Newspoll: 50-50

The latest Newspoll has the two-party vote at 50-50, after an anomalous 52-48 in Labor’s favour a fortnight ago. Labor has 34 per cent of the vote, the Coalition 41 per cent and the Greens 14 per cent. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full Newspoll results here. The Labor lead from a fortnight ago may have proved ephemeral, but the improvement in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings has mostly stuck: her approval is down a point to 45 per cent and her disapproval up one to 38 per cent, while her lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly from 54-31 to 52-32. Tony Abbott’s approval is steady on 42 per cent and his disapproval is down two to 43 per cent. On climate change, scepticism is found to have fallen since February but rise since July 2009, belief having gone from 84 per cent to 73 per cent to 77 per cent and non-belief from 12 per cent to 22 per cent to 18 per cent. When it was put to respondents that the federal government’s carbon pricing plans could lead to higher energy costs, 47 per cent said they remained in favour while 49 per cent were against.

Some bedtime thoughts from George Megalogenis in Quarterly Essay:

I know I’m whistling in the wind, but wouldn’t it be nice if Newspoll were to go back to one poll per month? The Australian’s survey of federal voting intensions went fortnightly in 1992 and Newspoll made its reputation in the following year’s election by picking the late swing to Labor. Don’t change what works, right? Unfortunately, two Newspolls per month throughout a term provide too much temptation for mischief. Every half-smart backbencher can pull together a spreadsheet to show why their boss should be rolled. Lobby groups just have to wait for a couple of bad polls before they put the squeeze on government.

It may be coincidence, of course, but there has been a dizzying turnover of political leadership talent since Newspoll went fortnightly. The Liberals were the first Opposition to have three leaders in a term between 1993 and 1996. The man in the middle, Alexander Downer, was the first major-party leader not to contest a federal election. On the Labor side, Simon Crean was pulled down at the end of 2003, before he could face the people in the follwing year. Labor also had three leaders between 2004 and 2007. But these were mere dress rehearsals for the chaos of the past three years, when a first-term government had two prime ministers and a first-term Opposition had three leaders. The trend is clearly accelerating.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,956 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

Comments Page 77 of 80
1 … 76 77 78 … 80

  2. Neil Mitchell earlier this week interviewed Rudd about the leaks. Rudd sheeted the problems home to the US. Mitchell’s response was one of, “Now he’s blaming the Americans”. Today Mitchell is saying that Rudd is the only one talking sense. Do you reckon Neil just maybe playing politics with this?

  3. I did generalize a bit but there were a not insignificant group who trumped wikileaks as effectively the cure to all societies ills. Lot of back pedaling as we who are suspicious of it have done a litte ourselves. Say on our side from Julia to Kev – there was a softening. Rogue operation in the sense it relies on disreputable if not illegal suppliers and doesn’t have even a tiny scrap of public interest analysis on it’s side (ie it doesn’t even have the scraps of excuse that news limited does.

    In this crowd a ‘news’ source with less concern for public interest than news should not really be welcomed as the messiah.

  4. Gary,

    IMHO I don’t think that the newspapers have got it through their thick scones that attacking wikileaks is attacking them. They believe this because they simply refuse to accept the internet as a valid news source. New media is just not kocher in their minds.

  5. WeWantPaul,

    I suggest you log on to Time Magazine and get a real picture of Assange’s intent, by Assange. I think you may be surprised by what you hear. This is no stupid boy playing games.

  6. Gusface@3772

    I’m not sure I have a problem with Assange being charged if a law has been broken, provided every media owner, publisher, journalist and newsreader that has also published/aired the leaked cables is standing in the dock with him.

    measure for measure?

    or some leakers are a bit purer than others?

    More likely because Wikileaks is a soft target easily demonised whereas people know the MSM and generally trust it (mistakenly IMO), and because it has more power than the politicians – in their perception at least, if not the reality.

    As I posted last night, if in the opinion of the Attorney-General Assange should be behind bars then why wasn’t Laurie Oakes receiving his Walkley Award in one of Her Majesty’s prisons yesterday?

  7. It isn’t kosher as journalism – it does collect analyze collaborate and publish a considered position in the public interest. We know what standards real journalists have this starts without those standards.

  8. [Rogue operation in the sense it relies on disreputable if not illegal suppliers ]

    USarmy personnel and the US dilpomatic core?

    [Lot of back pedaling ]

    None i’ve seen,just a lot of new herrings by the wikihaters

    [In this crowd a ‘news’ source with less concern for public interest than news should not really be welcomed as the messiah.]

    you obviously havent read the wikileaks website and are totally ignorant of their genesis

  10. Wewantpaul,

    No. You think what you are getting in today’s msm is valid as journalism? Assange wants information disseminated based on fact. Not on some media baron’s opinion or based on some governments lies.

