Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

The weekly Essential Research poll has the Coalition with a 51-49 two-party lead for the fourth week running. The Coalition primary vote is up a point to 45 per cent, with Labor steady on 38 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Respondents were also presented with a series of “party attributes&#148 to respond to, of which my favourite findings are that the Coalition is both more moderate and more extreme than Labor. The Liberals are thought to have a better team of leaders, understanding of the problems facing Australia, to be clearer about what they stand for and to be less inclined to make promises to win votes. However, they are also thought too close to big corporate and financial interests. Labor’s lead on “looks after the interests of working people” is narrower than one feels it ought to be. The two most emphatic responses were the 50 per cent who believed Labor would do anything to win votes and the 39 per cent who thought the Greens “extreme”.

Scepticism about climate change seems to have increased since the question was previously canvassed a year ago, with 45 per cent believing it to be happening and caused by human activity – down from 53 per cent – and 36 per cent believing “we are just witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate” (up from 34 per cent). Nonetheless, 61 per cent are willing to rate the issue as “important”, including majorities for each party support group. Labor are rated as best party to deal with the issue by 23 per cent, the Coalition by 29 per cent and the Greens on 19 per cent, representing little change on a year ago.

UPDATE: Roy Morgan has unexpectedly published results from its latest face-to-face poll on a Monday rather then the traditional Friday. These show Labor’s lead narrowing from 54-46 to 52.5-47.5, from primary votes of 40.5 per cent Labor (down half a point), 42 per cent Coalition (up two) and 12 per cent Greens (unchanged). This is Labor’s weakest result in a Morgan face-to-face poll since a week before the election, when their lead was 52-48. The poll was conducted on the weekends of November 20-21 and 27-28, from a sample of 1829.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

442 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 6 of 9
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  1. [From what I can see, Frank, wiki-leaks don’t even think the Australian government rates a mention, let alone any poor centrelink recipient. Heck, outside of Australia even the Clinton- Rudd chat has simply been seen as newsworthy because she honestly suggested that it was hard for the US to be hard on China because they’ve got a mortgage on the US farm finances these days!]

    I think what Frank and others are saying is that if you apply a public interest test so broad and vague, similar to what some are suggesting here, you could justify the leaking of any and all government (or other) documents, including Centrelink payment histories.

    The only public interest arguments that have been advanced so in favour of this particular set of Wikileaks has been a broad “let the sun shine in on a crooked US regime” – rather than to expose a particular lie, corruption, injustice or moral outrage.

  2. I just watched that Family Connections show on ABC, which featured winemaker Andrew Garrett. I had no idea who he was until right at the end where one of his sons mentioned Andrew Garrett sparkling shiraz.

    Ahhh, now I know. 😉

  3. Some sound advice for the US from Rudd. I imagine he isn’t the only person telling them this!

    [“What now happens? I think rule number one for our friends in the United States is `how do you tighten things up a bit?”’]

  6. WWP

    Not at all. There is this hysteria about Assange saying he should be executed etc etc. Are they saying the NYT and Guardian editors who published it should be executed? Are they saying they should even be charged? Have they been charged?

    Why is there such a huge difference?

  8. A good read.

    [Journalists who receive leaked material normally go through it, analyse it, and selected information to build a particular story: “what is really happening”. The reason Wikileaks releases floods of barely-redacted material is because they *aren’t* trying to tell a particular story. Instead, they are trying to change the stage for storytelling itself.

    This is not journalism, this is meta-journalism. This is revolution — or at least, it’s trying to be.

    That’s why Wikileaks isn’t doing what some people want and editing the dumps to include only the important stuff. In the other thread russell and liberal japonicus, among others, say they distrust Assange because he has no “accountability” — but he is, in fact, putting his life on the line by his actions. Assange may not officially report to anyone, but he is far more likely to be held to account for what he does than are any of the powerful people who plan and wage wars, behind their barriers of official secrecy.]

    http://obsidianwings.blogs.com/obsidian_wings/2010/12/the-culture-of-conspiracy-the-conspiracy-of-culture.html

    Staying in touch

    http://213.251.145.96/

  10. Zoomster and Rod

    I saw this today. I’m sure you would be very interested.

