Newspoll: 50-50

The latest Newspoll has the two-party vote at 50-50, after an anomalous 52-48 in Labor’s favour a fortnight ago. Labor has 34 per cent of the vote, the Coalition 41 per cent and the Greens 14 per cent. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full Newspoll results here. The Labor lead from a fortnight ago may have proved ephemeral, but the improvement in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings has mostly stuck: her approval is down a point to 45 per cent and her disapproval up one to 38 per cent, while her lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly from 54-31 to 52-32. Tony Abbott’s approval is steady on 42 per cent and his disapproval is down two to 43 per cent. On climate change, scepticism is found to have fallen since February but rise since July 2009, belief having gone from 84 per cent to 73 per cent to 77 per cent and non-belief from 12 per cent to 22 per cent to 18 per cent. When it was put to respondents that the federal government’s carbon pricing plans could lead to higher energy costs, 47 per cent said they remained in favour while 49 per cent were against.

Some bedtime thoughts from George Megalogenis in Quarterly Essay:

I know I’m whistling in the wind, but wouldn’t it be nice if Newspoll were to go back to one poll per month? The Australian’s survey of federal voting intensions went fortnightly in 1992 and Newspoll made its reputation in the following year’s election by picking the late swing to Labor. Don’t change what works, right? Unfortunately, two Newspolls per month throughout a term provide too much temptation for mischief. Every half-smart backbencher can pull together a spreadsheet to show why their boss should be rolled. Lobby groups just have to wait for a couple of bad polls before they put the squeeze on government.

It may be coincidence, of course, but there has been a dizzying turnover of political leadership talent since Newspoll went fortnightly. The Liberals were the first Opposition to have three leaders in a term between 1993 and 1996. The man in the middle, Alexander Downer, was the first major-party leader not to contest a federal election. On the Labor side, Simon Crean was pulled down at the end of 2003, before he could face the people in the follwing year. Labor also had three leaders between 2004 and 2007. But these were mere dress rehearsals for the chaos of the past three years, when a first-term government had two prime ministers and a first-term Opposition had three leaders. The trend is clearly accelerating.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,956 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. [Actually,I much more prefer Mr Assange.]

    Were you, or have you ever known a wiki witch?

    were you or are you currently a wiki witch?

    Answer the question, witch lover!!

    *grins*

    ps 50/50 is not an answer

  2. [ deblonay
    Posted Monday, December 6, 2010 at 10:57 pm | Permalink
    Frank…who seems to have been distracted by his endless pursuit of”Green Cultists”
    has the bizarre notion that somehow or other Assange will file the Centrelink or ATO files
    How/…Why ??
    Assenge is interested in US and other diplomatic files and cables..the boring Centrelink files about pensioners would kill all interest stone dead !
    He is after real criminals.like the banksters…… and looney politicians
    e.g. Politicians from small middling NATIONS WHO WANT TO USE FORCE AGAINST CHINA
    ]

    You do not get it at all.

    What’s to stop a pissed off Centrelink/ATO staffer leaking YOUR Confidential Tax/Benefits information onto wikileaks cos they want to demonstrate how transparent the Govt is ??

    And yes, this WILL eventually happen.

    But hide your head in the sand like Ostriches cos you would rather help Wikileaks despose of Left-Leaning govts and install ultra conservative ones.

    And you can bet your last ddollar that anything relating to the Bush/Howard Years will NEVER be on wikileaks.

    You have all been sucked in 🙂

  3. [What’s to stop a pissed off Centrelink/ATO staffer leaking YOUR Confidential Tax/Benefits information onto wikileaks cos they want to demonstrate how transparent the Govt is ??]

    Wikileaks isn’t an open page. Information can be put into a drop box and it is then analysed by Assange et al. to see if it is worth releasing. No one’s dole records are gonna be up there, I promise.