    What we get in traditional journalism is just plain bilge.

  11. Ron Paul seems to be one of the few honest politicians around. These Independents like Wilkie are proving to be a valuable element.

    We need more of them.

  12. [f the Labor nasties have to go under cover then so be it. The best way to leak against the Libs is to get one of their own to do it, or make it seem that way. The media have been talking to Labor rats in the ranks for years now. Time for some Lib rats to come out.]

    That would be nice BB but the Libs don’t rat on each other very often. Even Turnbull has shut up about how bad Abbott is.

    A good piece over at PoliticalSword on Abbott. The media has huge ammunition against Abbott if only they would run with it but the journos all speak of his charm. Buried within it is a link to a terrific piece on Abbott’s interview on Insiders.

    http://www.thepoliticalsword.com/post/2010/12/07/What-does-Tony-Abbott-stand-for.aspx

    Old and irrelevant Bob Ellis wants Abbott as PM because he is a larrikin and charming and ABC/The Drum publishes that drivel!!

    We need an elder Labor statesman to forget his newfound business alliances and come out to help the old side. We don’t need humbugs like Richardson.

  13. WeWantPaul@3807

    We know what standards real journalists have this starts without those standards.

    There are very few “real journalists” left. What there mostly is now are opinionistas. Opinionistas who give their opinions without having researched, analysed or considered any of what comes out of their mouths or wordprocessors.

  14. Space Kidette,

    [wonder what they yanks really thought of the Rat! … My guess is “weak, conceited, malleable, stupid, egotist…”]

    Lol, the Bush ‘memoirs’ gives a good hint. Rattus was apparently worth a total of about one footnote’s mention. Talk about having an inflated sense of self-importance!

  15. I agree what you say about ‘real’ journalists but devoid of the bullshit even this guy admits he doesn’t have that. I’ve bought snake oil before I’m not ignorant.

  20. victoria

    For the sake of those who don’t bother reading the whole, Charles ws trying to calm things down.
    [The clashes were believed to be the worst political violence in London since the 1990 poll tax riot which helped to end Conservative leader Margaret Thatcher’s decade in power.
    Analysts said there could be more to come as hundreds of thousands of public sector workers lose their jobs.]

    I can understand uni fees going up, but multiplied by three? That’s too tough.

  22. My local rag has a list of Ted’s promises for the region on the front page with the headline “Eyes are on you, Ted”. Good to see.

  24. lizzie

    yes, apparently, Prince Charles was trying to converse with some people through the car window. But as you say, the trebling of fees is hard to digest.

  26. [Oprah will be at Federation Square in Melbourne around 2.30 pm,]

    I thought Jules was supposed to be resting. Can’t the Lord Mayor of Melbourne do the welcome thing?

  31. [We need an elder Labor statesman to forget his newfound business alliances and come out to help the old side. We don’t need humbugs like Richardson.]

    Well said BH! I’m sick and tired of former Labor MPs constantly using their media platforms to crap on the party, after the party gave them a career and a well-funded retirement.

    And I agree with whoever it was earlier who said Wikileaks stuff being reported in the SMH is the biggest yawn. When do we get the genuine whistleblowing material?

  32. lizzie

    I don’t really have an opinion about the Oprah trip. I suppose it makes people happy, and that in itself can’t be a bad thing.

  33. [does anyone know about the cat fight between Barrie Cassidy and Shanahan re polling?]

    Read Shanahan’s column in today’s OO.

  34. [A few posters here are calling the whole WL saga as the dawn of a new era of journalism, the final blow to the msm, etc etc.

    1. WL is drip feeding information to the msm – and playing favourites in doing so, too. This suggests that WL does not see the msm as dead or irrelevant; quite the opposite.
    (I would also note that the drip feeding of information in this way is also contradictory to their free and open flow of information meme – why not release it all at the same time?)]

    There is nothing new in leakers and their publishers an old habit and relationship in media.

    WL has to drip feed these documents because there are 250,000 of them and they are using the expertise of the MSM to review and redact the documents to negate potential harms. The MSM are of course concentrating on the things that interest them most first, as you would expect.

    It contradicts one of WL criteria but adheres to a more important criteria, avoiding harm to life limb and property. So sort of should understand where WL is on this and why we are not getting massive dumps of cables.

    And in reality it is better for them to not dump the whole lot on us at once even if they could as that would overwhelm the senses and make the rush of revelations a desensitising experience on the public, and lead the public to no longer be surprised (and accept) improper things.