    [New research puts paid to the belief that Aboriginal people used fire on a large scale to control vegetation across Australia.

    The research team, who published their findings in the latest edition of the journal Quaternary Science Reviews, examined charcoal records dating back 70,000 years at 223 sites across Australasia.

    Lead researcher Dr Scott Mooney, from the University of New South Wales, says the research shows Aborigines were using fire at a local scale, but not with the major impact that some people have previously thought.

    He says the research suggests people have “imagined the past”.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/12/06/3085776.htm

  11. [Why is there such a huge difference?]

    Diog, you are bloody iDIOt sometimes.

    Assange is just a little guy & Wikileaks is not even a startup, whereas NYT & Guardian editors belongs to the big boy.

  12. The response from Radio 3AW listeners today was completly favourable to Aassenge,and then most critical of Field Marshall Rudd.
    How by the way do you use force on the Chinese without…
    (1) Starting a nucleur war
    (2)Getting one hell of a HIDING yourself
    (3)Destroying the Oz economy as an after effect
    The Western Australians will be worried stiff.,’cause they love China !!

  13. [This whole Wikileaks charade needs to be put into perspective.]

    The thing about perspective it depends where you are sitting. So putting it into perspective often just tells us your opinion which you did. It is also determined how good someone’s eyesight is and if they are wearing the right prescription glasses.

    The moment the receivers of leaks begin to make decision on the usefulness or not of the leak they are enforcing their opinion, often political, on the world. To be clear of that charge a conduit for leaks should really only have a few criteria, and that would be to do with protecting life, limb and property one would imagine.

    So really Wikkileaks needs to simply publish the raw data redacted to protect life and limb and property free from other subjective choices and also free from editorialising.

  14. I wondered how long it would be before your beloved “la la land” would surface , Frank.

    Yes, public accountability of governments to the people of the countries that they represent is an important question in the modern world. So is the protection of genuinely personal information from public view.

    In reality the matters involved are fundamentally diametrically opposed to each. One involves the accountability of a government to those who elect it. The other involves the protection of individuals from the excesses of government interference in their lives.

  16. [Not at all. There is this hysteria about Assange saying he should be executed etc etc. Are they saying the NYT and Guardian editors who published it should be executed? Are they saying they should even be charged? Have they been charged?

    Why is there such a huge difference?]

    I am not suggesting Assange be excuted, and I don’t think anyone here troubled by these leaks has. The only person to do so was some Conservative Canadian advisor who has since withdrawn and apologised for such outrageous remarks.

    But if there is any criminal charge applicable for Mr Assange, then I agree that the Guardian and other news outlets who published these leaks should also be charged.

    That is of course a matter for the relevant police and prosecuting authorities.

  17. [deblonay
    Posted Monday, December 6, 2010 at 8:45 pm | Permalink
    The response from Radio 3AW listeners today was completly favourable to Aassenge,and then most critical of Field Marshall Rudd.
    How by the way do you use force on the Chinese without…
    (1) Starting a nucleur war
    (2)Getting one hell of a HIDING yourself
    (3)Destroying the Oz economy as an after effect
    The Western Australians will be worried stiff.,’cause they love China !!
    ]

    Wow, using a rifght wing Radio station which would attack Labor for even getting out of bed demonstrates that the Wikilovers cerdibility has sunk to sub zero proportions.

    Next you’ll be bring up the KKK as Charactor witnesses.

  18. [It was a Rhetorical question.]

    Diog, what Rhett Butler had anything to do with it. Frank-ly my dear, i dont give a damn.

  19. I know that I have been overseas on many occasions and haven’t seen a single reference to Australia in the USA or english-language press in Europe either
    We are such little interest.!!

    Just once I saw Howard on Seattle TV…FOR 30 SECONDS.
    That was more than enough !!

  22. Yes, I saw the story on fire use, Diog, but I’m waiting to read the article before I say anything about it. I thought the ABC journo who dealt with it on AM this morning just didn’t get it. He repeatedly talked about “widespread burning” , as if it was supposed previously to be some sort of general Indigenous “fire mitigation” strategy advocated by one Royal Commission or another, rather than the sort of highly localised activity I’ve seen in practice myself.