  4. Frank Calabrese

    You should note that right wing Republicans in the US are denouncing Assange. It is not a left wing conspiracy. Assange’s objective is to expose the US foreign policy.

  5. [Were you, or have you ever known a wiki witch?

    were you or are you currently a wiki witch?

    Answer the question, witch lover!!]

    Better to be a wiki witch lover than a devoted dolly lover! 😉

  6. [ pancho
    Posted Monday, December 6, 2010 at 11:08 pm | Permalink
    What’s to stop a pissed off Centrelink/ATO staffer leaking YOUR Confidential Tax/Benefits information onto wikileaks cos they want to demonstrate how transparent the Govt is ??

    Wikileaks isn’t an open page. Information can be put into a drop box and it is then analysed by Assange et al. to see if it is worth releasing. No one’s dole records are gonna be up there, I promise.
    ]

    Believe in Fairytales – if it is designed to hurt a Govt, it WILL be released Centrelink records and all.

  7. [poss has posted some ahem allegations

    the end result could be a by election in dobell

    that is all]

    Yes, I read that. It’s not the kind of thing I rush to write a blog post about before I know what’s happened.

  8. [And you can bet your last ddollar that anything relating to the Bush/Howard Years will NEVER be on wikileaks.]

    Why not? The material would still be timely. And, given the length of time they were in office (Bush eight years; Howard eleven) it stands to reason there would be more material relating to them than to Obama/Rudd/Gillard.

  9. Frank
    I didn’t know we even had a left-leaning goverment in Canberra.
    The last I heard was Julia and the ALP was still in power !!
    When did this lean to the left take place…nothing to do with Arbib and Shorten I hope!!

  10. [ Cuppa
    Posted Monday, December 6, 2010 at 11:14 pm | Permalink
    And you can bet your last ddollar that anything relating to the Bush/Howard Years will NEVER be on wikileaks.

    Why not? The material would still be timely. And, given the length of time they were in office (Bush eight years; Howard eleven) it stands to reason there would be more material relating to them than to Obama/Rudd/Gillard.
    ]

    Another sucker conned by Wikispin.

    The stuff released re US and Australia has inviolved Obama and Rudd/Gillard.

    This is the left destroyimg the left stuff.

    But believe the fairytales – You will regret it when you get Presiduint Palin and PM Abbott.

  11. Thomas P @ 420 previous thread
    [The size of the US economic problem in human terms]

    Great chart. What also caught my eye is that the 4 latest recessions are also the 4 worst in terms of prolongation of the period of declines in employment: 81, 90, 01 and now; and 01 much more so than any previous (like the “now” case)

    One wonders whether there has been a cycle around a more structural change/decline – i.e. spread of globalisation of goods (and capital) – which has tended to be masked a bit by cyclical forces, but has now been laid bare for all to see (a wikileaks economy)

  12. [15 deblonay
    Posted Monday, December 6, 2010 at 11:14 pm | Permalink
    Frank
    I didn’t know we even had a left-leaning goverment in Canberra.
    The last I heard was Julia and the ALP was still in power !!
    When did this lean to the left take place…nothing to do with Arbib and Shorten I hope!!
    ]You know EXACTKY what I mean

    But you prefer fairytales to reality.

    Enjoy Abbott & Palin – they will be delivered to you courtesy of Wikileaks.

  13. [21 Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, December 6, 2010 at 11:17 pm | Permalink
    Gus,

    I think you are counting chickens before the chickens that laid the eggs were chickens.
    ]

    Gus is now a Wiki/Green Cultist – he believes any fairytale written.

  14. [ Gusface
    Posted Monday, December 6, 2010 at 11:18 pm | Permalink
    GG

    check the poss

    he rarely shits in his own backyard
    ]

    Poss may have been fed a bullshit story cos he is known to be respected by the left.

    Just like your beloved Wikileaks – The Left destroying the left from within.

  15. [Another sucker conned by Wikispin.

