Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

Crikey reports the latest Essential Research survey has Labor moving to a 51-49 lead after three weeks at level pegging. Labor’s primary vote is up two points to 42 per cent while the Coalition’s is down two to 43 per cent – suggesting the two-party shift to Labor has been dampened by rounding – and the Greens are steady are on 9 per cent, weakness for the Greens being an unusual feature of recent Essential polling. We are also informed the national broadband network was supposed by 56 per cent of respondents and opposed by only 18 per cent; 63 per cent think it important the government move “quickly” on an ETS or carbon tax; and 69 per cent support legalising euthanasia for those with incurable disease and severe pain. Tony Abbott is found to be favoured over Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader by 26 per cent to 20 per cent, with support for Turnbull evidently being concentrated among non-Coalition voters.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,743 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. [ Harse
    Posted Thursday, September 30, 2010 at 12:28 am | Permalink
    The Libs did exactly the same thing in Greenway, but this time with an Asian candidate

    I think this shows merely the lack of your own thinking. If Asians are going to vote for Asians, then unless there’s a majority of Aisans you’d best run a whitefella because surely whitefellas will vote for their own kind too. Perhaps they were good candidates whom their party felt had a chance of winning based on merit. Why didn’t the Libs run a Chinaman in Bennelong? Don’t tell me all those Asians voted for a whitey?
    ]

    If they did this time they would’ve got a BIGGER swing than with John Alexander.

    You do NOT underestimate the Ethnic vote.

  2. Gusface,

    [Scorps

    you and i have crossed swords in the past and said intemperate words, to which i can man up and apologise, ]

    Accepted. Two swords working together as one, are more formidable then on their own. Lets go get em! 😉

  3. Unfortunately, Frank has a point.

    Gus, that might be their problem – they’re putting their grub in the wrong end!

    Just like the South Park episode in many ways!

  4. Gus

    [harse

    steady old mate

    frank was drawing a valid comparison

    lets not go down the garden path]

    I don’t agree that it is a valid comparison. Frank should show some evidence as to his views, not just deny Aboriginal and other ethnic people the intelligence that they vote based on reasons other than race.

    And i’m not verballing you Frank. It’s my honest opinion. I don’t believe your views are malicious or that you hate people based on race, but that you ascribe things to people based on the fact of their ethnicity. Where is your evidence that the Aboriginal citizens of Hasluck voted along lines of race? And i use the term against you because you frequently make comments of this nature, just as you frequently use the word ‘girl’ as a term of abuse.

  5. harse

    I was not trying to deppreciate your comments,but more point out that wyatt via his obvious profile among the peeps guaranteed a certain cohort

    pls lets try and not pigeonhole any race of motive

    K wyatt is one cool dude

    the fibs got it right, but lets not gild the lilly?

  6. [If they did this time they would’ve got a BIGGER swing than with John Alexander.

    You do NOT underestimate the Ethnic vote]

    Show me your evidence Frank. In the NT Aboriginal people vote more for the ALP because they believe they are the party that best serves their interests.

    And perhaps the Libs didn’t run Wyatt in a safe seat because they believe people will vote along lines of race. It would certainly match many of their other thought patterns. Perhaps you have a lot more in common with the Libs than you think Frank.

  7. [ Harse
    Posted Thursday, September 30, 2010 at 12:34 am | Permalink
    Gus

    harse

    steady old mate

    frank was drawing a valid comparison

    lets not go down the garden path

    I don’t agree that it is a valid comparison. Frank should show some evidence as to his views, not just deny Aboriginal and other ethnic people the intelligence that they vote based on reasons other than race.

    And i’m not verballing you Frank. It’s my honest opinion. I don’t believe your views are malicious or that you hate people based on race, but that you ascribe things to people based on the fact of their ethnicity. Where is your evidence that the Aboriginal citizens of Hasluck voted along lines of race? And i use the term against you because you frequently make comments of this nature, just as you frequently use the word ‘girl’ as a term of abuse.
    ]

    Time to comed out of Green Fantasyland – People DO vote on Race and Nationality it’s a Fact – Explain why some people said after Ken Wyatt was elected that they wouldn’t have voted for him if they knew he weas indigenous ?

