Newspoll: 50-50

The latest Newspoll has the two-party vote at 50-50, after an anomalous 52-48 in Labor’s favour a fortnight ago. Labor has 34 per cent of the vote, the Coalition 41 per cent and the Greens 14 per cent. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full Newspoll results here. The Labor lead from a fortnight ago may have proved ephemeral, but the improvement in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings has mostly stuck: her approval is down a point to 45 per cent and her disapproval up one to 38 per cent, while her lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly from 54-31 to 52-32. Tony Abbott’s approval is steady on 42 per cent and his disapproval is down two to 43 per cent. On climate change, scepticism is found to have fallen since February but rise since July 2009, belief having gone from 84 per cent to 73 per cent to 77 per cent and non-belief from 12 per cent to 22 per cent to 18 per cent. When it was put to respondents that the federal government’s carbon pricing plans could lead to higher energy costs, 47 per cent said they remained in favour while 49 per cent were against.

Some bedtime thoughts from George Megalogenis in Quarterly Essay:

I know I’m whistling in the wind, but wouldn’t it be nice if Newspoll were to go back to one poll per month? The Australian’s survey of federal voting intensions went fortnightly in 1992 and Newspoll made its reputation in the following year’s election by picking the late swing to Labor. Don’t change what works, right? Unfortunately, two Newspolls per month throughout a term provide too much temptation for mischief. Every half-smart backbencher can pull together a spreadsheet to show why their boss should be rolled. Lobby groups just have to wait for a couple of bad polls before they put the squeeze on government.

It may be coincidence, of course, but there has been a dizzying turnover of political leadership talent since Newspoll went fortnightly. The Liberals were the first Opposition to have three leaders in a term between 1993 and 1996. The man in the middle, Alexander Downer, was the first major-party leader not to contest a federal election. On the Labor side, Simon Crean was pulled down at the end of 2003, before he could face the people in the follwing year. Labor also had three leaders between 2004 and 2007. But these were mere dress rehearsals for the chaos of the past three years, when a first-term government had two prime ministers and a first-term Opposition had three leaders. The trend is clearly accelerating.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,956 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. Rosa I agree with u completely up to your point about leadership the public have no roll in selecting the leader of a party in Australia it is none of their business.

    But I think in essence we agree because the power brokers said to the Aust people by selecting keV that ‘you should make him pm’. We did then they said ‘oh oops we were wrong he is a bad pm – tricked you – but they never get called on their choice it is without responsibility. For the powerbrokers outside parliament they don’t even risk their own job.

  2. [Thanks for posting link to Political Sword]

    Always a good read, victoria. I used to read AA’s earlier site and was pleased when he came back with PS. A pretty genuine bloke, I’d say.

  4. SK @ 3810

    [ Assange wants information disseminated based on fact. ]

    I love the ideals espoused by Wikileaks, but question whether what we have seen so far advances those ideals any significant distance. So far, most of the ‘information’ seems to be bitchy but honest behind-the-hand comments about the personalities of various leaders and ministers, but do they tell us anything we didn’t already know? What this latest batch of documents shows us is that, presuming a degree of secrecy, diplomatic officials often tell the unvarnished truth. A refreshing change from the usual political spin, actually.

  6. BH

    I understand the principle. If it works, it’s the first thing Mar’n has done that I might support, but I’m already tired of seeing Oprah on every TV screen.
    Story that an Aussie fan sold her house to get the money to try to get onto Oprah’s program. Yuck.

  7. victoria@3835

    what was reported in today’s Fairfax papers re Rudd and Afghanistan was truly a big yawn.

    Depends on how you view it.

    I have been disappointed that what little discussion there has been here on that leak has centred on it being an attack on Rudd, and not an examination of what he said, and the implications of that.

    Sure, most long ago concluded the whole Afghanistan adventure was dumb, or at least became so from the time eyes were taken off the ball in the mad rush to Baghdad. But with this cable we now have positive proof in the words of the then Prime Minister of Australia, not merely opinion, that we are wasting lives and treasure with no chance of success in our aims and that the government knows it. Therefore the time has become for debate on how we get the hell outta there before another Digger’s life is wasted.

    IMHO, if Wikileaks doesn’t produce another cable about Australia, it has been worthwhile.

    It’ll be interesting if the implications of that one cable are going to change anything. If it doesn’t then that will say a lot more about us as a people than it does Wikileaks.

  8. [Read Shanahan’s column in today’s OO.]

    confessions – I can’t bring myself to open it. Can I get down on my knees and ask you to ‘pleeze exploin’.

  9. Poss’s tweets make for fun reading about it, confessions

    [# @franklinmatthew Yes, we do disagree – but only one of us actually has the professional skills here to know what we are talking about. about 3 hours ago via TweetDeck in reply to franklinmatthew

    @franklinmatthew When they say “event X caused movement Y” in polls,it shows the exact level of ignorance each of them posses about polling about 3 hours ago via TweetDeck in reply to franklinmatthew

    @franklinmatthew Two blokes arguing in print over which of their respective fictions is more accurate isn’t unseemly – it’s embarrassing about 4 hours ago via TweetDeck in reply to franklinmatthew]

    https://twitter.com/pollytics

    Franklin is now trying to win against Poss – fat chance he’s got!!

