to “confirm” some shenanigans in that there was supposed evidence until it was deemed a fraud.

  41. Adam,
    [I didn’t pay too much attention to it due to the amount of squealing from News Ltd.]
    Then you don’t know what you are talking about then?

  42. Puff @ 6641,

    [Then you don’t know what you are talking about then?]

    When have I said I did? The whole thing didn’t interest me in the slightest.

    btw in regards to your 6640, what progressive agenda do the ALP supposedly have in mind? The Greens & the Indis are the ones trying to pull them back from the cliff face in their attempts to swan dive into oblivion.

  43. [Adam
    Posted Tuesday, January 11, 2011 at 2:46 am | Permalink

    Paul J @ 6630,

    I thought the whole Grech things was an attempt to “confirm” some shenanigans in that there was supposed evidence until it was deemed a fraud.]

    The shenanigans were a figment in poor fragile Godwins mind as he saw himself a bit of a player. Investigations turned up fake emails purportedly containing requests for favours for Rudds mate who loaned him the car.
    There was no favours, in fact Rudds mate along with many others had applied for some kind of assistence after the GFC and was knocked back by Swan.

    Gretch should have faced criminal charges and Turnbull,Robb,Hockey and the rest of them should have been made to give an official account of what they knew in front of a judge.

    cheers

  44. @ Puff

    I think you are a bit off regarding the timing off the Gretch affair and the deal on the ETS. Labor really sunk the boot into Malcolm on the final day of sitting after Gretch was exposed. I remember Tanner even mentioning cats …. which is off limits I believe. Poor Malcolm was exasperated and his appeals to Harry fell on deaf ears almost.

  45. Paul J @ 6643,

    [The shenanigans were a figment in poor fragile Godwins mind as he saw himself a bit of a player. Investigations turned up fake emails purportedly containing requests for favours for Rudds mate who loaned him the car.
    There was no favours, in fact Rudds mate along with many others had applied for some kind of assistence after the GFC and was knocked back by Swan.

    Gretch should have faced criminal charges and Turnbull,Robb,Hockey and the rest of them should have been made to give an official account of what they knew in front of a judge.]

    Yeah I remember most of that just not the detail in to the ute from Rudd’s mate. I agree Grech should’ve faced criminal charges but he pulled the “stop! or Godwin gets it” defence didn’t he? Has anything come of it or is he still supposedly too mentally ill to be charged or whatever? It’s probably not even worth it trying to nail him, his career is shot.

  46. Godwin got off as the DPP has said they won’t be pursuing charges due to his ill health.

    As for the ute well it was just an old Rodeo or something like that quite old and not worth much. It was loaned to Rudd to be used for his re election campaign which wasn’t a problem until the fake emails turned up and the coalition thought they had Rudd on a plater.

    Turnbulls popularity went down to 14% whilst Rudds was at 74% at the same time I think as well.

  48. SINCE my #6617 qu0ting him accurate
    gusface is since claiming slander
    but my @ 6617 quoted what he actualy said in b & W in his 6491

    and th LARGEST politcal donation in oz history (to th Greens) deserves clarity

  49. ‘ As for the ute well it was just an old Rodeo or something like that quite old and not worth much. It was loaned to Rudd to be used for his re election campaign which wasn’t a problem until the fake (Grech) emails turned up and the coalition thought they had Rudd on a plater. ‘

    “I remember Bob brown saying that Rudd should give back the old $4000 ute as it
    didn’t look good”

    espec after Bob Brown taking a 1.6 million donation from G Wood ! , largest ever ,

    and then Bob Brown saying politcal donations should be limited !

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