Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

The weekly Essential Research poll has the Coalition with a 51-49 two-party lead for the fourth week running. The Coalition primary vote is up a point to 45 per cent, with Labor steady on 38 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Respondents were also presented with a series of “party attributes&#148 to respond to, of which my favourite findings are that the Coalition is both more moderate and more extreme than Labor. The Liberals are thought to have a better team of leaders, understanding of the problems facing Australia, to be clearer about what they stand for and to be less inclined to make promises to win votes. However, they are also thought too close to big corporate and financial interests. Labor’s lead on “looks after the interests of working people” is narrower than one feels it ought to be. The two most emphatic responses were the 50 per cent who believed Labor would do anything to win votes and the 39 per cent who thought the Greens “extreme”.

Scepticism about climate change seems to have increased since the question was previously canvassed a year ago, with 45 per cent believing it to be happening and caused by human activity – down from 53 per cent – and 36 per cent believing “we are just witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate” (up from 34 per cent). Nonetheless, 61 per cent are willing to rate the issue as “important”, including majorities for each party support group. Labor are rated as best party to deal with the issue by 23 per cent, the Coalition by 29 per cent and the Greens on 19 per cent, representing little change on a year ago.

UPDATE: Roy Morgan has unexpectedly published results from its latest face-to-face poll on a Monday rather then the traditional Friday. These show Labor’s lead narrowing from 54-46 to 52.5-47.5, from primary votes of 40.5 per cent Labor (down half a point), 42 per cent Coalition (up two) and 12 per cent Greens (unchanged). This is Labor’s weakest result in a Morgan face-to-face poll since a week before the election, when their lead was 52-48. The poll was conducted on the weekends of November 20-21 and 27-28, from a sample of 1829.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

442 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  2. Rod,

    It appears so.

    have all 250,000 documents been released or are they being held by Wikileaks and are going to be drip fed ?

  5. [Pollytics @edhusicMP The last thing we need is that Chris Mitchell mindset on free debate (and its sources) getting adopted by people with real power ]

    double Hmmmmmmm

  7. Victoria
    [Off topic, but I was at U2 concert other night. I was right next to where Bono sang this song. Miss Sarajevo. It was a highlight of my life.]
    Green with envy I is!

  9. Doyley,

    [A serious question.

    Does anyone have any idea why Sweden, of all countries, would ” make up ” charges against Assange ?

    Has there been significant information released that would directly affect them or are they doing it on behalf of America? ]

    I’d reckon it is just plain & simply business first. The US would be close to being Sweden’s biggest customer or potentially at least.

    Check out just how many products that they export into the US market.

  10. Doyley

    [Has America made clear as yet if any charges are to be made against the gentleman in question ?]

    It looks like the answer is no. They can’t find anything yet (they have been in this situation many times before so they know they are up against it).

    They are talking about bringing in a new retrospective law instead.

    Cuppa

    [I find it incredible that having sex without a condom can be a criminal offense. Does Assange have AIDS or something?]

    Purely speculation but my guess is the important bit is that the condom may have broken. Perhaps she is alleging that she wanted him to stop as it was now unprotected sex.

  12. victoria @353 – its not entirely off topic. I was at the U2 concert on the Wednesday – and it was unashamedly political 🙂

  13. [I’m not sure i should have put Vera in square brackets but maybe she likes that on a Monday night …]

    Given that she is now providing links to Nicholson cartoons in the Oz, I reckon that even Johnny Howard might have trouble matching veras views of the world, Jasmine. Square brackets seem pretty right to me, though maybe a few other early 19t C symbols would work just as well!

  16. doyley

    In swahili

    probably a fatwa on my neighbour cos his goats bleats at night and is ver unfriendly- in a goat kinda way

    I digress

    In english

    dont play games with the info revolution

  19. cud chewer

    I have been a fan of U2 for eons. I have been to several of their concerts, and yes they are unashamedly political. Their songs reflect the political and social stories of our time. What I felt after that concert, was that times may change, but issues that confront us are the same.

  22. [Doyley

    I thought “government members” would have to be MPs. Are staffers and advisors members of the government?]

    “Government members” was a very crude and deliberately vague descriptor to ensure the smear was widely cast making the leaks even more politically damaging.

    This was wanton political vandalism on Oakes’ and Hartcher’s part and history will not judge them kindly. We cannot vote those fools out unfortunately.

    I do note that Oakes has been MIA for some time now — replaced by a foot-in-the-door ACA reporter, Ben Fordham! How ironicalment!

  23. Given that she is now providing links to Nicholson cartoons in the Oz, I reckon that even Johnny Howard might have trouble matching veras views of the world,

    Yep that’s me Liberal lover for sure. Got a photo of Tone above my bed 😛
    You Greens need to grow yourselves a sense of humor and get rid of the superiority complex.
    Half the PBs arguing here for the last week would give a wry grin at Nicholson
    It was a cartoon ferchrisake
    Chill out!

  24. Cuppa,

    [I find it incredible that having sex without a condom can be a criminal offense. Does Assange have AIDS or something? ]

    My four kids are bloody glad that I didn’t use one! 😉

  30. [This was wanton political vandalism on Oakes’ and Hartcher’s part and history will not judge them kindly. We cannot vote those fools out unfortunately.]

    But we can vote out the people who leaked the material to them. And we almost did.

  34. Dio @ 260

    Ah, thanks for that.

    I had an intuitive belief – built on (I hope) some good historian’s instincts – that this was so.

  35. [Purely speculation but my guess is the important bit is that the condom may have broken. Perhaps she is alleging that she wanted him to stop as it was now unprotected sex. ]

    It would be pretty hard to know that until after the act so to speak!

    I think it is just a heap of hogwash and plenty others do too.

  36. [ Dee
    Posted Monday, December 6, 2010 at 10:11 pm | Permalink
    scorpio

    My four kids are bloody glad that I didn’t use one!

    Too much information!
    ]

    Just the way the Wiki Cultists like it 🙂 – except when it comes to the off chance Cenrtrelink and the ATO are concerned – then they are more secretive than an ASIO spook.

  40. [This was wanton political vandalism on Oakes’ and Hartcher’s part and history will not judge them kindly. We cannot vote those fools out unfortunately.

    I do note that Oakes has been MIA for some time now — replaced by a foot-in-the-door ACA reporter, Ben Fordham! How ironicalment!]

    Sadly, the most we can do is not watch their crap, hope that the ratings organisations detect a trend and the channels give the Sphere of Influence and other muckrakers the big heave-ho. Then the channels would probably replace it/him with some ‘current affairs’ program that’s even worse! 🙁

  41. z

    I thought it looked like a win for you. He is pretty careful about drawing conclusions.

    [Dr Mooney does not believe the research will change current land management practices in Australia, such as hazard reduction burns, but he adds we need to rid ourselves of the notion that we can control fire.

    “After big fires we often get commentators suggesting that we reintroduce some Aboriginal-style fire management and it suggests that we know something about the past,” he said.

    “This work shows that fire is much more dynamic in the landscape when it is responding to climate rather than people.”]

  47. How ironic and strange that Lord Downer is defending Rudd – hell must have frozen over! 😉
    I bet Abbott doesn’t appear on Red Kerry during his final week either, as we know that Phoney only chooses sympathetic interviewers – Alan Jones, Barry Cassidy etc. 😀

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