2011: episode one

Happy new year everybody. Limiting our brief to known knowns, we have the following entries in the 2011 electoral calendar.

• The NSW Labor government’s date for the electoral mincer is set for March 26. Mumble man Peter Brent has bravely ventured that Labor “will do better than opinion polls in 2010 said they would, perhaps emerging with around 30 out of 93 seats”. My tip is that this prediction of Brent’s won’t scrub up quite as nicely after the event as those he made in relation to Victoria.

• John Brumby’s exit from politics will result in a by-election in his ultra-safe northern Melbourne seat of Broadmeadows, probably in February or March. According to David Rood of The Age, early contenders for Labor preselection include “former Brumby adviser and Labor state secretary Nick Reece, former adviser to Steve Bracks and lobbyist Danny Pearson, Hume councillor Burhan Yigit, ex-Labor party officer and right-wing figure Mehmet Tillem, recently defeated Labor upper house MP Nathan Murphy and former Hobsons Bay Council mayor Bill Baarini”. One might surmise that other Victorian by-elections will follow before the year is through.

• Four of the 15 seats in Tasmania’s Legislative Council will become vacant this year, with elections almost certain to be held on May 7. These include two of the three seats held by Labor, with the other two being among the 11 held by independents (Vanessa Goodwin in Pembroke being the sole Liberal). In the normal course of events, two or three seats are on rotation to become vacant each year: this year is the turn of Launceston, Murchison and Rumney. Veteran independent Don Wing is retiring in Launceston, which will be constested for the Liberals by state party president Sam McQuestin. Sitting independent Ruth Forrest will seek another term in Murchison – she will be opposed by a Labor candidate in the person of Waratah-Wynyard mayor Kevin Hyland (UPDATE: Kevin Bonham in comments advises that Hyland is no longer a starter), but not by the Liberals. Labor’s Lin Thorp is up for re-election in Rumney, and I can find no mention of potential challengers (it’s not unknown for Legislative Council members to be returned unopposed, but the Greens at least can be relied upon to take a shot in metropolitan seats). The bonus fourth seat is a by-election caused by the retirement of former Treasurer Michael Aird. Labor’s new nominee is Derwent deputy mayor Craig Farrell.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,650 comments on “2011: episode one”

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  2. Yes, the high dollar is holding back our market. Although signs are encouraging that the US is albeit slowly but surely back on track which should eventually see the AUD settle at around 89 to 93 cents by years end.

    What about the Bludgers making the prediction that the US will finish the year the same way as Greece? Holy Greenland! 😆

    And don’t worry, the way global warming is going, humans will be walking around with a great big head, 2 great big eyes, and no body hair by the time any catastrophe to the planet comes to effect.

  3. Puff Pretzels fine, scotch low but have back ups.:)

    Confess . i.m sorry to hear that but seems to be more common. now.

    good night all thanks for diversions. QLD is in for a rough night by the looks

  4. RH

    I have seen over many years that there are arrogant, ignorant racist who people think that casual contempt is normal and acceptable.

    If other people really want a parallel then have a look at the furore that arises whenever there is some graffiti on the War Memorial.

    For Indigenous people, there is no restitution, no going back, and no undoing of trashing a sacred site. There is no forgiveness, as I understand it because it is unforgiveable. And the repercussions go not to the trasher but to the people who are deemed to have failed in their duty of care of the sacred site: the traditional owners.

    It is time some people learned respect. And if can’t be learned through a proper understanding of others’ values, then let it be learned through fear of the consequences. That is why the Act is in place. That is why the Act should be enforced.

  9. Puff, the Magic Dragon.@6349

    JV
    Maybe it sends a message to the Aboriginal people there that we do not care much.

    Dangerous territory for a magistrate to ignore penalty guidelines in order to send a message of sympathy.

    This sort of offence has occurred before, so there must be an historical list of penalties depending on the seriousness into which the recent one would fit. That’s what magistrates go by. It isn’t something new. Again, we have to know everything the court did before we can say the penalty was too light. If it is demonstrably too light it can be appealed.

  10. on a more serious note, just bought something for a $50 discount @ $400 (over internet but from within Aus) which I saw in NY for just over half that! Although I wouldnt have wanted to lug it all the way here, or pay the $100 to post it here, so I guess there is no choice.

  11. It seems to have been a pretty slow news period over the last week or so. Where are all the good leaks that we were supposedly going to be informed of dating way back to 1966?

    Oh it’s going just as good Wikileaks!

    I’m glad I sold out at the highs.

