The sample size (550 respondents) and margin of error (about 4.2 per cent) are such that you would want to treat it with caution, but a new Morgan phone poll has turned up remarkably poor results for the government: Labor’s primary vote is on just 30 per cent against 47 per cent for the Coalition and 13.5 per cent for the Greens, with the Coalition leading on two-party preferred 55-45. The poll was conducted over Wednesday and Thursday evenings.
UPDATE: Morgan has issued further data on personal ratings which shows Julia Gillard failing to take the hit on personal ratings you would expect from the numbers on voting intention, which further inclines me to treat the poll with suspicion. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is 48 per cent with 39 per cent disapproval, while Tony Abbott’s numbers are 48 per cent and 41 per cent. Gillard holds a 46-40 lead as preferred prime minister. Respondents were also asked to nominate their preferred leaders for the Labor and Liberal parties. Julia Gillard is favoured as Labor leader by 33 per cent against 20 per cent for Kevin Rudd, compared with 35 per cent and 25 per cent shortly after the federal election. Malcolm Turnbull remains favoured ahead of Tony Abbott as Liberal leader overall, by 31 per cent (down a point) to 23 per cent (up two). In both cases supporters of the party were happier with the incumbent. If Gillard were removed from the picture, 27 per cent would favour Rudd, 14 per cent Wayne Swan, 13 per cent Stephen Smith and 11 per cent Bill Shorten. Without Abbott, 39 per cent would favour Turnbull, 30 per cent Joe Hockey and 11 per cent Julie Bishop.
This poll looks like another anomoly. The changes are to great to make it real.
Note Independetns were 9.5% – almost doubled. That bit looks odd and is irrelevant in that at an election very few people would actually have a choice of an independent that they would recognise and would have to vote for someone else.
Margin of error is 4.2%
ie the Liberal vote could be anywhere between 50.8% to 59.2%
They might as well say we have no idea
dovif
for once I agree with you 🙂
[They might as well say we have no idea]
About the size of the lead perhaps, but we can state with high confidence that the lead itself is real.
They should either double or triple the sample size or take it less often. For all the insight it offers they may as well not bother.
WAYNE SWAN RIDICULES WIKI LEAKING DIPLOMATIC LEAKS
Mr Swan said diplomats and politicians are involved in thousands of conversations.
“I don’t think anybody can assume that just because something is in a diplomatic cable that the reportage in that diplomatic cable is accurate or well grounded or in context,”
Wayne Swan’s nice way of saying ANY diplomatic cable info can be garbage ,so therefore NO classifed diplomatic cable info of ‘FA social conversations’ could hav any ‘public importance info value’ to be published ,
thereby demolishing th hole basis of Wikileaks leaking FA social functons conversations
Kevin Rudd has said regarding leaking classified inta Govt FA formal meetings of conversations
“Therefore we in Australia condemn the release of this material. It helps nobody.”
http://www.crikey.com.au/2010/12/06/the-canberra-cables-not-the-first-time-rudd-will-feature/
Kevin Rudd expozed why Wiki s leaking FA formal meetings iresponsible & of negative public importanse value
Why any Labor PBers seems shy to ignore th unambigous expert public advice of Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan demolishing th whole justification for Wiki’s leaking in BOTH abov areas of classified FA cables conversatons ,
and instead listen to th generic nonsense put up Gusface Rod Hagen & diogenes etc
Labor PBers instead should suport Rudd and Swan’s expert , informed & logical arguments in opposing Wilielaks leaking FA cables We know greens bloggers wont
It appears Julia will most likely meet with Oprah at Crown Casino around 4.00 pm today.
So the best it could be for primary is 34 Lab – 43 Coal.
With the oppn plus the media saying the govt is RS, perhaps they were lucky to get any votes at all.
The primary vote of the ALP down to 30%? I asked some months ago what the strategy for winning back the PV from the Greens (and now the independents too by the look of it) would be, given that Labor under the current factional regime spurns the progressive vote.
No answer was forthcoming from anyone in the party. The answer would also appear to have so far eluded the party leadership, on these figures.
lizzie
I believe the govt will get its stride after July next year when the new Senate starts.
The fact is that probably the poll lead,as William says”is real
It was taken mid-week and MUST reflect the very angry response to Gillard;s statement on ASSENGE..What else could it be ?
I know Frank has a low opinion of his fellow citizens and says in the Suburbs they think only of shopping and Oprah…but I suspect this polls shows he’s wrong.!!
Of course the unmasking of”Mata Hari”Arbib has damaged the Government’s position too
Oakshot has now joined Wilkie in a critique of Gillard,who in fact hangs by a thread !
Ron
They aren’t exactly opposing the leaks. They’re saying that there’s no need to take any notice of them.
