Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

The weekly Essential Research poll has the Coalition with a 51-49 two-party lead for the fourth week running. The Coalition primary vote is up a point to 45 per cent, with Labor steady on 38 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Respondents were also presented with a series of “party attributes&#148 to respond to, of which my favourite findings are that the Coalition is both more moderate and more extreme than Labor. The Liberals are thought to have a better team of leaders, understanding of the problems facing Australia, to be clearer about what they stand for and to be less inclined to make promises to win votes. However, they are also thought too close to big corporate and financial interests. Labor’s lead on “looks after the interests of working people” is narrower than one feels it ought to be. The two most emphatic responses were the 50 per cent who believed Labor would do anything to win votes and the 39 per cent who thought the Greens “extreme”.

Scepticism about climate change seems to have increased since the question was previously canvassed a year ago, with 45 per cent believing it to be happening and caused by human activity – down from 53 per cent – and 36 per cent believing “we are just witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate” (up from 34 per cent). Nonetheless, 61 per cent are willing to rate the issue as “important”, including majorities for each party support group. Labor are rated as best party to deal with the issue by 23 per cent, the Coalition by 29 per cent and the Greens on 19 per cent, representing little change on a year ago.

UPDATE: Roy Morgan has unexpectedly published results from its latest face-to-face poll on a Monday rather then the traditional Friday. These show Labor’s lead narrowing from 54-46 to 52.5-47.5, from primary votes of 40.5 per cent Labor (down half a point), 42 per cent Coalition (up two) and 12 per cent Greens (unchanged). This is Labor’s weakest result in a Morgan face-to-face poll since a week before the election, when their lead was 52-48. The poll was conducted on the weekends of November 20-21 and 27-28, from a sample of 1829.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

442 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 5 of 9
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  1. I wonder that our government has not protested the call by certain politicians in the USA for Assange to be murdered.

  2. Dee

    “Abbott is intending to holiday in a caravan park near me!
    Would you like his autograph if I should happen to run into him? ”

    run , run into him

    drop some honey into his pockets Dee ,
    does wonders for bees

  3. [Extraordinary today to hear Julie Bishop defending Assange.]

    Yes, this has me worried about the public interest merit of releasing these cables when such discredited characters like Julie Bishop are seeking to defend them so quickly.

    Not a pleasant smell so far wafting from Wikileaks HQ.

    Nonetheless, I will reserve full judgement for now and give them the benefit of the doubt that there is some broad public interest as yet undisclosed that they are defending. Because so far it appears to be mostly gossip, embarrassment and the odd endangering of life that is being caused with limited and unclear public (or “greater good”) benefit.

  4. “When it comes to the flow of information, I think that the more freely information flows, the stronger the society becomes, because then citizens of countries around the world can call their own government to account.”

    Barack Obama

  5. [ Honest Bastard
    Posted Monday, December 6, 2010 at 7:46 pm | Permalink
    “When it comes to the flow of information, I think that the more freely information flows, the stronger the society becomes, because then citizens of countries around the world can call their own government to account.”

    Barack Obama
    ]

    So you’re happy for Wikileaks to publish your persomnal Centrelink files then, cos doing so helps keeps the Govt Honest 🙂

  6. [So you’re happy for Wikileaks to publish your persomnal Centrelink files then, cos doing so helps keeps the Govt Honest]

    Yes that would be interesting!

    Leak away, just not anything that embarrasses me or endangers my loved ones please!

  7. [ Darren Laver
    Posted Monday, December 6, 2010 at 7:50 pm | Permalink
    So you’re happy for Wikileaks to publish your persomnal Centrelink files then, cos doing so helps keeps the Govt Honest

    Yes that would be interesting!

    Leak away, just not anything that embarrasses me or endangers my loved ones please!
    ]

    The Wikilovers are a perfect example of “Do as I Say, not Do as I do syndrome when it comes to privacy.

  8. vera and confessions, apparently contestants in the iron man series would rather compete naked than wear budgies. They want to distance their image away from Tone 😆

  9. Frank, I don’t usually feed the trolls but thought I’d suggest you move away from the keyboard for a short space of time to reflect on the difference between protecting an individual’s right to privacy and the democratic need to limit government secrecy.

    Conflating treatment of individuals and governments is a very simple logical fallacy.

  10. I thought the Obrien interview with Gillard was interesting particularly for:

    – the extent to which the GFC changed the (prospective) course of the government…and how little recognised the GFC’s impact has been, both to the mass media, and almost certainly the population in general

    – how Gillard keeps her cool with questions from the media on how bad the government is in deaing with the media!

  11. Every politician says they will have transparency, let the light in etc etc. As soon as they get in power, they toss that one in the bin.

    That’s why people leak.

    You can’t trust politicians to do what is best for the country; they act in self-interest.