    Poor St Gus, he is still to side on the winning side of an issue on PB. That would make Gus the longest running virgin in PB history. 😆

  12. [That firm involved will not do it again after the publicity, and other firms working in such areas are very much on notice, which is something that might be taken into account next time someone stuffs up. ]

    On the contrary, jv, this decision sends the message that the penalty for damaging an important, registered, sign-posted sacred site is not much more than that for failing to wear a seatbelt in the NT.

  17. [Poor St Gus, he is still to side on the winning side of an issue on PB. That would make Gus the longest running virgin in PB history. ]

    funny as lymphoma, Centre

    🙁

  18. [GusfacePosted Monday, January 10, 2011 at 10:20 pm | PermalinkPoor St Gus, he is still to side on the winning side of an issue on PB. That would make Gus the longest running virgin in PB history.
    funny as lymphoma, Centre

    ]

    But oh so true 🙂

  22. night Boerwar.

    C’mon Gussie, don’t prove Frank right. You’re (Greens) good at dishing it out but can’t hack it back at you!

  23. [6371 Think BigPosted Monday, January 10, 2011 at 10:27 pm | Permalinkfunny as lymphoma, Centre
    Tea Partyers have an appalling sense of humour Gus.

    ]

    Centre is anything but a Tea Partyer.

    and your comment applies equally to sanctimonious Greens and their pretender followers.

  27. [Centre is anything but a Tea Partyer.]

    Really? I thought that’s where he got his daily-dose of climate-change denial from before he serves it up for us each night?

  28. Boerwar
    Posted Monday, January 10, 2011 at 10:18 pm | Permalink

    RH
    “It’s called contempt by the Court.”

    no its called contempt by you and Rod hagen for th Court only cause youse dont like th decisoin , but you not seen full court transcript on whichs a ruling was made

    (BTW A chalenge is always open to anothr Court , and pray tell you is paying for all the
    legal sharks over a dunny thay may not been bad or altern a porta loo brings into areas

  29. [he is a “Truthy” with intellectual pretentions]

    Intellectual pretensions?

    Is that what you call people who either disagree with you, or more to the point, who don’t fall for your Green’s nonsensical rhetorical spin!

  30. One of the great things of living in a caring society is that when some natural disaster hits the society through its caring nature will help you cope in the short term.

    Of course one of the down sides of living in that same society is that some people will see you getting help and begrudge you it because they aren’t getting the same from the government.

    My best wishes to those in the wet tonight and the next few weeks, stay safe.

  31. [I wonder if cuppa is a tea partier]

    Amigo, where have you been hiding?

    we cant beat India in cricket (they are NoL 1 still) but we are going to trash them in the real football tomorrow morning in The Asia cup that we will host in 2015.

  34. Think Big, nothing has changed. I still don’t like Think Big!

    In 74 I backed Leilani and in 75 Holiday Waggon. The teacher let me listen to the race hiding under the desk. 🙂

    But the difference is where I couldn’t beat the equine version, you are a pushover.

  35. Centre @ 6379

    Is that what you call people who either disagree with you, or more to the point, who don’t fall for your Green’s nonsensical rhetorical spin!

    FYI, I am not a Green and never have been.
    I am a proud member of the ALP and can identify that you position yourself with the Climate change denialists led by Tony Abbott.

  37. I mean the logical commonsense of the Greens is astounding!

    On one hand they reject action on CC that was agreed to by both major parties with support of around 92% of the electorate, yet on the other they want to jeopardise our economy, industry, employment and cost of living to put pressure on the US to take serious action on CC.

    Fair dinkum deluded 😎

  38. There are flash floods expected here in Victoria. Meanwhile the flood crisis in Qld is worsening. Hope all you Queenslanders are managing okay.
    My thoughts are with you.

  39. Bemused
    #6385

    you no labor person , your gutter logic that every person on oz who votes labor has to beleive in cc and if they dont depite them voting labor that males makes them an Abbott

    you is a bitter labor person and relic
    and it seems youse do not like greens (as well ss Libs ) being attacked eithr , get used to it

  42. No bemused, as I have already stated, I am not a denialist. I believe in the best action in Australia’s best interests.

    And do you know something (Rudd 😀 ) so does Combet, so we will see who is right by years end!

  43. Centre

    Greens is aka OGN
    One “Green” Nation , Greens is so far into left lu la radical lands , they make Pauline Hanson look like a moderate , in th middle of politcal spectrum

  45. Ron @ 6389

    you is a bitter labor person and relic
    and it seems youse do not like greens (as well ss Libs ) being attacked eithr , get used to it

    It may have escaped you but I attack Liberals. I will also attack Greens when they pursue stupid ideas.
    Get it through your head that Liberals are the main opposition and Greens are currently allies of the ALP Govt to some extent.

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