Morgan phone poll: 55-45 to Coalition

The sample size (550 respondents) and margin of error (about 4.2 per cent) are such that you would want to treat it with caution, but a new Morgan phone poll has turned up remarkably poor results for the government: Labor’s primary vote is on just 30 per cent against 47 per cent for the Coalition and 13.5 per cent for the Greens, with the Coalition leading on two-party preferred 55-45. The poll was conducted over Wednesday and Thursday evenings.

UPDATE: Morgan has issued further data on personal ratings which shows Julia Gillard failing to take the hit on personal ratings you would expect from the numbers on voting intention, which further inclines me to treat the poll with suspicion. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is 48 per cent with 39 per cent disapproval, while Tony Abbott’s numbers are 48 per cent and 41 per cent. Gillard holds a 46-40 lead as preferred prime minister. Respondents were also asked to nominate their preferred leaders for the Labor and Liberal parties. Julia Gillard is favoured as Labor leader by 33 per cent against 20 per cent for Kevin Rudd, compared with 35 per cent and 25 per cent shortly after the federal election. Malcolm Turnbull remains favoured ahead of Tony Abbott as Liberal leader overall, by 31 per cent (down a point) to 23 per cent (up two). In both cases supporters of the party were happier with the incumbent. If Gillard were removed from the picture, 27 per cent would favour Rudd, 14 per cent Wayne Swan, 13 per cent Stephen Smith and 11 per cent Bill Shorten. Without Abbott, 39 per cent would favour Turnbull, 30 per cent Joe Hockey and 11 per cent Julie Bishop.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,783 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. Scorps
    It ain’t the same Labor party since the geniuses knifed Kev πŸ˜‰

    They have gone downhill fast, serves them right πŸ˜›

  2. Opinion polls released 2 weeks before Xmas are meaningless, and it’s pure fantasy to allege that the wiki leaks thing is sending millions of extra votes over to Abbott.

    Vera: the ultimate irony is that News Ltd & its respective columnists are supporting Rudd over the leaks, especially Sheriden.
    Julia ain’t gonna sack him, and she’s got no reason to either. πŸ˜‰
    In any case, Labor wouldn’t win a byelection in Griffith.

  3. You can grasp at straws all you like but there has been a fundamental change in attitude to this government entirely of its own making. The complacency in not rebutting attack dog Abbott has resulted in so many free kicks that the game is almost beyond dispute. The abysmul and shallow response to wikileaks is compounding the disillusionment felt by the public. The strategic thinkers in the government ar shown to be inept; we’re beginning to see why Rudd was attempting to marginise the likes of Arbib whose whiteanting antics were beyond belief. How Rudd maintained any sort of equilibrium since Oct 09 is remarkable given the selfish and destructive behaviour of those within the party whose personal ambition triumphed over integrity.

  4. [Scorps
    It ain’t the same Labor party since the geniuses knifed Kev

    They have gone downhill fast, serves them right]

    Yes, and one of the architects of the leadership change is revealed as a U.S spy, indeed it looks like Shorten and Feeney too have been feeding info to the U.S embassy. πŸ˜€

  5. 12 man squad for 3rd test in Perth Australia’s squad for the Third Test:

    Shane Watson, Phillip Hughes, Ricky Ponting, Michael Clarke, Mike Hussey, Brad Haddin, Steven Smith, Mitchell Johnson, Ryan Harris, Ben Hilfenhaus, Peter Siddle, Michael Beer.

  6. There is something that has become very obvious since Rudd has been removed. People criticised Rudd a bit about his language and media presence. But what we are seeing is that Rudd really was/is a top performer in front of the camera and able to get his message across in his way. But more pertinent is the lack of adequate media presence elsewhere in the party.

    Even when Rudd came out of Brisbane to make a few comments during the campaign the contrast between him and the others was stark. And the same again now.

  7. Thomas Paine: I saw Rudd on Kochie & Mel the other morning – just like old times on Sunrise, a pleasant change from the likes of Arbib & Shorten.

