Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

The weekly Essential Research poll has the Coalition with a 51-49 two-party lead for the fourth week running. The Coalition primary vote is up a point to 45 per cent, with Labor steady on 38 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Respondents were also presented with a series of “party attributes&#148 to respond to, of which my favourite findings are that the Coalition is both more moderate and more extreme than Labor. The Liberals are thought to have a better team of leaders, understanding of the problems facing Australia, to be clearer about what they stand for and to be less inclined to make promises to win votes. However, they are also thought too close to big corporate and financial interests. Labor’s lead on “looks after the interests of working people” is narrower than one feels it ought to be. The two most emphatic responses were the 50 per cent who believed Labor would do anything to win votes and the 39 per cent who thought the Greens “extreme”.

Scepticism about climate change seems to have increased since the question was previously canvassed a year ago, with 45 per cent believing it to be happening and caused by human activity – down from 53 per cent – and 36 per cent believing “we are just witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate” (up from 34 per cent). Nonetheless, 61 per cent are willing to rate the issue as “important”, including majorities for each party support group. Labor are rated as best party to deal with the issue by 23 per cent, the Coalition by 29 per cent and the Greens on 19 per cent, representing little change on a year ago.

UPDATE: Roy Morgan has unexpectedly published results from its latest face-to-face poll on a Monday rather then the traditional Friday. These show Labor’s lead narrowing from 54-46 to 52.5-47.5, from primary votes of 40.5 per cent Labor (down half a point), 42 per cent Coalition (up two) and 12 per cent Greens (unchanged). This is Labor’s weakest result in a Morgan face-to-face poll since a week before the election, when their lead was 52-48. The poll was conducted on the weekends of November 20-21 and 27-28, from a sample of 1829.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

442 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. Ironically there was a leak that the Swedes were thick with the US security services, apparently unknown to many politicians who bragged on Sweden’s independence.

    The initial charge against Assange was dropped because the prosecutor said there was no evidence. Then the story goes it was reinstated after local political interference and by a different prosecutor.

  2. Oh dear, Newt Gingrich now wants Assange to be treated as an Enemy Combatant.

    Let crucify Assange and he will be the new Jesus.

  3. Doyley

    My understanding just based on a general look on the net is that a complaint was genuinely made, something about a condom breaking and the “act” not being terminated when the lady requested. The matter was going to be dropped as it didn’t look like going anywhere until a Swedish politician got involved.

  4. [Pell hasn’t commented on wikileaks.

    Next !!]

    Frank, as I have already said, Governments love secrecy because it is a great way of hiding the dirty washing.

    Oppositions love leaks because it gives them leverage and access to the dirty washing.

    Occasionally secrecy is justified, though mostly, of course, it is not.

    The trouble is, for those of us out of the “loop”, it is impossible to make a judgement about such things until the information concerned is published . The “default” position that we should, I think, adopt, is that secrecy is generally not a good thing. Sometimes, though, this is actually the wrong answer. It all comes down to the content and the consequences.

  5. doyley

    sweden aint out to get assange

    a swedish woman has made allegations against assange

    the initial and final charges are different

    the crux is that they have 10 days to serve assange

    nb the police know full well where he is- they as yet have no charge to arrest him on

  12. [Dio, btw, I am still waiting for Laurie Oakes to be charged for breaching Cabinet confidentiality during the election campaign. Any public servant who engaged in his behaviour would be dismissed and likely charged.]
    These are the worst kinds of leaks. Journos taking verbal leaks with nothing concrete to back them up. No minutes of the meeting, nothing. What is their reasoning?
    Oh, the source is reliable. How so? Someone wishing to inflict political damage against someone they dislike could hardly be considered reliable.
    Gillard was not able to fully defend herself because of cabinet confidentiality.

    And so OO want more leakers such as we have witnessed with Wikileaks? Bollocks!
    Gawd! They don’t even like journos reporting what other journos have stated at forums if it reveals the real garbage they get up to to sway political opinion.
    They are supporting it purely because it is going to be the Coalition line. The Coalition are supporting it because it has wider public support.

    Something smells awfully fishy when Bishop comes out publicly supporting it.

