Morgan phone poll: 55-45 to Coalition

The sample size (550 respondents) and margin of error (about 4.2 per cent) are such that you would want to treat it with caution, but a new Morgan phone poll has turned up remarkably poor results for the government: Labor’s primary vote is on just 30 per cent against 47 per cent for the Coalition and 13.5 per cent for the Greens, with the Coalition leading on two-party preferred 55-45. The poll was conducted over Wednesday and Thursday evenings.

UPDATE: Morgan has issued further data on personal ratings which shows Julia Gillard failing to take the hit on personal ratings you would expect from the numbers on voting intention, which further inclines me to treat the poll with suspicion. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is 48 per cent with 39 per cent disapproval, while Tony Abbott’s numbers are 48 per cent and 41 per cent. Gillard holds a 46-40 lead as preferred prime minister. Respondents were also asked to nominate their preferred leaders for the Labor and Liberal parties. Julia Gillard is favoured as Labor leader by 33 per cent against 20 per cent for Kevin Rudd, compared with 35 per cent and 25 per cent shortly after the federal election. Malcolm Turnbull remains favoured ahead of Tony Abbott as Liberal leader overall, by 31 per cent (down a point) to 23 per cent (up two). In both cases supporters of the party were happier with the incumbent. If Gillard were removed from the picture, 27 per cent would favour Rudd, 14 per cent Wayne Swan, 13 per cent Stephen Smith and 11 per cent Bill Shorten. Without Abbott, 39 per cent would favour Turnbull, 30 per cent Joe Hockey and 11 per cent Julie Bishop.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,783 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. Note Independetns were 9.5% – almost doubled. That bit looks odd and is irrelevant in that at an election very few people would actually have a choice of an independent that they would recognise and would have to vote for someone else.

  2. They should either double or triple the sample size or take it less often. For all the insight it offers they may as well not bother.


    Mr Swan said diplomats and politicians are involved in thousands of conversations.
    “I don’t think anybody can assume that just because something is in a diplomatic cable that the reportage in that diplomatic cable is accurate or well grounded or in context,”

    Wayne Swan’s nice way of saying ANY diplomatic cable info can be garbage ,so therefore NO classifed diplomatic cable info of ‘FA social conversations’ could hav any ‘public importance info value’ to be published ,

    thereby demolishing th hole basis of Wikileaks leaking FA social functons conversations

    Kevin Rudd has said regarding leaking classified inta Govt FA formal meetings of conversations
    โ€œTherefore we in Australia condemn the release of this material. It helps nobody.โ€
    Kevin Rudd expozed why Wiki s leaking FA formal meetings iresponsible & of negative public importanse value

    Why any Labor PBers seems shy to ignore th unambigous expert public advice of Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan demolishing th whole justification for Wiki’s leaking in BOTH abov areas of classified FA cables conversatons ,
    and instead listen to th generic nonsense put up Gusface Rod Hagen & diogenes etc

    Labor PBers instead should suport Rudd and Swan’s expert , informed & logical arguments in opposing Wilielaks leaking FA cables We know greens bloggers wont

  4. So the best it could be for primary is 34 Lab – 43 Coal.
    With the oppn plus the media saying the govt is RS, perhaps they were lucky to get any votes at all.

  5. The primary vote of the ALP down to 30%? I asked some months ago what the strategy for winning back the PV from the Greens (and now the independents too by the look of it) would be, given that Labor under the current factional regime spurns the progressive vote.

    No answer was forthcoming from anyone in the party. The answer would also appear to have so far eluded the party leadership, on these figures.

  6. The fact is that probably the poll lead,as William says”is real
    It was taken mid-week and MUST reflect the very angry response to Gillard;s statement on ASSENGE..What else could it be ?

    I know Frank has a low opinion of his fellow citizens and says in the Suburbs they think only of shopping and Oprah…but I suspect this polls shows he’s wrong.!!
    Of course the unmasking of”Mata Hari”Arbib has damaged the Government’s position too
    Oakshot has now joined Wilkie in a critique of Gillard,who in fact hangs by a thread !

  7. Ron,

    I agree with Wayne’s claim of just because they say so doesn’t make it true, however, it doesn’t make it not true either. But if it does provide insight as to the machinations the US government and their less than honest role in some very serious historical events then I believe it does help.

  8. Proof that Wilileaks is an anti-Labor plot to remove a democratically elected Government.

    Enjoy WorkChoices where you will all be slaves.


    And you know it

  9. victoria

    You are always so firm and confident when times are dark. Stick with it, girl, and you’ll hold the rest of us up. ๐Ÿ˜†

  10. Newspoll 50-50, then this two weeks before Christmas, who cares.

    Once Santa comes, drinks are drunk who will remember ?

    Start to take a good look at polls next year.

  11. [Laborโ€™s primary vote is on just 30 per cent]

    [Mr Swan said diplomats and politicians are involved in thousands of conversations.]

    Danger Danger Will Robison!

    The danger is that the public will start assuming they know this government and stop listening to what they say in the future. They will begin to stop hearing and go with their assumptions.

    This WikiLeaks business and the way that the Govt is handling it could end up the last straw for the public and they will ‘lock in’ Gillard Govt no good.

  12. Well, Possum had better be right about polls not mattering at the moment, otherwise Gillard has just plumbed Iemma/Rees/Keneally-style depths and well and truly passed the point of no return.

  13. SK

    According to some, the indies will throw their support behind Abbott now because the coalition are not US lap dogs? Have I got it right?

  14. โ€œIโ€™m surprised they arrested the man and I didnโ€™t see any protest,โ€ Lula said at an event today in Brasilia. โ€œThe guy was just posting what he read.โ€]
    Finns I wonder did Lula phone his old mate Kev? they sing the same tune, yes? ๐Ÿ™‚

  15. Diogenes

    Oh yeah and it was slavery the last time the Liberals was in power? Which chain gang were you in?

    I am going to suggest very little has change in the workplace over the last 4 years

    The employers are out to make money, the employee is out to make money, some smart employers had actually figured out that sometimes happy employees make more money for them …. it does occassionally happen

  16. Oakshot was on ABC radio an hour ago !
    The poll is significant in showing an Indep/Green vote at 23%..and Labor on a record lo
    of 30%
    The drama Queen is of course Queen Julia in what might a very dark drama !

  17. re Oprah

    Don’t think it will be a vote winner for Gillard sharing a stage with her

    Abbott will no doubt pop up and say wtte “why is she fawning over American TV stars and not visiting the flood victims”

    Just you wait and see!

  18. TP 24 – I do agree that many people may “lock in” a vote against Gillard and Labor – not with any massive angst [us posters here are not a representative sample of most people’s attitude to politics!], just with a “use by 2013” attached to it.

    2011 will thus be interesting – first half Labor will have to outline what they are going to do in Government. And second half Labor will have to start doing it (with new Senate).

    My guess is that Abbott’s bluster will peter out mid-year and that he will replaced just before the end of the year (not sure by whom) and this new leader will then have an excellent chance of winning in 2013.

  19. So who the heck is this WA spinner Michael Beer?
    Been named in test squad

    IN Hughes Smith Johnson and Beer

    Out North, Doherty and Bollinger (Katich injured)

  20. Thomas Paine,

    [ Laborโ€™s primary vote is on just 30 per cent ]

    Funny, I seem to remember people saying that Rudd’s position was untenable with a primary vote of 35%.

    Boy o boy, wouldn’t the Labor brains trust like to see figures like that now.

  21. RR

    People are not going to lock in a vote on something as trivial as Wikileak

    Like gossip magazine reporting, if they are wrong someone will sue them and make them go bankrupt

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