    So the way that it is happening is maybe the best way, and only for it to be both effective and safe.

    AS for a dawn of a new era. Well it is in one respect.

    Nothing new about leaks, but something very new about the massive response of the public in different countries as though a new idea’s time has come. AND the ‘cyberattacks’ as a ‘the people fight back’ against the empire.

    The thing that may come out of all this is raising in people’s consciousness the meme of freedom of speech, information, and association. The idea of lets actually make govt accountable for things we have let go for decades. And the idea that the people can fight back using the net.

    It also raises to the fore in many people’s minds the importance of keeping the net ‘free’ just in time to fight govt increased controls and censorship.

    SO lots of benefits and portents of things that might come.

    “You can resist an invading army; you cannot resist an idea whose time has come.”

  35. confessions

    what was reported in today’s Fairfax papers re Rudd and Afghanistan was truly a big yawn. Their objective is only to destablise the govt. I for one see Rudd using this situation as an opportunity to become more determined.

  39. victoria:

    The only truly interesting revelation was about Arbib, but the rest of what we’ve gotten is hardly worth leaking. The ‘leaks’ aren’t telling us anything we didn’t already know.

  40. Laura Tingle in the AFR today.

    How’s this for logic?

    After commenting that Mark Arbib, David Feeney, Paul Howes, etc were talking to the US embassy, she comments, without qualification, that the leaked cables “paint a devastatingly unflattering picture of Rudd’s foreign affairs competence…” Indeed, she says that the US embassy has to do a “professional job” in assessing Rudd.

    Oh, really, Laura.

    If I wrote something as internally inconsistent as that I would be out of a job. But it’s OK to put it a national newspaper.

    One thing is clear to me:

    1. Rudd doesn’t have a friend in Canberra, because he’s got nothing to offer (doesn’t take much brilliance to work that out);

    2. The victors get to write history AND they get reporters to write it for them. Tingle is usually better than most, but let’s face it, they’re all herd animals;

    I also find it interesting that a lot of Canberra political reporters (dunno about Laura) now seem to think that Rudd was dumped because people in his party took a personal dislike to him, yet not one has commented on the gargantuan contempt such a rationale would show for the Australian electorate. After all, it’s for the electorate to decide if they like or dislike a PM – not the fleas in his own party.

  43. As J James noted from that press release

    [The US State Department yesterday issued a press release in relation to World Press Freedom Day. Amazing.

    “The theme for next year’s commemoration will be 21st Century Media: New Frontiers, New Barriers. The United States places technology and innovation at the forefront of its diplomatic and development efforts. New media has empowered citizens around the world to report on their circumstances, express opinions on world events, and exchange information in environments sometimes hostile to such exercises of individuals’ right to freedom of expression. At the same time, we are concerned about the determination of some governments to censor and silence individuals, and to restrict the free flow of information. We mark events such as World Press Freedom Day in the context of our enduring commitment to support and expand press freedom and the free flow of information in this digital age.”]

    Is there a word for extreme hypocrisy?

    I think the best to control and destroy something is to say you care then put yourself in charge of it.

  47. Wikileaks was the recipient of a huge number of authentic raw documents from the centre of government. Many of those documents shed the harsh light of truth on serial lies by the governments of several nations.

    Any news organisation not beholden to a government would publish such documents. It makes no difference whether the documents had been leaked to Wikileaks or to a mainstream news organisation. Not to publish the documents would be to consciously act against the public interest in favour of protecting duplicitous governments of the day.

    Assange and his colleagues at Wikileaks knew the opprobrium that would be headed their way from those governments of the day due to embarrassment, but they nevertheless ensured that the documents were published.

    That in my view is a highly commendable act, regardless of the personality of Assange, or the validity of the unrelated charges being levelled at him.

    To argue against the release of the truth reflected in the authentic documents is to argue in favour of governments being given carte blanche to act in bad faith while keeping the electorate in ignorance.

  49. [I thought Jules was supposed to be resting. Can’t the Lord Mayor of Melbourne do the welcome thing?]

    lizzie – I don’t see FTA and I don’t care a fig for Oprah’s program but if the piccies I see on Sky are anything to go then every cent we’ve spent bringing her here is well worth it. Happy faces, great scenery and a generous welcome from locals are all being sent directly back to the US. You can’t buy that publicity as cheaply in such a short space of time. Mar’n dun good for us!!

  50. jv

    I agree in principle. So therefore I would love to see cables relating to the Howard Era and in particular to the Iraq war. Why have they not been released as yet?

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 77 of 80
1 … 76 77 78 … 80