Morgan phone poll: 55-45 to Coalition

The sample size (550 respondents) and margin of error (about 4.2 per cent) are such that you would want to treat it with caution, but a new Morgan phone poll has turned up remarkably poor results for the government: Labor’s primary vote is on just 30 per cent against 47 per cent for the Coalition and 13.5 per cent for the Greens, with the Coalition leading on two-party preferred 55-45. The poll was conducted over Wednesday and Thursday evenings.

UPDATE: Morgan has issued further data on personal ratings which shows Julia Gillard failing to take the hit on personal ratings you would expect from the numbers on voting intention, which further inclines me to treat the poll with suspicion. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is 48 per cent with 39 per cent disapproval, while Tony Abbott’s numbers are 48 per cent and 41 per cent. Gillard holds a 46-40 lead as preferred prime minister. Respondents were also asked to nominate their preferred leaders for the Labor and Liberal parties. Julia Gillard is favoured as Labor leader by 33 per cent against 20 per cent for Kevin Rudd, compared with 35 per cent and 25 per cent shortly after the federal election. Malcolm Turnbull remains favoured ahead of Tony Abbott as Liberal leader overall, by 31 per cent (down a point) to 23 per cent (up two). In both cases supporters of the party were happier with the incumbent. If Gillard were removed from the picture, 27 per cent would favour Rudd, 14 per cent Wayne Swan, 13 per cent Stephen Smith and 11 per cent Bill Shorten. Without Abbott, 39 per cent would favour Turnbull, 30 per cent Joe Hockey and 11 per cent Julie Bishop.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,783 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 55-45 to Coalition”

Comments Page 56 of 56
1 55 56
  1. SK
    [The OO has again dressed up opinion as fact in its articles relating to the banking package. This is getting to a point where it is almost farcical. PBr’s are able to predict exactly what their opinion is without fail. But the bit I find absurd is that that are outright lies about facts and dates, which are readily checked and found to be incorrect in about 30 seconds, but they insist on perpetuating lies.]
    Worse still! They keep getting away with it. Surely there must be a law that can be enacted to ensure we get accurate information.

  2. jaundiced view

    “That mole Arbib would be frothing at the mouth if we refused, for one.”

    Given your Bob Brown has admitted being at FA social gatherings , he is th more likely mole , espec after seeing his other public crazy ideas

    (BTW , where is th cable ‘opinions’ of HIS private converse’s

  3. blue_green,

    It really depends on what it exposes. If the remaining cables are just titallating, I think it will be business as usual. However, if it releases informaton that is much more damaging to anyone diplomatic player (and my guess it will be more damaging of US actions) it could change the state of play. But if it is so damaging maybe it needs to be addressed.
    Unfortunately, the way this is all being drip fed, we can only sit it out and wait for the train wreck to play out.

  4. Another section of our extradition treaty with the US says:

    “The request shall be accompanied by a description of the person
    sought, a statement of the facts of the case, the text of the applicable laws of the requesting State including the law defining the offence, the law prescribing the punishment for the offence and the law relating to the limitation of the legal

    It seems the US would have great difficulty satisfying those requirements, going on the generalised lynch-mob rhetoric we have been hearing from them so far.

  5. SK

    No diplomat is ever going to come out and say- no one is talking to me anymore; I am not getting the intel I once used to get.

    And if notional alliances shift and some become friendlier and others colder, we will never be able to pinpoint it to an event like wikileaks.

  6. Tp @ 611

    [ Then ministers of government in Australia come out and infer Ozymandias has committed an illegal act, or every Australians expects Ozymandias should face the law for his acts.


    So first it was that Plibersek ‘implied’ Assange’s guilt -and I failed to find any implication in the words of hers you quoted- and now you say she ‘inferred’ said guilt -but I fail to find any inference, either.

    Am I missing something in Plibersek’s statement? Thomas Paine, can you explain in a little more detail how she has “defamed” Assange?

    BTW, I think your claim that Plibersek is in breach of Australian defamation laws may itself be defamatory.

  7. I want to know why if someone signs a contact to borrow a heap of money and then sees a better offer on interest rates up the road they will be shortly able to just move with no penalty when a depositor who can see a better offer on interest rates up the road is penalized by receiving just .1 percent for the entire period of their deposit which in some circumstances can make a mortgage exit fee look like chicken feed. I guess that the non stop bleating by the press for the last three years about the poor bloody mortgage holders just had to have an effect sometime.

