Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

The weekly Essential Research poll has the Coalition with a 51-49 two-party lead for the fourth week running. The Coalition primary vote is up a point to 45 per cent, with Labor steady on 38 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Respondents were also presented with a series of “party attributes&#148 to respond to, of which my favourite findings are that the Coalition is both more moderate and more extreme than Labor. The Liberals are thought to have a better team of leaders, understanding of the problems facing Australia, to be clearer about what they stand for and to be less inclined to make promises to win votes. However, they are also thought too close to big corporate and financial interests. Labor’s lead on “looks after the interests of working people” is narrower than one feels it ought to be. The two most emphatic responses were the 50 per cent who believed Labor would do anything to win votes and the 39 per cent who thought the Greens “extreme”.

Scepticism about climate change seems to have increased since the question was previously canvassed a year ago, with 45 per cent believing it to be happening and caused by human activity – down from 53 per cent – and 36 per cent believing “we are just witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate” (up from 34 per cent). Nonetheless, 61 per cent are willing to rate the issue as “important”, including majorities for each party support group. Labor are rated as best party to deal with the issue by 23 per cent, the Coalition by 29 per cent and the Greens on 19 per cent, representing little change on a year ago.

UPDATE: Roy Morgan has unexpectedly published results from its latest face-to-face poll on a Monday rather then the traditional Friday. These show Labor’s lead narrowing from 54-46 to 52.5-47.5, from primary votes of 40.5 per cent Labor (down half a point), 42 per cent Coalition (up two) and 12 per cent Greens (unchanged). This is Labor’s weakest result in a Morgan face-to-face poll since a week before the election, when their lead was 52-48. The poll was conducted on the weekends of November 20-21 and 27-28, from a sample of 1829.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

442 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. Dio
    [The papers that are releasing the stuff are left-wing papers; the NYT, the Guardian, der Spiegel, le Monde and el Pais.]
    Well then Dio the censoring must be coming from Wikileaks.

  2. Ron

    I actually agree with you. There was clearly nothing unethical in what Rudd-Clinton said. I don’t think it was in the public interest to disclose it.

    Whistle-blowing isn’t indiscriminate leaking of all material. It has to be raising a matter of alleged wrong-doing. Some of wikileaks is covered by that. Some of it doesn’t.

  3. Dee
    Abbott is intending to holiday in a caravan park near me!
    Would you like his autograph if I should happen to run into him?

  4. Dee,

    [Scorpio
    Do any of these polls give you cause for concern? ]

    The first couple did but now I’m sure that people have just switched off politics for the moment and just want the Government to get on with it.

    I don’t think there is any basic change in voting intention from the election. This is likely to go on like this for some time yet in my opinion.

    The only way they will change much, is when some buttons get pressed which catch people’s attention. Maybe after July next year we might see more movement.

  7. [However leaking on Iraq War mark 11 , rendering , Downer/Howard wheat offers to Iraq , full background on Haneeef & Hicks cynical politcal resons etc is legit info public should know]

    Yep, that’s pretty much my view as well. I don’t care what Obama thinks about Prince Andrew, and fail to see how it’s relevent to anything. But corrupt or unethical conduct by governments is something I think most people would prefer is made public.

  8. [Dio

    The papers that are releasing the stuff are left-wing papers; the NYT, the Guardian, der Spiegel, le Monde and el Pais.

    Well then Dio the censoring must be coming from Wikileaks.]

    *sighs*

  9. [Quo Vadis Vera? To sit on the fence with the Wikileaks project condemns you to the realm of the brain dead maggot brigade.]

    Amigo Vera, i think this is a war declaration. It’s time to fight the 300 Spartans again? i am ready.

  10. Further to my previous comment:
    [Well then Dio the censoring must be coming from Wikileaks.]
    Or as OH has said they may not have any info relating to the illegal invasion of Iraq or the wheat board because the leak was a set up with selective info to damage the government of the day.

  11. Some specifics diog. I tried a few but killing is worse than not killing, assault is worse than not assaulting – not breaching the crimes act better than breaching it – do you have specific examples where we outlaw the good and condone the bad? Perhaps alcohol and some illegal drugs? Meh

  12. There have been an awful lot of governments embarrassed by Wikileaks; Sri Lanka, Kenya, Peru, Saudi, Qatar, Yemen, Afghanistan, China and the US (and now us).

    I don’t know which of those are “right” or “left” but I doubt one political side has been singled out.