  8. [So who the heck is this WA spinner Michael Beer?
    Been named in test squad]

    Vera – Warnie’s got a big rap for him – pleased to see the inclusions

  9. victoria,

    There is something about Bark that just makes me want to slap her. I have to physically restrain my hands! πŸ˜†

  10. Dont know if I should laugh or cry over this poll result. A bit like what the Australian selectors are picking for the test side these days.

  11. Re Oprah: Isn’t it nauseating when politicians of all stripes try to curry favour with TV/Sports stars?
    Kristina Keneally will be all over Oprah next week in Sydney & it’ll be cringeworthy.

  12. Hope Rudd continues to put pressure on the Leadership to become true leaders and stand up for Australian citizenship.

    More press conferences Rudd, and stick to the same tune.

  13. SK

    You are so right. I do not support violence, but she deserves a huge slap! She needs waking up from her stupor!!

    By the way, the video I just posted, sums up the way I feel. Brilliant!!

  14. Victoria, there was also no election imminent when NSW Labor started tanking in mid-2008. However, rather than giving them time to turn their fortunes around, the long period between then and 26/3/11 has only served to prolong their malaise and present an ever-worsening impression to the public of a thoroughly incompetent, utterly exhausted government that should have been turfed out many years ago. I fear we may now be seeing the same situation play out federally.

  15. vera,

    [Scorps
    It ain’t the same Labor party since the geniuses knifed Kev πŸ˜‰

    They have gone downhill fast, serves them right πŸ˜› ]

    I have been very quiet on it since being attacked by the anti-Rudd so veraciously, earlier in the piece.

    Since then I have just been quietly observing to see just what advantage Labor got from the historic changeover of leadership.

    So far, I can’t see too much benefit although, I am sure “someone” will! πŸ˜‰

  16. I thought that this was the most interesting part:

    [Prime Minister Julia Gillard is still the preferred ALP Leader over former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and the lead is growing. Gillard is preferred as ALP Leader by 33% (down 2% since August 26/27, 2010) of electors ahead of Rudd (20%, down 5%). Other candidates are well behind with Foreign Affairs Minister Stephen Smith (10%, up 1%), Bill Shorten (7%, up 2%) and Treasurer and Deputy Prime Minister Wayne Swan (6%, up 1%) the only candidates above 5% support.

    Amongst ALP voters Julia Gillard is far more strongly preferred with 57% of ALP voters preferring Gillard as ALP Leader ahead of Kevin Rudd (20%). Of other contenders, only Stephen Smith (6%) and Bill Shorten (5%) have more than 2% support.

    Former Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull (31%, down 1%) is once again preferred as Liberal Party Leader ahead of current Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (23%, up 2%) and Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey (21%, unchanged). All three candidates are well ahead of Deputy Opposition Leader Julie Bishop (7%, up 1%), the only other candidate with more than 2% support.

    However, amongst Liberal Party voters Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (42%) is clearly preferred to both Joe Hockey (26%) and Malcolm Turnbull (21%). Abbott is also well ahead of Deputy Opposition Leader Julie Bishop (5%).]

  17. I agree that the Wikileaks thing is too young to have changed anyone’s vote. Labor’s PV was down to 34% before Wikileaks anyway. Surely those remaining supporters must all be conservatives whose care factor would be zero over Arbib’s secret and protected briefings to the Americans about the government and Rudd.

  18. victoria – I have to go out again for awhile but let me know what you think of the McClelland interview. I thought he actually showed a bit more spirit and became more forceful.

    A couple of the journos were pretty rude – they show no respect for anyone except themselves nowdays.

  19. [Hope Rudd continues to put pressure on the Leadership to become true leaders and stand up for Australian citizenship.

    More press conferences Rudd, and stick to the same tune.]

    Very magnanimous of him to be so charitable to Mr Assange, considering that he’s taking the brunt of the leaks.
    That comment Julia made last week was stupid in the extreme, and I thought she was meant to have studied law at uni.