  10. confessions

    I really want wikileaks to detail cables relating to the lead up to the Iraq war. I have been saying for ages, and Tim Dunlop reminds us in his piece, that the msm failed spectactularly with the case for war and the prosecution of the war thereafter. The msm are still failing us now. Where is the analysis of our involvement in the war. The cost of our involvement, and whether it was justified. They are mute. Today we get this drivel about Rudd. What an absolute disgrace. We are subjected to a daily dose of utter bullshit. The media gets a huge F from me.

  11. BH:

    Shanahan basically disagrees with Cassidy’s stuff in his book about when Rudd’s polling started to tank. You aern’t missing much!

  12. [Story that an Aussie fan sold her house to get the money to try to get onto Oprah’s program. Yuck.]

    lizzie – double yuck, if true. Perhaps said fan is looking for Oprah to hear the story and bail her out! cynical, aren’t I.

    Sometimes being FTA free is a huge bonus. We get to see BBC and CNN, Al Jazeera, etc. instead. We do get ABC1&2 plus SBS on Austar and put up with Sky for a lot of Oz content if we miss the other news because we can watch it later on multiview. SBS news is best I think.

  13. OPT

    [Wikileaks has revealed nothing that the USA diplomatic & security services did not make available to between 3,000,000 and 6,000,000 (they appear to be not sure which) people, via the Internet, many of them of the lowest rank of their respective services! And expected every one of those 3-6 million not to copy, email or otherwise cache and/or pass on that info!

    3-6 MILLION, FFS! How much dumber & incompetent can a government get?

    No wonder the world’s political & foreign affairs leaders – inc Kevin Rudd – are furious!]

    Agree. For me, this has been the most amazing revelation of all, moreso than any of the leaks or responses by the governments.

  18. victoria,

    It will come. I think we eventually will be dropped into a story of governments telling huge porkies worldwide about the wars, the GFC and probably about a few things were thought they were actually being upfront about.

    The real story won’t be in the individual missives but in the overarching story that is drawn when you join the dots between key cables at key points in history.

  19. Can anyone explain to me how Oakes can win the Walkley for picking up the phone when a leaker rings and then just repeating what he was told in the paper?

    Does that take some particular skill of which I am unaware?

    Couldn’t any idiot do that?

  21. [And it is the charge of bias that has ultimately become the battle ground between the MSM and their readers. The media still clings to the notion that they are above the fray, and they base their institutional standing on their alleged disinterested observation of the world (“we report, you decide”). The audience laughs in their face.

    We all – journalists and audience – need a much better understanding of what bias means.

    Journalists need to understand that coming down on one side of the argument after examining the facts is not the same thing as allowing a pre-exisiting political preference to determine which facts you present.

    Consumers are right to chastise journalists for the latter, but have to learn to cut them some slack for the former.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/42018.html

    confessions – how right Tim Dunlop throughout this whole article. None of us mind our side being criticised, analysed and held to account as long as it is done from a non-biassed view.

    He’s right to say that Mega has only gone half way in his Essay – but I guess George still wants a job in 6 months’ time.

    PBers – a good read.

  22. Who decides the Walkleys? Is it the other journos? Didn’t someone say yesterday that Oakes is held in deep respect by them all? There’s your answer. If I repeat what is leaked to me – duh? If Oakes says it – govt in crisis.

  23. SK

    I assume he would have confirmed the report with a second source.

    Seems like all he had to do was ring the US Embassy to find out if it was true.

  25. [Does that take some particular skill of which I am unaware?]

    Dio – his journo mates say that it was the surprise of the unexpected questionsto JG at the Press Club that made him the hero. According to them Julia was so gobsmacked that he, singlehandedly, blew Labor out of the water and she has been tainted forever.

  26. BH,

    With all the wikileak cables, those lazy journo’s will never have to do much more than log into wikileaks for the rest of their careers! Walkley here I come! 😈

  29. [The full set consists of 251,287 documents, comprising 261,276,536 words (seven times the size of “The Iraq War Logs”, the world’s previously largest classified information release).

    The cables cover from 28th December 1966 to 28th February 2010 and originate from 274 embassies, consulates and diplomatic missions]

    There has to be some juicy stuff in these releases as it’s going back to the start of the Vietnam war.

  30. morewest@3857

    victoria@3835

    what was reported in today’s Fairfax papers re Rudd and Afghanistan was truly a big yawn.

    Depends on how you view it.

    I have been disappointed that what little discussion there has been here on that leak has centred on it being an attack on Rudd, and not an examination of what he said, and the implications of that.