Ron,
I agree with Wayne’s claim of just because they say so doesn’t make it true, however, it doesn’t make it not true either. But if it does provide insight as to the machinations the US government and their less than honest role in some very serious historical events then I believe it does help.
deblonay
stop being a drama queen.
Proof that Wilileaks is an anti-Labor plot to remove a democratically elected Government.
Enjoy WorkChoices where you will all be slaves.
Fact
And you know it
Diogenes
have you inhabitated Frank’s persona?
victoria
You are always so firm and confident when times are dark. Stick with it, girl, and you’ll hold the rest of us up. 😆
lizzie
you would know as well as I do. Life ebbs and flows. Got to go with the punches 😉
Newspoll 50-50, then this two weeks before Christmas, who cares.
Once Santa comes, drinks are drunk who will remember ?
Start to take a good look at polls next year.
victoria,
Dio as Frank. That is a scary thought! 🙂
SK
scary or crazy 🙂
Appears to be a change in timetable for Oprah’s appearance at Fed Square today
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/12/10/3090355.htm?section=justin
[Labor’s primary vote is on just 30 per cent]
[Mr Swan said diplomats and politicians are involved in thousands of conversations.]
Danger Danger Will Robison!
The danger is that the public will start assuming they know this government and stop listening to what they say in the future. They will begin to stop hearing and go with their assumptions.
This WikiLeaks business and the way that the Govt is handling it could end up the last straw for the public and they will ‘lock in’ Gillard Govt no good.
deblonay,
where is this oakeshott link?
Diogenes
What, you’ve moved out of la la land? Pot, did you take kettle?
Well, Possum had better be right about polls not mattering at the moment, otherwise Gillard has just plumbed Iemma/Rees/Keneally-style depths and well and truly passed the point of no return.
Interesting Timing:
Watergate tapes released.
http://edition.cnn.com/2010/US/12/09/california.nixon/index.html?hpt=C2
Swan proves it is business as usual:
http://www.smh.com.au/business/swan-backs-small-banks-ahead-of-reforms-20101210-18s53.html
itsthevibe
is there a federal election coming up?
victoria,
Seems to be a minor detail for most.
Hundreds rally in support of Assange.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/12/10/3090312.htm?section=justin
SK
According to some, the indies will throw their support behind Abbott now because the coalition are not US lap dogs? Have I got it right?
Diogenes
Oh yeah and it was slavery the last time the Liberals was in power? Which chain gang were you in?
I am going to suggest very little has change in the workplace over the last 4 years
The employers are out to make money, the employee is out to make money, some smart employers had actually figured out that sometimes happy employees make more money for them …. it does occassionally happen
Oakshot was on ABC radio an hour ago !
The poll is significant in showing an Indep/Green vote at 23%..and Labor on a record lo
of 30%
The drama Queen is of course Queen Julia in what might a very dark drama !
Victoria,
Hilarious! 😈
deblonay
with all due respect, take your hand off it!
I just thought I’d get it out of the way before the conspiracy theorists say it.
Diogenes
I think you were channelling Frank 😉
re Oprah
Don’t think it will be a vote winner for Gillard sharing a stage with her
Abbott will no doubt pop up and say wtte “why is she fawning over American TV stars and not visiting the flood victims”
Just you wait and see!
vera
Ted Ballieu our new Premier will also share the stage with Oprah and Julia. Will Abbott complain about him being there?
Victoria
No of course not!He won’t mention big ted 😉
TP 24 – I do agree that many people may “lock in” a vote against Gillard and Labor – not with any massive angst [us posters here are not a representative sample of most people’s attitude to politics!], just with a “use by 2013” attached to it.
2011 will thus be interesting – first half Labor will have to outline what they are going to do in Government. And second half Labor will have to start doing it (with new Senate).
My guess is that Abbott’s bluster will peter out mid-year and that he will replaced just before the end of the year (not sure by whom) and this new leader will then have an excellent chance of winning in 2013.
victoria sorry for not answering sooner, had a problem at work to sort.
Here is a news item relating to the McClelland pc
Will try to find a link to the whole thing, it was very fiery…McClelland is not good under pressure, which for the countries No1 lawyer is odd.
http://www.skynews.com.au/national/article.aspx?id=550231&vId=
Vic
It was the KoolAid speaking. 🙂
So who the heck is this WA spinner Michael Beer?
Been named in test squad
IN Hughes Smith Johnson and Beer
Out North, Doherty and Bollinger (Katich injured)
Thomas Paine,
[ Labor’s primary vote is on just 30 per cent ]
Funny, I seem to remember people saying that Rudd’s position was untenable with a primary vote of 35%.
Boy o boy, wouldn’t the Labor brains trust like to see figures like that now.
RR
People are not going to lock in a vote on something as trivial as Wikileak
Like gossip magazine reporting, if they are wrong someone will sue them and make them go bankrupt
David
Thanks. Much appreciated