  14. [I sometimes wonder how long it will be before Ron decides that everyone (from Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott down) apart from himself and Joe DeBruen are “Greens” of one shade or another, and therefore bound to spend the rest of their lives in the purgatory that he personally reserves for such heretics! ]

    Is that a declaration of war on poor old Ron.

    He’s fighting a valiant battle mostly on his own, for the right to privacy of politicians discussing political matters with other politicians.

    Ron is like Caesar. He should be praised, not stabbed! 😉

  16. Diogenes
    Posted Monday, December 6, 2010 at 6:57 pm | Permalink

    Ron

    “I actually agree with you. There was clearly nothing unethical in what Rudd-Clinton said. I don’t think it was in the PUBLIC INTEREST to disclose it.

    Whistle-blowing isn’t indiscriminate leaking of all material. It has to be raising a matter of alleged wrong-doing. Some of wikileaks is covered by that. Some of it doesn’t.”

    This has been one of many many reasons since Friday in opposing Wikilleaks as i suggested oz and not just USA would get th iresponsible leaking of FA confidential cable leaking as well , and early on me and Jasmine & few othrs were anti and youse were pro , perhaps Kevin/Hillary cable was a deel breaker

    answer for greater transparency (if wished for) lies in improving our democratic institutions incl FOI & appeal processes , and i repeated i got no problams with that or legit whistle blowers Assange is undemocratic elected , perhaps selective in leaks who knows and is undiscrimimate in what published thats a rotten mix

  17. [do you have specific examples where we outlaw the good and condone the bad?]

    An awful lot of whistleblowers are attacked by governments. The vitriol directed at Wilkie was amazing. Howie’s govt talked about charging him. A specific example was the airport security guy who was charged for revealing how crap our security is after administration repeatedly ignored him.

    Technically, I can get sacked for publicly criticising the SA health system as I work for it. I imagine many people here are the same.

  18. dave,

    [Gillard on 730 with red kerry tonight. ]

    I hope she lays it on so thick about Abbott being too gutless to face Red Kerry before he finishes up that Abbott is forced on just to save face.

    A good opportunity for Kezza to really rip him one good & proper for old times sake.

    One can only wish! 😉

  20. I’m struggling to understand JBishop’s decision to use Wikileaks for political gain. Many on the coalition front bench were Cabinet Ministers in the Howard govt, including Bishop herself. If something were to come out from the Howard years, she will now look even more like an opportunist and dent her credibility even further. Surely the prudent thing for her to do is stay silent?

  21. Amigo
    I missed that!!! What a cheek 😡
    William must have had it in the sin bin for awhile 😉

    Brain dead maggotts ,,, hmm wonder what they taste like grilled with a crispy side salad

  23. By far the most interesting statistic of this poll is;

    whether global warming is happening – down from 53% to 45%, and

    we experiencing cyclical nature of earths climate – up from 34% to 36%.

    It’s going good 😆

  24. Now the Amigos (Amigas??)are also fighting:

    [U.S. expresses regrets over Wikileaks revelations: Chilean FM – SANTIAGO, Dec. 1 (Xinhua) — Chilean Foreign Minister Alfredo Moreno said on Wednesday a senior U.S. official called him to express regret over the disclosure of U.S. documents by Wikileaks.

    “Yesterday (Tuesday) I talked to William Burns, the third person in charge at the U.S. State Department, who called to talk about the issue,” Moreno told reporters.

    “They do not know what is going to be published about our country or about the rest of the countries, but he called to tell me that he regrets this situation and the problems it has created,” Moreno said.

    On Monday, Moreno received a phone call from the U.S. embassy warning him about possible allusions of Chilean public officers in the documents released by Wikileaks on the Internet.

    Moreno said, “Whatever the content is, it must be judged as a private conversation. I think that anyone can understand that, but we will see when we have the information.”

    Spanish newspaper El Pais reported on Tuesday the documents may contain comments by former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet about Argentine President Cristina Fernandez.

    WikiLeaks has recently released more than 250,000 confidential U.S. cables, exposing the inner workings of U.S. diplomacy, including extremely candid assessments of world leaders. ]

  25. Vera,

    [Brain dead maggotts ,,, hmm wonder what they taste like]

    They showed Abbott eating an absolute whopper, yesterday on Insiders! 😉

  27. [hmm wonder what they taste like grilled with a crispy side salad]

    Dunno about a side salad vera, but Tone ate one raw when he got lost on one of his outback adventures. You can put it to him when he comes to your town! 😀

  28. [ Dee
    Posted Monday, December 6, 2010 at 7:13 pm | Permalink
    Gusface
    Who is to say that there is not something subversive going on?
    We don’t know do we?
    ]

    THe Wikilovers are being played by a string quartet and are being lulled into a false sense of security.