  12. [ Honest Bastard
    Posted Monday, December 6, 2010 at 7:59 pm | Permalink
    Frank, I don’t usually feed the trolls but thought I’d suggest you move away from the keyboard for a short space of time to reflect on the difference between protecting an individual’s right to privacy and the democratic need to limit government secrecy.

    Conflating treatment of individuals and governments is a very simple logical fallacy.
    ]

    I’m not Trolling – I’m sstating a Fact – What’s to stop a pissed off Centrelink staffer releasing Everyone’s Centrelink Records on Wikileaks because they were sacked or were singled out for some issue.

    Live in La L:aland – It does and WILL happen.

  13. [- how Gillard keeps her cool with questions from the media on how bad the government is in deaing with the media!]

    Just a pity the unethical and Tory media wont let this interview see the light of day!

    It’s a shame Julia’s talent as a media performer is so limited in this toxic MSM environment when she’s effectively censored or ridiculed by most outlets – including their ABC.

    This will be the last remotely positive interview she will get by their 7:30 Report – remember once Toolman is in the chair it will Coalition talking points at 40 paces!

  14. Laocoon I understand the point you are making but I wonder why is secrecy good for individuals but bad for govts. Why one helps our society and the other hinders it.

  15. [Every politician says they will have transparency, let the light in etc etc. As soon as they get in power, they toss that one in the bin.

    That’s why people leak.

    You can’t trust politicians to do what is best for the country; they act in self-interest.]

    I can’t wait till Dio starts leaking his patient records!

    The public have a right to know since doctors will always act in their own interest (cf. the Butcher of Bega matter).

  16. [ WeWantPaul
    Posted Monday, December 6, 2010 at 8:04 pm | Permalink
    Laocoon I understand the point you are making but I wonder why is secrecy good for individuals but bad for govts. Why one helps our society and the other hinders it.
    ]
    Exactly, see my Centrelink example.

  17. Downer goes in to bat for Rudd big time. Says he was completely right in his assessment.

    [“It seems to me what Kevin Rudd was particularly emphasising is that something in the Howard Government we emphasised to the Americans,” Mr Downer told Sky News said.

    “And that is with China an emerging power it’s very important to integrate it successfully into the international community.

    “Kevin Rudd has his own way of putting that but we were certainly very anxious to make sure they were properly engaged in Asia-Pacific architecture but that that architecture was not dominated by China but balanced.”]

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/breaking-news/downer-sorry-for-rudd-over-leaked-wikileaks/story-e6frea73-1225966575578

  18. Laocoon @ 214:

    It was certainly an illustration of how obsessive and insular our media is. I don’t expect anything will change.

    I also thought Red Kerry teared up a bit at the end when she gave him that warm appreciation.

  19. [I can’t wait till Dio starts leaking his patient records!]

    Why would it be in the public interest to leak patient records?

  20. WeWantPaul
    [Laocoon I understand the point you are making but I wonder why is secrecy good for individuals but bad for govts. Why one helps our society and the other hinders it.]
    Ummm…what point of mine was that?

  21. [Ron is like Caesar. He should be praised, not stabbed! ]

    Julius Caesar was, undoubtedly, many things , Scorpio, but I reckon there were one heck of a lot of people who would have reckoned a good stabbing was just what he needed, whether they were fellow Romans or simply those that he had screwed over along the way!

  22. [Why would it be in the public interest to leak patient records?]

    Like I said, please see the Butcher of Bega matter. I am sure that women would have avoided that particular doctor had they known the records of his other (female) patients.

  23. [I hope she lays it on so thick about Abbott being too gutless to face Red Kerry before he finishes up that Abbott is forced on just to save face.]

    I hate to say it, because I’ve always been a fan of hers, but I thought JG was actually bloody awful on the 7.30 Report.

  24. [I hate to say it, because I’ve always been a fan of hers, but I thought JG was actually bloody awful on the 7.30 Report.]

    Well it is their 7:30 Report, so I’ll take your word for it.

    I don’t watch that rubbish any more.

  25. RL

    Ummm. Bit of an own goal there.

    His patient records are made by him and would tell everyone how well he was treating his patients. How that would help your argument, I’m not quite sure.

  26. [So you’re happy for Wikileaks to publish your persomnal Centrelink files then, cos doing so helps keeps the Govt Honest]

    Don’t see too many Centrelink files in the wiki-leaks, Frank. Don’t see too many where any of them take any notice of Australia at all, in fact, let alone any of its citizens apart from Assange!

  27. [234 Rod Hagen
    Posted Monday, December 6, 2010 at 8:17 pm | Permalink
    So you’re happy for Wikileaks to publish your persomnal Centrelink files then, cos doing so helps keeps the Govt Honest

    Don’t see too many Centrelink files in the wiki-leaks, Frank. Don’t see too many where any of them take any notice of Australia at all, in fact, let alone any of its citizens apart from Assange!
    ]

    You don’t see any YET – but give it time it WILL happen.

