Newspoll: 50-50

The latest Newspoll has the two-party vote at 50-50, after an anomalous 52-48 in Labor’s favour a fortnight ago. Labor has 34 per cent of the vote, the Coalition 41 per cent and the Greens 14 per cent. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full Newspoll results here. The Labor lead from a fortnight ago may have proved ephemeral, but the improvement in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings has mostly stuck: her approval is down a point to 45 per cent and her disapproval up one to 38 per cent, while her lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly from 54-31 to 52-32. Tony Abbott’s approval is steady on 42 per cent and his disapproval is down two to 43 per cent. On climate change, scepticism is found to have fallen since February but rise since July 2009, belief having gone from 84 per cent to 73 per cent to 77 per cent and non-belief from 12 per cent to 22 per cent to 18 per cent. When it was put to respondents that the federal government’s carbon pricing plans could lead to higher energy costs, 47 per cent said they remained in favour while 49 per cent were against.

Some bedtime thoughts from George Megalogenis in Quarterly Essay:

I know I’m whistling in the wind, but wouldn’t it be nice if Newspoll were to go back to one poll per month? The Australian’s survey of federal voting intensions went fortnightly in 1992 and Newspoll made its reputation in the following year’s election by picking the late swing to Labor. Don’t change what works, right? Unfortunately, two Newspolls per month throughout a term provide too much temptation for mischief. Every half-smart backbencher can pull together a spreadsheet to show why their boss should be rolled. Lobby groups just have to wait for a couple of bad polls before they put the squeeze on government.

It may be coincidence, of course, but there has been a dizzying turnover of political leadership talent since Newspoll went fortnightly. The Liberals were the first Opposition to have three leaders in a term between 1993 and 1996. The man in the middle, Alexander Downer, was the first major-party leader not to contest a federal election. On the Labor side, Simon Crean was pulled down at the end of 2003, before he could face the people in the follwing year. Labor also had three leaders between 2004 and 2007. But these were mere dress rehearsals for the chaos of the past three years, when a first-term government had two prime ministers and a first-term Opposition had three leaders. The trend is clearly accelerating.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,956 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  6. [Scarpat,

    What about the extreme lengths HOward went to to keep Wilkie mouth shut?]

    SK, I would think that Wilkie has not forgotten that especially given that some of the players at that time are still leading the Opposition.

  7. Scarpat

    Abbott apologised to Wilkie during the negotiations for govt. We know his apology was with strings attached. Too bad for Abbott. Wilkie did not buy it.

  10. [The cables give a stark insight into the private views of Australian and American officials on the war, including frustration about Canberra stalling on promises to boost Australia’s civilian contribution beyond the 1550 troops deployed.

    An October 2008 cable, which records what Mr Rudd told a group of visiting US congressmen, says he ”concluded by noting that the national security establishment in Australia was very pessimistic about the long-term prognosis for Afghanistan”]

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/afghanistan-our-secret-fears-20101209-18rej.html

    As others have noted you do have to wonder if his knifing as PM had anything to do with his reluctance to automatically do whatever the US wanted. And especially to actually doubt the prospects of same. It is good to see him putting his views like this.

    I don’t know if it is me but it seems one MSM is promoting Rudd whilst the other is trying to do the opposite.

  11. victoria

    apropos future of America theme, did you see:
    [Life expectancy has dropped slightly for all Americans except for black men, who gained around two and a half months in longevity, a new report shows.

    Data released on Thursday by the National Centre for Health Statistics showed that life expectancy for most American men was 75.3 years in 2008, down by one-tenth of a year from 2007.

    Women also saw a drop in the number of years they can expect to live, from 80.4 years to 80.3 years, the data show….

    A study released in October said the United States ranked 49th in the world for male and female life expectancy, a precipitous drop from the fifth place it held in 1950.]
    http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/wellbeing/life-expectancy-down-for-americans-20101210-18rzc.html

  13. I think there is also a battle of personalities within WikiLeaks. This is not smart as their enemies will play on it.

    The smart thing for them all to do at the moment is remain united and do whatever it is they want to do after. Because if Assange/Wiki lose this battle their future plans are cactus too.

  14. TP,

    At the bottom of the article they have ads for “Leak Detection” hilarious.