  8. deblonay
    Posted Monday, December 13, 2010 at 1:34 pm | Permalink

    “Even for a lightweight like Plibesek her statement can only be described as bizarre.! ”

    smearing a Labor Govt Minister as a uninportant , how very Green

  9. [BTW, I think your claim that Plibersek is in breach of Australian defamation laws may itself be defamatory.]

    Government Minister sues fictitious historical figure on blog site.

  10. Go on ALP members in Sydney

    Get stuck in (and then bring us back the goss)

    [ALP Review 2010 comes to Sydney

    Trades Hall Auditorium
    Following the 2010 federal election, it is more important than ever for Labor to look at how we can improve our Party so that it continues to campaign effectively, but also represents the views and aspirations of progressive Australians.

    So that we can properly do this as a Party, we have appointed three senior leaders in the Labor Party to conduct a thorough review of the Party and to make recommendations for how we can improve our work and community connections.

    The review is led by a panel of three very well known Labor Party figures: Former Victorian Premier Steve Bracks, Senator John Faulkner and Bob Carr, the former Premier of New South Wales. These three individuals have a long record of working to secure Labor’s best interests and all have strong histories working in our Party from its grassroots through to its senior levels.

    The review will look at our campaigning ability as a party, but also look at how we can improve our Party organisationally so that we are more inclusive.

    You can have your say by attending the Sydney consultation. The details are below:

    When: 6 for 6.30pm, Thursday 16 December 2010

    Where: Trades Hall Auditorium, entry via 377 Sussex St, Sydney


    RSVP Details
    Respond by: 10.12.2010]

  11. I’m going to take the advice and keep out of the kitchen after this but I just don’t believe the following statements have been shown to be more than paranoid hype, that is not to say I believe they are all untrue, I’m just not sure:

    they have enlightened the masses about what is being done in their name

    – I think this is absurdly optimistic on so many levels they should have been embarrassed to publish it. Far from a complete picture of what is being ‘done in their name, wikileaks has provided a series of select (by whom and for what) communications of a fairly low level. For example do we really know if they Rudd leaks were just sprounting the newspapers of the time, or were arbib, and do we know if they were embraced and actioned in either the US’s name or against Australia’s?

    corruption, incompetence – and sometimes wisdom

    – ho hum every where there are people you are going to have these three things in some balance … corruption is being used very very widely in this context so widely in fact it hurts efforts to reduce real incompetence, the very best case is NSW where if a backbenchers staffer gets a parking fine it is called corruption.

    we have been given a snapshot of the world as it is, rather than the edited account agreed upon by diverse elites

    – I have already addressed the absurdity of generalising the wikileaks as ‘a snapshot of the world as it is’

    diverse elites, whose only common interest is the maintenance of their power and our ignorance

    – this is where the cultists really really really lose me. Yes everywhere you go from the school tuckshop through to diplomatic levels and even corporations there are evil people who put power and personal interest in front of country, company, etc … they are everywhere you go … try to think of just one job where everyone involved was holy and upright … but to characterise the whole international diplomatic organisation as totally and absolutely corrupt is the most bizarre conspiracy theory ever expressed. Once you believe that all governments are evil the implication is obvious. Lets all believe they faked the moon landing the CIA killed JFK Holt went to Russia and they control our minds through TV advertisments … they are all much more rational beliefs.

  12. Space Kiddette

    Just remember there will never ever be a wikileaks headline

    [Govt makes good decision and everything goes well]

    It doesn’t make for good ‘news’.

    So the cherrypicking of these things will never, ever look good on an incumbent.

  13. [
    Is she a factional mate of Arbib…in which case the US Embassy may be having an input..they both may be on a drip-fed !

    I forgot that the CIA were in control of the Australian Government. How silly of me.

  14. [The US justice department has been looking into a range of criminal charges, including violations of the 1917 Espionage Act, that could be filed in the WikiLeaks case involving the release of hundreds of confidential and classified US diplomatic cables.]

    From my previous post on Assange documentary (ABC news)

  15. [I forgot that the CIA were in control of the Australian Government. How silly of me.]

    The interesting thing is that the CIA is so big, and has so much information they probably would need to do a complex database search that took three weeks to work out where Australia is.