  28. [His patient records are made by him and would tell everyone how well he was treating his patients. How that would help your argument, I’m not quite sure.]

    Well at least I was right about doctors acting in their own-self interest. Perhaps you can suggest what confidential documents held by them or their reviewers that should be leaked in the public interest then?

    How about a MyDoctor website?

    Let the sun shine in!

    Easy to throw sunshine into other people’s industries.

  29. This whole Wikileaks charade needs to be put into perspective.

    Some smart arse thinks it’s in the public interest to publish private and confidential conversations and observations of ministers and diplomats of various countries, all in the name of “the public have the right to know”.

    The public has no right to know what passes between diplomats and ministers on any matter, for that is what diplomacy is all about: discussing issues confidentially, and attempting to solve problems which cannot be resolved publicly, to paraphrase what Kevin Rudd said today.

    If what this clown is doing proves to be illegal, then he should be prosecuted to the full force of the law.

    If it is deemed not to be illegal, then governments of all persuasions should introduce laws making it illegal, as the public’s right to know crap should take second place to the safety and security of diplomats, ministers, embassy staff – even this fellow himself.

    Other than an inflated ego, and taking the high moral ground on the so called “public’s right to know” about private conversations, this fellow should pull his head in and get on with his life.

  30. An awful lot of people here don’t seem to understand that it is the Guardian which released the Rudd-Clinton memo.

    All this fretting about Assange and wikileaks is kind of missing the point.

  31. [ Diogenes
    Posted Monday, December 6, 2010 at 8:27 pm | Permalink
    An awful lot of people here don’t seem to understand that it is the Guardian which released the Rudd-Clinton memo.

    All this fretting about Assange and wikileaks is kind of missing the point.
    ]

    Remind me who set up Wikileaks again ??

    THAT is the point.

  32. Good interview by the PM. The “first watch for your child” and “that first locket for your daughter” were good analogies. That was good use of imagery.

    I do not understand Kerry’s emphasis on the Gillard v Rudd agenda. It is the Labor Party’s agenda. The Liberal Party is driven by their leader’s agenda. A Labor Party leader has not the freedom of such a top-down structure.

  33. [You don’t see any YET – but give it time it WILL happen.]

    From what I can see, Frank, wiki-leaks don’t even think the Australian government rates a mention, let alone any poor centrelink recipient. Heck, outside of Australia even the Clinton- Rudd chat has simply been seen as newsworthy because she honestly suggested that it was hard for the US to be hard on China because they’ve got a mortgage on the US farm finances these days!

  34. [I hate to say it, because I’ve always been a fan of hers, but I thought JG was actually bloody awful on the 7.30 Report.]

    The hardest questions for her, not surprisingly, are the ways her administration and agenda are different from those of Rudd’s. It was always going to be thus – I don’t know what she can say in response to those questions.

  35. Frank

    There are oodles of places to leak the stuff to. In the past, it was leaked to newspapers. This time it went to Wikileaks as a conduit. There are other sites it could have gone to.

  36. [ Rod Hagen
    Posted Monday, December 6, 2010 at 8:32 pm | Permalink
    You don’t see any YET – but give it time it WILL happen.

    From what I can see, Frank, wiki-leaks don’t even think the Australian government rates a mention, let alone any poor centrelink recipient. Heck, outside of Australia even the Clinton- Rudd chat has simply been seen as newsworthy because she honestly suggested that it was hard for the US to be hard on China because they’ve got a mortgage on the US farm finances these days!
    ]

    You do not uinderstand – Wikileaks allows ANTYONE who has confidential information a conduit to post it.

    It is only a matter of time before Joe public’s private records will be leaked.

    But live in La La land where it is all sweetness and light.

  37. [by a circus court judge]

    Compadre, i am still loving this New Paradise where the wife of my friend is now my mistress 😉

  38. [The hardest questions for her, not surprisingly, are the ways her administration and agenda are different from those of Rudd’s.]

    Personally I don’t think she should even bother to respond to such stuff. There was nothing wrong with Rudd’s original agenda. It was simply his appallingly inadequate execution of it that produced the problems for Labor.

  39. [ Rod Hagen
    Posted Monday, December 6, 2010 at 8:32 pm | Permalink
    You don’t see any YET – but give it time it WILL happen.

    From what I can see, Frank, wiki-leaks don’t even think the Australian government rates a mention, let alone any poor centrelink recipient. Heck, outside of Australia even the Clinton- Rudd chat has simply been seen as newsworthy because she honestly suggested that it was hard for the US to be hard on China because they’ve got a mortgage on the US farm finances these days!
    ]

    Newspapers have legal implications if they publish – Wikileaks to date don;t.

    Get it ??

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