    Why d o you think Italians and Greeks are mainly pre-selected in areas with a high number of voters from that ethnic background ??

    But of course you prefer fairytales to political reality.

  8. GhostWhoVotes,

    [Greg Jericho (Grog’s Gamut) is currently still employed. From the Australian:

    THE public servant outed as anonymous blogger Grog’s Gamut has kept his job, but is in discussions over his future. Greg Jericho, outed as the man behind the political blog by The Australian, is still turning up to work in the wake of the furore. His department head Eleanor Dean said the department was continuing to hold discussions “with a view to determining whether the actions constitute a breach of the APS Code of Conduct”. ]

    What a grubby bunch of mongrels and what a low rent rag the OO had descended too now.

    I’d like to see every newsagency that sells that trash picketed with angry bloggers waving placards every day for a month and see how they like it.

    If nobody buys it, then there is no reason to bother publishing it is there. There would certainly be no reason for any business to bother advertising with it.

  9. [ Harse
    Posted Thursday, September 30, 2010 at 12:40 am | Permalink
    If they did this time they would’ve got a BIGGER swing than with John Alexander.

    You do NOT underestimate the Ethnic vote

    Show me your evidence Frank. In the NT Aboriginal people vote more for the ALP because they believe they are the party that best serves their interests.

    And perhaps the Libs didn’t run Wyatt in a safe seat because they believe people will vote along lines of race. It would certainly match many of their other thought patterns. Perhaps you have a lot more in common with the Libs than you think Frank.
    ]

    Verballing AGAIN.

    I said if the Libs were dinkum about running an indiginous on merit and talent they would run him in a safe Liberal seat – not a Marginal ALP Seat where he can siphon indiginous voters who would normally vote ALP.

    That is the reality.

    And note that there was also a Greens and Independent in Hasluck who were also indigineous ??

    Why didn’t all of the indigineous folk vote for them and not Ken ?

  10. [harse

    I was not trying to deppreciate your comments,but more point out that wyatt via his obvious profile among the peeps guaranteed a certain cohort

    pls lets try and not pigeonhole any race of motive

    K wyatt is one cool dude

    the fibs got it right, but lets not gild the lilly?]

    Gus, i remain unconvinced that people voted for Wyatt based on race. Aboriginal people are just as complex as any other, and are as likely to have voted against Wyatt because he’s Aboriginal as voted for him. I remember when Cathy Freeman won the Olympics, just as many blackfellas up here bagged her as supported her. The reality is that none of us really know.

  11. [And note that there was also a Greens and Independent in Hasluck who were also indigineous ??

    Why didn’t all of the indigineous folk vote for them and not Ken ?]

    Just the facts harsek, Just the facts

    [frank Debben style]

  12. [ I remember when Cathy Freeman won the Olympics, just as many blackfellas up here bagged her as supported her. The reality is that none of us really know.]

    FFO

    my brain just exploded at that point!!

    what are you trying say?

  13. [the fibs have gained the paradox of having both a senate and HoR indigenous first
    politics has strange bedfellows]

    Aboriginal pollies are a dime a dozen in the NT. I am disappointed the ALP didn’t take the opportunity to have one of them run instead of Hale in Solomon in 2007. Too late now as the ALP are a bit on the nose locally.

  14. No 3170

    That’s exactly what it means. The Opposition by default is the alternative government. It has alternative ideas and is opposed to much of the government’s mandate. If you guys hadn’t so badly flapped up last term, you might have a clear majority and wouldn’t be worried about ‘wreckers’.

  15. No 3170

    That’s exactly what it means. The Opposition by default is the alternative government. It has alternative ideas and is opposed to much of the government’s mandate. If you guys hadn’t so badly flapped up last term, you might have a clear majority and wouldn’t be worried about ‘wreckers’.

  16. Jonathan Green certainly “gets” it. About time Murdoch’s troglodytes did too.

    [Bullet by bullet, the bloggers win the war]

    [But maybe we should not be alarmed. Maybe we need not conflate the threats to the craft of journalism – real – with a sense of threat to the quality of public information – imagined. They may not be one and the same. Indeed, journalism has done little in the past decade or three to build trust in its audience, enhance its reputation or secure either its future or a sense of its necessity. As a million voices find an audience through the internet we have never been more blessed by intelligent analysis of events. And you don’t need journalists to do it.

