Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

Crikey reports the latest Essential Research survey has Labor moving to a 51-49 lead after three weeks at level pegging. Labor’s primary vote is up two points to 42 per cent while the Coalition’s is down two to 43 per cent – suggesting the two-party shift to Labor has been dampened by rounding – and the Greens are steady are on 9 per cent, weakness for the Greens being an unusual feature of recent Essential polling. We are also informed the national broadband network was supposed by 56 per cent of respondents and opposed by only 18 per cent; 63 per cent think it important the government move “quickly” on an ETS or carbon tax; and 69 per cent support legalising euthanasia for those with incurable disease and severe pain. Tony Abbott is found to be favoured over Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader by 26 per cent to 20 per cent, with support for Turnbull evidently being concentrated among non-Coalition voters.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,743 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. GP, The Opposition were “wreckers” even before the election, they just oppose because they are the Opposition, not because they have alternative idea, they want to get in government.

  2. [cos he had the name Liberal Party besides his name.

    But you’ve just been rabbiting on about how we all vote based along ethnic lines and now we vote for Liberals because their Liberals.

    The Lib’s could’ve pre-sdelected Fat Cat and they would’ve voted for him]

    [Diddums – the first sign of robust discusiion and you turn into a Crybaby who needs it’s ddummy.

    Stick to watching Play School and leavve politics to the adults.]

    Ain’t crying Frank just answering a question. Abuse isn’t robust discussion. If we left politics to you we’d all be walking around with our heads up our backsides.

  3. [Harse
    Posted Thursday, September 30, 2010 at 1:25 am | Permalink
    So you resort to abuse because your argument is completely without foundation. One shred of evidence please. Swing to Liberals in Hasluck 1.4%; in WA as a whole 3.1%

    My maths is good Frank. Better than yours.

    and of that 1.4% How many indigenous voters would’ve voted for Sharryn Jackson if Ken Wyatt or the other 2 indigenous Candidates weren’t on the Ballott Paper ?

  4. [Come on Harse, enough with the absolutes]

    Radguy, i’m merely putting Franks words back to him in order to show the ridiculousness of his absolutes. My contention is that people vote for very complex reasons. Franks is that we vote on ethnic lines, well blackfellas, Asians, greeks and Italians anyway. Not whitefellas though. Which is why i called his views racist.

  5. Anyway, goodnight children. I look forward to seeing your evidence that Aboriginal people voted for Ken Wyatt because he was black. Like most urban middle-class whites though you don’t know shit about Aboriginal people.

  6. Foolish debate, earlier. By whom, what, how Ken Wyatt won the majority vote.

    He did. So there we have it.

    Don’t hear you going on about, say, well anyone really, if only or blah, whatever.

  7. I don’t think Frank is being racist – he’d be muzzled by now.

    He is making the point that race is an issue for some voters, although perhaps his wording could have been better chosen.

  8. [ Radguy
    Posted Thursday, September 30, 2010 at 1:38 am | Permalink
    I don’t think Frank is being racist – he’d be muzzled by now.

    He is making the point that race is an issue for some voters, although perhaps his wording could have been better chosen.

    I’ll give you a better example – involving Ken’s Cousin Ben Wyatt.

    He was pre-selected and won former WA Premier’s Geoff Gallop’s Safe seat of Victoria Park – where he did so without his race being a factor.

  9. Harse

    i hate to bring chaos to your Frank/ harse exchange , when at moment there’s calm

    But you mis understand original Frank coment , where I think you think Frank thinks that Aboriginees think only to vote for Aboriginees= code Aboriginees is dumb

    so your outrage since is based on that false assume

    Lib white peoples voted for Lib Wyatt , Labor white peoples voted for ALP , ditto occured with alot of aboriginee voters (lib ones for Wyatt and Labor ones for ALP)

    however there is some marginal votes attracted to ethnic or religon of a cndidate , and Partys so select often for this idea

    Greens candidate in hasluck was a aboriginee , an Independant candidate was aborigine and th Liberal candidate was aboriginee….so your argument fails , ehthnic and religion WAS used by 3 Partys in Hasluck !!

    will tell ya why , there is a reasonable aboriginee vote in Hasluck incl Gosnells and Midlands

    now Partys dont pick a muslum cnidate in a reasonable numbered jewish electorate
    either That does not make jewish voters dumb for politcal Partys doing that , but cause there is some marginal votes (jewish in that case ) to be pinched that may normal gone to opposing Party if a muslum candidate had been pickd

    thats not racism , but 55/45 sway voters feeling more comfort with candidate having there background And Hasluck was thought to be marginal , and was

  10. [Posted Thursday, September 30, 2010 at 1:40 am | Permalink

    KW is a hero

    i actually cried when he spoke to kevvie re the apology

    but facts are facts

    as they were in pstr freds and neville B’s day

    Look, I’m not denying his achievement and good luck to him – I’m just pointing out the circumstances behind his election.