    Sure, most long ago concluded the whole Afghanistan adventure was dumb, or at least became so from the time eyes were taken off the ball in the mad rush to Baghdad. But with this cable we now have positive proof in the words of the then Prime Minister of Australia, not merely opinion, that we are wasting lives and treasure with no chance of success in our aims and that the government knows it. Therefore the time has become for debate on how we get the hell outta there before another Digger’s life is wasted.

    IMHO, if Wikileaks doesn’t produce another cable about Australia, it has been worthwhile.

    It’ll be interesting if the implications of that one cable are going to change anything. If it doesn’t then that will say a lot more about us as a people than it does Wikileaks.

    Marius Benson interviewed Neil James from the Aust Defence Association, this morning on the ABC. James replied in exactly the way you wished.

    Benson posed a long series of questions based on quite open & blatant attacks on Rudd. In ever instance James batted the tripe away by examining what Rudd said, and its implications. James said the diggers in Afghanistan knew only too well the real facts and that what Rudd said was basically correct.

    marius benson didn’t like it one bit.

    I have tried finding the transcript, but cannot locate it.

    Most australians know were are only there accruing *frequent fighter points* with the americans. Obama has said wtte he is only there until he can work out a face saving means of withdrawing.

    As you say the military (and their families) are the meat in the grinder. The US military cannot be far from being *broken*. Many many many of them have been constantly redeployed since March 2003 until they are killed or maimed. It is doubtful that any of them escape mental damage.

  31. SK – Gillan on Sky this morning admitted that Wikileaks is giving the journos ‘lots of fun’.

    Says a lot about many of the journos/opinionistas skills, doesn’t it. The indepth stuff goes over their heads.

  33. dave

    the real story here is that the US is at the crossroads, and who knows where it will end. The Bush years broke down that society so much, morally, financially and mentally. I have stated this previously. I want the US to remain strong. Mainly because on a geopolitical level, the world needs power to be balanced. It is never a good option to have power concentrated in one area. The US is a counterbalance, and Australia needs it to be so. We are geographically in an area, where we are extremely vulnerable. We can complain all we like, but we need to be supported militarily. If not the US, who will?

  35. [Labor delivered pension increases and maternity leave. So what is the big deal!]

    victoria – I was just reading the comments under Dunlop’s article and someone there has written that Oakes is still saying JG was against pension rises. I thought she qualified that with wtte ‘wanting to ensure the payments could continue ad infinitum’. That is a lot different to being against them.

    Has anyone else heard Oakes say that recently?

  37. BH,

    When the really big scoop comes from wikileaks (the overarching story from wikileaks) those lazy journalists will wonder what hit them, because they are devoid of any real analytical ability they will not see the forest for the trees. 😉

  38. [Laurie Oakes,Walkley winner, great journalist apparently, the ‘best we have’, persists that PM Gillard was against pension increases in Cabinet.That is a twist of the leak, I believe she was been rigorous and watching the budget bottom line, isn’t that what we expect in a working government. He is spinning, who is he doing that for why is he so respected for this. Mog57]

    If Oakes is still doing this then BB is right – Labor needs to stand him up on it.

  40. BH

    I heard JG say at the time, she questioned the affordability in cabinet, as this was a huge commitment to the budget that would extend into the next generation. It would make sense to discuss the pros and cons of such an expediture in cabinet. Eventually it must have been agreed upon, as they were then approved and given.
    I fail to see that JG doing this as something bad, as opposed to the Howard years that gave pensioners a pittance in increases.

  41. The only people I respect in the media are Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert. Funny thing is they are not journos but comedians! Go figure.

  42. Victoria, BH,

    In fact, this is the normal process in budgeting in government. Every body of work is costed for initial, ongoing, maintenance and normal replacement costs.

  43. SK

    Exactly. What is the big deal. Why was Howard not hauled over the coals. They did not find wmd in Iraq. He should be hammered from pillar to post.

  44. Victoria,

    The big one that has been let through to the keeper is CostingsGate. That was deliberately trying to defraud the Australian public and not one journo has had the cohones to get to the heart of that little matter.

    If they did the entire front bench of the oppostion would be wiped out.

  45. [They did not find wmd in Iraq. He should be hammered from pillar to post.]

    Especially as he stated that it was not about regime change.

  47. SK

    Yes, that is another example of the media going missing in action.

    Scarpat

    That is one example of the double speak by Howard. Again, where is the media. Silent.

  48. [In fact, this is the normal process in budgeting in government. Every body of work is costed for initial, ongoing, maintenance and normal replacement costs.]

    SK – and Oakes and Abbott know that too. Makes you mad that they play politics with it but Labor has to learn how to counteract it.

    It really makes you appreciate people like Tony Windsor who speaks directly and isn’t afraid to point out the games being played. I hope Oakeshott is learning from him.

  49. BH,

    If we have to thank anyone for being the saving grace this year it would have to be Windsor, Oakey and Wilkie – I have my reservations about Katter. If we did not have at least these three principled men as a check, I think I would have packed my bags for some remote island somewhere!

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