    I am proud Rudd didn’t kow tow to the yanks, yes we are allies but we are not stupid lap dogs. Good on you Rudd!

  15. [Data released on Thursday by the National Centre for Health Statistics showed that life expectancy for most American men was 75.3 years in 2008, down by one-tenth of a year from 2007.

    Women also saw a drop in the number of years they can expect to live, from 80.4 years to 80.3 years, the data show….]

    Possibly due to the impact of obesity?

  16. Cuppa,

    Thanks for that. This is what Wiki has on him (peadia that is)

    Blix’s statements about the Iraq WMD program came to contradict the claims of the George W. Bush administration, [6] and attracted a great deal of criticism from supporters of the invasion of Iraq. In an interview on BBC TV on 8 February 2004, Dr. Blix accused the US and British governments of dramatising the threat of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, in order to strengthen the case for the 2003 war against the regime of Saddam Hussein. Ultimately, no stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction were found. [7]

    In an interview with London’s Guardian newspaper, Hans Blix said, “I have my detractors in Washington. There are bastards who spread things around, of course, who planted nasty things in the media”. [8]

    In 2004, Blix published a book, Disarming Iraq, where he gives his account of the events and inspections before the coalition began its invasion.

    Blix said he suspected his home and office were bugged by the United States, while he led teams searching for Saddam Hussein’s supposed weapons of mass destruction.[3] Although these suspicions were never directly substantiated, evidence of bugging of UN security council representatives around the time the US was seeking approval from the council came to light after a British government translator leaked a document “allegedly from an American National Security Agency” requesting that British intelligence put wiretaps on delegates to the UN security council.[4]

  17. [
    The smart thing for them all to do at the moment is remain united and do whatever it is they want to do after. Because if Assange/Wiki lose this battle their future plans are cactus too.
    ]

    Doesn’t sound like they are according to this

    [
    A number of WikiLeaks defectors, including founder Julian Assange’s former right-hand man, plan to launch a rival site on Monday after accusing Assange of behaving like “some kind of emperor or slave trader”.

    With WikiLeaks itself vowing to press on with its leaking regardless of the fate of Assange, it seems that any attempts by US politicians to stop the leaks will be futile.

    Advertisement: Story continues below The new site, Openleaks, will launch on Monday, respected Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter reported. Like WikiLeaks, it will allow whistleblowers to anonymously leak information to the public, except Openleaks won’t host the documents itself, instead acting as an intermediary between whistleblowers and other groups including media organisations.

    Several WikiLeaks members abandoned the site following perceived autocratic behaviour by Assange. They said he failed to consult them on many decisions and put himself front and centre in everything WikiLeaks did.

    ]

    http://www.theage.com.au/technology/technology-news/anger-at-slave-trader-assange-wikileaks-loyalists-decide-to-break-away-20101210-18s0w.html

  20. [Several WikiLeaks members abandoned the site following perceived autocratic behaviour by Assange. They said he failed to consult them on many decisions and put himself front and centre in everything WikiLeaks did.]

    Or as Arbib would say;

    Several Government members abandoned him following perceived autocratic behaviour by Rudd. They said he failed to consult them on many decisions and put himself front and centre in everything the Government did.

  21. madcyril,

    Now the cynic in me is sitting here saying “mmm, who would benefit most by putting this information out” and the words “U.S. Government” come to mind.

  22. Laocoon

    Yes, Scarpat makes a good point. Obesity is one problem in the US. Also, drug companies are more than happy to push drugs for all manner of reasons on the US populace. I would say that many people overdose on prescription drugs before their time.
    You gotta love these oligarchies. Feeding and drugging their citizenry on crap, and then making them believe that it is all the govts fault because their govt are socialists!! 😉

  23. If William feels like a new thread, I see the latest Morgan showing 55/45 2pp to LNP Coalition (based on phone poll 8/9 December) of 550 electors.

  24. SK

    Are you suggesting that this rival network will be the US govt putting out leaks that are favourable to them. Well I never ……………..!

  25. Cuppa,

    Actually, thinking about the role Hans Blix played, the cables relating to him will be fundamental in determining to what extent the lies told by the U.S. goverment to other governments around the world embroiled them all in war.

    Can’t wait wait for that merde to hit the fan!