  16. [
    The interesting thing is that the CIA is so big, and has so much information they probably would need to do a complex database search that took three weeks to work out where Australia is.

    bg, maybe they have mistaken us for Austria 😆

  17. [Ron
    Posted Monday, December 13, 2010 at 1:55 pm | Permalink

    Blue green

    there is one tonite in Melb town]

    I hope a PBer goes to one. It was be interesting to here how these things are done and what is raised.

    Will it be climate backflips, or the approach to the media, or something more glib that comes up.

  18. this is why wikileaks is vital so we don’t hear about this in 60 years time and we hear about it and act on it now:

    [CIA files reveal aid for Nazis Sam Roberts, New York
    December 13, 2010

    AFTER World War II, American counterintelligence recruited former Gestapo officers, SS veterans and Nazi collaborators to a greater extent than previously disclosed and helped many avoid prosecution or looked the other way when they escaped, according to thousands of newly declassified documents.

    With the Soviet Union muscling in on Eastern Europe, ”settling scores with Germans or German collaborators seemed less pressing; in some cases, it even appeared counterproductive,” said a government report published at the weekend by the National Archives.

    ”When the Klaus Barbie story broke, about his escaping with American help to Bolivia, we thought there weren’t any more stories like that,” said Norman J. W. Goda, a University of Florida professor and co-author of the report with professor Richard Breitman of American University. ”What we found in the record is that there were a fair number, and that it seems more systematic.”

    Advertisement: Story continues below In chilling detail, the report also elaborates on the close relationship between Nazi leaders and the grand mufti of Jerusalem, Haj Amin al-Husseini, who later claimed that he sought refuge in wartime Germany only to avoid arrest by the British.

    In fact, the report says, the Muslim leader was paid ”an absolute fortune” of 50,000 marks a month (when a German field marshal was making 25,000 marks a year). It also said he energetically recruited Muslims for the SS, the Nazi Party’s elite military command, and was promised that he would be made leader of Palestine after German troops drove out the British and exterminated more than 350,000 Jews there.

    On November 28, 1941, the authors say, Hitler told al-Husseini that the Afrika Korps and German troops deployed from the Caucasus region would liberate Arabs in the Middle East and that ”Germany’s only objective there would be the destruction of the Jews”.

    The report details how al-Husseini was allowed to flee after the war to Syria and how high-ranking Nazis escaped Germany to become advisers to anti-Israeli Arab leaders.

    ”We have more detailed scholarly accounts today of al-Husseini’s wartime activities, but al-Husseini’s CIA file indicates that wartime Allied intelligence organisations gathered a healthy portion of this incriminating evidence,” the report says. ”This evidence is significant in light of al-Husseini’s lenient postwar treatment.” He died in Beirut in 1974.

    The report, Hitler’s Shadow: Nazi War Criminals, US Intelligence and the Cold War, grew out of an interagency group created by Congress to identify, declassify and release federal records on Nazi war crimes and on Allied efforts to hold war criminals accountable. It is drawn from a sampling of 1100 CIA files and 1.2 million army counterintelligence files that were not declassified until 2007.


  19. WHY ?

    Assange says he is intersted in oz polics very close , YET there is NOT a sherrick of evidense in th oz-related leaked classifiyed cables showing th oz Labor Govt has comit any corrupton nor any ilegal act at all !!!! ,

    and thuss making Wikileaks oz -related leakng as NOT a whistle blowers actions but simple an anti gossip column for th MSN

    where IS th oz Labor Govt guilty of coruption/ilegal acts on these oz -related stolen leaked cables

  20. The extradition treaty between the US and Sweden differs somewhat to our own. In Sweden, if the alleged offence was committed outside the US’s territory, then there is no obligation on Sweden to hand the person over. It is also a requirement for the US to make out a preliminary case on the evidence.

    Assange is lucky the decision is not about extradition direct from the UK to the US, because the UK/US treaty (revised in 2003) is very one-sided, and now requires only ‘reasonable suspicion’ instead of a prima facie case.

    The Swedish treaty:

  21. WHY ?

    is freedom of speech trashed to hav th freeom of speech rite to hav a private converse kept private at a FA social function instead of publihised denying rite of privacy of private converses that is on of very fundamentels of freedom of speech

  22. Spectator
    [AFTER World War II, American counterintelligence recruited former Gestapo officers, SS veterans and Nazi collaborators to a greater extent than previously disclosed and helped many avoid prosecution or looked the other way when they escaped, according to thousands of newly declassified documents.]
    According to thousands of newly declassified documents? I have known about this for years & thought it was common knowledge.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 56 of 56
1 55 56