    Reporting the breaking facts may also soon shake free of the journalistic stranglehold. Information is increasingly available through the same online revolution that has boosted the stocks of analysis and public discussion. The tools of coherent investigation are hardly unique to the craft of journalism.

    The earth is shifting.

    This is why blogs like Grog’s Gamut are a threat to the waning journalistic establishment, because lucid, well written, and free, they represent the future. The stuffy newsrooms that have barely adjusted their practices or culture since the turn of the twentieth century do not. But they will fight to the death. Bullet by bullet. ]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/09/28/3024137.htm?site=thedrum

  17. [ Gusface
    Posted Thursday, September 30, 2010 at 12:47 am | Permalink
    And note that there was also a Greens and Independent in Hasluck who were also indigineous ??

    Why didn’t all of the indigineous folk vote for them and not Ken ?

    Just the facts harsek, Just the facts]

    Gus,

    I said that – Hasluck had 3 indigenous candidates – the two female ones mentioned earlier swapped preferences with each other.

    Considering that Hasluck has a large indigineous vvote in areas such as Midland, Swan View, Gosnells and Kelmscott – That was the precise reason why Ken was pre-selected.

  18. Wow, just heard Milliband’s war critique on the drum. AWESOME!

    Let’s hope this perspective can permeate through Aus and USA.

    Nutshell – Non UN sanctified military intervention is a no go, which is what I have felt all along.

    UN cooperation for future interventions will come when the capitalists are properly leashed.

  19. [Verballing AGAIN.

    I said if the Libs were dinkum about running an indiginous on merit and talent they would run him in a safe Liberal seat – not a Marginal ALP Seat where he can siphon indiginous voters who would normally vote ALP]

    Simply not true. I don’t know the pre-selection process there but i’m sure there a range of reasons why. My point is not that the Liberals believe it would be a successful move to have Wyatt in Hasluck, but your contention that Aboriginal people voted for him because he was black.

    [And note that there was also a Greens and Independent in Hasluck who were also indigineous ??

    Why didn’t all of the indigineous folk vote for them and not Ken]

    You can’t argue Aboriginal people not voting for some Aboriginal people to prove your point that they vote based on ethnicity.

  20. [my brain just exploded at that point!!

    what are you trying say?]

    That Aboriginal people are very diverse in their views. Just as whitefellas frequently bag whitefellas, so do blackfellas bag other blackfellas. I’m pretty sure the Cape York mob on the steps of parliament house today supporting the Wild Rivers legislation ain’t gonna vote for Noel Pearson.

  21. [That was the precise reason why Ken was pre-selected]

    But Frank do you have any evidence that that was why Aboriginal people voted for him? Do you even have any evidence that Aboriginal people did vote for him?

  22. Here is a reference to the loss of a vote (a confidence vote no less) by the newly installed 1975 Fraser minority (and temporary) government in the HOR.

    “The House agreed to a motion expressing its lack of confidence in
    the newly-designated prime minister and requesting the Speaker to ask
    the Governor-General to have Whitlam again form a government.”

    page 107 (towards the bottom) of

    Bach, Stanley. and Australia. Parliament. Senate. Platypus and parliament : the Australian Senate in theory and practice / Stanley Bach Dept. of the Senate Parliament House, Canberra, A.C.T. : 2003

    available from the Parliament House Library online.

    http://www.aph.gov.au/senate/pubs/platparl/contents/report.pdf

  23. [Harse
    Posted Thursday, September 30, 2010 at 1:00 am | Permalink
    That was the precise reason why Ken was pre-selected

    But Frank do you have any evidence that that was why Aboriginal people voted for him? Do you even have any evidence that Aboriginal people did vote for him?
    ]

    you don’y get it as usual.

    People vote for someone out of loyalty and solidarity to one’s ethnic or cultural group.

    This happened with Ken Wyatt.

    Deal with it.

  24. [That’s exactly what it means. The Opposition by default is the alternative government. It has alternative ideas and is opposed to much of the government’s mandate. If ]

    IF is a great poem

    eric bogle had a great song

    [if wishes were fishes,we would all be at sea]

    Is that a Fib policy, candles?