  20. Never heard of Michael Beer – odd selection.
    The Aussies better hope that Pietersen gets another few speeding fines slapped on him perhaps? πŸ˜‰

  21. Hamish

    My spin on 75 is

    ALP voters prefers Turnbull, because he is more likely to lose the next election

    Liberal voters prefers Rudd, because he is more likely to do a competant job

  22. Evan 14,

    [Julia ain’t gonna sack him, and she’s got no reason to either. ]

    Just at the moment, Julia needs Kevvie far more than Kevvie needs Julia.

    Rudd is the glue holding the shaky old cart together at the moment.

  23. [madcyril
    Posted Friday, December 10, 2010 at 3:34 pm | Permalink

    Beer in, Doug the Rug out!]

    Skull O’Keefe will be devastated πŸ™‚

  24. Ooh the JG haters are out in force. Take this poll with a grain of salt. Even if true, who cares? When’s the next election again? Get a grip.

  25. [The 5% who want Julie Bishop should not be allowed to vote]

    Rather funny when even the usually anti-Labor News Ltd comes out against her.
    Mesma ought to leave shadow foreign affairs for somebody who actually has some experience in the area.

  26. Well guys I have to go and get ready. I am off to one of Brizvegas’s premier seafood joints all expenses paid, including top flight hotel and cab charge dockets!

    Should prove to be a fantastic night!

    dovif – on the Julie Bishop thing – I agree!

    Nite all

  27. [Just at the moment, Julia needs Kevvie far more than Kevvie needs Julia.

    Rudd is the glue holding the shaky old cart together at the moment.]

    True……..and he can always threaten to trigger a byelection in QLD which Julia wouldn’t win. πŸ˜€

  28. [Hamish

    My spin on 75 is

    ALP voters prefers Turnbull, because he is more likely to lose the next election

    Liberal voters prefers Rudd, because he is more likely to do a competant job]

    More likely that Rudd and Turnbull are both perceived as closer to the political centre than Gillard and Abbott.

  29. Having rea d a few more posts it’s obvious the JG haters are having a ball. Who needs the Libs when you have Labor supporters like we have here?
    Falling apart? LOL.

  30. The only thing to look forward to is it shouldn’t be too long before the cables get into the Howard regime and before. I noticed that Abbott was being very cautious on radio today and limited his criticism to a “people will judge comment” and not making a judgement himself. Abbott has been around for a long time and knows where the bodies are buried so I suspect he has an idea of what is to come.

    Whats the chance of Jooles finding an Australian law that Assange has broken and making fools out of all of them ?

  31. Paul_J,

    None. The only laws relate to officers of the government or military forces. Nothing about citizens and nothing about citizens in other countries and certainly nothing about being in reciept of said documents.

  32. [Whats the chance of Jooles finding an Australian law that Assange has broken and making fools out of all of them ?]

    Finding one, not bad, getting the DPP to consider a case against Assange winnable, pretty well zero.

  33. [surely those remaining supporters must all be conservatives ]

    All 30% of them.

    Not much lower Labor could go, though the Greens might disagree with that LoL

    But with this WikiLeaks issue we are seeing people on both sides of the ideological spectrum get pretty angry overseas. And on The Australian comments to the Wiki story most were livid about this. And if you look at on-line polls (pretty dubious I know) you see a very heavy bias, with figures reaching 90%+ in favour of the WikiLeaks.

    Not definitive I know but indicates that this issue may well have some measurable effect to the negative for Gillard. Especially if Assange has to spend Christmas in a Swedish/USA prison. That would be the absolute pits for Gillard, though not her fault.

  34. Im not surprised Gillard and McClelland so like they are under pressure because they would be under immense strain. Don’t forget they know what ALL the Wikileaks cables show. Wiki showed them to the US who elected not to redact them but could warn countries. Gillard says they have thousands of bits of information to go through. It would be a nightmare. A damage assessment and strategy would be needed for all of them. Most are probably harmless but they all need to be checked.

  35. [ Just at the moment, Julia needs Kevvie far more than Kevvie needs Julia.

    Rudd is the glue holding the shaky old cart together at the moment.

    True……..and he can always threaten to trigger a byelection in QLD which Julia wouldn’t win.]

    Wasn’t there a report earlier of Wilkie going to visit Rudd?? πŸ™‚
    Joking.

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