  11. [this may sound V petty, but a few ahem outlets said KW was wearing a “coonskin” coat]

    Gus, if Lady Gaga could wear a dress made of meat why couldn’t KW wear a coat made from cheese?

  12. scarps

    many a time have i had to give shiteating smile when told the old racist joke

    [whats the noise your bullbar makes when it hits an…]

    btw Halfarse, dont even try to cross the rubicon on racism

    O ******** K

  13. I don’t like fur used for clothes usually as I am an animal lover. However, given that KW probably ate some of the roo as part of the tradition, I was rapped to see a native in his traditional regalia taking his place in the house.

  14. [ Radguy
    Posted Thursday, September 30, 2010 at 2:04 am | Permalink
    I don’t like fur used for clothes usually as I am an animal lover. However, given that KW probably ate some of the roo as part of the tradition, I was rapped to see a native in his traditional regalia taking his place in the house.

    He was given the coat by some Elders last week.

  15. Rad

    coonskin is a USA term for raccoon


    raccoon = coconut= black on outside white on inside


    1 it was roo skin

    2. raccoon are native to the USA

    3 FMD are we that americanised tha “coonskin” is passe


  16. Just watched Malcolm, Lateline, subject, National Broadband and alleged costs.

    A friendly reminder of just how shaky a certain logic may be.

    “Turnbull under fire for $10m water deal

    Australian Broadcasting Corporation Broadcast: 19/11/2007 Reporter: Greg Hoy

    Malcolm Turnbull is fighting for his political life and now another battle is brewing; a $10 million grant given to a local company to investigate Russian rainfall technology has been questioned and criticised by water experts.

    So why has the Environment Minister taken such a gamble during an election?


    KERRY O’BRIEN: Few MPs would have worked harder to defend their seats at this election than Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull, whose blue ribbon Sydney seat of Wentworth is under siege not just from Labor but a range of environmental activists mostly coalescing around the Greens.

    But in the second week of the campaign, Mr Turnbull found the time to announce that the Government, already in caretaker mode, would bankroll to the tune of $10 million the investigation of an untried Russian technology that aims to trigger rainfall from the atmosphere, even when there are no clouds.

    It’s a decision that raised the eyebrows of water experts around the country.

    Mr Turnbull’s office says …

    It’s described as “rainfall enhancement technology” and is said to electro-charge the atmosphere to milk unseen moisture from the skies.

    Greg Hoy reports.

    GREG HOY: Call him the Rain Man, and how apt.

    Two weeks after the election was called, Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull bet $10 million taxpayers’ dollars, plus $1 million GST he could make it rain, even when there are no clouds.

    He did so by bankrolling research into a mysterious ionisation technology promoted by the Australian Rain Corporation.

    And after a commercial trial by a waste water centre at Queensland University left independent experts like emeritus professor Neville Fletcher of ANU a little unconvinced”.

    Cannot wait to see Malcolm defending or assaulting Carbon Tax, Credits or whatever they may be called, to be traded, at profit.

    At the expense of, as Tony would have it, the householder and taxpayer.

  17. Rad

    as the good xxxxxxxxxxxx says

    lets get it on

    time to make the franklin look like a walk in the park

    [the jedi,tho few, are manifestly powerful, add the Knights T, greenies and other fabianistics and Lo behold the field is ablaze with colour]

  18. Puff

    as a young lad, I hitched to sydneytown and walked in THE march, for the next six mths or so i was fully aware of where we were going

    time to mobilise the laddiatariat ( and of course the ladytariat)

    As an aside the fact the RAAF was used as a positive instrument of the state was a nice application of federal power

  19. I have no doubt that we will win this battle Gus, although I do worry about the future for journos, musos, artists, film-makers.

    Amateur only goes so far. We need lots of people doing these things and getting paid so they get good, and so we get good product.

    If the money has to come from the government, so be it. In terms of selecting talent, this is something governments are poor at – so leave the selection up to us.

  20. Rad


    in the fraser/howard interegnum we suffered the first blow from “rand’s -later rebadged as NeoCon dogma”

    we lost alotta ground


    As long as the Gr/La alliance/truce holds true , then we can retake the ground lost way back in ’72

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