    They will get a stark reality when there is enough mistrust of Left Govts that Palin and abbott will coast in 🙂

  31. scorps
    yes Tone likes putting wriggly things in his mouth
    I think that could be why he umm and ahhs so much, rolling his tongue to stop them escaping 🙂

  35. When you look at what the latest wikileaks have produced, perhaps there is a case for saying our governments are actually pretty straight. Perhaps they are saving the best for last, but if all that is going to be revealed is some gossip about personalities and discussions of worst case scenarios which it would be negligent not to have, then so far we can hardly condemn democracy.

    For those criticising wikileaks, was the gunship footgage of civilians being mown down not worthwhile? Just as wikileaks might have cost lives, they may have also saved some if it made just one helicopter gunner consider his or her targets more carefully.

    Extraordinary today to hear Julie Bishop defending Assange. Say what you like about them but the Libs have no shame whatsoever. They see which way the wind is blowing and say whatever the public wants to hear. Then they turn around and claim the government is focus group driven. It is breathtaking in its audacity and they get away with it month after month.

  36. In the end this will end up being all about the behaviour and nature of the USA.

    [Stephens today denounced the extradition warrant as a “political stunt” and said Assange would fight deportation to Sweden on the grounds that it could lead to him being handed over to the US, where senior politicians have called for him to be executed.

    The former vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin has described him as “an anti-American operative with blood on his hands” and called for him to be hunted down like a Taliban leader, while another senior Republican, Mike Huckabee, has said that “anything less than execution is too kind a penalty” for his actions.]

  38. confessions
    [If something were to come out from the Howard years, she will now look even more like an opportunist and dent her credibility even further. Surely the prudent thing for her to do is stay silent?]
    I thought the government & the opposition were briefed on what was coming from Wikileaks. Perhaps there will be no dirt on the Howard regime. 😛

  39. [But Mr Stephens on Monday said that Sweden’s chief prosecutor had told Mr Assange in September that there was no case for him to answer, following complaints against him by two women, but the investigation was revived following the intervention of a Swedish politician. He said that Swedish prosecutors knew where Mr Assange was and urged them to call him to discuss the case.]

    Can’t see how an extradition order would be successful given the obvious political nature of the Interpol notice. (for condomless sex)

  40. centre
    with all the water about from the floods I’m surprised Tone hasn’t got the budgies out of retirement and gone into action mode again. I can see him now striding out of the torrents a rescued sheep over each shoulder ….

  41. myasma
    Posted Monday, December 6, 2010 at 6:30 pm | Permalink

    “Quo Vadis Vera? To sit on the fence with the Wikileaks project condemns you to the realm of the brain dead maggot brigade. The only point McClennand made today was that he was well and truly in the ’suckhole’ to the US Club. ”

    another Green zealot , attacking amigo Vera means you will be done , slow

  44. [The papers that are releasing the stuff are left-wing papers; the NYT, the Guardian, der Spiegel, le Monde and el Pais]

    I am not sure Le Monde is considered left-wing, I always understood it prided itself on being independent and “centrist” if anything.

    In any case, most of the releases so far, at least those relating to Australia, fail the public interest test and are just mischief making.

    Not sure whether that’s because of the press or Wikileaks themselves. Time will tell.

    I am concerned that it seems to be unduly targeting Obama administration and the Rudd/Gillard Government. Again, this could simply because the cables were obtained when these were in power, but we shall see. (I note they embarrased several European right-wing leaders, including Sarkozy and that Italian clown whose name I cannot recall).

    Nonetheless, in the Anglo-Saxon context at least, there is a very rightist whiff about these cables so far, particular given J Bishop’s posturing today, that is mildly concerning.

  47. Vera
    [Dee
    Abbott is intending to holiday in a caravan park near me!
    Would you like his autograph if I should happen to run into him?]

    No thanks! 😡

  48. Darren Laver
    Posted Monday, December 6, 2010 at 7:32 pm | Permalink

    “In any case, most of the releases so far, at least those relating to Australia, fail the public interest test and are just mischief making. ”

    yes Darren agree , undiscriminate , gross harmful diplomatically re Kevin/Hillary private cables released , gossip on prince william and as Kevin Rudd said ‘helps nobody” (except Assange)

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