  27. [Are you suggesting that this rival network will be the US govt putting out leaks that are favourable to them. Well I never ……………..!]

    Or divide and conquer.

  28. Heard a “representative” from Anonymous on early ABC, said that they were not organised, but might act “in unison” if they all felt something needed to be hacked into.
    Was this interview a result of something in a newspaper about “Hacktivists”?

  30. Victoria

    I too hope that there are plenty of ‘smoking gun’ cables about the start of the Iraq war. Right up to and beyond the decision to invade, the United Nations weapons inspectors were saying that they had found nothing in the way of WMD’s.

    The very expression ‘weapons of mass destruction’ itself was the mantra of the ‘coalition of the willing’ – it came into the lexicon from nowhere as part of their strategy to justify their illegal invasion of Iraq. The expression was repeated and repeated to the point of nausea by the likes of Bush, Cheney, Blair, Howard and Downer

    Hans Blix, as the chief of the weapons inspection for the UN, sought more time before any decision was made by the UN – or by the US unilaterally – because they had found nothing, and they were in there on the ground, and also had access to the external intelligence.

    But the US along with the UK and Australia ignored the weapons inspectors because the truth wasn’t what they needed. Therefore they manufactured ‘intelligence’ via ‘sources’ such as convoluted Nigerian links; from set-up rogue Iraqi ‘informers’ of no credibility; and deliberately misinterpreted satellite pictures.

    It stood out like dogs’ balls at the time, and I hope this bunch of cables includes further proof, if any is needed. We already have so far from these leaks evidence of the UK whitewashing its inquiry to protect itself and the US from the truth coming out.

  34. victoria,

    thanks for posting the Lowenstein piece.

    The points in this piece and the Tim Dunlop piece are the points I was alluding to yesterday, although no where near as elegantly.

    Those journo’s need to be shaken out of their hibernation and to start redefining who they are in the new social media world or go the way of the dinosaurs.

  35. Morgan compares his phone poll to his face-to-face again. The last comparable phone poll was in mid September, a 4.5% drop in 2PP terms since then.

  36. [Those journo’s need to be shaken out of their hibernation and to start redefining who they are in the new social media world or go the way of the dinosaurs.]

    Unfortunately this is where the lack of media ownership diversity in AUstralia has an enormous impact. A journalist in the print media has basically a choice of two. If one is a radio/TV journalist the choice is little greater.

  37. OMG, we went to war on a lie!!

    Again, a reality check: most people were opposed to the war in Iraq. There were demonstrations in the streets. There were letters in the newspapers and to MPs. Polls at the time all showed consistent opposition.

    This was when people were being told that yes, there are WMDs.

    It was clear very soon afterwards that there weren’t WMDs. It was clear that not only had we gone into war against the wishes of the people, and against all former protocols, but that we had done so on the basis of a lie.

    And guess what? The government that did this was re elected with a thumping majority.

    If the whole idea behind these leaks is that, if you give people the truth, they will punish their governments for lying to them and ‘change politics’, then it’s not going to work.

  38. On Iraq, I heard the rodent being interviewed on the ABC about his book a few weeks ago, and it was the most mealy-mouthed, sleazy, self-justifying garbage I have heard from any politician. He intimated that the flawed intelligence about WMD perhaps let everyone down, as if he was the innocent victim of misinformation that fooled everyone else too. But he did not even mention Hans Blix or the UN. Unfortunately neither did the interviewer, and my call in got the response from the producer that ‘We’re on to it.’, but it came to nothing.

  39. PS

    my 3937 is not pro or anti WL; just an observation of how little the truth and being lied to by governments actually matters.

  40. [Unfortunately neither did the interviewer, and my call in got the response from the producer that ‘We’re on to it.’, but it came to nothing.]

    Perhaps what he really meant was ‘We’re on to you’.

  41. [3-6 MILLION, FFS! How much dumber & incompetent can a government get?]

    he he he, i told you, i tell you and i will tell you.

    Argue until you turn blue on the RighT or wRONg of WeakyLeaks. What it has done is to expose the stupidity, laziness and total incompetent of the USA Govt Information & Records Management Systems.

    And this is the Govt that is supposed to be our leader, the one we trust to lead the free world, the one we trust to fight against the baddies. They are absolutely hopeless.