  13. [Does anyone have any idea why Sweden, of all countries, would ” make up ” charges against Assange ?]

    Sweden currently has a Right / Centre Right prime minister from the conservative “Moderate” party, which is not dissimilar to the Australian “Liberals”, Doyley.

  16. [Does anyone have any idea why Sweden, of all countries, would ” make up ” charges against Assange ?]

    The Swedes are still trying to recover their glory days since the retirement of AbbA

  20. Yes it was strange. I saw a lengthy interview with Assange’s lawyer (I think she is an Aussie).

    She made the following points re Sweden, I might have a few items in wrong order.

    Assange a number of times requested to be interviewed by the Swedish authorities to clear his name. They refused each time.

    After one of the alleged incidents the women went out and bought him breakfast.

    The charge was dropped as according to the prosecutor there was ‘no evidence’

    Assange asked the proscutor if it was fine for him to go to the UK. He was told yes, he was not wanted.

    He went to the UK.

    The charge was reinstated by a different prosecutor after intervention by a politician and Interpol notice issued forthwith.

    The charge as we know is consensual sex without a condom. There is no suggestion of force. Though the Swedes rapped it up in category rape and sexual molestation (why?)

    Then it was said he was in hiding in the UK. The Lawyer said he was not in hiding except for his self protection and that Scotland Yard was able to see him anytime (apparently they are now watching the house)

  25. tp

    both the swedish and swiss pirate party have said they will support assange if he needs asylum

    perhaps by being detained in sweden – if needs be- would stop the rendition of assange to the usa

  26. So due to the obvious political nature of the Swedish charge and use of Interpol I think a British court might find it difficult to agree to an extradition order.

  30. By the news reports it seems there has been some selective emphasis.
    [Rudd called for “integrating China effectively into the international community and allowing it to demonstrate greater responsibility, all while also preparing to deploy force if everything goes wrong,” the cable stated.]

  33. Dio @303,

    [My understanding just based on a general look on the net is that a complaint was genuinely made, something about a condom breaking…]

    Hmm.. adds new meaning to the term wiki-leak 🙂

  35. Has America made clear as yet if any charges are to be made against the gentleman in question ?

    Anyone have any idea as to the relevance of the Crimes Act to the publishing of the information by Wikileaks outside of Australia? Or would Husic only be considering Assagne as a individual ?

  37. “So due to the obvious political nature of the Swedish charge and use of Interpol I think a British court might find it difficult to agree to an extradition order.”

    How would you know the girls in question were making it up?

    Just asking. Let me guess their old boss at a massage parlour said they were always making it up and a dodgy newspaper published … well that would be good enough for many here should be good enough for me.

  38. Sorry Gus, have read a million things lately. A lot of the stuff or links to it can be found at The Guardian web site.

  39. hey how would i have made my quote look more like a quote … is there a parsing guide for lazy posters who should have worked it out 4 years ago?

  40. [It will be interesting to see if they go ahead.]

    Everything seems to be saying the “charges” are fundamentally bullshit, Doyley.

    Doesn’t mean that “wiki-leaks ” is right or wrong, of course. It just means that some very powerful people are angry.

  44. Diogenes @328,

    Thanks.

    I have no idea what the offical status would be for staffers and advisers employed directly by a minister as part of his/her personal team.

    Government/ ministerial employee as opposed to departmental employee?

  46. [hey how would i have made my quote look more like a quote …]

    Just stick a left hand square bracket at the beginning of the quote and a right hand square bracket at the end, vera

  48. Oh pewk! 😡

    [The opposition says it would confirm potentially damaging leaks on foreign policy despite the diplomatic ramifications and has called on the government to do the same.

    Opposition foreign affairs spokeswoman Julie Bishop says the government should confirm whether comments by former prime minister Kevin Rudd suggesting the use of force against China are Labor Party policy.

    The comments, which were made to the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton over lunch in Washington in March 2009, came to light in a leaked diplomatic cable by WikiLeaks.

    Ms Bishop said she was concerned by the language Mr Rudd used and leaving the comments without any clarification from Prime Minister Julia Gillard was doing damage to Australia’s international relations.]

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