    The stuff released re US and Australia has inviolved Obama and Rudd/Gillard.

    This is the left destroyimg the left stuff.

    But believe the fairytales – You will regret it when you get Presiduint Palin and PM Abbott.]

    I haven’t been sucked in by anything. I retain an open mind about all of this and seek only to become better informed. Can you give me a good reason why information about Bush/Howard won’t be leaked if it’s there to leak? Surely if the Wikileak folks are lefties they’ll want to inflict as much damage on right wingers as possible, even if the right wingers are no longer in office. What lefty in their ‘right’ mind could resist the opportunity to sink the slipper into the shrub or the rodent?

  16. [JohnnyComeL8ly

    wikileaks uncovers worldwide corruption, fairfax uncovers mp going to the knockshop…that’s why you’re so shit #auspol]

    guffaw.

  17. The original tweet was from GhostWhoVotes, who obviously gets an early look at one or both Fairfax papers, and it read “Fairfax are running a story tomorrow about Federal Labor MP Craig Thomson being caught in a prostitution scandal”. I suggest that’s all anybody knows at this stage, including Possum.

  18. [It involves consenting adults and an exchange of money.

    Like buying a bottle of milk.]

    If it’s consenting adults, then there should be no need for a bye-election, even if there was an exchange of money.

    David Campbell is still sitting in the NSW parliament.

  19. gus,

    The rat is dead.

    Parliament doesn’t sit again till next year. Abbott can not do anything but have Xmas with Margie and the kids in Manly.

  20. [an you give me a good reason why information about Bush/Howard won’t be leaked if i]

    Not many of the documents have been released and I gather it takes time to process them, to remove names and assess risk I gather. It might be they are dealing with most current documents first then the older stuff later. Maybe.

    It depends on the file sent to Wikki.

    I am thinking the real dynamite are the banking files. As anyone who has even had a cursory glance at the last decade of the US would realise Congressmen, Banks and regulators were (are) heavily involved with each other and very likely involved in widespread corrupt activity. Corruption during the Bush years may have become may have become so widespread and deep as to become seen as the norm.

    BoA seems to be the data they have, though may be a diversion. The likes of JPM will be very worried and probably have their hundreds of PR and Attorneys on standby.

    We should remember the whistle-blower on JPM manipulating the silver market suffered an attempt on his life not long after giving evidence.

  21. These allegations go back two years and are well known. Are there new ones?

    [THE federal Labor MP and former union boss Craig Thomson faces allegations that his union credit cards were used to pay for escort services and to withdraw more than $100,000 in cash, as well as bankroll his election campaign for the central coast seat of Dobell.

    Documents provided to the Herald show that Health Services Union officials concluded last year that union credit cards issued to Mr Thomson – and other financial resources – were used for election campaign spending. These had not been disclosed under electoral law.

    Mr Thomson, 44, was the union’s national secretary from 2002 to 2007 and is chairman of the House of Representatives economics committee.
    Advertisement: Story continues below

    The union officials also concluded that Mr Thomson’s union Commonwealth Bank credit card had been used to withdraw cash advances totalling $101,533 during his five years as national secretary.

    And the documents suggest the Commonwealth Bank MasterCard in Mr Thomson’s name was used to make payments to operators of a Sydney brothel and two escort services as well as numerous payments to restaurants and bars and for purchases of personal items. ]

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/labor-mp-accused-of-credit-card-rort-20090407-9zl7.html

  22. [the MSM]

    Er… I don’t follow. You mean he would resign his seat due to public pressure? I’d like to think he’s made of sterner stuff than that.

    And let’s bear in mind that one by-election loss (and I agree that Labor would be thrashed) probably wouldn’t in itself spell the end for the government – surely Katter/Crook aren’t quite so unhinged as to support a no-confidence motion over something like this?

  23. Last I heard Fairfax was being sued for defamation over this – it is not unheard for them to repeat allegations for which they have been taken to the courts

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