    And i am still available 👿

  43. Prez Lula, take me to Copacobana for the Samba:

    [Lula Defends WikiLeaks, Offers Brazil’s `Solidarity’ With Jailed Founder – By Carla Simoes and Fabiola Moura – Dec 10, 2010 6:30 AM ET – Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva defended Julian Assange, founder of the WikiLeaks.org website that published more than 250,000 of U.S. diplomatic cables sent to or from embassies around the world.

    Lula, a former union leader, said Assange did less harm than the classified documents’ authors, and offered his “solidarity” with the jailed Australian national.

    “I’m surprised they arrested the man and I didn’t see any protest,” Lula said at an event today in Brasilia. “The guy was just posting what he read.”

    Details of the cables, published in the media by newspapers including the New York Times and the U.K.’s Guardian, included a directive for U.S. diplomats to gather biometric information and other details of key United Nations officials and offers to countries to accept Guantanamo Bay detainees.

    Leaked cables from Brazil shed light on U.S. government attempts to solicit Brazil’s help in isolating Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and showed U.S. diplomats discussing anti- American members of the Lula government.

    Lula said that WikiLeaks “exposed a diplomacy that seemed to be untouchable.” ]

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-09/lula-defends-wikileaks-offers-brazil-s-solidarity-with-jailed-founder.html

  44. zoomster@3939

    just an observation of how little the truth and being lied to by governments actually matters.

    It matters to me. I also think it matters to most, once they are sure. The less-informed find it easier to swallow the pre-digested rubbish they are fed, unless it really starts to taste like shit. That’s where these authentic documents* with no artificial colours or flavours come in.

    *I was going to say ‘cables’ but some would have taken that as a pun

  45. [If the whole idea behind these leaks is that, if you give people the truth, they will punish their governments for lying to them and ‘change politics’, then it’s not going to work.]

    Exactly, zoomster. This is what’s so damned frustrating.

  46. zoomster,

    If no-one cared that we went to war based on a lie then why are people rising up in support of Wikileaks in HUGE numbers across the globe.

    The truth is we have one government who wanted to go to war and no doubt lied and covered up the truth in order to get other governments around the world to go to war with them, with the help of a complicit or just plain lazy media.

    People are obviously pissed at being fed lies, and being controlled by being told what to think, who to vote for, etc. The populace knew that they were being treated like mushrooms but had nothing to rally behind.

    Assange and Wikileaks has provided that rallying point if nothing else.

  47. My problem with wikileaked is that most of it was done by an observer (ie one person)

    Someone in the US embassy in Australia, thinks this of Kevin Rudd … so Newspaper start reporting that this is what the US think of Rudd

    It is just one person’s opinion twisted, poorly reported, became misinformation and sansationalised to sell newspaper and magazine…. war had been started from less then what some of these supposedly said

    They are good gossip … it is all they are

  48. Space Kidette

    Most people in the world do not care …. yes there are some people who do not have job, have lots of times on their hands … who believes in conspiracy theories …. but not majority

  49. zoomster

    you make a good point about Howard being re-elected at the time. But you must remember that at that stage, the WMD argument was still up for grabs. It only became clear with the passage of time that something smelly was going on. And as SK points out in post 3946, now could be the rallying point after all the lies.

  50. Morgan Poll
    Federal Poll : Finding No. 4615 : This telephone Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two nights December 8/9, 2010, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 550 electors. : December 10, 2010
    In the first poll conducted since the ‘Wikileaks’, the telephone Morgan Poll finds support for the ALP has slumped 7.5%. On a two party preferred basis ALP support is now 45% to L-NP’s 55%.

    In the telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last two nights, December 8/9, 2010, the ALP primary vote is 30% (down 10.5%), behind the L-NP 47% (up 5%). Support for the minor parties shows the Greens 13.5% (up 1.5%) and Others/ Independents 9.5% (up 4%).

    If a Federal election were held now the L-NP would easily win Government.

    Despite the dramatic loss in support for the ALP, an increased majority of Australians (57.5%, up 5%) are confident that Australia is ‘heading in the right direction,’ compared to 30.5% (up 3%) that say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction. Therefore the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up 2 points to 127.

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