Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

The weekly Essential Research poll has the Coalition with a 51-49 two-party lead for the fourth week running. The Coalition primary vote is up a point to 45 per cent, with Labor steady on 38 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Respondents were also presented with a series of “party attributes&#148 to respond to, of which my favourite findings are that the Coalition is both more moderate and more extreme than Labor. The Liberals are thought to have a better team of leaders, understanding of the problems facing Australia, to be clearer about what they stand for and to be less inclined to make promises to win votes. However, they are also thought too close to big corporate and financial interests. Labor’s lead on “looks after the interests of working people” is narrower than one feels it ought to be. The two most emphatic responses were the 50 per cent who believed Labor would do anything to win votes and the 39 per cent who thought the Greens “extreme”.

Scepticism about climate change seems to have increased since the question was previously canvassed a year ago, with 45 per cent believing it to be happening and caused by human activity – down from 53 per cent – and 36 per cent believing “we are just witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate” (up from 34 per cent). Nonetheless, 61 per cent are willing to rate the issue as “important”, including majorities for each party support group. Labor are rated as best party to deal with the issue by 23 per cent, the Coalition by 29 per cent and the Greens on 19 per cent, representing little change on a year ago.

UPDATE: Roy Morgan has unexpectedly published results from its latest face-to-face poll on a Monday rather then the traditional Friday. These show Labor’s lead narrowing from 54-46 to 52.5-47.5, from primary votes of 40.5 per cent Labor (down half a point), 42 per cent Coalition (up two) and 12 per cent Greens (unchanged). This is Labor’s weakest result in a Morgan face-to-face poll since a week before the election, when their lead was 52-48. The poll was conducted on the weekends of November 20-21 and 27-28, from a sample of 1829.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

442 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. [Holiday time and no election is sight so the polls donโ€™t mean much right now
    50/50 = who cares]

    The MSM will tomorrow, it’ll get maximum coverage, unlike the poll from 2 weeks ago. ๐Ÿ˜‰

  2. [Would anyone recall the primary votes in the second last Newspoll where the coalition led 52-48 ?]

    All the past newspolls are archived at Newspoll’s website

    http://www.newspoll.com.au/

    Click on the blue box titled “Latest Polls” & you can then search by date for the one you’re looking for.

  3. [But we can vote out the people who leaked the material to them. And we almost did.]

    Um, we can’t if we don’t know who it was!

    If it was Rudd, then you could still argue that you should vote Labor since that problem was fixed. If it was Tanner, he was going anyway… if it was someone else, then that would be interesting and voters could make their own judgement about whether or not that affects the government’s ability to run itself.

    If it was a staffer/security guard since dismissed, then that’s another matter altogether!

    Dio, you mightn’t have cared that Abbott was almost Prime Minister, but I did.

  4. The OZ

    [The nation, however, overwhelmingly believes climate change is caused by mankind.]

    So the challenge for Jooles and Labor is to get those who believe in man made climate change to accept a tax that wont do a bloody thing for greenhouse gases. It aint going to be an easy road for her I think.

  5. Julia doesn’t fill me with confidence, but my philosophy remains that any Labor Government is preferable to what we’d get from Abbott & his team. ๐Ÿ™‚

  6. [You Greens need to grow yourselves a sense of humor and get rid of the superiority complex.]

    Mmm. Whenever I look in the mirror I find I seem to actually be a lighter shade of pink, vera, except on those very rare occasions when I either have the mother of all hangovers or am floating around on the Bay of Biscay in a ship without stabilisers!

  7. I love this tweet ๐Ÿ˜€

    [Sarah Palin says Julian should be hunted down like Osama bin Laden–so he should be safe for at least a decade.]

  8. For the record, Laurie Oakes has said that Rudd wasn’t the leaker, & John Faulkner thinks that Rudd had no part in it either.
    I’m suspicious of Tanner, more so than the Ruddster.

  9. It will take a few more months yet but at least labor is not going backwards and the coalition is not getting any momentum. People have turned off since the election and now are only thinking of Santa.

    I think the 50-50 on paying more for energy is a pretty good base to start 2011. I am sure the government will push this for all it is worth in 2011. Julia is locked in.

