Morgan face-to-face: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last weekend from a sample of 1143, has Labor’s two-party lead at 53.5-46.5, using the more reliable method of allocating minor party and independent preferences according to the last election (Morgan is still using the preference distributions from 2007, but those from 2010 were not significantly different). This is down from 54.5-45.5 a week ago. Labor’s primary vote is steady on 40.5 per cent, the Coalition is up 1.5 per cent to 41 per cent and the Greens are down two to 13 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,392 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 48
1 2 3 4 … 48

  6. geoffrey
    Posted Friday, September 24, 2010 at 6:54 pm | Permalink

    “i don’t get it – does speaker have a deciding vote when needed? have i missed something?”

    Unless section 50 of Constit , Speaker has a casting vote in events of a tie vote

  7. [As much as I have no brief with Sky News they have covered this story very well and are streets ahead of ABC24 and the ABC generally. hell I will have to email Keiran Gilbert and congratulate him if he keeps on in this vein, mmm nah better not, be hypocritical.]

    I think that this just shows how bad their ABC has become if SlyNooz is more reliable and accurate than them.

    Is ABC trying to be Australia’s Fox News?

  10. Mr Toolman must resign after his efforts today.

    His shameless attempt to derail the arrangement has backfired spectacularly. It’s made Abbott look even worse!

  13. [ Definitely didn’t see this coming.

    When have you ever??]

    Only Nostridamus had that power on this blog and he imploded 🙁

  14. [“I’m looking forward to having a role in making these reforms for the betterment of future parliaments in Australia.”]

    Says it all for Somlyay, he is leaving buts wants to put his mark on history.

  15. Anthony Albanese said earlier that there were a number of others Libs who were not happy with Abbott. Could they also get them to turn? The story has now been taken from the website but was on smh earlier.

  16. cud chewer
    Posted Friday, September 24, 2010 at 7:07 pm | Permalink

    Urgh.. been busy here.. someone want to recap on the seemingly good news going around?

    Cud , here is th conflict , lib facelss men at work

    ” Liberal MP Somlyay open to Deputy Speaker role
    Jacob Saulwick and Lenore Taylor, SMH
    September 24, 2010 – 6:23PM

    The Liberal MP, Alex Somlyay, has AGREED to support the Labor Government on crucial supply and no-confidence motions – provided he is elected deputy speaker of the House of Representatives.

    Mr Somlyay’s position, confirmed to the Herald this afternoon, CONTRADICTS an earlier statement issued by Tony Abbott’s office claiming that Mr Somlyay had rejected Labor’s offer to be deputy speaker.”

  17. [ I think Hockey needs some practice to get up to this standard ]

    Well he is getting a lot of it. Methinks he is an in joke amongst the Libs, left there to make a complete mockery of himself.

  18. According to the ABC report, Somlyay is saying he will nominate for the position (presumably of Deputy Speaker) at the Party room meeting on Monday…

    So, if he does, and gets knocked back, then Labor nominates him and he gets the guernsey?

  22. Comical Ali actually gets quite a few things right in those quotes.

    [Rumsfeld is a “crook” and “the most despicable creature.”

    Rumsfeld is “the worst kind of bastard”]

  23. [Anthony Albanese said earlier that there were a number of others Libs who were not happy with Abbott.]

    Hmmm, how long before Turnbull deposed Abbott.

  29. Hmm.. so what’s the odds that the statement out of Abbott’s office was against Somlyay’s wishes?

    Btw.. does the constitution say that the deputy speaker gets a casting vote.. or only the speaker?

  30. Also, Hockey could use this one:

    [We made them drink poison last night and Abbott’s soldiers and his great forces gave the Laborites a lesson which will not be forgotten by history. Truly.”]

  31. Somlyay is illegitimate. He does not have a mandate. He is absurd. He is dead wrong. He is a rat.

    On a technical issue, do his primary votes now migrate to Labor?

  32. [“I’ve had a number of discussions with members of the Coalition,” Mr Albanese said in Melbourne.

    “It is fair to say there is great deal of anger within Coalition ranks with Tony Abbott – many members of the Liberal Party and the National Party have expressed their concern.

    “I understand Tony Abbott has been pushing Philip Ruddock but it is my understanding they will walk away from that.”]
    Mmmmm…must be a few Coalition ministers chatting to their friends in the ALP.

  38. [ Somlyay is illegitimate. ]

    Well Tony and Joe will surely think he is a bastard. If I wasn’t a skeptical heathen I would call it Karma.

  39. “The Opposition is now trying to consider what action to take at its partyroom meeting on Monday faced with Mr Somlyay’s deal with Labor.”

    That’s from Shanahan’s story.

    Question is: Will Abbott survive?

  42. [blackdog, yes it sounds like their is a queue of Liberals outside Albanese’s door.]

    If nothing else it is destabilising to the opposition.

    July 2010: People have said that Rudd’s autocratic method of working was responsible for his down fall.

    September 2010: People have said that Abbott’s autocratic method of working was responsible for his down fall.

  43. One can only but wonder how dumb these journos are in allowing themselves to be taken on this amazing journey and they still have not understood how they are being used in the attempts to overthrow the democratically elected government.

    This whole scenario smacks of Roo when he got rid of gough. If Hawkie had have said, people pick up your guns, i would have had no hesitation. Thanks to Rodent i now do not have a firearm and i am a bit older but i am very outraged at the behaviour of the Opposition in conjunction with the compliant media who are hellbent on dividing the population.

    This unhinged idiot needs to be shut down real quick.

  45. ABC News wrap up reported that Labor is saying that Solyay is saying that he will support them on Supply and No Confidence in return for the Deputy Speaker’s job.

  46. Hearking back to Julia’s interview with Denton earlier today — she DID say, that behind the scenes the relationships between the various MPs were not as adversarial as it appears in QT (or wtte). She commended the work of Julie Bishop, for instance, when working with a an ALP MP over Lifeline/Suicide.

    Maybe she was ‘foreshadowing’ the dissent in the ranks of the opposition, and the tacit support the govt might receive in order to have this parliament function effectively?

    if so :kiss:

  48. Vote is now 75/74 with Jenkins as speaker.

    For matters of supply of confidence.

    Somlay vote

    76/73

    Katter vote

    77/72

    Abbott needs 6 labor members to be absent, either on official visits, Rudd as FA, Julia and others on heads of government Apec climate change G20 etc, birth of child, death in family, illness etc to win a no confidence motion.

    And no guarantee that other lib members would abstain or cross the floor if he tried it in those circumstances.

    Abbott, Truss, Entsch and Hockeys complete trashing of convention and fair play has been a step too far.

  49. [72 markjs
    Posted Friday, September 24, 2010 at 6:54 pm | Permalink
    markjs@3019 on Essential Research: 50-50 – The Poll Bludger

    my say@2854]

    thank you i do appreciate it.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 3 of 48
1 2 3 4 … 48