  25. Someone should trademark Boomerang, and stop OS versions being called that.

    Same as with vino – we can’t sell sparkling pinot chard as champagne even here!

  26. [Why do you think he got pre-selected in Hasluck – cos he had Talent alone ??]

    Of course not – He was there to take votes from Labor from indigenous voters – FACT.

    You don’t believe me cos it doesn’t suit your little fairyland where everyone is Kum By Ya

    People vote on Tribal lines – and if a Countryman or person who is of the same background as you – you will more likely to support them out of loyalty.]

    Frank you’re as thick as four bricks. If people vote along ‘tribal lines’ then won’t the whitefellas in Hasluck have swarmed to the ALP because they couldn’t stand voting for some other race? You obviously know little about Aboriginal politics and people if you think they all just rock up and vote for their man. They don’t do that in Arnhem land let alone suburban Perth. And Frank i vote for who best matches my world view, not for someone from the same background or out of loyalty. Aboriginal people are fully functioning adults with very complex world-views, not simpletons who will vote for the person from the same ‘tribe’ as themselves.

  27. Harse, unfortunately our country panders to these base instincts.

    If we didn’t, we’d have a green government, or a labor government with greens policies.

  28. [People vote for someone out of loyalty and solidarity to one’s ethnic or cultural group]

    So how did Ken Wyatt get elected with all those whitefellas voting for the white ALP candidate Frank? Although she was a woman, so the men must have been conflicted. Was there any white male candidate Frank. Maybe they split the vote with the white women and that’s how Wyatt got in. Do you have one shred of evidence of how the Aboriginal people in Hasluck voted Frank?

  29. harse
    [So how did Ken Wyatt get elected with all those whitefellas voting for the white ALP candidate Frank? Although she was a woman, so the men must have been conflicted. Was there any white male candidate Frank. Maybe they split the vote with the white women and that’s how Wyatt got in. Do you have one shred of evidence of how the Aboriginal people in Hasluck voted Frank?]

    did you get the above from the house unamerican activities cheatsheet

    or via R. Andrew?

    just curious

  30. [ Gusface
    Posted Thursday, September 30, 2010 at 1:15 am | Permalink
    harse

    So how did Ken Wyatt get elected with all those whitefellas voting for the white ALP candidate Frank? Although she was a woman, so the men must have been conflicted. Was there any white male candidate Frank. Maybe they split the vote with the white women and that’s how Wyatt got in. Do you have one shred of evidence of how the Aboriginal people in Hasluck voted Frank?

    did you get the above from the house unamerican activities cheatsheet

    or via R. Andrew?

    just curious
    ]

    More like from the same place Truthy goes to 🙂

  31. [ Harse
    Posted Thursday, September 30, 2010 at 1:12 am | Permalink
    People vote for someone out of loyalty and solidarity to one’s ethnic or cultural group

    So how did Ken Wyatt get elected with all those whitefellas voting for the white ALP candidate Frank? Although she was a woman, so the men must have been conflicted. Was there any white male candidate Frank. Maybe they split the vote with the white women and that’s how Wyatt got in. Do you have one shred of evidence of how the Aboriginal people in Hasluck voted Frank?]

    Did you mnotice the Margin ??

    Just over 1,000 votes.

    Think about it.

    Or is maths not one of your strong points in Thruthyland ?

  32. [did you get the above from the house unamerican activities cheatsheet

    or via R. Andrew?]

    I don’t know what you’re talking about Gus.

    But logically if we vote on ethnic lines then why did Wyatt get so many votes from whitefellas?

  33. [ Harse
    Posted Thursday, September 30, 2010 at 1:20 am | Permalink
    did you get the above from the house unamerican activities cheatsheet

    or via R. Andrew?

    I don’t know what you’re talking about Gus.

    But logically if we vote on ethnic lines then why did Wyatt get so many votes from whitefellas?
    ]

    cos he had the name Liberal Party besides his name.

    The Lib’s could’ve pre-sdelected Fat Cat and they would’ve voted for him 🙂

  34. So you resort to abuse because your argument is completely without foundation. One shred of evidence please. Swing to Liberals in Hasluck 1.4%; in WA as a whole 3.1%

    My maths is good Frank. Better than yours.

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