  10. vik @403,

    thanks for the link.

    i was just thinking that if the last poll was a oncer then the coalition are going a bit backwards as well from their previous 52-48 to 50-50.

    Anyway, no one out there in voter land really cares at the moment.

  11. [For the record, Laurie Oakes has said that Rudd wasnโ€™t the leaker, & John Faulkner thinks that Rudd had no part in it either.
    Iโ€™m suspicious of Tanner, more so than the Ruddster.]

    And we can only speculate, smearing the reputation of innocents, all because Oakes refused to name his source. If we’re going to let the sun freaking shine in, then let it shine a thousand rays, just not rays that support the Abbott-Tory agenda — they seem to be the leaks Dio supports, in any case!

  12. evan

    Hartcher said “Government members” so it was more than one. Jenny Macklin’s name has come up as well but no-one really knows and I suspect we’ll never know unless there is a Wikileak from News Ltd or Fairfax.

  13. Gusface @414,

    From her recent agenda / vision statements she has placed pricing carbon pretty high on her list.

    Hopefully she will work on it locked in her old room at her parents home over Christmas.

  14. Doyley

    [Hopefully she will work on it locked in her old room at her parents home over Christmas.]

    She will be about five minutes walk from where I live.

  15. [i was just thinking that if the last poll was a oncer then the coalition are going a bit backwards as well from their previous 52-48 to 50-50.]

    It’s good if the opposition are at 50:50 or even slightly ahead … It means that Abbott gets to stay as opposition leader. ๐Ÿ™‚

    Tone managed to make it close this time, but with Julia having the advantage of incumbency & without the leaks, she should easily be able to win against him in 2013.

  16. Diogenes @422,

    Call around and make sure she is working hard. Say hello for me.

    Gus,

    that was the best I could come up with at short notice.

  17. [As for WikiLeaks’ Australian founder Julian Assange, Mr Downer said he thought that morally he was an appalling person.]

    Mmmmmm! Pot – kettle – black!

    Actually,I much more prefer Mr Assange.

  18. Finally read all the posts and caught up. ๐Ÿ™‚

    I see the pokie lobby is really gearing up to pressure xeno and wilkie over the pre-commitment proposals.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/12/03/3084396.htm

    I remember how shocked I was when I first found out about woolies involvement in poker machines. It was one of the reasons I dropped my custom with them.
    I hope the wilkie, xeno andf the gov’t stand up to this pressure.

  19. [Yep thatโ€™s me Liberal lover for sure. Got a photo of Tone above my bed]

    Amigo, ๐Ÿ˜ฅ ๐Ÿ˜ฅ ๐Ÿ˜ฅ

    better than this?

  20. [I remember how shocked I was when I first found out about woolies involvement in poker machines. It was one of the reasons I dropped my custom with them.
    I hope the wilkie, xeno andf the govโ€™t stand up to this pressure.]
    Hope you don’t shop at Coles…….they own them too.

  21. Puff @429,

    Good to see at least once the love is spread around and not just reserved for the government.

    Have the greens any policy on this at this time ?

    It will be interesting to see how nick handles people not liking him.

  22. Finns
    I forgot to mention that my Tone photo is full of holes from the darts I throw at it ๐Ÿ˜‰

    your picture is much more pleasing on the eye :kiss:

  23. [Actually,I much more prefer Mr Assange.]

    Were you, or have you ever known a wiki witch?

    were you or are you currently a wiki witch?

    Answer the question, witch lover!!

    *grins*

  24. [As for WikiLeaks’ Australian founder Julian Assange, Mr Downer said he thought that morally he was an appalling person.]

    Now, why on EARTH can’t anyone else from the ministry or the ALP caucus make a clear-cut statement like this ?! ๐Ÿ™

    Ed Husic has at least tried …

  25. Frank…who seems to have been distracted by his endless pursuit of”Green Cultists”
    has the bizarre notion that somehow or other Assange will file the Centrelink or ATO files
    How/…Why ??
    Assenge is interested in US and other diplomatic files and cables..the boring Centrelink files about pensioners would kill all interest stone dead !
    He is after real criminals.like the banksters…… and looney politicians
    e.g. Politicians from small middling NATIONS WHO WANT TO USE FORCE AGAINST CHINA

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