  23. [Journalists who receive leaked material]

    Media outlets are owned by media moguls each of who have strong political leanings or have the desire to leverage information with governments. I doubt none of the proper practice goes on with leaks except to think of the political angle thereby tarnishing the leak if not obscuring it.

    And we know in Australia and the US for instance that politics plays a very important part of how outlets portrait governments.

    Leaking to newspapers is a poor second to just making the raw data available subject to the life limb etc considerations.

  25. [But if there is any criminal charge applicable for Mr Assange, then I agree that the Guardian and other news outlets who published these leaks should also be charged.]

    Fair enough, at least that is consistent even if I don’t necessarily agree with it.

    I’m not enjoying the double standards from some.

  27. [Darren

    Palin and Huckabee want him executed.]

    Really? Well they are at the cretinous extremes of the Republican Party, which I again understand is a conservative political party in the US.

  28. The fact that is that while some on 3AW are right-wing ,Peter Margher is fairly centrist in his views and was very pro-Assange on the program

    Most of the listeners are as right wing as you Frank, with your anti-civil liberties views and your rabid support of the USA and conservatives like Rudd,who
    sucked up to Bush,,,Remember Rudd at the Nato Conference and his little salute of support to Bush ! They deserved each other

  29. [Assange may not officially report to anyone, but he is far more likely to be held to account ]

    This was the point I made a few days ago to someone saying leaking should be subjected to system involving the courts to determine what should be allowed to be published.

    Wikkileaks live with a sword over them and hold their futures in their hands. The moment they go beyond the pale is the moment they are done for. Giving justification and public support for governments and so forth to put them out of business.

    In fact I suspect Wikkileaks will be framed in such away to discredit them and then attack them.

  31. Dio, btw, I am still waiting for Laurie Oakes to be charged for breaching Cabinet confidentiality during the election campaign. Any public servant who engaged in his behaviour would be dismissed and likely charged.

    Whistle-blower protections don’t apply in that matter since it was only in the public interest to know who in cabinet (if anyone) was prepared to break Cabinet conventions to give full and fair political context to Our Julia’s alleged remarks.

    It was pure unadulterated political vandalism on Mr Oakes’ part (and of course his anonymous leaker) aimed at putting Mr Abbott into the Lodge (or in his case, Kirribilli House) – and it nearly worked.

  34. [The fact that is that while some on 3AW are right-wing ,Peter Margher is fairly centrist in his views and was very pro-Assange on the program

    Most of the listeners are as right wing as you Frank, with your anti-civil liberties views and your rabid support of the USA and conservatives like Rudd,who
    sucked up to Bush,,,Remember Rudd at the Nato Conference and his little salute of support to Bush ! They deserved each other]

    Rudd resigned as Prime Minister. May we never speak of his (in)actions as PM again, please. To do so, only serves the Abbott-Tory agenda.

    Thank you.

  36. Oh dear, what is this world coming to.

    Just heard on Slynews, one the OO Journo supports Assange and wants more Assanges.

    Now the friend of my enemy is also my friend, sigh, sigh, sigh.

  37. [ deblonay
    Posted Monday, December 6, 2010 at 8:57 pm | Permalink
    The fact that is that while some on 3AW are right-wing ,Peter Margher is fairly centrist in his views and was very pro-Assange on the program

    Most of the listeners are as right wing as you Frank, with your anti-civil liberties views and your rabid support of the USA and conservatives like Rudd,who
    sucked up to Bush,,,Remember Rudd at the Nato Conference and his little salute of support to Bush ! They deserved each other
    ]

    Like I said to others – Happy for YOUR personal details to be on wikileaks – cos in the great spirit of open and accountable Govt – The PERSONAL records Our Govt should be available for everyone to see – in the spirit of Centrelink and and the ATO to be Transparent.

    *Crickets*

  38. [Just heard on Slynews, one the OO Journo supports Assange and wants more Assanges.]

    J Bishop and now the OO – I am sure their views would be different if the cables were pre-2008!!

  40. [ Darren Laver
    Posted Monday, December 6, 2010 at 9:02 pm | Permalink
    Just heard on Slynews, one the OO Journo supports Assange and wants more Assanges.

    J Bishop and now the OO – I am sure their views would be different if the cables were pre-2008!!
    ]

    Exactly, but tghis will never happen cos the Wikileaks aren’t happy that the Left Govts in australia nd the US aren’t Left enough for them, so they are going to destroy them from within – and the wiki-cultists are being used hook, line and sinker 🙂

  41. [Dio, btw, I am still waiting for Laurie Oakes to be charged for breaching Cabinet confidentiality during the election campaign. Any public servant who engaged in his behaviour would be dismissed and likely charged.]

    The rules are quite different for public servants to the people they leak to. And I doubt a verbal account is enough anyway; it probably has to be the actual documents.

    Of course, if Oakes was charged then the Labor pollie who leaked it should be charged as well but moreso. I don’t recall that being suggested.

  43. Dont believe everything you read, however it bears remembering how strange the Swedes acted in trying to charge Assange with something.

    [By: Kirk James Murphy, M.D. Saturday December 4, 2010 9:20 pm

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    Yesterday Alexander Cockburn reminded us of the news Israel Shamir and Paul Bennett broke at Counterpunch in September. Julian Assange’s chief accuser in Sweden has a significant history of work with anti-Castro groups, at least one of which is US funded and openly supported by a former CIA agent convicted in the mass murder of seventy three Cubans on an airliner he was involved in blowing up.

    Anna Ardin (the official complainant) is often described by the media as a “leftist”. She has ties to the US-financed anti-Castro and anti-communist groups. She published her anti-Castro diatribes (see here and here) in the Swedish-language publication Revista de Asignaturas Cubanas put out by Misceláneas de Cuba. From Oslo, Professor Michael Seltzer points out that this periodical is the product of a well-financed anti-Castro organization in Sweden. He further notes that the group is connected with Union Liberal Cubana led by Carlos Alberto Montaner whose CIA ties were exposed here.

    Quelle surprise, no? Shamir and Bennett went on to write about Ardin’s history in Cuba with a US funded group openly supported by a real terrorist: Luis Posada Carriles.

    In Cuba she interacted with the feminist anti-Castro group Las damas de blanco (the Ladies in White). This group receives US government funds and the convicted anti-communist terrorist Luis Posada Carriles is a friend and supporter. Wikipedia quotes Hebe de Bonafini, president of the Argentine Madres de Plaza de Mayo as saying that “the so-called Ladies in White defend the terrorism of the United States.”

    Who is Luis Posada Carriles? He’s a mass murderer, and former CIA agent. . . . ]

  45. [Of course, if Oakes was charged then the Labor pollie who leaked it should be charged as well but moreso. I don’t recall that being suggested.]

    That’s the point – we still don’t even know if it was a Labor pollie, waterboy or staffer!

    Either way, I would support charges against them and Oakes.

  47. Now the poms do have their priority right, sex, sex, and sex. Rather than leak, leak and leak.

    [Russian ‘spy’: blonde researcher remembered for short skirts – As a young blonde woman with an exotic name and a penchant for wearing short skirts, Ekaterina Zatuliveter was always likely to stand out in the dusty corridors of Parliament …….. Their father, Andrei, meanwhile, is a well-connected businessman in Russia with links to powerful individuals.

    He has previously shown reporters a photograph of Katia wearing a grass skirt, bikini and sunglasses, flanked by men in tribal costumes, during a holiday at a Black Sea resort as a teenager. ]

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/8182506/Russian-spy-blonde-researcher-remembered-for-short-skirts.html

  48. A serious question.

    Does anyone have any idea why Sweden, of all countries, would ” make up ” charges against Assange ?

    Has there been significant information released that would directly affect them or are they doing it on behalf of America?

    I have no idea but I am interested as to why it is assumed the charges are false.

  49. Darren

    [That’s the point – we still don’t even know if it was a Labor pollie, waterboy or staffer!]

    The other guy, Hartcher I think, said it was a Labor minister.

  50. Diogenes @299,

    No mention was made of the leaker being a minister, politican, labor party member or bottle washer as far as i can remember.

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